Villenueva Is opening in the Minors a possiblity? (Yost hints they may not go with 5 best starters)

[billyhallfan]

the season hasn't even started, and Ned is already starting to lose his head, unbelievable, well I guess it isn't, because we all knew he would be a moron, but what on earth is he thinking?

[twobrewers]

And while Capuano may not been as bad as his ERA and his 22 straight appearances without a win, he certainly was never an ace last year.

I am not sure why I keep taking the bait...

 

After 7 starts last year, Capuano was 5-0 with a 2.31 ERA. In 2006 he was an All-Star and lead the league in "Quality Starts". Calling him an "ace" might be a stretch - but honestly, that just depends on your definition of an "ace".

 

Villanueva has produced the entire time he has been in the majors. He also has a higher probability of improving than anyone else on the staff outside of Yo. It will be absolutely mind boggling if he's not in the rotation, especially with Gallardo sidelined to start the year.

I disagree. I think Villanueva doesn't have much room left for improvement. While I really like him - he is a two pitch pitcher. His change up is already a plus pitch. It isn't going to get better. And his fastball isn't going to get faster.

 

Parra has a much better chance of showing improvements.

[Ennder]

Luke232323 you have Suppan pitching on 3 days rest for his 2nd start vs SF and Villanueva pitching on 3 days rest for his start @NYM. I'm pretty sure the original chart was accurate.

[LUKE232323]

Luke232323 you have Suppan pitching on 3 days rest for his 2nd start vs SF and Villanueva pitching on 3 days rest for his start @NYM. I'm pretty sure the original chart was accurate.

You are correct.

[Ennder]

My biggest problem with all of this is we are paying Suppan $12M to block pitchers who are probably better than him and to stop us from even having a chance of re-signing Sheets if he stays healthy all year (I don't really want to re-sign him anyway so that is probably a plus in the long run).

[Brewguru2]

That is why I say he gets an incomplete for last year. Before his injury his stats looked a lot like they did in 2006 when he had a 4.03 ERA and 3.94 xERA. So yeah maybe ace is too strong of a word but a legit #2 starter.

You keep bringing up this "injury". What injury? He had his non-throwing shoulder cleaned up in the off-season, but as far as I can tell, he suffered no injury on June 8 @ Texas (his 13th start).

 

In fact, all the game write-up talks about Capuano is that he "lost his fifth straight start after starting out 5-0. He gave up six runs and eight hits while walking four in four innings." And that "It was like Jekyll and Hyde tonight," said Capuano, who has a 5.94 ERA in his last five starts. "In the [third] inning I felt right on top of my stuff. In the next inning, I just didn't have good command."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=270608113

 

Also interesting that you brought up his '06 season. He had a solid first half and an abysmal second half (5.17 ERA). If you think Villanueva is a #4, then Capuano has to be a #5 or lower.

 

(pared back long quote --1992)

[1992casey]

Chris was on the DL with a groin injury from June 14th to July 1st last year.

[RobDeer 45]

Lets look at it this way, be happy we can even have these debates! Usually, its what the heck are we going to do for our last two starters.

 

Don't hate on Soup Can either, he may be mediocre but he's always there and gives us a chance to win quite a bit.

 

As for Villy, I'd like to see him up right away but if he's not it's a good sign for us that we have this type of depth. We know he will be up sooner than later too, so it's not that terrible.

[Brewguru2]

In 2006 he was an All-Star and lead the league in "Quality Starts". Calling him an "ace" might be a stretch - but honestly, that just depends on your definition of an "ace".

 

 

Being a one-time fluke all-star and leading the league in "Quality Starts" (a horrendous stat if there ever was one) are not good arguments for considering anyone an ace, or even a very good pitcher.

[hauser42]

Ender. Suppan is the innings eater this team needs to keep the young arms from being taxed. Just because he is not some sexy strike out machine doesn't mean there are 2 more better starters on the team. Sheets and Yo are better but it is hard to argue anyone else is. Suppan gives his teams innings and a chance to win most times out.

 

 

CV has a great strand and hit rates last year as a starter so his stats look real pretty. Those things come back to league norm and he will not look like the lock for a starting role. His second half numbers leave a doubt in my mind that he could be an effective stater over a season, more the league would see him they would be able to hit him. He has solid bag of pitches but not two dominating ones that can carry him through times.

[Klements Bratwurst]

assuming Capuano has his velocity back

Ender,

 

I am mostly just reading on the outside on this one, but are you strongly suggesting in Capuano that there some correlation between has groin pull injury (in Detroit I believe) and his struggles the rest of the year, specifically with a loss of velocity? The pre-injury stats you posted are draw dropping compared to the post injury stats. I know he struggled some in those eight starts after that great 5-0 beginning , but to be that bad after his return from injury, could a drop in velocity be plausible as a reason he was being lit up like a Christmas tree? I don't recall reading anything about that at all or Yost/Maddux/Capuano complaining about poor velocity, but rather it was always, poor location, etc, etc.

 

Just wondering if there is something out there that maybe proves that Capuano lost a bit on the fastball (post injury), and thus those mistakes that he made before and getting away with, were now being hit hard someplace. I suppose a pulled groin could affect the push off leg or the land leg and result in Cappy babying it a bit unconsciously and thus taking a bit off the old #1 heater.

