MLBTR - Is Adrian Houser a Trade Candidate?

4 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Looking down MLB list among their top 10 prospects, there are what reads high risk, high reward types in Coby Mayo and Seth Johnson.  If Baltimore would part with both for Houser, I think that would be a trade to agree with for Houser.  The two are more 2024 potential than seeing games in 2023 so I'd venture the Brewers FO wouldn't make that trade expecting to find someone to play in 2023. 

I don see Baltimore giving up Mayo for Houser maybe Lauer but not Houser.  Johnson makes sense but I think you are looking at Kjerstad or Povich instead of Mayo.  

Houser has proven that he can pitch out of the bullpen, and at present his value to the team out of the pen is probably higher than the value he could get in trade. So, I think that barring injuries between now and opening day, he'll be in the 'pen.

That still leaves six starters without options. At this point, I don't see them trading Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta. It appears that Miley was signed to be a starter (the innings pitched clause in his contract wouldn't be there if he wasn't starting). That leaves either (a) send Ashby to the pen, (b) trade Lauer (c) go with a six-man rotation.

I don't like option C because that would mean a lot less starts for Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, so either Ashby goes to the 'pen or Lauer gets traded.

6 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Houser has proven that he can pitch out of the bullpen, and at present his value to the team out of the pen is probably higher than the value he could get in trade. So, I think that barring injuries between now and opening day, he'll be in the 'pen.

That still leaves six starters without options. At this point, I don't see them trading Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta. It appears that Miley was signed to be a starter (the innings pitched clause in his contract wouldn't be there if he wasn't starting). That leaves either (a) send Ashby to the pen, (b) trade Lauer (c) go with a six-man rotation.

I don't like option C because that would mean a lot less starts for Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, so either Ashby goes to the 'pen or Lauer gets traded.

One thing is I cant necessarily see them going full 6 man rotation, but I can see them utilising their starters on 5 days rest to optimise quality and reduce injury risk. Woodruff and Peralta missed 22 starts between them last season

But they'll use off days and keep Ashby working in shorter bursts out of the pen, or use him as a day 6 starter every now and then, but they'll probably use the off days and just space things out a little bit 

5 minutes ago, jakedood said:

One thing is I cant necessarily see them going full 6 man rotation, but I can see them utilising their starters on 5 days rest to optimise quality and reduce injury risk. Woodruff and Peralta missed 22 starts between them last season

But they'll use off days and keep Ashby working in shorter bursts out of the pen, or use him as a day 6 starter every now and then, but they'll probably use the off days and just space things out a little bit 

I agree with that. Of course there will be some injuries, but basically a 5-man rotation gives each starter around 32 starts (162/5 = 32.4), while a 6-man rotation would give them 27. I don't want Burnes and Woodruff to lose five or six starts each. We need them pitching as much as they can.

As you mentioned, Ashby could be the odd man out and end up as the "long man/spot starter." I don't see Lauer getting this role, so if they want Ashby in the rotation, Lauer should be traded.

3 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I agree with that. Of course there will be some injuries, but basically a 5-man rotation gives each starter around 32 starts (162/5 = 32.4), while a 6-man rotation would give them 27. I don't want Burnes and Woodruff to lose five or six starts each. We need them pitching as much as they can.

As you mentioned, Ashby could be the odd man out and end up as the "long man/spot starter." I don't see Lauer getting this role, so if they want Ashby in the rotation, Lauer should be traded.

I think they'll want Ashby just throwing and developing this year, especially early on. He's got the raw talent just needs a little fine tuning by the looks of things, particularly in putting hitters away

Actually it's probably akin to them getting 29/30 starts in the end due to off days being used efficiently, still slightly less but if you get 2021 Corbin over 2022, that's worth it, plus can always go to 5 man when injuries occur, I actually think it may be the right thing to do, particularly for Freddys health and Ashby's development

17 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Houser's name popped up in a MLBTR article that Baltimore is searching for a Starter addition.  Guess a guy in Baltimore had history with Houser when in Houston as the tie to the idea. 

