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  • Brewers' Outfield Has Questions, May Require Moves in Free Agency


    Tim Muma

    The Milwaukee Brewers have already had a busy offseason, and more moves are coming. While they could roll into Opening Day with the current position players, the outfield has questions and is far from settled. Fortunately, there's plenty of time to improve and solidify this part of the roster.

    Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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    There's an exciting mix of players for the Milwaukee Brewers to choose a core outfield but they need to create the right combination of offensive production and defensive reliability. Part of that stems from the possible reliance on more than one rookie regularly in the upcoming season. So while the Brewers have internal decisions to make, they also should be looking to add one more outfield alternative from outside the organization.

    When GM Matt Arnold traded right fielder Hunter Renfroe to the Anaheim Angels, it left a giant hole in the lineup. Arnold replaced that divot with Jesse Winker in a swap with the Seattle Mariners, but that wasn't an equal replacement as Winker bats from the left side and is a sizable dropoff defensively. It's likely Winker occupies the designated hitter spot most nights against right-handed pitchers, but that still leaves right field open and a lineup slot versus lefties. Here's a look at the group Milwaukee could choose from internally to be on the 26-man roster:

    • Christian Yelich (L)
      • Leadoff hitter with quality on-base skills and hard contact (.355 OBP, 111 OPS+ in 2022)
      • Average-to-below-average defensive skills but has one of the weakest arms in the outfield
    • Jesse Winker (L)
      • Among the worst defenders last season with a bad arm and -16 defensive runs saved (last among outfielders with 200 innings played)
      • MVP-level offense against right-handed pitching in his career (.388 OBP, .885 OPS) but struggles vs. lefties
    • Tyrone Taylor (R)
      • Quality outfielder who can play all three positions and provides decent power (.448 SLG past two seasons)
      • Best suited as a fourth outfielder playing a few times a week due to poor plate discipline (102 K, 22 BB in 2022)
    • Garrett Mitchell (L)
      • Played only 28 MLB games last season, with up-and-down results
      • Showed off speed and defensive ability in center field and posted an .832 OPS, but he looked overmatched at times and averaged one strikeout per game
    • Sal Frelick (L)
      • Brewers' number two prospect with plate discipline (.403 OBP in minors in 2022), highly-rated hit tool, and top speed
      • Questions about him in center field and little in-game power
    • Joey Wiemer (R)
      • Brewers' number three prospect with a power bat (21 HR, 34 doubles in minors last season), strong arm, and sneaky speed
      • High strikeout guy with few walks and average defense

    Each five-man option has its concerns and apparent warts. Yelich, Winker, and Taylor are locks on the 26-man roster if they're with the organization. That leaves only three rookies to choose from (Mitchell still has rookie status) for the remaining two slots. Having two rookies on the big league roster as outfielders are problematic for two reasons:

    1) It's difficult to rely on their bats for consistent production in the lineup (and possibly three rookies with infielder Brice Turang).
    2) If one of them is not playing much, their development is stunted, and they would be better off getting regular at-bats in the minor leagues.

    But let's say the Brewers roll the dice and decide the best route. Which two guys fortify the team better? Mitchell and Frelick are left-handed and profile as speed and contact guys overpower. If you keep both of them, you have four left-handed hitting outfielders with only Taylor as a right-handed stick. Not ideal since the Brewers should limit Winker's appearances against southpaws. So could Wiemer, a power bat pegged for a corner spot, pair with one of the lefty center fielders? Wiemer's hit tool is the question, and if he struggles, will he get the at-bats he needs to figure out MLB pitching?

    In either scenario, but especially if Milwaukee kept the two lefty bats, Taylor would see a lot more action in 2023. The more at-bats Taylor receives, the more he scuffles. Taylor's best output comes in limited action against carefully selected pitchers. For example, in 2021, he had 271 plate appearances and posted a .247/.321/.457 slash line. In 2022, with 405 plate appearances, those numbers dipped to .233/.286/.442.

    All this leads to exploring the Brewers' options outside of the club. There are still a few viable free agents and possible trade targets. Assuming Milwaukee isn't getting a top-tier hitter, the new acquisition should hit right-handed to provide additional coverage versus lefty pitching.

    Trade Candidates

    Anthony Santander (Baltimore Orioles): Santander blasted 33 HR last season for a 117 OPS+. The switch-hitter was on the trade block at last year's deadline before hitting 14 homers in the final two months. He's been a solid right fielder in his career, as well. Baltimore has up-and-coming outfielders and needs pitching badly. Could Adrian Houser and a minor-league arm be enough?

