Adames Unlikely to Be Traded, Possibly in Extension Talks with Brewers

I want nothing to do with an extension for Adames. I could probably write a 100 page paper on why it is a terrible idea with examples and would be lucky do write a few pages on why it may be a good idea.

He isn't the type of player to give a massive deal to. If someone wants to view him as a safe bet elite SS and give a package to match it...I would ship him out easily. 

If you scroll to Baseball Savant, among RH bats, Adames had the worst wOBA  with over 150PAs when facing a shift at .248.    When looking at wOBA non-shifts he's at .350 and top 50[48 or 49) in baseball above 150PAs. Was 120th when taking all PAs.

So this season his numbers should improve BA/OB.  

His birthday is September 2nd so he'll be near 27/28 the remainder of his 2 team controlled years. Extension length is a little awkward. 2 extra years puts his FA at age 31. Guessing he wouldn't want testing FA any older.  So he had the comment he'd like to finish his career here. We must be looking +5, 6? Extended years. Finishing age 34/35.

Jean Segura maybe a comp in terms of what FA value to age Adames would be looking at with current WAR history prior.  That turned out as about 4/60mil for Segura. Probably inflate that to 16.5Mil or about 4/66 beyond extension with say a 17.5 5th yr option?  This doesn't include the 2yrs remaining. (9/13 mil what mlbtr projected him)  so 6/88 with option 7/105.  We on a good ball park?  

Looking at trade side. Vargas seems like your target 3b/1b.  But I don't see how LA parts with him as they lack a 3b beyond him. Not sure FAs at 3b are 800-850OPS. Guess they'd  have a year to figure it out.  We should get some more beyond Vargas but that's my headliner.

Edit add-Looked in to a few more prospects and Ryan Pepiot stands out as the 2nd get.  He and Vargas would be major league ready while having 6 yrs each team control. Pepiot has legit SP potential but may also be Closer floor.  Sounds like a D.Williams change-up with mid 90s FB.  Improving the team at 2 positions and saving 10mil+.  

Positioning yourself better to extend Woodruff or Burnes.  Hard to not pass on that future.

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, exactly. 

If they get a cost-controlled Adames, it allows them to spend their money on other FAs. Unlike the Brewers, the Dodgers are willing to spend their "savings."
But, if we trade with the dodgers, it might make sense to trade Adames with Burnes. I'm sure they covet Burnes.

9 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Well if we pretend that this site is gospel and on the money for a moment, we have four points coming our way.   So something like this to make it completely equal like you are thinking.

 

 

 

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Lux	2B	30.8
Miller	RHP	30.9
Nastrini	RHP	2.7
Ryan	RHP	1.9
Vargas	1B	25.5

 

 

Total Value: 91.80

 

                 Dodgers

 

 

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Adames	SS	41.3
Taylor	OF	12.7
Woodruff	SP	37.8

 

 

Total Value: 91.80

Woodruff is massively undervalued on BTV. To have less than half of Burnes value is silly, so any trade involved Woodruff using that site isn’t gonna work for me.

12 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Well if we pretend that this site is gospel and on the money for a moment, we have four points coming our way.   So something like this to make it completely equal like you are thinking.

 

 

 

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Lux	2B	30.8
Miller	RHP	30.9
Nastrini	RHP	2.7
Ryan	RHP	1.9
Vargas	1B	25.5

 

 

Total Value: 91.80

 

                 Dodgers

 

 

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Adames	SS	41.3
Taylor	OF	12.7
Woodruff	SP	37.8

 

 

Total Value: 91.80

Why would the Brewers trade for Lux? 2b? Well past the time on asking for Lux in a trade. And adding Woodruff doesn't make sense alongside Adames.  You would be setting yourself up for 1 sided extension talks with Burnes. I'd want pressure on one or the other that each side has an offer and whomever takes their offer first, the other offer is off the affordable table.

My thought for Vargas/Pepiot leaves about 5m more on 1 more player LA needs to provide when only trading Adames.  I'd lightly question LA would need to add another with the FA market but a Catcher named Dalton Rushing has 6M value to even it out. Dodgers #1 prospect is a C so the depth isn't needed and they part with a lottery ticket.  

The move completes a 3b/1b RH bat future with Vargas. Urias/Turang can play SS platoon. Wong/Urias depth at 2b. Brosseau backs up from the PH role. With RH platoon starts.

Pepiot has a pitching future whether mid starter or late inning RP.

Saved money.

19 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Just saw this and checked on possible deals.   Here is the best I could come up with .

