Dusty Baker is back at it (Latest: Patterson leading off?... reply #63)

[Baldkin]

"Guys in the middle should score about close to equal to what they drive in. On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control."

Reds Article

 

I almost feel sorry for Reds fans.... almost.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's like striped bass fishing...

[razzzorsharp]

Toothpick>Dusty

[brewjihad]

He also trotted out the "clogging up the bases" line...

 

It's already been torn apart by Fire Joe Morgan.

[bullox]

What are you guys talking about? Great job Dusty, keep it up! We love the work you are putting in.

[TooLiveBrew]

Let Homer Bailey just throw this year - pitch counts... they're like OBP. Some of these guys are throwing pitches so efficiently, they're not really just throwing anymore.

[trwi7]

Let Homer Bailey just throw this year - pitch counts... they're like OBP. Some of these guys are throwing pitches so efficiently, they're not really just throwing anymore.

 

I'd like to extend that advice to Johnny Cueto as well (who I like more and think will be better than Bailey.)

[brettac1]

"Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases."

 

Yes. That's like his punchline - a mantra, if you will.

[JJHardy7]

It's just looking too much into one quote. Dusty may have done some things that don't make a ton of sense to a baseball fan -- but he keeps getting hired for millions of dollars. I'll sign up for that gig -- he must be doing something right. I'm just not a fan of analyzing every quote -- the product on the field will tell the story.

 

I guess I could say that some here that are all take pitch and OBP crazy -- Dusty is talking to you. I can see what he means in certain terms.

[bullox]

All I know is that looking at ball four and swinging and missing at it have two very different outcomes.

[JJHardy7]

All I know is that looking at ball four and swinging and missing at it have two very different outcomes.

 

How do you get the best of both worlds? Could it possibly be that OBP isn't really a true indicator for every player? I think that is what Dusty is getting at. Not every player has a great idea of the strike zone, but OBP wants you to get on base. That's the entire point.

[crewcrazy]

I especially liked this part of the FJM post on this article:

 

On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control.

 

And if they swing...and get on base...they have increased their...what, Dusty? Their...what? Their "On-blank-blank." Sound it out. Their "On-blank-Percentage." You can do it: their...okay. Forget it.

 

Some of these quotes are pretty paradoxical. Dusty wants his big hitters to drive runs in, but he doesn't want them clogging up the bases with OBP. What are they supposed to do, hit like 50 sac flies and 50 home runs?

[owbc]

I really think all he's saying is that if Prince Fielder is up with 2 on and 2 out, he'd rather have him swing when he's ahead in the count than load up the bases for whoever is behind him, even if the end result is a lower OBP.

 

At least that's what I hope he is saying, for the sake of Reds fans.

[adambr2]

I think the idiocy in anyone who says "clogging up the bases" is a problem is pretty evident, no matter how you look at the quote. If Dusty Baker wants to think that reaching base a high percentage of the time is overrated, I think that's great -- for us.

The game has passed him by. His accomplishments in Chicago and the arms of Prior and Wood speak wonders to that.

 

[1992casey]

Dusty said:

---

I'm big on driving in runs and scoring runs.

Scoring runs always involves getting hitters on base, and driving in runs almost always involves getting hitters on base.

 

[logan82]

I bet Dusty is going to love Adam Dunn.

[homer]

"Dusty may have done some things that don't make a ton of sense to a baseball fan -- but he keeps getting hired for millions of dollars. I'll sign up for that gig -- he must be doing something right."

 

Or there are a lot of owners/GMs that don't know what they're doing. Not to mention, having Barry Bonds and a healthy Kerry Wood and Mark Prior tend to make a manager look pretty bright.

[JJHardy7]

Or there are a lot of owners/GMs that don't know what they're doing. Not to mention, having Barry Bonds and a healthy Kerry Wood and Mark Prior tend to make a manager look pretty bright.

 

That could be, but I don't think it's really important to take every quote he says and try and make him look like an idiot. Of all the interviews and such that go on in spring training every manager can look foolish just looking at a quote on a piece of paper. I'm not going to judge him by some comment...I'll see what he can do with the Reds this year. I'm not a huge Dusty fan by any stretch, but talk is cheap...especially in February.