Any trade ideas if you sent Houser to Baltimore?  At first I wondered on Gunnar Henderson but I didn't realize he was like top 5 sitting on lists.  BRef listed in the 50s/70s preseason last season.  He would be a headliner in a Woodruff or Burnes deal.  Looking down MLB list among their top 10 prospects, there are what reads high risk, high reward types in Coby Mayo and Seth Johnson.  If Baltimore would part with both for Houser, I think that would be a trade to agree with for Houser.  The two are more 2024 potential than seeing games in 2023 so I'd venture the Brewers FO wouldn't make that trade expecting to find someone to play in 2023. 

Henderson and Rodriguez will not be traded by the Orioles for anything. I doubt the Brewers would even ask for Henderson in a trade because they know it would never happen. 

Houser should be a trade candidate. He rank’s no better than 7th on my Brewers ‘23 starters depth chart.

1. Woodruff 

2. Burnes

3. Peralta 

4. Lauer

5. Miley

6. Ashby 

7. A)Houser B)Junk C)Wilson

10. Small

11. Miller 

12. Alexander 

Then post S2 we can add Gasser. 

I don’t see much difference between the 3 I’ve got slotted in the number 7 position, so they can trade Houser any day now and I won’t lose a minutes sleep.

I actually like Junk & Wilson pitching out of the pen more than I like Houser pitching out of the bullpen. 

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Henderson and Rodriguez will not be traded by the Orioles for anything. I doubt the Brewers would even ask for Henderson in a trade because they know it would never happen. 

The original thought I said was Henderson but that was when it appeared he was a #70s prospect.  When checking the current list he's like 5 or something and I backed out to the next further down but with 2 prospects return.  If Baltimore is turning down Corbin Burnes for Gunnar Henderson as you suggest, what a mistake when looking for a SP.  Henderson appears their 3b but I'm not sure defensively he can stick there.  Milwaukee could send Anderson as insurance for the 3b position in any trade involving Henderson. 

15 hours ago, nate82 said:

I don see Baltimore giving up Mayo for Houser maybe Lauer but not Houser.  Johnson makes sense but I think you are looking at Kjerstad or Povich instead of Mayo.  

I'm kinda coming from the idea that Mayo's road would be blocked at 3b.  As he climbs levels the risky K pct should it climb would wipe out his current trade value.  In the trade idea Baltimore is buying and I'd definitely want something bigger than another OF or a not proving value with Povich.  I don't see the upside in both those players who are still well over a year away.  Johnson just makes sense when thinking SP/RP  He could Start early in games in the minors and as his innings climb move to RP and consider shuttling him to the Brewers if he appears ready.

Houser is definitely skilled to be a great RP.  Somewhere I said he lost velo on FB but didn't on this secondary pitches which I believe made him more hittable.  Plus his walk rate inched higher.  Depending where his velo sits likely determines his SP or RP role.

12 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

The original thought I said was Henderson but that was when it appeared he was a #70s prospect.  When checking the current list he's like 5 or something and I backed out to the next further down but with 2 prospects return.  If Baltimore is turning down Corbin Burnes for Gunnar Henderson as you suggest, what a mistake when looking for a SP.  Henderson appears their 3b but I'm not sure defensively he can stick there.  Milwaukee could send Anderson as insurance for the 3b position in any trade involving Henderson. 

 

I'm kinda coming from the idea that Mayo's road would be blocked at 3b.  As he climbs levels the risky K pct should it climb would wipe out his current trade value.  In the trade idea Baltimore is buying and I'd definitely want something bigger than another OF or a not proving value with Povich.  I don't see the upside in both those players who are still well over a year away.  Johnson just makes sense when thinking SP/RP  He could Start early in games in the minors and as his innings climb move to RP and consider shuttling him to the Brewers if he appears ready.

Houser is definitely skilled to be a great RP.  Somewhere I said he lost velo on FB but didn't on this secondary pitches which I believe made him more hittable.  Plus his walk rate inched higher.  Depending where his velo sits likely determines his SP or RP role.