 

Lux (IF), Miller (SP), and Vargas (1B)

***(trade value of 87+)

for 

Adames , Woodruff and Tyrone Taylor 
***(trade value of 91+)

Figure we might as well add Woody if dealing Adames if we can get these three back.   Would you do it??

I'd probably hold out and ask for another lower rated arm or two. Bruns, Kopp, Knack...a couple lower rated prospects with big velocity but other issues...usually command that's kinda holding them back. 

Without knowing the parameters of a deal it's hard to judge if it's worth it. I don't think they'd be able to sign him and one of Woodruff and Burnes so it might be a sign they know they can't extend either of them.

I would think the Dodgers keep Lux, I would perfer Michael Busch anyway. 

Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Emmett Sheehan, Caleb Ferguson 

Busch would make an interesting MI combo with Turang and could fall back on 1B if it doesn't work defensively. I would start Pepiot as the 5th starter and move Ashby to a early Hader type role to at least start the year. Sheehan is a quality and imo underappreciated prospect and Ferguson provides a late inning LHP option.

I would offer Willy like 5/83 (9/14 and 3/60), if he wants a bunch more years or AAV, I would be perfectly fine sending him off for a solid package (at least twice what we got for Hader).

I'm not really a big fan of extending guys when they're already well into their arby years and are basically getting full free agent money. The Brewers should be deciding whether to offer Mitchell an extension, and whether they'll do the same to Turang, Frelick, Chourio, etc. over the next few seasons rather than trying to figure out how to work a nine-figure extension into future payrolls. Therefore, I'm more on the side of trading all three of Burnes/Adames/Woodruff prior to them hitting free agency. It probably makes sense to trade away one of them now instead of trying to unload all three in the same offseason.

If the Brewers were to extend one of them, I'd probably want it to be Woodruff. As far as Adames, I don't really like the "all or nothing" approach in hitters, and his OBP probably makes him a better 5-6 hitter than top of the order guy. He's a nice player to have on the team, but not someone I'm giddy about locking in to a big-money, multi-year deal. Trade him either now or next offseason, let Turang man SS, and add a bunch of top prospects talent that will be cheap and under control for six years each. 

Some day maybe I'll pick a big market team as my "second team," and I can get excited about them paying money for a "name I know." As a Brewer fan, I have learned that paying money for that name usually isn't the best use of finite resources. Let someone else sign them to that big contract while we stockpile young talent that plays for a discounted salary.

If we trade Adames while he's still in his arby years, we are very likely to get more value out of what we get back than we would receive from holding onto him. If we extend him, he will have zero "surplus value," so we'd have to hope he plays up to his contract while we try to field a team around him without a ton of money to spend.

I think part of the reason people like the thought of extending players is because we "should" be able to do it, and signing that extension shows we're one of the "big boys." It sucks to have to watch guys we've cheered for leave to play elsewhere because we're "too cheap." In reality, we're probably better off with young talent and financial flexibility than we are by having a "known player" on the team along with the big, guaranteed contract it took to get him.

Extensions signed this late in arby are basically free agent deals, and small market teams will never maintain competitiveness by building through free agent deals. 

9 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I'm not really a big fan of extending guys when they're already well into their arby years and are basically getting full free agent money. The Brewers should be deciding whether to offer Mitchell an extension, and whether they'll do the same to Turang, Frelick, Chourio, etc. over the next few seasons rather than trying to figure out how to work a nine-figure extension into future payrolls. Therefore, I'm more on the side of trading all three of Burnes/Adames/Woodruff prior to them hitting free agency. It probably makes sense to trade away one of them now instead of trying to unload all three in the same offseason.

If the Brewers were to extend one of them, I'd probably want it to be Woodruff. As far as Adames, I don't really like the "all or nothing" approach in hitters, and his OBP probably makes him a better 5-6 hitter than top of the order guy. He's a nice player to have on the team, but not someone I'm giddy about locking in to a big-money, multi-year deal. Trade him either now or next offseason, let Turang man SS, and add a bunch of top prospects talent that will be cheap and under control for six years each. 

Some day maybe I'll pick a big market team as my "second team," and I can get excited about them paying money for a "name I know." As a Brewer fan, I have learned that paying money for that name usually isn't the best use of finite resources. Let someone else sign them to that big contract while we stockpile young talent that plays for a discounted salary.

If we trade Adames while he's still in his arby years, we are very likely to get more value out of what we get back than we would receive from holding onto him. If we extend him, he will have zero "surplus value," so we'd have to hope he plays up to his contract while we try to field a team around him without a ton of money to spend.