    Ramón Laureano (Oakland A's): The Brewers were mentioned as a destination for Laureano at the trade deadline, and Oakland is dumping veterans left and right. He had a rough 2022 but owned a career .324 OBP and .444 SLG while playing half his games in a vast pitcher's park. With a 111 OPS+ in 2021, his bat could reawaken in Milwaukee, and he brings plus defense to right field, as well. You would think Oakland would be happy with a couple of prospects.

    Free Agents

    Wil Myers: He has had only one season with an OPS+ below 108 since 2015. Myers' playing time was severely limited in 2022, and he could be drawn to more opportunity in Milwaukee, where he could easily pop 20 home runs playing half his games in American Family Field instead of cavernous Petco Park. His right field defense is inconsistent but not terrible, and he could help with coverage at first base.

    AJ Pollock: He took a step back last season but had a tremendous 134 OPS+ in 2021. You wouldn't expect that in 2023 at age 35, but he can still provide value at the plate and in the field. As a bonus, Pollock crushes left-handers, including a .619 slugging percentage and .935 OPS last season. He lost a step as a center fielder but would also play well in right with a strong arm.

    Adding one of these for players gives the lineup more punch and reliability from the outfield, especially against lefties. It would also allow one of the rookies to start regularly with the Brewers while the other two continue to hone their skills on the farm. It's also possible that the Brewers trade Taylor or one of the youngsters is traded for another significant piece, but that's for another article. Who would your five-man outfield group be for Opening Day 2023?

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    5 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

    A few things here...

    1) I was being a bit hyperbolic in saying fewer than 4 runs per game, but I believe that regular lineup would be bottom third.

    2) I appreciate projections, that that is all they are. And especially for rookies/guys with 1 year experience, there's a fair amount of pure faith in non-MLB performance. I would be surprised if Mithell and Turang reached 99 wRC+ and 94 wRC+ respectively. And if you want to go with Steamer wRC+, Santander is 115 and Brandon Drury is 105. With a window to win now, I'd like those upgrades.

    3) I'd also warn about utilizing 1 or 2 stats to determine how well an offense works/fits as a whole. By some measures last season, the Brewers offense should have been seen as a reliable, dangerous group. However, they were wildly inconsistent and it felt like the "mix" of players didn't work for some reason. Hard to measure or evaluate, but I think there is something bigger to lineup construction.

    Again, not saying I am right or anyone is wrong, just my thoughts on the whole idea of adding to the position players.

    The Brewers offense was 6th in 4+ and 5+ run games and T-9th in fewest times held to 2 runs or less. Hard to be much more consistent than that. Even the Yankees weren't that consistent, and they were the only other team to average 5+ runs.

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    12 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

    I am trying to understand your math. Mitchell/Taylor/Frelick are making the minimum (I think it's $711k) which equals $2.13M.  Winker is $8.25M and Yelich $22M. That's about $32.5M. The estimates that I have seen for Woody ($11.25)/Burnes ($12)/Adames ($9.25) equal about $32.5M also. On the high side that's $65M. That would leave (assuming $120M is the is correct) $55M for 18 players or about $3.1M per guy. I'm pretty sure Contreras is at the minimum and if Turang/Strzelecki/Cousins make the team (which looks highly probable) they are at the minimum too. I think there would still be room to add a reasonable 3B if one comes available and a little help in the pen. 

    Yelich is making $27 million I will attach a site that details his contract.  Deferred salary counts!!!  Also Mitchell/Frelick are first round picks with major league contracts doubt they make league minimums as is Taylor who is entering his 3rd year.  Also don't forget the dead money of the Boxburger buyout and the Wong buy in.  Plus the money traded for Toro.  How come you don't include the salaries of Luis Urias, Devin Williams, Rowdy Tellez, Lauer, Houser?  Besides all three of Woody, Burnes, and Adames will get more than those low numbers especially Burnes and his 200 plus inning and league leading strikeouts.

     

    Christian Yelich Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

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    On 12/16/2022 at 12:22 PM, Tim Muma said:

    Each person is completely entitled to their opinions and we can't prove that anyone is wrong or right here because we can't play out the season in different ways. So for the "let all the kids play" crowd, you are comfortable with the following lineup, when you're in a competitive window with one of the best rotations in baseball?

