Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers '23 - #39 Corbin Burnes

An unfortunate thing happened on the way to the laptop over the past 12 days. I didn't write any BBtJN pieces!

With apologies to #43 Ethan Small, #41 Jason Alexander, #49 Thyago Vieira, #46 Bryse Wilson, #45 Thomas Pannone, and even #48 Colin Rea, life got in the way. I had some water damage in my kitchen due to a leaking dishwasher (resulting in contractors coming over for quotes, dealing with insurance adjustors, getting the damage cleaned up), my day job had a lot of situations pop up, and some business in my side gig and a few other things, I didn't have a lot of time during the 40s this year.

Normally all these players would be deserving of a profile, as four of them are new (or returning) to the organization and two made MLB debuts in 2022. Even with my time constraints, I still tried to write up Small and Alexander, but I couldn't do the Small piece well enough and the Alexander piece was nearly written when the news of his injury broke and I decided not to bother rewriting it to include his health update.

If I find time in a week or so, I might try to fire off a supplemental entry in BBtJN to give a brief update and outlook on each of the players I missed. If I do that, it'll be over at my blog and I'll share a link to the post on Twitter.

But I digress.

You're not here to read about any of those players. If you clicked on this link, you're looking for my thoughts on...

Corbin Burnes.

Photo credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Now 28 years old, Corbin Brian Burnes enters the 2023 season two years away from free agency and huge annual salaries. Where those dollars will be coming from has been the subject of speculation among Brewers fans ever since Burnes decided to emerge from a trip to the Crew's pitching lab as one of the best starters in the sport.

By now, you know the story. Burnes debuted as a reliever in 2018 and was ridiculous. In 30 games that season for the Brewers, he won seven games, lost none, and posted a 2.61 ERA in 38.0 innings. Another six postseason appearances that year saw him post a 1-0 record with a 2.00 ERA in 9.0 innings.

A star was seemingly born, but as good as 2018 was, 2019 was the stuff of nightmares. Thirty-two games, four starts, 49.0 IP, 70 H, 52 R (48 ER), 17 HR, 20 BB, 70 K. All told, that was "good" for a 8.82 ERA and a 51 ERA+. It was so ugly that Burnes was given a break to sort things out.

There was enough coverage about 2019 eventually that I needn't rehash everything here, but suffice it to say that Burnes would indeed sort things out.

2020's COVID-shortened season saw Burnes appear in 12 games, nine of them starts, and post vastly improved numbers, both results and peripherals. The next year saw the quick culmination of all the work, effort, and improvements for Burnes. He opened the season by setting an MLB record for innings pitched without allowing a walk, and finished the year as the National League's Cy Young Award winner.

Last season proved that 2021 was no fluke. This is a legitimate ace pitcher in the league, one worthy of huge dollars. Let the countdown to his free agency begin in earnest.

Burnes' combined stats over the past three seasons:

73 G, 70 GS, 426.2 IP, 2.64 ERA, 304 H, 135 R (125 ER), 32 HR, 109 BB, 565 K

Of note, 23 of those home runs came in 2022, as did 51 of the walks. Despite those stats suffering from similar inflation levels as the country, Burnes still kept his 2022 ERA under 3.00 at 2.94. And even that number includes a stretch from August 18th through September 19th which saw Burnes post totals of 41.2 IP and 29 runs allowed with 26 earned runs for a 5.62 ERA over the month and a day. Of course, that stretch included a 8.0 IP, 3 H, ER, 0 BB, 14 K start against the San Francisco Giants at American Family Field.

A sampling of Burnes' accolades in 2022:

• Became the Brewers franchise leader in double-digit strikeout games
  • Finished the season with 21 such games in his career
• Selected to his second All-Star Game
• Became the first Milwaukee Brewer to lead the National League in strikeouts (243)
• Had the winning decision as Craig Counsell became the Brewers' all-time leader in managerial wins
• Named the #1 Starting Pitcher in MLB entering 2023 by MLB Network

Contract Status: Burnes' one-year contract for 2023 was arbitrated to be at a value of $10.01 million. Much has been written on the subject, including a breakdown of the fallout surrounding the arbitration hearing by our own Matt Trueblood.

2023 Outlook: Honestly, 2023 should give us more of what we've come to expect from Corbin Burnes. He'll often be dominant, typically be quality, and occasionally be stricken with a hiccup along the way. After all, he may be the best in the game, but nobody is perfect.

As with all predictions, this carries the "so long as he's healthy" caveat, but I would expect Burnes is good for another 30+ starts, 200+ innings, and 200+ strikeouts. He's the epitome of a starting pitcher in this league right now.

That's worth paying for, by whomever his employer is.

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Catch up on BBtJN '23!

#55 Hoby Milner
#54 Jake Cousins
#53 Brandon Woodruff
#52 Eric Lauer
#51 Freddy Peralta