Is there any chance of Sheets in a Brewer uniform beyond '08? (Merged with Lose Lose Situation)

[danzig6767]

Sheets is such a dilemma IMO

 

His importance to this team is so obvious when he's healthy and when he's not. He's due to be a free agent and with the huge cash high end starters get, Sheets injury issues the last few years, and the young kids not that far from getting paid, Ben likely is gone.

 

Because of those issues, i'll understand while the people in charge let Sheets walk. We are going to miss him though, most teams that make the playoffs also have that No.1 starter who can shut any team down.

 

I put myself in the place of Melvin or Attanasio and the Sheets situation is frustrating. They can see how much better the team is when Ben is healthy and pitching well, but if they suck it up and pay Sheets and he continues with the inability to stay healthy, a 15-18 million per year contract is a killer to a smaller market team.

 

There is big risk in letting Sheets leave, but IMO the risk is bigger in paying him big cash and then Ben not staying healthy enough to justify the big contract.

[clancyphile]

My thoughts? Offer Sheets five years, $55 million, particularly after this start. We have an idea of what he can do, and #1 starters are very rare in the baseball world. At the same time, offer Fielder a 10-year deal in the range of Jeter's after this year, with Braun to get a similar offer when he is arby-eligible.

[Gopher74]

Actually there were 19 of them in 2007.

 

His point was obviously that those players don't exist on the free agent market as he went on to say how teams lock them up, ect..ect..

I don't think it's hard to realize that he didn't mean that players who win 15 games while pitching 200 innings don't exist.

But maybe it's time the Brewers become the team who swoops in and takes advantage of a situation where a Marlins/Pirates type team is willing to sell off its top starter for a package of heralded nuggets like the great Brad Nelson, Zach Jackson, and Tim Dillard.

 

That MIGHT get you a guy like Matt Morris. That's not going to get you a top starter on any team other than the Toldeo Mud Hens or whatever.

 

I fully expect to see Ben Sheets in another uniform in 2009, but that, along with the end of a few other contracts can free up $15+ million to pursue an ace. And maybe this next ace won't be subject to 2-month injuries from paper cuts, or vertigo, every season.

 

I don't think he wants to pitch. That's probably it. Sorry, this isn't in blue. It should be. Almost every power pitcher is going to miss time for injuries. It's just been his bad luck that he's missed them in consecutive seasons, and while your paper cut comment was really, and I mean really funny, it's also something I'd expect on the ESPN board. I've come to think of this board as having a little bit higher baseball IQ.

 

Sheets missed time in 05 and 06 for his back. He had an incredibly rare ear infection that has never returned a 3rd time, tore a tendon in his finger, and suffered a hamstring injury. If you think you can find a power pitcher that's immune to all of those things, more power to you, but his elbow and shoulder are fine, and he's a helluva lot better than just about anyone else we could even think of signing.

 

Again though, kudos on the "paper cut" comment.

 

All I'm saying is, if Ben is willing to provide a discount, given all the time we've paid him to sit on his can and NOT pitch for us over the years, then yeah, I'd re-sign him. But that won't happen, and his DL time will be absorbed by some other team with a lot more money than we have.

 

The Brewers have money. In fact, the Brewers make a lot of money and will make more this next off-season. They can easily afford Sheets if they decide to without it crippling them from making any other moves.

[Gopher74]

My thoughts? Offer Sheets five years, $55 million, particularly after this start. We have an idea of what he can do, and #1 starters are very rare in the baseball world. At the same time, offer Fielder a 10-year deal in the range of Jeter's after this year, with Braun to get a similar offer when he is arby-eligible.

You want to give Prince a 10 year deal at about 19 per year? First of all, with three years left of arbitration that's a huge number.

 

Second, Prince is not the guy you want to lock into 10 years with.

 

And I don't see Sheets taking a deal anywhere near that. I think if you want 5 years for Sheets, then you're talking about a discount on the yearly salary, but still around 14 or so. Maybe 5 years, 70 million, but even that would be a hometown discount.

 

[Invader3K]

My thoughts? Offer Sheets five years, $55 million, particularly after this start. We have an idea of what he can do, and #1 starters are very rare in the baseball world. At the same time, offer Fielder a 10-year deal in the range of Jeter's after this year, with Braun to get a similar offer when he is arby-eligible.