I think part of the reason people like the thought of extending players is because we "should" be able to do it, and signing that extension shows we're one of the "big boys." It sucks to have to watch guys we've cheered for leave to play elsewhere because we're "too cheap." In reality, we're probably better off with young talent and financial flexibility than we are by having a "known player" on the team along with the big, guaranteed contract it took to get him.

Extensions signed this late in arby are basically free agent deals, and small market teams will never maintain competitiveness by building through free agent deals. 

For the most part I'm with you on this. If he signs a deal that buys out his last two years of arbitration and adds a year to it I'd be ok with it. The cost certainty has value and it wouldn't be so long that the final years are bound to be negative in value. If it becomes essentially a free agent deal that extends him long term then not so much.

On 11/26/2022 at 6:53 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Now it's being reported the Dodgers have expressed interest in Adames. Huh.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/dodgers-have-shown-interest-in-willy-adames.html

This falls in the same category as all those old years of Hader rumors.  They've shown interest -- so what?  In all reality, it most likely means absolutely nothing.  This feels exactly like the same sort of speculation we've heard for years re: the Mets & especially the Yankees, when they reportedly show interest in half of the good players in baseball and the reporters who follow them (and especially their fans) often discuss it as though it automatically gives them the inevitable right to acquire the player -- and usually for their fringe guys, B- prospects, & other miscellaneous roster crud.

9 hours ago, MNBrew said:

This falls in the same category as all those old years of Hader rumors.  They've shown interest -- so what?  In all reality, it most likely means absolutely nothing.  This feels exactly like the same sort of speculation we've heard for years re: the Mets & especially the Yankees, when they reportedly show interest in half of the good players in baseball and the reporters who follow them (and especially their fans) often discuss it as though it automatically gives them the inevitable right to acquire the player -- and usually for their fringe guys, B- prospects, & other miscellaneous roster crud.

Yeah, that's true. It's also just good to know. Maybe they don't reach an agreement and the Dodgers like him enough...AND need a CFer.

Mitchell+Adames for Vargas/Miller plus...a couple of those power arms could make sense for both sides. 

Adds that big RHed bat, a potential TOR arm while the Dodgers saved 35M this year on Turner or Correa(which would destroy that fan base) and with Bellinger getting non-tendered, Mitchell would be a good fit in CF for them. 

The trade favors the Dodgers on the ever holy Trade Value Simulator, so they throw in Bruns or Knack...or both. 

The fans are are always...ridiculously undervaluing the return...probably in the same way I'm suggesting they give up two guys who will probably play huge roles for the next 6 years for cheap for Adames and Mitchell. Two elite prospects. I'm sure the wouldn't be what most of us want or that Friedman(or hopefully Arnold) uses that site. The Dodgers always find a way to keep the legit studs off limits while trading the Kiebert Ruiz rather than Cartaya or Bobby Miller as the Dodgers found out when they got hosed for Scherzer and two years of Turner. 

I am a little curious why Cartaya is no longer listed as their #1 prospect. Must be a mistake on MLB pipeline;

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/dodgers/

Listening to MLB Network radio this morning, Xavier Scruggs thinks Dodgers will trade for Adames... Guess we'll see what happens here.

I think we need to hold onto him for 23 season and see what kind of player he really is... I believe Willy is closer to 2021 player he was.

On 11/29/2022 at 9:14 AM, UpandIn said:

Yeah, that's true. It's also just good to know. Maybe they don't reach an agreement and the Dodgers like him enough...AND need a CFer.

Mitchell+Adames for Vargas/Miller plus...a couple of those power arms could make sense for both sides. 

Adds that big RHed bat, a potential TOR arm while the Dodgers saved 35M this year on Turner or Correa(which would destroy that fan base) and with Bellinger getting non-tendered, Mitchell would be a good fit in CF for them. 

The trade favors the Dodgers on the ever holy Trade Value Simulator, so they throw in Bruns or Knack...or both. 

 

The fans are are always...ridiculously undervaluing the return...probably in the same way I'm suggesting they give up two guys who will probably play huge roles for the next 6 years for cheap for Adames and Mitchell. Two elite prospects. I'm sure the wouldn't be what most of us want or that Friedman(or hopefully Arnold) uses that site. The Dodgers always find a way to keep the legit studs off limits while trading the Kiebert Ruiz rather than Cartaya or Bobby Miller as the Dodgers found out when they got hosed for Scherzer and two years of Turner. 