    1 - Yelich LF
    2 - Adames SS
    3 - Winker DH
    4 - Contreras C
    5 - Tellez 1B
    6 - Urias 3B/2B
    7 - Frelick RF
    8 - Mitchell CF
    9 - Turang 2B/3B

    And against LHP? Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Yelich, Winker, Tellez all LH.  Taylor, Brosseau the only 2 right-handed options. Toro a switch-hitter.  I don't know. Looks like less than 4 runs per game to me. And with an injury or two, big dropoff. I just think you need to trickle in the youngsters, like they did with Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, and Hart.

    I'd probably have Frelick 9 Mitchell 7 and Turang 8.

    You said it on vs LHP, Taylor and Brosseau, swap out 1 Lefty Of and Turang.  If you can't see 4runs a game, you're not seeing the importance to Winker over McCutchen. Contreras over any Catcher.  Mitchell/Frelick over Cain/Davis. We add that Turner fella you're taking the pressure off Turang's PA load as well as Hiura's 3TO style.  

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    The opening day lineup is going to have Yelich and Taylor in the outfield.  The third spot will be manned by a rookie to be determined.  I think Mitchell is most likely set as the 4th outfielder.  When he's not starting, he's a defensive replacement/pinch runner.  I think Frelick is the most likely to start the season as a regular.  The question is whether it's Taylor in CF and Frelick in RF or vice versa.  Winker plays LF only on days when Yelich needs a rest.  That's probably 30-35 OF starts for Winker.  Wiemer is the wild card.  I think they want him to force them to call him up at midseason.  That could force Taylor to the bench or either Mitchell or Frelick back down.  Adjustments will be made depending on performance but it's not like they don't have options for different combinations.  They'll probably sign another veteran outfielder on a AAA deal for insurance too.

    In short, I don't see a big deal for an outfielder.

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    On 12/17/2022 at 6:10 PM, JohnBriggs12 said:

    The opening day lineup is going to have Yelich and Taylor in the outfield.  The third spot will be manned by a rookie to be determined.  I think Mitchell is most likely set as the 4th outfielder.  When he's not starting, he's a defensive replacement/pinch runner.  I think Frelick is the most likely to start the season as a regular.  The question is whether it's Taylor in CF and Frelick in RF or vice versa.  Winker plays LF only on days when Yelich needs a rest.  That's probably 30-35 OF starts for Winker.  Wiemer is the wild card.  I think they want him to force them to call him up at midseason.  That could force Taylor to the bench or either Mitchell or Frelick back down.  Adjustments will be made depending on performance but it's not like they don't have options for different combinations.  They'll probably sign another veteran outfielder on a AAA deal for insurance too.

    In short, I don't see a big deal for an outfielder.

    If anything, I think the biggest deal the Brewers will make involving an OF will be the team trading Winker for someone 2-3 months in as Joey Wiemer forces the issue.

     

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    11 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

    If anything, I think the biggest deal the Brewers will make involving an OF will be the team trading Winker for someone 2-3 months in as Joey Wiemer forces the issue.

     

    Potentially if Winker is struggling (he may not make opening day yet actually) but He's such an offensive upgrade if he's hitting even vaguely like his career numbers that its probably more likely that Mitchell or Frelick, if under performing or have some work ons, drop down to AAA

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    15 minutes ago, jakedood said:

    Potentially if Winker is struggling (he may not make opening day yet actually) but He's such an offensive upgrade if he's hitting even vaguely like his career numbers that its probably more likely that Mitchell or Frelick, if under performing or have some work ons, drop down to AAA

    I think it could happen either way.

    Mitchell's been consistent in his career - about a .370 OBP, some serious speed, etc. Frelick is pretty similar. Both would provide excellent defense, and could be spelled by Tyrone Taylor against lefties. Wiemer's simply produced and has one of the highest offensive ceilings save for Chourio.

    If Winker does well, the Crew can flip him for some prospects. If he's struggling, they can DFA him and call Wiemer up. The future OF could very well be Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Taylor as 4th OF and Yelich as full-time DH.

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    I think there's an underestimation of what Winker doing well looks like, as potentially the best hitter the Brewers have, not saying he will but he has the ceiling of a 900 OPS guy if he stays healthy

    That guy doesnt get traded if you're in contention, so a lot of factors may come into this, but i think its also likely that Mitchell isnt going to be a high 700 OPS, his SO rate is very high and hits a lot more IF ground balls than Frelick has, though with better defense and speed. 

    We'll see how it pans out but it is fairly common for hitters to go down for a while to keep getting AB's and adjust to a few things for their return to Major league level

     

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