Brewers' Outfield Has Questions, May Require Moves in Free Agency

It would be cool if they just went forward with the guys they have now. Maybe option one of Wiemer or Frelick to the minors. Kind of like when they decided to just keep Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta in 18/19. I understand why they wouldn't though, because that's a bigger risk. They will probably at least grab a right fielder

Play the rookies.  Taylor is more than a capable backup but start the rookies who have a much higher ceiling.  The Brewers likely have all of their outfielders on the team already.  Winker, Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, and Taylor should be it maybe some triple A veteran depth but with the substantial cost of the starting pitching, shortstop and leftfield positions I would think there will be any more done.  Last year, Cleveland was more than a formidable team starting a plethora of rookies.  Every major leaguer was a rookie at one time, so I don't understand this articles argument that rookies are bad because they are unknown.  

Winker is going to have a hard time being a frequent DH when it’s likely occupied by Yelich 2-3 times per week and Hiura the rest

I don't recall any of the pundits talking about the virtues of a Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, or Willy Adames.  I am sure they all down-graded Peralta on his size and lack of fastball velocity.  I don't give much thought to a Law as he has been misevaluating prospects for over 20 years now.  He has missed on a number of top 10 prospects, and he is always biased to the big teams.  Most of the pundits tend to overlook small market talents all the time.  There is a reason none of the so-called prospect evaluators are not employed by teams but by the media.  I would be careful about basing my evaluation of the Brewers triple A talent based on their assumptions.  The rookies combined defense alone will be better than last year.  All can run not many balls will be touching the ground given the quality of the Brewers starting pitching.  At this point, the Brewers priority should be on the relievers market.

40 minutes ago, DHonks said:

Winker is going to have a hard time being a frequent DH when it’s likely occupied by Yelich 2-3 times per week and Hiura the rest

Except I don't think that is going to happen.

I think Yelich will still be our full time LF, and might DH 1 or 2 times per week max.  

I think Hiura is a goner, via trade.  Doubt we get much in return, but I think they are going to send him packing.

I think Winker was acquired as our normal DH, since he is a liability in the field.  He may get occasional starts in the OF, but no way is that going to be a daily thing.

As much as I want Hiura to be in the mix, if the plan is to use him like we did last year, there is no point in keeping him around.  Trade him to a team that can afford to play him.

1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

I'm all for giving young guys a shot, but like @Brock Beauchampnoted, there is enormous risk to the team's success to go rookie heavy. If you think the Brewers can be contenders with their pitching, you can't plan to rely on 2-3 rookies regularly in your lineup unless they are all can't miss, top 25 in baseball hitters. You will be lucky to win 83 games if ALL goes right.

For me?  I would start Freick in CF and us Turang as a super utility guy getting maybe 2-3 starts a week. Have Mitchell & Wiemer ready to go in AAA in case of injury or ineffectiveness. Too often, people just think the 26 guys who start in the big leagues will just play the whole season. Bring in a veteran outfielder to keep depth ready to perform. If you have all your top guys up & you need to go to the minors later, now there is a big dropoff.

 

So when would Mitchell and Wiemer get to the big leagues if Frelick does well? Next year you wouldn't want to start a rookie in RF because the CF only had a year's experience and Turang might be starting somewhere. The following year you probably have Chuirio in the mix too. I believe they could easily start 2 rookies in the OF becasue they have Taylor as a safety net. If they both fail, there is always outfielders available plus one of the three will still be in AAA.

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I added the Steamer projected wRC+ for 2023, that looks like more than four runs per game to me.

Last year the Brewers 4.48 R/G ranked 10th vs a league average of 4.28 R/G. Only seven teams - KCR (3.95), LAA (3.85), WAS (3.72), PIT (3.65), MIA (3.62), OAK (3.51) and DET (3.44) came in under four runs per game.

I still think there is room to add one more lefty masher to the Corner/DH mix to round things out and trust Arnie to add one before spring training rolls around.

Exactly. The Brewers almost always make a signing later in the offseason, when the market has died down and they're able to find better value (Grandal, Wong, JBJ, McCutchen, etc.). I see no reason to think this offseason will be any different. 

1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

Each person is completely entitled to their opinions and we can't prove that anyone is wrong or right here because we can't play out the season in different ways. So for the "let all the kids play" crowd, you are comfortable with the following lineup, when you're in a competitive window with one of the best rotations in baseball?

1 - Yelich LF
2 - Adames SS
3 - Winker DH
4 - Contreras C
5 - Tellez 1B
6 - Urias 3B/2B
7 - Frelick RF
8 - Mitchell CF
9 - Turang 2B/3B

And against LHP? Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Yelich, Winker, Tellez all LH.  Taylor, Brosseau the only 2 right-handed options. Toro a switch-hitter. 