I am a little curious why Cartaya is no longer listed as their #1 prospect. Must be a mistake on MLB pipeline;

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/dodgers/

He shows up as #1 for me. This is a drastic over rank. Kinda like that Yankee Jason Dominquez. Cartaya didn't play in 2020 then in 2021 he finished as #20 in the rankings with Rookie-very little A ball experience. Last season he had some A again and little A+ where his k rate jumped to around the 30s. He's 5th year and placed on the 40man while 2years or more away if at all(say at AA that k rate jumps in to the 40s since pitching is consistently better) and I'm not sure he reads as a sure thing defensively at catcher. So one of those type catcher no wait 1b/RF where that speed will equal awful defense.  Our Catcher has a better chance being a ML catcher in 2 u

years than this guy.  

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

Listening to MLB Network radio this morning, Xavier Scruggs thinks Dodgers will trade for Adames... Guess we'll see what happens here.

I think we need to hold onto him for 23 season and see what kind of player he really is... I believe Willy is closer to 2021 player he was.

What would be a fair return for Adames?  I'd want Miguel Vargas and a pitching prospect for sure.  Probably not getting Miller but either Stone or Pepiot would be fair.

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

What would be a fair return for Adames?  I'd want Miguel Vargas and a pitching prospect for sure.  Probably not getting Miller but either Stone or Pepiot would be fair.

Busch and Miller for me... Id ask for Pages or Vargas as well.

We dont need to trade Adames, Dodgers would need to overpay for him.

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

He shows up as #1 for me. This is a drastic over rank. Kinda like that Yankee Jason Dominquez. Cartaya didn't play in 2020 then in 2021 he finished as #20 in the rankings with Rookie-very little A ball experience. Last season he had some A again and little A+ where his k rate jumped to around the 30s. He's 5th year and placed on the 40man while 2years or more away if at all(say at AA that k rate jumps in to the 40s since pitching is consistently better) and I'm not sure he reads as a sure thing defensively at catcher. So one of those type catcher no wait 1b/RF where that speed will equal awful defense.  Our Catcher has a better chance being a ML catcher in 2 u

years than this guy.  

He's showing up again now, but when I posted this, Miller was #1 and I didn't see Cartaya on the list. I figured it was a mistake, but I thought maybe he'd been involved in some trade or...something. 

I've never seen him play, so I have no idea if he's overrated defensively. His defensive grades are good, 60 arm, 55 field, but a lot of passed balls and a lot pct of caught stealing. The strikeouts don't seem like they should be all that concerning. a 14% walk rate and a 27% K rate? Especially for a guy with a ~.300 ISO? Those seem...pretty reasonable. 

Compared to Chourio(for example) who had a similar K rate and half the BB rate...assuming a jump to 40% seems a little fatalistic. His K rate didn't jump when he went up to HiA, but his power and BB rate did. Obviously AA is a bigger jump, but...it was also his age 20 season. 

I won't argue with you on Quero though. I have seem him play and outside of walk rate, he looks like a pretty safe bet to be a solid MLB catcher if not more. He looks quick, we all saw how well he did in the AZF League. I thought he should be a top 100...and I suspect he will by next year.

Meanwhile Dominguez almost couldn't be accurately rated. I've seen a lot of different comps for him, but MLB Pipeline uses Trout, Mantle and Bo Jackson. That is just...insane. But that's how it goes for Yankees prospects. When have they not been overrated? Maybe the Dodgers as well, but their prospects seem to hit more often. 

7 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

What would be a fair return for Adames?  I'd want Miguel Vargas and a pitching prospect for sure.  Probably not getting Miller but either Stone or Pepiot would be fair.

Vargas and then...they've got so many pitching prospects with big ceilings but you're probably right about Miller. Stone was a guy that they're supposedly very high on based on their reluctance to include him in a trade last deadline. Vargas plus any of the 3 would probably be a good deal. 

I just wonder if the Dodgers would do THAT deal. Vargas is a guy people think will contend for batting titles in the future. He can play 3B(*NOT well, but he can apparently play it) and he's cheap. For a team that would have had a payroll over 300 last year if not for Bauer's suspension, seems like they'd be better served to sign a FA and then keep the cheap young studs.

But maybe they want to stay below the luxury tax line for a year to reset the penalties. 

3 hours ago, UpandIn said:

He's showing up again now, but when I posted this, Miller was #1 and I didn't see Cartaya on the list. I figured it was a mistake, but I thought maybe he'd been involved in some trade or...something. 

I've never seen him play, so I have no idea if he's overrated defensively. His defensive grades are good, 60 arm, 55 field, but a lot of passed balls and a lot pct of caught stealing. The strikeouts don't seem like they should be all that concerning. a 14% walk rate and a 27% K rate? Especially for a guy with a ~.300 ISO? Those seem...pretty reasonable. 