[Oldcity]

But it's not like this is an isolated quote. Dusty has made hoards of idiotic statements like this over the years.

[Tbadder]

Poor Dusty...

 

I'l give him credit for one thing here. IF, and that's a big IF, IF he means that some players are becoming so timid at the plate in pursuit of a high OBP that it affects their SLG then he may have a small point. But I'm reading a lot into that.

 

Otherwise he's just fundamentally wrong.

[Thurston Fluff]

But it's not like this is an isolated quote. Dusty has made hoards of idiotic statements like this over the years.

 

So did Yogi Berra yet everyone understood what he meant. I'm with JJ on this one. I think he means something slightly differant than what he's saying. I think he isn't saying a stikeout is better than a walk if the ball 5" off the plate and unhittable. I think it's more along the lines of why walk on a borderline pitch that could have been hit for extra bases. Or even more improtatnly striking out taking a close pitch in an effort to raise the OBP. I'd be willing to bet his players understands what he means by it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Many factors play roles in determining how good a player's OBP is, but the one that stands out the most, IMO, is pitch selection/knowledge of the strike zone. You could be the best natural hitter on earth, but if you can't identify pitch and location well, you're not getting on base consistently. Good hitters have to be able to recognize a mistake pitch, and take advantage of it. I think some advocates of OBP-only player analysis would rather have every hitter take two strikes before taking the bat off his shoulders...there are very few hitters who are comfortable hitting with two strikes, especially with the stuff major league caliber pitchers possess. OBP will take care of itself if hitters have good pitch selection and react to pitches rather than trying to outhink or outguess a pitcher.

I'm probably giving Baker too much credit, but I think what he's trying to say is that he wants his 'money hitters' to be aggressive in their happy zone at the plate in RBI situations. The words he uses to explain his position really make him look foolish, and I guess maybe he is if he'd rather keep the bases unclogged instead of not swinging at bad pitches. Hitters need to take their walks when pitchers don't give them good pitches to hit - what I think Baker's implying is that good hitters need to earn their money when a pitcher gives them an oppotunity to swing at hittable pitches, regardless of what the count is. My Exhibit A to this would be the 1st-pitch, walk-off HR Aramis hit off Cordero last season.

This whole argument is a two-edged sword, and both sides of the argument can use the same line of thinking to say they're in the right...the main statistical component of OBP is batting average - in order to have a batting average at all, hitters need to swing the bat. In order for that batting average/slugging % to be high, hitters need to be able to identify the best pitches to make solid contact...if they can do that, the pitches they don't swing at tend to be balls which draw walks, also increasing their OBP.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think some advocates of OBP-only player analysis would rather have every hitter take two strikes before taking the bat off his shoulders...

 

Who argues this? No one out there is literally operating with "OBP-only player analysis" to my knowledge.

 

 

OBP will take care of itself if hitters have good pitch selection and react to pitches rather than trying to outhink or outguess a pitcher.

100% agreed, as would most proponents of OBP-heavy lineups, imho. Adam Dunn draws tons of BBs due to a keen eye at the plate, power that pitchers fear, and taking tons of pitches. There aren't that many like him. Most guys that draw plenty of BBs do so due directly to your listed approach. Todd Helton is a fantastic example (imo) of this quoted approach.

[monty57]

Or there are a lot of owners/GMs that don't know what they're doing.

 

And yet somehow these idiots are billionaires while the geniuses of the world spend their time ripping them at firejoemorgan.com for how little they know and how incompetent they are at doing their job.

 

Sorry, not trying to be harsh, but there are multiple ways to win, as has been proven year after year as different teams use different styles to win. I agree that OBP is extremely important, but I understand what he means when he says that some players are so obsessed with taking a walk that they won't swing. I don't think anyone is an advocate for swinging at everything (except maybe Vlad Guerrero and Johnny Estrada), but there are a lot of players that will take a fastball down the middle every first pitch because they're told not to swing at the first pitch.

[TooLiveBrew]

And yet somehow these idiots are billionaires

 

There are many examples that money has nothing to do with intelligence or lack thereof.

 

 

Guys take so much on the first pitch due to the swing in success rates working with a '1-0' v. a '0-1' count... just mho.