Brewers Need To Explore Upgrading First Base

On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. 

The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys.

I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. 

The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys.

I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is.

This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward.  That is far from assured.  Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years.  Bell has an wRC+ of 147.  That is a big difference.  However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances.

All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward.  The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement.  Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered.

We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half.  See 2019.

Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.

You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is.

This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward.  That is far from assured.  Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years.  Bell has an wRC+ of 147.  That is a big difference.  However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances.

All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward.  The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement.  Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered.

We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half.  See 2019.

Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

 

I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

That's the part that makes me say "no, thanks". I have no problem acquiring Bell if the cost isn't prohibitive, but not for Tellez. He defends his position well, is productive (although he certainly has the capacity to walk more, and should), and is tied up for awhile. Having him & Bell makes for a bit of a disjointed roster & makes it trickier to get McCutchen ABs but I would live with that. At the end of the day I'd much rather see a CF brought in but looking at the options I don't know how realistic that is.

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

 

I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

That's the part that makes me say "no, thanks". I have no problem acquiring Bell if the cost isn't prohibitive, but not for Tellez. He defends his position well, is productive (although he certainly has the capacity to walk more, and should), and is tied up for awhile. Having him & Bell makes for a bit of a disjointed roster & makes it trickier to get McCutchen ABs but I would live with that. At the end of the day I'd much rather see a CF brought in but looking at the options I don't know how realistic that is.

You are overlooking the one ability that Tellez has over every other bat in the lineup.  It's AVAILABILITY.  He's been available every day.  Same can't be said for anyone else save Yelich but his back flaring up is just a matter of time and Peterson who's great as a super utility guy but not so much playing everyday.  Rowdy's negative is that he's streaky but he's the only guy opposing teams really fear even if it's only when he's hot.  This team has struggled offensively because guys continue to get hurt doing normal baseball things.  I've never seen players so susceptible to ankle sprains and calf strains.  Ankle sprains are a given in basketball, but baseball?  Seems they are avoidable.  Maybe our starting SS doesn't need to prove he has a good vertical jump and just stay on the ground when he's congratulating a teammate.

You are overlooking the one ability that Tellez has over every other bat in the lineup.  It's AVAILABILITY.  He's been available every day.  Same can't be said for anyone else save Yelich but his back flaring up is just a matter of time and Peterson who's great as a super utility guy but not so much playing everyday.  Rowdy's negative is that he's streaky but he's the only guy opposing teams really fear even if it's only when he's hot.  This team has struggled offensively because guys continue to get hurt doing normal baseball things.  I've never seen players so susceptible to ankle sprains and calf strains.  Ankle sprains are a given in basketball, but baseball?  Seems they are avoidable.  Maybe our starting SS doesn't need to prove he has a good vertical jump and just stay on the ground when he's congratulating a teammate.

42 minutes ago, Tommy Ciaccio said:

I'm appreciating seeing the perspectives here and learning from them. I suppose always be happy to know you don't know enough and improve from there. Admittedly I was unaware of Bell's precipitous decline in 2019. It's an anecdotal piece of evidence but it should be considered if you're going to move a young bat with value. Also admittedly I wanted to post something provocative and be forced to defend my point a little but, but I'm starting to come around to the doubting side of my unorthodox proposition. 

Classy post. Not enough of this on fan message boards. Well done.

Funny thing with Tellez. He often shows, to me anyway, a knack for trying to work to get his pitch, for knowing what he should & shouldn't swing at. Then out of nowhere he has an AB, or succession of ABs, where he chases. It's more than likely feeling the need to be "the guy", which seldom ends well. Watching him for a year now I see a power hitter who is smart enough to also take his walks, but doesn't do so nearly enough.

42 minutes ago, Tommy Ciaccio said:

I'm appreciating seeing the perspectives here and learning from them. I suppose always be happy to know you don't know enough and improve from there. Admittedly I was unaware of Bell's precipitous decline in 2019. It's an anecdotal piece of evidence but it should be considered if you're going to move a young bat with value. Also admittedly I wanted to post something provocative and be forced to defend my point a little but, but I'm starting to come around to the doubting side of my unorthodox proposition. 

Classy post. Not enough of this on fan message boards. Well done.

Funny thing with Tellez. He often shows, to me anyway, a knack for trying to work to get his pitch, for knowing what he should & shouldn't swing at. Then out of nowhere he has an AB, or succession of ABs, where he chases. It's more than likely feeling the need to be "the guy", which seldom ends well. Watching him for a year now I see a power hitter who is smart enough to also take his walks, but doesn't do so nearly enough.

There are two huge holes in our offense: CF against LHP (more than .100 ops below average) and 1B against LHP (more than .080 ops below average)( DH against LHP is probably the next on the list) (excessive parentheses are above average).  Everything else on the roster grades out average or better. If Hiura had normal splits instead of reverse splits, then it would be a no-brainer to upgrade at CF. 

I really appreciate the article, and the data (especially against LHP supports it).

Rowdy and Keston both grade out poorly on defense. Whether the eye-test agrees, I don’t know. If there was a guy who had great defense, could mash lefties, and cost an organizational 11 or lower prospect, then yes, Get that guy. 
 

But I get tied up on the emotional part of it. My kids LOVE Rowdy. Their first game in over a year (because I am rarely in WI) was Tuesday, when Rowdy’s home run was the main bright spot. So while Keston and Rowdy have their flaws, I love sharing moments with my kids. The moment will rarely be the World Series. But as long as the moments of jumping off the couch, screaming “Rowdybomb!!!” exist, I will be happy. 

Obviously it would be good to have an improvement at any position. You could write an article like this about any of our players.

But it's more expensive to improve on a player who has been adequate than one who has been abysmal. And I don't even think Bell is a good option to replace Rowdy. He's not a good first baseman, and this year seems to be a fluke.

I love this sentence:

"[A]ssuming the strategy is to get a ring, fan outrage should pretty much never be considered because fans aren't experts." 

1 hour ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

I'm not in favor of trading Tellez for Bell, but this idea that Tellez is a decent defensive first baseman is something I think people are just gauging on the ol' eye test. Both fangraphs and BR have him as pretty much near the bottom of the NL as far as defensive first basemen go, and the whole "I watch the games" just isn't as good as the data that breaks down the information that we have. On top of that, he's our guy, and we're biased to a large degree.  He's not good at defense, even though he may make a nifty play from time to time, and that certainly colors our perceptions of his value on defense. 

He's a .4 WAR 1st baseman past the halfway point, and if a clear upgrade could be found (honestly, there probably isn't) that doesn't include top tier prospects or cost certainty (which Rowdy is, over Bell) for the next few years, the Brewers have to at least explore it. 

I get what you're saying, but I'm not entirely convinced that the defensive metrics really quantify Rowdy's game in the field.  One particular thing Tellez does an excellent job with is handling inaccurate throws and turning them into outs, and it takes a really bad throw to get by the guy.  He routinely picks all kinds of stuff Prince likely wouldn't have even gotten a glove on.  There is a huge amount of unsung value in that ability.