Henderson’s BTV value is larger than Burnes. Trading someone with 6 years of control for someone with 2 years of control at the beginning of your competitive window is a great way of shortening said competitive window. 

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The difference is that Houser actually has a track record of being very effective pitching out of the pen. Junk and Wilson do not.

That same track record can help us acquire a player that helps the team more than a 7th starter.

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Henderson’s BTV value is larger than Burnes. Trading someone with 6 years of control for someone with 2 years of control at the beginning of your competitive window is a great way of shortening said competitive window. 

You're not saying something I don't already know. Though the BTV difference is absurdly shocking. 2years of #1 or 2 SP in all baseball still in Arbitration compared to 6years of #2-5 prospect in all baseball?  Outside factors that BTV isn't calculating in Burnes value would include-talks to extend after traded for vs waiting til his Free Agency and getting a return for future Qualifying Offer. This versus losing a draft pick signing Burnes 2 years from now.

Nobody knows the state of mind a GM sees their team. As a fan one has to see Baltimore as coming out of a rebuild with numerous promising young talent that will produce playoff teams when healthy.  The GM may have other intentions. Maybe influenced with owners preparing to sell. Or the GM believes the team can win now especially adding a Burnes on the team. 

So far for Henderson his fielding pct at 3b or SS is below .940 in his professional career minors included. Adames hasnt posted 1 season below .940. Urias career in the majors is higher at both SS or 3b.  What if a GM sees his future for 2b versus the SS/3B future Henderson is being ranked for?  It's highly unlikely but there can always be a chance.

Btw they updated Henderson's minors prospect rankings today as Baseball America lists him #1 heading in to 2023. Chourio is #3

55 minutes ago, SF70 said:

That same track record can help us acquire a player that helps the team more than a 7th starter.

Personally I'd feel much more confident with the bullpen if Houser was destined to only play there for the season.

34 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Personally I'd feel much more confident with the bullpen if Houser was destined to only play there for the season.

I get it. Most will probably agree with you. I think the bullpen has enough options that Houser won’t be missed if they trade him.

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Risk vs. reward scenario. If all they are going to get is a couple lottery-ticket types, it's probably best to hang onto him as a pen option. I would personally feel much more comfortable handing Houser the ball in a set-up role than most guys they have slated for pen work currently. 

But if you just simply don't like Houser, I get where you are coming from.

I think he gets hurt a smidgen because of the shift limitations, especially as a starter. But he’s proven he can pitch to good numbers out of the bullpen so, yes, the value returned would need to make it worth trading him.

I like Junk’s recent improvement (according to scouts) and I also like getting Bryse Wilson out of Pittsburgh’s PDS and into ours. Between the two the odds are decent we get a nice starter option, and or, multi-innings bullpen option.

Then there’s the enigma of Ethan Small and his lost release-point. I’m pretty sure they’ve been working on that fix in Arizona this winter. 

They also have Robert Gasser who could give them multi-innings out of the bullpen sometime after S2.

These are all potential multi-inning pen arms and that’s not even including Aaron Ashby.

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Certainly nice to have so many decent or potentially high-upside options available that it makes a guy like Houser expendable. I'm old enough to remember a time when this team would have penciled a pitcher like Houser into at least the #2 spot in their rotation, and been happy with it. 

Name two teams that have had too much pitching depth?  To be sure, every player is available in the right deal; however just because the Brewers are seemingly deep in rotation options doesn't necessarily make Houser expendable. 

Given his track records and cost, the Brewers are not simply going to give Adrian Houser away. I could be wrong, but I doubt a contending team is going to trade an everyday position player for Houser. Likewise, a rebuilding club isn't likely spend whatever major league assets they have to acquire Adrian Houser. Third, I doubt any team is going to trade blue chip minor league talent for a 30 year old pitcher who profiles as a back of the rotation starter or swingman, and has just two years of control remaining and is coming off a serious arm injury (flexor tendon strain).

Equally important, if the Brewers aren't going to get a major league player back to improve the '23 team's talent level, or some blue chip minor league talent for the future, what's the point then in trading Houser to begin with?