The Brewers have already extended offers to both Braun and Fielder, if I'm not mistaken. Don't think either was for 10 years, though, which would frankly be extremely risky.

 

[Ennder]

"Take the 15mil you save on not signing Ben, and go out and get a legitimate 200 inning, 15 win guy.

 

These players don't exist. "

 

Actually there were 19 of them in 2007.

 

CC Sabathia CLE

B. Webb ARZ

A. Harang CIN

R. Halladay TOR

T. Hudson ATL

J. Lackey ANA

J. Peavy SD

D. Haren OAK

J. Santana MIN

J. Vazquez CHW

C. Zambrano CHC

J. Francis COL

A. Pettitte NYY

F. Carmona CLE

B. Penny LA

T. Lilly CHC

D. Matsuzaka BOS

J. Verlander DET

J. Beckett BOS

 

Of course, we can't just go out and take what we want, like we're at a pitching smorgasbord. But quality starting pitchers, ones with MUCH better health histories than Sheets, are available every winter. We just never pursue them. Danny Haren was there for the taking, if we pieced together an enticing enough package. Hudson, Harang, Penny, Vazquez, and others were acquired via trade.

 

It's not an exact science, knowing who'll be the next Brandon Webb. But maybe it's time the Brewers become the team who swoops in and takes advantage of a situation where a Marlins/Pirates type team is willing to sell off its top starter for a package of heralded nuggets like the great Brad Nelson, Zach Jackson, and Tim Dillard.

 

I fully expect to see Ben Sheets in another uniform in 2009, but that, along with the end of a few other contracts can free up $15+ million to pursue an ace. And maybe this next ace won't be subject to 2-month injuries from paper cuts, or vertigo, every season.

 

All I'm saying is, if Ben is willing to provide a discount, given all the time we've paid him to sit on his can and NOT pitch for us over the years, then yeah, I'd re-sign him. But that won't happen, and his DL time will be absorbed by some other team with a lot more money than we have.

 

But almost none of these guys were actually available this year which is my point. It is extremely rare for a healthy productive SP to reach free agency. You cannot just go out and grab a FA instead of signing your own guy. Seven of the 15 pitchers you listed have been wildly ineffective or injured this year already as well which shows the attrition rate on SP. Five years from now I'm willing to bet that at most 3 or 4 of those guys are still pitching at an elite level and have not had some sort of major injury.

[clancyphile]

My thoughts? Offer Sheets five years, $55 million, particularly after this start. We have an idea of what he can do, and #1 starters are very rare in the baseball world. At the same time, offer Fielder a 10-year deal in the range of Jeter's after this year, with Braun to get a similar offer when he is arby-eligible.

You want to give Prince a 10 year deal at about 19 per year? First of all, with three years left of arbitration that's a huge number.

 

Second, Prince is not the guy you want to lock into 10 years with.

 

And I don't see Sheets taking a deal anywhere near that. I think if you want 5 years for Sheets, then you're talking about a discount on the yearly salary, but still around 14 or so. Maybe 5 years, 70 million, but even that would be a hometown discount.

 

A ten-year extension puts Fielder through his age 34 season.

 

[RyDogg66]

I think Cecil was out of baseball by the time he was 34, yep it was his last year.

Mo Vaughn lasted until he was 35, but he was just an average 1b from age 31-34. He stopped being a stud his last year in Boston, at age 30.

[Invader3K]

Sheets is seeming like such a gamble, again factoring in him leaving the game early last night, I don't know how anyone can reasonably want the Brewers to offer him more than, say, 3 years and $40 million dollars. He's just such a huge risk for a relatively financially limited team like the Brewers. Yes, he's great when he's on, but how can you justify that if he is out a fifth or quarter of the season the last several years. Hopefully that doesn't happen again this year, and maybe he won't even miss a start, though.

[Roscoe Chill]

Weren't both Dan Haren and Erik Bedard traded just a few months ago? I'd call that available.

[endaround]

And the Brewers couldn't get together enough for Haren and Bedard didn't make 200 innings and is now injured.