I know many people think he will be gone but Keston Hiura is still on the roster. Until he isn't, you have to assume he will be on the team. (Yes I am aware he did not hit LHP well last year but his whole stat line was odd)

The only way the Brewers sign an OF is if some player wasn't getting squat in salary offers, and we swoop in. But the guy would know he's just a placeholder for one of the rookies, so it would be a really desperate guy, possibly looking for a "prove me" season to get a good salary in 2024.
I'm not convinced the Brewers won't go with Blake Perkins on the O.D. roster, keeping either Mitchell or Frelick in AAA until after they would disqualify for rookie status in 2024. I think they're that cheap.

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Evaluators are often wrong but they're still more well-informed about prospects in the broadest sense of the term (as in all 30 teams) and they have no personal incentive to fudge the numbers one direction over the other (well, the good analysts, anyway).

As for Law, he's one of the better analysts out there. I'd put his track record against almost anyone. He's overly opinionated and a bit of a jerk at times but he's also good at his job. When he speaks, I tend to listen because there's useful information in there.

And anyway, I clearly said it was possible for the Brewers' rookies to all burst onto the scene but it's also unlikely and a pretty bad Plan A going into the season, in my opinion. That kind of decision is operating without a safety net.

All media employed evaluators have a personal incentive.  It's called a job.  That is why the pundits focus on the big teams.  Most of their viewers are from those markets.  Also, the more controversial the pundit the more views his/her articles receive.  They are the most biased opinions out there and for good reason to think anybody in the media is virtuous writing without a personal incentive is plain naive.  

Look at it this way.  The Milwaukee Brewer will spend about $120 million on a roster.  As of now the five players:  Mitchell, Taylor, Frelick, Yelich, and Winker contribute around $40 million.  That is not counting anything else.  The Brewers need to find another 20 players or so that will cost around $80 million.  Given Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames will likely net another $40 million that will leave $40-45 million for the other 15 players.  So, do you really think the Brewers ought to spend more money on outfield depth or should they field a complete team?

If I recall correctly Law has an ivy league education and his writing style seems typical of a spoiled brat.  He gushed over high ceilings all the time and has no value for high floor guys.  This is exactly what the Brewers have at triple A.  Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer are all high floor.  None will be developing more power or speed or arm strength.  

Have you ever noticed that high school players always have higher ceilings than college players?  Could that be because high school players haven't been evaluated as much as college players?  The pundits like high school players exactly for this reason they get to evaluate something new.  The new outfield will be an improvement over 2022 don't care what any pundit says my eyes don't lie.

Yeah, we will have to agree to disagree.  

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

All media employed evaluators have a personal incentive.  It's called a job.  That is why the pundits focus on the big teams.  Most of their viewers are from those markets.  Also, the more controversial the pundit the more views his/her articles receive.  They are the most biased opinions out there and for good reason to think anybody in the media is virtuous writing without a personal incentive is plain naive.  

Look at it this way.  The Milwaukee Brewer will spend about $120 million on a roster.  As of now the five players:  Mitchell, Taylor, Frelick, Yelich, and Winker contribute around $40 million.  That is not counting anything else.  The Brewers need to find another 20 players or so that will cost around $80 million.  Given Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames will likely net another $40 million that will leave $40-45 million for the other 15 players.  So, do you really think the Brewers ought to spend more money on outfield depth or should they field a complete team?

I am trying to understand your math. Mitchell/Taylor/Frelick are making the minimum (I think it's $711k) which equals $2.13M.  Winker is $8.25M and Yelich $22M. That's about $32.5M. The estimates that I have seen for Woody ($11.25)/Burnes ($12)/Adames ($9.25) equal about $32.5M also. On the high side that's $65M. That would leave (assuming $120M is the is correct) $55M for 18 players or about $3.1M per guy. I'm pretty sure Contreras is at the minimum and if Turang/Strzelecki/Cousins make the team (which looks highly probable) they are at the minimum too. I think there would still be room to add a reasonable 3B if one comes available and a little help in the pen. 

I’d kind of split the difference. Sign Myers or someone similar. If Mitchell and Frelick are playing well, he platoons with Tellez and Winker. If not, and Wiemer isn’t ready, he is a decent backup plan. I would start the two of them to start the season, though.

I think there is a decent chance that Turang starts the season in AAA with Toro getting first crack at third. Assuming he is playing well, though, he would be my first call up from AAA.