Houser at the moment has pretty low trade value. He’s not good enough as a 5th starter to interest a contender based on last years numbers. He doesn’t have enough upside to interest a rebuilding team as a reclamation project. His best place at least until the trade deadline is here in Milwaukee either in the bullpen or as rotation depth. 

Houser at the moment has pretty low trade value. He’s not good enough as a 5th starter to interest a contender based on last years numbers. He doesn’t have enough upside to interest a rebuilding team as a reclamation project. His best place at least until the trade deadline is here in Milwaukee either in the bullpen or as rotation depth. 

Doing a search over at Fangraphs, there are 114 pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings in 2021 + 2022.  In terms of xFIP, Houser's 4.45 places him #94 on the list.  In terms of SIERA, Houser's 4.87 places him #111 on that list.

MLB front offices look at these types of advanced metrics these days instead of looking at the more traditional stats when making deals for established players.  Houser's advanced metrics aren't just below average, they are pretty bad when compared to the rest of the league.  I'd bet pretty much every front office sees him as a potential inning-eater and nothing really beyond that.

My guess on a return would be one lottery ticket prospect and one organizational filler prospect.  I'd be surprised if they could get a top 15 player off of any team's prospect list during the off-season.  Now if they got into the regular season and a couple team's rotations got wiped out by injury, maybe the Brewers could get more for Houser at that time.

Think of it this way.  Let's say the Brewers needed a starting pitcher.  What would you give up for Brad Keller?  In the 2021 + 2022 timeframe, Keller has a 4.46 xFIP (95th) and a 4.70 SIERA (107th).  So what would you give up for Keller?  Robert Gasser?  Jeferson Quero?  Robert Moore?  Carlos Rodriguez (the pitcher)?  Zavier Warren?  Adam Seminaris?  Those are Brewer prospects #5, #10, #15, #20, #25, #30 on Fangraph's most recent top Brewer prospects list.  What you would give up for Keller is probably not so different from what other teams would give up for Houser.  And yes, there is a difference in service time, but we aren't talking about annual 3 WAR players here.  Houser's average bWAR/fWAR over the last two season is 0.9 WAR, so when you look at his arbitration salary, it's not like an extra year adds a whole lot of extra value.

Doing a search over at Fangraphs, there are 114 pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings in 2021 + 2022.  In terms of xFIP, Houser's 4.45 places him #94 on the list.  In terms of SIERA, Houser's 4.87 places him #111 on that list.

MLB front offices look at these types of advanced metrics these days instead of looking at the more traditional stats when making deals for established players.  Houser's advanced metrics aren't just below average, they are pretty bad when compared to the rest of the league.  I'd bet pretty much every front office sees him as a potential inning-eater and nothing really beyond that.

My guess on a return would be one lottery ticket prospect and one organizational filler prospect.  I'd be surprised if they could get a top 15 player off of any team's prospect list during the off-season.  Now if they got into the regular season and a couple team's rotations got wiped out by injury, maybe the Brewers could get more for Houser at that time.

Think of it this way.  Let's say the Brewers needed a starting pitcher.  What would you give up for Brad Keller?  In the 2021 + 2022 timeframe, Keller has a 4.46 xFIP (95th) and a 4.70 SIERA (107th).  So what would you give up for Keller?  Robert Gasser?  Jeferson Quero?  Robert Moore?  Carlos Rodriguez (the pitcher)?  Zavier Warren?  Adam Seminaris?  Those are Brewer prospects #5, #10, #15, #20, #25, #30 on Fangraph's most recent top Brewer prospects list.  What you would give up for Keller is probably not so different from what other teams would give up for Houser.  And yes, there is a difference in service time, but we aren't talking about annual 3 WAR players here.  Houser's average bWAR/fWAR over the last two season is 0.9 WAR, so when you look at his arbitration salary, it's not like an extra year adds a whole lot of extra value.

I think it might make sense to hold onto all the starting pitchers until spring training and wait for the inevitable injuries. A guy like Houser or Lauer could look a whole lot better in mid march to a team that just lost one of their top guys. Or the Brewers could have injuries and they could need them.