Compared to Chourio(for example) who had a similar K rate and half the BB rate...assuming a jump to 40% seems a little fatalistic. His K rate didn't jump when he went up to HiA, but his power and BB rate did. Obviously AA is a bigger jump, but...it was also his age 20 season. 

I won't argue with you on Quero though. I have seem him play and outside of walk rate, he looks like a pretty safe bet to be a solid MLB catcher if not more. He looks quick, we all saw how well he did in the AZF League. I thought he should be a top 100...and I suspect he will by next year.

Meanwhile Dominguez almost couldn't be accurately rated. I've seen a lot of different comps for him, but MLB Pipeline uses Trout, Mantle and Bo Jackson. That is just...insane. But that's how it goes for Yankees prospects. When have they not been overrated? Maybe the Dodgers as well, but their prospects seem to hit more often. 

There is a 2.5 year age gap between Cartaya and Chourio. Chourio has 2 more seasons before needing to be protected on 40man. Cartaya is there now while near virtual game experience at A/A+ level.  We've seen how poor k rates can worsen with Hiura. The pitching he'll see at AA will be improved both K% and BB% this season will go a long way determining what type of hitter becomes.  If Cartaya is sticking at Catcher, how he holds up as 100 games turn to 120 is another thing to watch for.  Chourio won't have that demanding a defensive position, keeping his offensive beyond 100games isn't a question.

Cartaya may very well be a top 10 current prospect, but my opinion is he is in no way a top 10 prospect trade value. Forcing you to put on your 40man when at a minimum 1year away from playing 1 game at the Major league level. Strong chance he is 2 years away. Nothing like holding down 1 of your 40man spots 2years seeing 0 games played.

Give me Vargas many times over Cartaya. Cartaya should be behind Vargas in prospect rankings.

3 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

There is a 2.5 year age gap between Cartaya and Chourio. Chourio has 2 more seasons before needing to be protected on 40man. Cartaya is there now while near virtual game experience at A/A+ level.  We've seen how poor k rates can worsen with Hiura. The pitching he'll see at AA will be improved both K% and BB% this season will go a long way determining what type of hitter becomes.  If Cartaya is sticking at Catcher, how he holds up as 100 games turn to 120 is another thing to watch for.  Chourio won't have that demanding a defensive position, keeping his offensive beyond 100games isn't a question.

Cartaya may very well be a top 10 current prospect, but my opinion is he is in no way a top 10 prospect trade value. Forcing you to put on your 40man when at a minimum 1year away from playing 1 game at the Major league level. Strong chance he is 2 years away. Nothing like holding down 1 of your 40man spots 2years seeing 0 games played.

Give me Vargas many times over Cartaya. Cartaya should be behind Vargas in prospect rankings.

I was simply using Chourio as an example. I don't think a K rate of 27% if it comes with a BB rate of 14% playing the most difficult position to develop is really a concern. Especially if that same player is putting up a .290 and .225 ISO slugging and hitting for as much power as Cartaya. Gunnar, Volpe, Gunnar, Elle De la Cruz, they all had high K rates with lower BB rates than Cartaya...and few hit for the same type of power. 

The 40 man thing is also...really really minor when talking about a prospect of that caliber. Even the Dodgers have guys on their 40 man that they could do without. Johnny DeLuca for example. A 25th round pick who's not among their top 30 prospects...who hasn't done anything particularly impressive and has a handful of games above HiA and will be 25 next year. 

But I also never suggested we trade for Cartaya. I just pointed out he wasn't among their top 30 prospects when I posted that link. For starters because...I'd just prefer to get arms back and the Dodgers have made it pretty clear they don't want to trade him after the Nats trade...and then their reluctance to include him this year in a deal for Soto.

So if they did trade him, it'd likely be a 1 for 1 trade and I'd rather the Brewers get back a pitching prospect or 2. But I'm not sure they'd even include him in a trade unless it was for Woodruff or Burnes. 

I wonder if Adames doesn't sign an extension if they trade him away and sign one of the 4 FA. That could really set us up for the future with 2 to 3 prospects and a SS signed for 5 to 7 years.

1 hour ago, Ewitkows1 said:

I wonder if Adames doesn't sign an extension if they trade him away and sign one of the 4 FA. That could really set us up for the future with 2 to 3 prospects and a SS signed for 5 to 7 years.

I doubt it just because it has seemed like the FO intention to give Turang a shot at some point. Also with Yeli it would be hard to give someone else 30 million and if we did it would be Burnes or Woody before, I would think.