[kramnoj]

"I don't know how anyone can reasonably want the Brewers to offer him more than, say, 3 years and $40 million dollars."

 

Because you have to take gambles in baseball if you want a big reward. When Sheets is on, he's fantastic, far and above any other pitcher we could hope to acquire in any other reasonable way. I would rather take Sheets for 80% of a season than any free agent pitcher that we would sign for a full season. The best chance this or near future Brewers teams have of advancing in the playoffs is with Sheets as a dominant pitcher. I would rather gamble the money on Sheets and hope we get some type of hometown discount rather than most other ways the Brewers could spend the money.

[Roscoe Chill]

And the Brewers couldn't get together enough for Haren

 

Says who? Maybe they didn't try. If at the end of this year, they know Sheets isn't going to be back, and there is a comparable pitcher on the trade market, maybe they would make it a priority?

[Roscoe Chill]

I would rather take Sheets for 80% of a season

 

Well, yeah...so would I. For some reason or another, that hasn't happened for three years (80%).

[Ennder]

Weren't both Dan Haren and Erik Bedard traded just a few months ago? I'd call that available.

 

Yes they were traded, that isn't exactly available for signing though. Bedard has as much of an injury history as Sheets does and is hurt now. Haren took a big time set of prospects to trade for that we may or may not have been able to match. The point is these guys are not growing on trees. You can't just say let Sheets go and sign a 15+ win 200 IP guy for the money because those guys are very rare to find as a free agent in today's game. I don't want the Brewers to sign Sheets so I'm not even arguing that we should just re-sign him, the point is you can't just go out and get these magical aces in the open market very often.

[Roscoe Chill]

No, not on the open market, you are correct. But there are options out there. The Haren package was 5 prospects (+Eveland), and they were 'good' prospects, but if I recall, they weren't 'great.'

[Invader3K]

"I don't know how anyone can reasonably want the Brewers to offer him more than, say, 3 years and $40 million dollars."

 

Because you have to take gambles in baseball if you want a big reward.

You're right. Almost every free agent signing in baseball can be considered a risk. However, I just think that, assuming this is another injury for Sheets (where he misses more than one start), the risks outweigh the potential reward.

 

This is a pitcher who hasn't pitched over 200 innings since 2004. I just don't see how you can justify throwing huge long term money at someone like that. If this was any other player, we probably wouldn't be having this discussion, but because it's Ben Sheets and he's "our guy", it seems like a lot of people are willing to look past the many drawbacks of him as a player, and look past his recent and verifiable track record. You have to sign guys based on recent track record, and what they can reasonably be expected to do in the future. A team like the Brewers can hand out huge contracts based on "stuff" and "potential." It's a recipe for really handcuffing the team's finances later on. I don't see how you can look at him and say he's due to reel off a slew of Cy Young contender seasons. He has "the stuff", but not the health track record for that. He's not getting younger, either.

 

Look, don't get me wrong, I'm all for the Brewers resigning Sheets if it is for a reasonable contract...it just doesn't seem like that is likely based on recent FA pitcher signings in MLB. Seriously, I thought in the fifth inning last night, "Wow, you really have to appreciate Ben Sheets when he's on, and what he can do on the mound." And then ironically, he was pulled following that inning. It's like a bad comedy, really.

[kramnoj]

The Red Sox took a gamble on Josh Beckett, and paid a high price for him. He was a 25 year old that had never thrown 200 innings, and who had ranged from average to very good, but never put together a full, very good season. Their gamble paid off when they won a World Series two years later. And Beckett has yet to put up a season as good as Sheet's best year.

 

If the Brewers can use their relationship and history with Sheets to sign a Zambrano contract, I desperately hope they do so. I would much rather spend that money on Sheets than spend that money on Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, or just about any free agent that would be available.

[endaround]

No, not on the open market, you are correct. But there are options out there. The Haren package was 5 prospects (+Eveland), and they were 'good' prospects, but if I recall, they weren't 'great.'

Eveland=Parra

[jazzytrav]

My thoughts? Offer Sheets five years, $55 million, particularly after this start.

So...offer him a paycut?

[Invader3K]

My thoughts? Offer Sheets five years, $55 million, particularly after this start.

So...offer him a paycut?

Yeah, I don't think that would exactly fly.