Brewers Notes: New Projected Standings, Aaron Ashby's Shoulder, Craig Counsell's Status, More

On Friday, FanGraphs released its first look at the projected National League standings for 2023, according to the ZiPS projection system. These are always interesting gauges of where teams are as spring camps open, but this year, they seem to have special significance, as we try to sort through the implications of the newly balanced schedule and the changing rule set. 

For Brewers fans, though, it might be a good self-care choice to ignore these, or at least to take a wait-and-see approach. The system projects the Crew not only to finish a distant second to the Cardinals in the NL Central (91 wins to 83), but to miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. Dan Szymborski, the proprietor of ZiPS, wrote in the post revealing the projected standings that his system "doesn't like Milwaukee's depth anywhere near [as] much as St. Louis'," and cites that as the biggest reason for the gap. 

Obviously, that's a subject on which there could be plenty of debate. A tweet from MLB.com's Mike Petriello near the end of last week reaffirmed what we all know, which is that the Brewers actually do an excellent job of avoiding massive failures and fielding sub-replacement players.

I know "have good players and not bad ones" is not an earth-shattering take, but look at how much non-competitive plate appearances the Angels gave out last year -- despite having Trout, Ohtani, & Ward.

--> https://t.co/QGDJGHI0hX pic.twitter.com/nbeJndEWo3

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) February 9, 2023

More concerning than the direct comparison with the Cardinals, then, perhaps, is the fact that there are four other teams in line ahead of the Crew for the three NL Wild Card spots. The 88-win Giants and 85-win Phillies join the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres, all of whom are projected to win over 90 games. This is a known obstacle for the Brewers, but it's a sobering reminder of how much they need to keep pace with St. Louis. With the schedule advantage based on division strength more muted this year, it will be harder to claim a Wild Card berth.

The easy headline about Aaron Ashby came last Wednesday, when GM Matt Arnold acknowledged that Ashby would be delayed at the start of spring training due to shoulder fatigue, just months after his season was truncated by shoulder inflammation. That was unwelcome news, but not quite a gut punch, since it left open the possibility that the team was just being careful with the young southpaw in whom they made a (modest) long-term investment.

On Thursday, though, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com brought the hammer down, with more (and much more discouraging) specifics from manager Craig Counsell.

One piece of new info: Doesn't sound as if Brewers expect Aaron Ashby (shoulder) to be ready for Opening Day. "It’s a remnant from last year that manifested itself as he ramped up throwing again," Craig Counsell said today. "We had to take a pretty big step back as far as rest.”

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 9, 2023

This is a time of year in which we often welcome thoughts of June, with its sunshine and the end of the school year and the final banishment of the cold wetness of spring in the Upper Midwest. I read the tweet above, and I thought immediately of June, but in a bad way. It doesn't feel like Ashby will be available any sooner than May. It's more realistic to focus on June, and at that point, it's very much worth asking whether he would best help the team by preparing for and focusing on working out of the bullpen. Suddenly, the stakes of the Wade Miley contract feel higher, as do the chances that Bryse Wilson or Robert Gasser make a meaningful number of starts for the Crew in 2023.

It's not the news we're waiting for (yet), but it does sound like Craig Counsell envisions an extension that would keep him on the top step of the Brewers dugout beyond the end of his contract, which expires at the end of 2023. 

Todd Rosiak of the Journal-Sentinel spoke to Counsell, who gave a long quote in which he said he and Mark Attanasio have already had conversations about him staying on beyond 2023, and that he feels both happy and motivated. At this stage, I wouldn't read any negativity or danger into the fact that an extension isn't yet done. If that remains the case on March 1, we'll have to revisit the topic, but I'm operating under the assumption that Attanasio and Arnold both find Counsell (as I do) to be one of the five or six best managers in baseball. As long as he wants to be back, he's likely to be, though the leash will grow short and the seat warm if the team doesn't return to the playoffs this year.

Finally, with spring training set to begin this week, there was a late flurry of cleanup activity on the free-agent market. The Cubs scooped up Michael Fulmer, a right-handed reliever. The Dodgers grabbed David Peralta, a left-handed DH who can fake an outfield corner spot when needed. Neither of those are high-impact moves, and either player would have been redundant for the Brewers, so the only impact involved is that the Cubs (projected by ZiPS to finish five games behind the Brewers as of Friday morning) edge a bit closer to them, and that the Dodgers get marginally safer from being caught if they end up battling Milwaukee for a Wild Card spot. 

When Andrew Chafin signed with the Diamondbacks, though, I did wince a little. First of all, the Diamondbacks, too, are in the sub-contender zone, but even closer on the Brewers' heels than are the Cubs. The ZiPS standings had them at 81 wins before the Chafin deal. They're one of those teams who could pose an especially unexpected and frustrating problem if the standings tend toward chaos come August and September. Chafin is a great fit for their thin bullpen. (As an aside, it's nice that he gets a second stint with the team who drafted him in 2011 and developed him patiently over the ensuing years.)

Secondly, though, Chafin would have helped the Brewers' bullpen, and they'd been one rumored landing spot for him. The relief corps leans extremely right-handed, with only Hoby Milner seemingly safely locked in from the left side. Ashby's injury enters into this conversation. So does the fact that Chafin would have offered a really good change of look and stuff profile from Milner and Ashby, and from the Brewers' staff as a whole. There are still ways Arnold can supplement Counsell's set of options, but Chafin was a very good one, now gone by the boards.

That's a lot to chew on. As ever, I welcome your thoughts, on the projected standings; the trickle-down effects of Ashby's apparent unavailability early on; Counsell as this team's long-term leader; and the need (or not!) to further bolster the roster by scouring the free-agent scrapheap.