How the New Rules for 2022 will Impact the Brewers

Universal DH (including the “Ohtani Rule”)
Probably the most visible change to baseball since the discovery of Launch Angle, the Designated Hitter will be utilized in both leagues. The differences between the NL and AL are nonexistent at this point, with this final pillar of the NL falling in the new CBA. This is something that both the owners and players have long wanted.

The second part of this new rule, dubbed the “Ohtani Rule," says that a player who starts a game at both DH and pitcher can remain in the game as the DH, even after being removed as a pitcher. While Brandon Woodruff swings a nice bat, for a pitcher, this really does not affect any player currently in the league whose first name is not Shohei.

In my opinion, the DH hurts the Brewers more than it helps them, and no, it is not because Woodruff’s bat will be missing from the lineup. Craig Counsell is one of the best managers in baseball, arguably THE best manager in baseball. One of the areas Counsell excels is in bullpen management when coupled with a double switch. He does draw flak for pulling pitchers too soon, but rarely does he leave a pitcher in the game too long.

Counsell seems to prefer players with ample versatility, allowing him to mix and match his pinch hitters. Other baseball managers are not as good at doing this. In the 2021 Wild Card game, Cardinals' manager Mike Shildt let Adam Wainwright hit for himself in the top of the sixth inning. The game was tied 1-1. Harrison Bader was on first base with two outs. Wainwright had thrown 83 pitches through five innings. Counsell would never let a pitcher bat in this situation, but good ol’ Mike Shildt did. Wainwright grounded out to the pitcher on the first pitch he saw. In the next half-inning, he threw four pitches to Corey Seager and gave up a single to Trea Turner on a ground ball to third base. That was the end of Wainwright’s season. One base runner, on weak contact. If that was the plan all along, Shildt would have been much better-served pinch-hitting with Paul DeJong, or any other person on the bench that swings a bat as a part of their job. Decisions like this will no longer have to be made, removing difficult decisions from the plate of managers.

The DH will, however, allow the manager to rest players, rotating through the team and keeping the bats in the lineup while partially resting a player. This DH strategy is going to help the team over the course of 162 games more than it will in any, singular game.

Option Limits on Players and IL Timeframe
The new season will feature a rule that limits the ability of a club to option a player at will throughout the season. Starting in 2022, a player can only be optioned five times in a season before that player will need to be designated for assignment. An optioned player must remain in the minor leagues for a minimum of 15 days before that player can be recalled to the big league roster. The new 15-day minimum will also apply to pitchers on the Injured List, position players will remain at 10 days.

The limit on the number of times a player can be optioned will absolutely affect the way in which The Brewers will manage their roster. Less so for the rotation, but Milwaukee is one of the teams notorious for frequently shuffling the bullpen via player options. This is one of the rules that seems to target the Brewers. All teams do this to an extent (and they’re not actually targeting the Brewers... probably).

Ghost runner on second in extra innings (featuring the return of nine-inning double headers)
After agreeing to get rid of the ghost runner during the CBA, the league and players association went back to the table after looking at how many doubleheaders would be featured in 2022 (and that’s before any games are missed to weather). With the return of nine-inning double features and the limit on player options, both sides agreed to re-implement the ghost runner.

Milwaukee played to a 10-9 record in extra innings in 2021, but they were also 21-15 in one-run games. I wouldn’t expect this to matter to the Brewers over the course of a full season, but Counsell does like the rule. He told The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, “I do like it because it shortens games. It also saves players’ jobs and needless roster maneuvering, oftentimes with players who perform well in the game, which I think is really unfair.”

The “Jacob Nottingham” Rule
If a team has claimed a player on waivers already, that same team can no longer claim the player again until every other team has had the opportunity to claim this same player.

This one would have directly impacted the Brewers last year. This was introduced at least partly as a result of David Stearns' DFA of Jacob Nottingham in 2021. After the Brewers DFAd him, he was claimed by Seattle. Soon after, Omar Narvaez and Manny Pina were injured and the club needed a short-term replacement. That led to Stearns re-acquiring Nottingham from the Mariners. When the catchers returned, Nottingham was again DFAd and claimed by Seattle. The likelihood of something like this happening again is low, even without this newly-minted rule.

Service time manipulation
One of the biggest concerns players have had is service-time manipulation. The current solution, agreed to in the new CBA, is two-pronged. When a player is on the Opening Day roster and is voted into the top three players for Rookie of the Year (ROY), MVP, or Cy Young, the team will receive draft pick compensation. More importantly, any rookie player that finishes in the top two for ROY voting will receive a full year of service time, regardless of when he was promoted to the big leagues.

This is unlikely to affect the Brewers, at least this year. Aaron Ashby retains his rookie status. He is currently in the mix for a spot on the Opening Day roster. Will any other minor leaguers come up during the season with a shot at Rookie of the Year consideration? 

Expanded Playoffs and Game 163
The postseason is set to take on a new format, with expansion to 12 teams. Three division winners and three wild card teams will make up the field for each league. The top two division winners (seeds #1 and #2) will receive byes, with the third division winner (#3) playing the third wild card team (#6) and the top two wild card teams (#4 and #5) playing each other in round one. There will be no reseeds after the first round, the #1 seed will host the winner of #4 v #5 and #2 will host the winner of #3 v #6. With the expanded playoffs, no game #163 will be played. The league has instead opted for a system of tiebreakers (still to be outlined).

This is unlikely to affect the Brewers in 2022, as they are expected to handily clinch the NL Central. They should be well within the division or top three wild card spots. In future years, this could help a lower payroll team like Milwaukee sneak into the playoffs on a “down” year.

Draft Lottery - The Anti-Tanking Rule
The 18 teams that do not make the playoffs will be entered into a weighted draft for the top six picks. Like the NBA Draft Lottery, more weight and a higher likelihood for a top pick will go to the teams with the worst records. The players really wanted something to be done about tanking. This is what both sides agreed to.

It may slightly factor into teams that are considering a rebuild, and how far they tear the team down, but since the lottery is weighted, I am still of the opinion that certain teams will race to the bottom in search of lower payroll coupled with higher picks. This shouldn’t affect the Brewers for some time, as even their last “rebuild” was kickstarted very quickly and they have not looked back.

International Draft/Compensation Pick for signing a free agent
Owners have long wanted an international draft, players have long wanted to do away with the draft pick compensation associated with signing a player that received a qualifying offer. Owners threw this wrench at the players at the last minute, but that’s a different article for a different time. For now, the two sides have agreed to do away with the "comp" pick if they can come to an agreement on the international draft before July 25. If they don't reach an agreement, the qualifying offer penalty will remain in place for the remainder of this CBA. If they do come to terms with each other, it will be for the 2024 international draft moving forward.

This may affect the Brewers, as they have used the lack of interest in players tied to a qualifying offer penalty to their advantage in the past - most notably by signing Yasmani Grandal. The international draft may be more of an impact, but that has yet to be seen. The Brewers are very active in certain international markets, but a draft may give them access to elite prospects they are otherwise less likely to sign.

Summary
There are several new rules. Some may help a team like the Brewers. Others may hurt the organization. Milwaukee is incredibly good at finding advantages on the fringes. Stearns, Arnold, Counsell, and the entire organization's staff should get a lot of credit for finding advantages. Any new rule changes will not alter the fact that they are really good at this. They'll just need to find a different edge to poke because a group that smart will find more ways to excel. The organization is top-notch and always finding ways to separate from the pack and Counsell is smart enough to use that information in a practical manner.

See the proposed rules for 2023 and how they may affect Milwaukee, including a ban on the shift and a pitch clock.