[JJHardy7]

Being a one-time fluke all-star and leading the league in "Quality Starts" (a horrendous stat if there ever was one) are not good arguments for considering anyone an ace, or even a very good pitcher.

 

I actually like this stat. There aren't too many stats that indicate exactly how good a player is (I'm not saying this is one either), but it means Cappy at least is getting deep into game a decent success rate. I'm kind of on the fence as to whether Cappy is the all-star Cappy or the bad Cappy. In my opinion he deserves another shot. I know it'd be very difficult to compare, but I wonder what Cappys W/L record would be with the run support Vargas got.

 

I know a lot of people point to his loss streak, but it wasn't just Cappy in those games. I honestly don't even think this needs to be a Cappy vs. CV debate. We're early in spring training and it's a long year. I still think this has more to do with getting CV consistent pitching in than anything else -- if it's true. It's easier to have Vargas be the long guy and pitch him in the #5 starting role as needed in April.

[Ennder]

A lot of people said he was throwing in the low 80's instead of the mid to high 80's in the second half last season. I think that Capuano's mechanics were all messed up last year because of the injury issues.

 

In the 12 games including the game he got hurt and the last game he started his stats were 58 IP, 46 ER, 24 BB, 58 K, 9 HR, 7.06 ERA, .901 OPS against. To me when a pitcher does something like that right after getting injured I tend to think the injury played a significant part in the problems. My guess is the groin was still bothering him when he threw out of the stretch.

 

Not saying they should give him a free ride but he has shown enough that if he comes to spring training, is throwing at the velocity he should be and is locating his pitches I think he deserves to be in the rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm kind of on the fence as to whether Cappy is the all-star Cappy or the bad Cappy.

Probably because he's neither - he sits comfortably in-between the two as a solid #3/4 type SP... just mho.

[DrWood]

this site has cappy throwing 88.42 mph on average, though they call it a sinker. does he throw a 2 or 4 seamer?

 

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Chris_Capuano.html

[logan82]

My biggest problem with all of this is we are paying Suppan $12M to block pitchers who are probably better than him and to stop us from even having a chance of re-signing Sheets if he stays healthy all year (I don't really want to re-sign him anyway so that is probably a plus in the long run).

The funny thing is when we had a thread about who we want in the starting rotation I might have been the only one to leave Suppan off my list of "want" in the starting rotation.

[Ennder]

Ooh that site is great DrWood. We'd have to have data from the previous year to know if anything was different though. I know back in 2006 Capuano kept saying he wishes he could get his velocity up because the highest it goes is 90-91.

 

Arsenal: At his best, Capuano relies upon locating his sweeping change up to all corners of the strike zone, complementing his bevy of fastballs that usually reside in the high-80s. Capuano's main fastballs are 4-seam and 2-seam, although he also uses a cut fastball on occasion. Alongside his change up, he also uses a breaking ball

 

http://www.sportsbubbler.com/DisplayTopic.aspx?TopicID=460

 

That site claims he throws a 2 seam and a 4 seam. I have to admit that I still just think of them as a fastball and don't seperate the two so I never notice when a pitcher throws one type or the other. I just know people were complaining about his fastball sitting in the low 80's at the end of the season last year and well coming off of any surgery is going to make your velocity a concern, even if it is the non pitching shoulder.

[DrWood]

I've never even tinkered around as a pitcher, so I can never remember which is 2 and which is 4-seam. but one is faster, and one has more movement.

[logan82]

4 is faster, 2 has more movement. A 2 seam will run in on a hitter.

 

http://www.thecompletepitcher.com/pitching_grips.htm

[twobrewers]

A lot of people said he was throwing in the low 80's instead of the mid to high 80's in the second half last season. I think that Capuano's mechanics were all messed up last year because of the injury issues.

I've read a few people reference this as well. One of the ESPN guys wrote something about his velocity being down - so it was hard to believe that an injury wasn't playing some role.

[1992casey]

That site claims he throws a 2 seam and a 4 seam.

If it means anything, Chris demonstrated both on his Young and the Restless appearance. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[DrWood]

oh no. the Y&R curse!

[Oldcity]

My biggest problem with all of this is we are paying Suppan $12M to block pitchers who are probably better than him and to stop us from even having a chance of re-signing Sheets if he stays healthy all year (I don't really want to re-sign him anyway so that is probably a plus in the long run).

Suppan won't prevent the team from trying to sign Sheets if they want to. I belive his NTC is lifted after this year, correct? So you just trade him before '09. I think that might end up happening even if they don't re-sign Sheets.

[logan82]

Stevo wrote:

Suppan won't prevent the team from trying to sign Sheets if they want to. I belive his NTC is lifted after this year, correct? So you just trade him before '09. I think that might end up happening even if they don't re-sign Sheets.

He can pick 8 teams annualy that we can't trade him to. Why would we want to trade him though if he is pitching well? We are going to be losing some pitchers by then or shortly after.

[trwi7]

Ooh that site is great DrWood.

Thank me because I'm the one who found it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

As far as Capuano's velocity I don't ever remember him hitting more than 90. He usually sat around 88-90 in 2006 but towards the end of last year (I'm watching his September 23rd start now) he's between 83-86.