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We should start by listing the locks for the Brewers’ relief corps to open the season. Devin Williams, Matt Bush, Peter Strzelecki, and Hoby Milner have earned virtually guaranteed spots on the roster, thanks to their track records and recent performances. Milner’s left-handedness does half the work for him, in that regard.
Less obvious (but nearly as certain) is Bryse Wilson, whom the team acquired via trade this winter and who will be the subject of one of our pieces next week on the club’s biggest X-factors for 2023. He has no minor-league options remaining, and the team targeted him because they think he can be effective. That makes five, and the sixth slot will be reserved for Adrian Houser, assuming that Wade Miley is healthy and solid enough to claim the fifth starting job come Opening Day.
That leaves two spaces in the eight-man bullpen, and there are at least three serious candidates for the job: Javy Guerra, Joel Payamps, and Gus Varland. Let’s touch on each, and why they’re in the mix.
Guerra, like Wilson, came to the Crew via trade this offseason, though the move was a bit less proactive. The Rays needed to clear space on their 40-man roster, and Guerra became a casualty of that crunch. The converted shortstop, now 27, just moved to the mound in 2019, and he has more capacity for improvement and reinvention than most pitchers his age.
That said, the Brewers snagged him because they already see upside in what he does. In the minors with the Padres in 2021, he found more riding action on his four-seam fastball, and the Rays helped him lock in that adjustment in 2022. With his short stature and low arm slot, he creates the same formidable vertical approach angle (VAA) that Strzelecki, Freddy Peralta, and other Brewers do, and the team will try to help him attack the top of the zone with the four-seamer.
If he can do so, he’ll be a versatile weapon in relief, because his high-90s sinker and sharp slider make him tough on right-handed batters already. Being able to swap out the sinker for the four-seamer against lefties would open things up for him. The stakes are high for him in camp, though, because he’s out of minor-league options. If he isn’t on the active roster or the injured list, he’s unlikely to stay in the Brewers organization.
The same is true of Payamps, who was a throw-in in the trade that netted Milwaukee William Contreras. A much more traditional reliever in terms of size, stuff, and career arc, Payamps still has some unique traits, too. He is, nominally, a four-pitch reliever, which is rare in the modern game. In truth, though, he mostly mixes four-seamers and changeups against lefties, with a smattering of sliders; and sinkers and sliders against righties, with a smattering of four-seamers.
Payamps and Guerra both have messy deliveries, but Payamps has already cleaned his up quite a bit, relative to a few years ago, so it’s unlikely his mechanics will suddenly take a turn for the gorgeous. He did firm up and reshape his slider a bit toward the end of 2022, though. It’s more of a sweeper, if the new form he found in Oakland can be sustained, and that would make it a better partner to his sinker against righties.
While both Payamps and Guerra are out of options, Varland technically has all of his remaining. Alas, that’s only because he had yet to be added to the Dodgers’ 40-man rotation, which is why the Brewers were able to pluck him in the Rule 5 Draft. The effect is the same as if he were out of options, from the team’s side: If he doesn’t make the roster, he departs the org.
Varland was a starter until the early part of 2022, when he stalled out in that role in Double A and was moved to the bullpen. He proved the quality of his stuff down the stretch, with 46 strikeouts and just eight walks in a little over 30 innings after July 1. He still allowed too many hits and runs, though, which made not protecting him a fairly easy call for Los Angeles.
Still, there’s upside here. Of the three candidates for the jobs, it’s Varland who will probably throw hardest this season. It’s also Varland who has the cleanest and most Breweresque mechanics, although the tempo of his delivery can get him into some trouble and compromise his deception.
fun morning at starters with pro guys from minnesota
— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) January 20, 2023
two former teammates in the dodgers org squared off for live abs:
gus varland vs michael busch
varland sat 93-94 & flashed a biting slider and changeup
busch —hit 32 hrs (aa+aaa) in ‘22– in his 1st live abs of the yr pic.twitter.com/rmlbZ62qFV
Beyond these three lie still more possibilities, including some delightfully weird ones. Could Alex Claudio really force his way back onto the Brewers, in 2023? Could Lucas Erceg, rather than Guerra, be the converted position player who carves out a role? Could Ethan Small show such upside in shorter bursts that the team eschews the chance to keep him stretched out as depth for the rotation?
As fun as those are, though, they’re unlikely options. It’s much more realistic, and probably better, to hope for two of Guerra, Payamps, and Varland to step up and become reliable middle relievers. Each has so many intriguing questions surrounding them, though, that the spring really will determine who stays and who goes. Let the debate over which should be which begin.
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