Tides of Change in 2023: The Pitch Clock & Banning of the Shift

The Players Association recently granted the league the ability to implement future rule changes with just a 45-day notice. Previously, rule changes required a full-year timeline before they could be implemented. 

Most of the changes coming in 2023, at least at this point, are going to impact the product on TV. MLB has long sought to improve the television-viewing experience for the fans, including changes to the pace of play and the action on the field. Let's discuss those rules below, and share thoughts on each in the Comments section. 

Pitch clock
MLB has dreamed of a pitch clock, dating back (at least) to 2015 when it started experimenting with the rule in the minor leagues. Initial results did not change game lengths drastically, but players found a way around the rules. Stepping off the rubber would reset the clock, there were no limits on this strategy. In the latest iteration, tried in the Low-A West League in 2021, they tried again with a new approach. The pitchers had 15 seconds with nobody on base and 17 seconds with runners on. Along with the pitch clock, they limited the number of times a pickoff attempt can be made. The pitcher received two "free" throws over per batter, and the third attempt, if unsuccessful, counted as a balk. If the pitcher stepped off the rubber, it counted as one of the pickoff attempts. A really nice breakdown can be found at Baseball America.

The combination of the pitch clock and the limit on pickoff attempts proved to be successful. The average game was 21 minutes shorter and, possibly more importantly in the eyes of the league, the offense was significantly up. Runs per game increased by over half a run, average batting average went up about 25 points, walks went down and so did strikeouts. Games were faster and the ball was put in play more often - exactly what Manfred wants in a TV product.

The Brewers don’t have many pitchers that take an excessive amount of time to throw home, and Brent Suter is a poster boy for the movement.

Whether it makes Suter more or less effective will remain to be seen. It would likely affect the offense if the same trends follow to the highest level of the game. The Brewers strike out a lot, and if pitchers are forced to pitch faster it could help. Forcing the pitcher to speed up his process leaves less time for lengthy pitch selections and max effort pitches. The good news is that it is less likely to affect Brewers' pitching than a lot of other pitchers around the league.

Say goodbye to the shift
This has been a long time coming, as Manfred has desired more action on the base paths and less “easy” outs for the defense. The current proposal will require two infielders on either side of second base in addition to requiring those players to be on the infield dirt.

A surface-level glance at the data would indicate a massive difference in the on-field product. Kyle Glaser wrote a great piece on the attempt in the minor leagues. He found that the banning of the shift provided no statistical difference in the league average on Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). In my opinion, it will matter more at the major-league level than it did in the minors. First, and foremost, you won’t have four right fielders facing up against Joey Gallo, and six total defenders on the right side of the field. Players like him have faced similar situations, although not to the extreme that the Astros went in the tweet below.

The second difference is that major league batters have more track record on balls in play, and teams can effectively predict, with far greater certainty, the outcome of various at-bats. Lastly, the pitchers at the highest level are simply better than those that aren’t - naturally. Teams are able to pitch into the shift. If facing Christian Yelich, teams would find that pitching in on the plate is more likely to cause a ground ball into the shift. At the lower levels, pitchers are much less effective at hitting their spots.

How does this affect the product in Milwaukee? As mentioned in part one of the rule changes, the Brewers staff is really savvy. They are at the cutting edge of shifting, and do it with much more success than much of the competition. This is a big advantage for the Brewers' defense and pitching numbers, so the on-field product is likely to drop - at least a small amount. If Milwaukee picks up Kolten Wong’s option year, they will have a defensive infield with incredible range. Wong covers a lot of ground, being a Gold Glove second baseman, and on the other side of the infield, they essentially have two shortstops in Willy Adames and Luis Urias. In essence, it will hurt their defense minimally, relative to many other things, because their defense is very good. This would have been a completely different scenario when they used Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, and Jesus Aguilar in the same infield configuration. The offense is likely to benefit from this, notably the power left-handed bats. Only time will tell the degree to which they will benefit.

Oversized Bases
The league is looking to make the bases larger, exactly three inches larger. The primary reason for increasing base sizes to 18-inches is it will reduce collisions and injuries near the bases, especially at first base. More base means more space for sliding around a defender, or so they say. I’m more skeptical on this, as runners often slide into defenders in an attempt to break up a play, something they will continue to be able to do. The extra size may also lead to more action on the base paths, which was actually seen in Triple-A in 2021 when experimenting with this rule.

This would have greatly helped the 2018 and 2019 Brewers, who ranked near the top of the league in stolen base attempts. They were near the bottom in 2020 and the middle in 2021. So much of this depends on which players are on the field in any given situation. With the shift going away, we can expect a few more hit and run attempts as players are less likely to line or fly out during a steal attempt.

New schedule - MLB stars coming to a city near you!
The league looks to expand fanbases and increase the visibility of its stars with a reworking of the traditional schedule. Gone will be the days of seeing divisional opponents for almost 50% of the schedule. Teams currently face each divisional opponent 19 times in a given season, which will become 14 times each - seven home and seven away - in 2023. With the additional 20 games on the schedule, teams play their geographic rival four times and three games against the other 14 teams in the opposite league. Home and away series will alternate each year. Not only does this even out the home and away games for divisional opponents, it means fans will have the opportunity to see more players. Shohei Ohtani will be playing in every stadium across the league starting in 2023 - this is great for baseball.

It will be a short-term boon for the Brewers, who are set to fatten up on divisional opponents in 2022. Roster changes make this hard to predict out annually, but the increased games against more opponents will present Milwaukee a new opportunity: the more players that come to American Family Field and enjoy the city, the better chances the front office will have in signing free agents. Milwaukee has recently started to be a destination signing, due to the competitive nature of the team and the culture instituted by Craig Counsell and his team.

See the rule changes for 2022 here.