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As Corbin Burnes understood it, the Brewers made the argument that he was "in the forefront of the reason why we didn't make the postseason last year" during the hearing earlier this week. That was the big takeaway from his polite but angry account of the process of salary arbitration, delivered to reporters at the team's spring training complex Thursday morning. Whether the team intended to argue that, exactly, will remain unknowable to us, because the hearing itself will not become a matter of public record. All that really matters, though, is that that is what Burnes heard.
This, as many have said, is the gigantic risk a team takes by going to arbitration with a player who is critical to their short- and long-term prospects for success. While the difference between the figures at which each side filed (nearly $750,000) is more significant than the general narrative has allowed, it's now likely that they'll spend more than that amount cleaning up the mess they've made. It will cost them incrementally more to extend some other player, or to convince a free agent to join their cutthroat gang. It will hurt their image with fans, many of whom already resented the thought process behind the Josh Hader trade and the general approach to this past offseason. They'll lose money, and they might well lose Burnes.
Worse, the case is grossly unfounded. Burnes did struggle down the stretch last year, with a 4.27 ERA in his final 10 outings, but the team went 6-4 in those games, and he was more uneven than truly bad.
| Date | Opp | Rslt | Inngs | Dec | DR | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | ERA | Pit | WPA | cWPA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | LAD | W,5-3 | GS-6 | W(9-5) | 4 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2.48 | 103 | 0.095 | 0.06% | |
| Aug 23 | @ | LAD | L,1-10 | GS-4 | L(9-6) | 4 | 3.2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2.66 | 81 | -0.293 | -0.18% |
| Aug 29 | PIT | W,7-5 | GS-6 | 5 | 6.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2.84 | 102 | -0.327 | -0.20% | ||
| Sep 3 | @ | ARI | W,8-6 | GS-6 | 4 | 5.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3.02 | 110 | -0.269 | -0.15% | |
| Sep 8(1) | SFG | W,2-1 | GS-8 | W(10-6) | 4 | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2.93 | 100 | 0.437 | 0.23% | |
| Sep 14 | @ | STL | L,1-4 | GS-7 | L(10-7) | 5 | 7.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2.97 | 107 | -0.080 | -0.06% |
| Sep 19 | NYM | L,2-7 | GS-6 | L(10-8) | 4 | 5.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3.12 | 100 | -0.203 | -0.16% | |
| Sep 24 | @ | CIN | W,10-2 | GS-7 | W(11-8) | 4 | 6.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3.11 | 102 | 0.139 | 0.13% |
| Sep 30 | MIA | W,1-0 | GS-8 | W(12-8) | 5 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2.98 | 103 | 0.563 | 0.66% | |
| Oct 5 | ARI | L,2-4 | GS-3 | 4 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2.94 | 40 | 0.152 | 0.21% | ||
| 20-13 | W-L:12-8 | 4.7 | 202.0 | 144 | 73 | 66 | 51 | 243 | 23 | 13 | 2.94 | 3274 | 3.173 | 2.74% |
Generated 2/16/2023.
Note that there are two games in that stretch against the juggernaut Dodgers, one against the Cardinals, and another against the Mets. There are also two games Burnes won virtually singlehandedly, shielding a weary bullpen by not only shutting down the opponent but doing so for eight innings while the offense did the bare minimum. He increased the team's Championship Win Probability Added even during the toughest stretch of his season, and the fact that he wore down slightly can't be fairly held against him under the circumstances. He bore up under the weight placed upon him precisely the way an ace ought to do.
Next time he's asked to pitch deep into September and push his odometer past 200 innings in pursuit of a playoff spot, he's likely to be better able to sustain himself. He'd never gotten the chance to do it before, thanks to the six-man rotation in 2021 and the stunted 2020 season. Surely, he learned much from the minor struggles he endured late in 2022. The Brewers probably should have considered that and given him credit for it, rather than viewing a minor underperformance as an opportunity to seize leverage and cancel out one minimum-salary roster slot by inflicting a Pyrrhic victory on themselves and their best player.
Here are Burnes's remarks, with a hat tip to MLB.com beat writer Adam McCalvy.
Every fear that going to an arbitration hearing against Corbin Burnes could harm his relationship with the Brewers was founded.
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 16, 2023
“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired],” Burnes said. pic.twitter.com/Xv8DFyiKde
We're eager to hear from you. This kind of grievance can be overblown, and the Crew could turn and spend their savings from this win on further reinforcement of the bullpen. Is there any way they can salvage this, in your eyes?
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