Series Preview: Brew Crew Needs to Dominate Rival Cubs

The All-Star break is artificially respected as the halfway point of the season. In truth, all of the fanfare and revelry of those mid-July festivities occur just slightly after the actual halfway point. Nevertheless, two truths exist at the same time: the All-Star break just ended, and the season’s wind down period is in full promenade.

In baseball parlance, “wind down” is misleading. The races heat up, and every game, inning and pitch has a condensed sense of importance. The Cubs won’t be playing meaningful baseball in October, and even after a spunky split-series performance against the Dodgers, the Brewers' playoff status is precarious. Can the fierce rivalry manifest some luck for the Crew, or send their tailspin in a terminal trajectory? 

Friday August 19th
Aaron Ashby (2-10 4.24 ERA)
Keegan Thompson (9-5 3.67 ERA)
Aaron Ashby’s definitive trajectory won’t be determined by two games, but there were whispers of hopeful things to come in his most recent high-pressure start against the St. Louis Cardinals. Throwing with enhanced control, Ashby managed a quality start; on the back of three hits and two runs, it was ultimately a no-decision.

Squaring off against Ashby is middling righty Keegan Thompson. Along with a 1.4 WAR and 8.4 H/9, Thompson brings with him a bit of notoriety for throwing at Andrew McCutchen very early in the season. Of his 100.2 IP this season, 1.2 were collected in his most recent start, where he labored for over 70 pitches to retire only five hitters. 

Saturday August 20th
Freddy Peralta (4-3 4.21 ERA)
Marcus Stroman (3-5 3.96 ERA)
It was a game of “onlys” for Freddiy Peralta in his most recent start. Against the Dodgers he only lasted four innings, surrendering only one run on a Freddy Freeman solo shot. He gave up only one more hit after that. The only non-only for Peralta was, concerningly, in the walks department. Four walks in as many innings, because of his 92 pitches, only 51 were strikes.

The first year of Marcus Stroman’s contract as a Chicago Cub has been as unremarkable as the North Sider’s season itself. His ERA was recently pushed just south of four; the FIP at 3.87 is just the tiniest bit lower. In Stroman’s most recent start, four runs were surrendered, but none were earned. This feels like a microcosm of the Cubs season generally.

Sunday August 21st
Brandon Woodruff (9-3 3.53 ERA)
Justin Steele (4-7 3.43 ERA) 
It wasn’t categorically dominant, but Brandon Woodruff managed to stave off domination at the hands of the monstrous Dodgers. He managed to keep Los Angeles shut out until the fifth inning, where he’d eventually surrender dingers to a resurgent Joey Gallo and an always otherworldly Mookie Betts. Suffice to say, the Cubs should post a less pressing challenge. 

Justin Steele’s last two starts have been against a very bad Nationals team and he was appropriately effective in each start. All-in-all, the young Steele is enjoying a very capable sophomore campaign and, while there might not be a lot of flash to enjoy in the immediate, it’s worth keeping an eye on a player who looks poised to perform well for a division foe for years to come. 

Players To Watch
Nico Hoerner: Watching All-Star snub Nico Hoerner is an inspiring exercise. Despite the fact that the Cubs are functionally moot in terms of competition, Hoerner takes the field with something to prove. Now that Javier Baez has taken his talents to the Detroit Tigers, Hoerner is the mainstay at shortstop. He’s batting .380 in the month of August, and has accumulated more WAR than any position player the Brewers have on the field. 

Willson Contreras: As one fraternal catching dynasty in the Molina clan winds down, a new one in the Contreras’ clan is just getting started. Atlanta Braves backstop William Contreras quietly started the All-Star game this year, while his big brother Willson (also an All-Star this year) was the subject of raised eyebrows after being mysteriously untraded at the deadline despite impending free agency. If it is indeed in the plans, keeping an asset like Contreras for the long-term makes perfect sense for the Cubs, as his passionate gameplay has helped substantiate himself as a thorn in the side for anyone who opposes him.

Matt Bush: The acquisition of this storied righty largely flew under the radar, but there is something worth paying attention to in Matt Bush. He owns a solid 51:12 k/bb ratio, and a WHIP just above one. These aren’t particularly sexy stats, but with savvy bullpen management, Bush’s true asset, versatility, comes to life. Josh Hader was at his strongest when he could come in mid-game, snag a high leverage out or two, or close out the game. Bush won’t ever be as flashy as peak Hader, but where Hader eventually evolved exclusively into a closer, Bush can still pitch whenever he’s needed. 

Christian Yelich: There’s no equivalent around a .042 batting average in a 10-game stretch. That the hit was a well-demolished home run is exemplary of the kind of frustration Yelich has produced over the last couple of seasons. Still, there are reasons to be skeptical of how actually “bad” he is. It’s worth mentioning that Yelich leads the team in stolen bases (16) and runs created (61.56). It still feels like there is something Yelich can return to to perform at an upper-tier.

Predictions
Predicting anything in baseball is obviously folly. No one would have predicted at the beginning of the season, or even three weeks ago that the Cleveland Guardians would be leading the AL Central on August 18th. No one would have predicted that Corbin Burnes would switch candidacies from DFA to Cy Young in a season and a half's time. Logic and statistics would dictate that the Brewers are substantially better than the Cubs and should sweep them, but these Brewers just can’t dominate these mediocre to bad teams. I’ll say the Brewer take two of three. 

In Summary
It’s mid-August, just through the dog days of summer, and the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers are the sad puppy in the rain looking from the outside in on an expanded playoff field. The trade deadline was itself a whimper and the deflated play since then reflected its neutered tone.

Enough dog metaphors. Simply stated: the Brewers need to win, and win confidently. The Brewers need to step into Wrigley Field and own it like it was their home turf. The Cubs are a cobbling together of competent, but not elite, talents. Justin Steele and Patrick Wisdom are not Devin Williams and Willy Adames. The Brewers need to wrangle their potential and play like the better team that they are, or the season is already over.