Villenueva Is opening in the Minors a possiblity? (Yost hints they may not go with 5 best starters)

[TooLiveBrew]

The funny thing to me is that I'm wondering if having this much SP was done for insurance against a possible Sheets injury, as opposed to stockpiling a 'surplus.' Sure, one is expendable, but we're being reminded that there's room for Villy in Nashville. Our healthy pitching staff is an ace, a strong #2, and 5 #3-5 starters. I think that can get lost in the shuffle. Heck, 6 #3-5 types if you count Parra.

 

I love the policy on acquiring as much pitching as possible. The Brewers have had some really bad luck (& poor mgmt.) with young pitchers in recent years - the 2008 draft is critical to re-stocking the system. If Luismar can help in the bullpen, that'd be a nice first step.

[logan82]

I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I think we need a 5th starter by April 6th. Unless we plan on throwing a guy on short rest, we have 5 straight games between April 2nd and 6th.

[ozzybourne]

TLB--i believe the design was for a surplus, esp with sheets history. i am getting the feeling more and more that DM will ride into the season with all 8 pitchers regardless of injuries, and trade once all are healthy or sometime in mid/end of may depending on how the rest of the team shakes out.

[logan82]

Villanueva might have to pitch in AAA. To much MLB talent to fit on our MLB roster. Having to keep guys who can play in MLB on our AAA roster an extra year or two so their FA clocks don't start. These are the kinds of problems we have been dreaming about for years.

[LUKE232323]

Villanueva might have to pitch in AAA. To much MLB talent to fit on our MLB roster. Having to keep guys who can play in MLB on our AAA roster an extra year or two so their FA clocks don't start. These are the kinds of problems we have been dreaming about for years.

You do not put superior talent in AAA just because you have a lot of pitchers in a win-now mode year. We have 8 possible starters yes, but that doesn't mean they are all of equal talent. Vargas is steaming filth. Bush and Cappy are both talented guys, but both have question marks. What does Villanueva have to do to prove he belongs in the damn rotation, especially when our #2 just went down with injury?

No one can sell Villy to AAA.

[ozzybourne]

if, and it's a big if that villy starts in aaa, it is only because some other guys are getting paid. he will shine when given a chance. and i expect that to be soon.

[Ennder]

Villanueva might have to pitch in AAA. To much MLB talent to fit on our MLB roster. Having to keep guys who can play in MLB on our AAA roster an extra year or two so their FA clocks don't start. These are the kinds of problems we have been dreaming about for years.

You do not put superior talent in AAA just because you have a lot of pitchers in a win-now mode year. We have 8 possible starters yes, but that doesn't mean they are all of equal talent. Vargas is steaming filth. Bush and Cappy are both talented guys, but both have question marks. What does Villanueva have to do to prove he belongs in the damn rotation, especially when our #2 just went down with injury?

No one can sell Villy to AAA.

 

He has to BB less than 4 per 9 IP and lower his FB% from 47%. These are stats that are full of fail and pretty much assure me he wont' have a sub 4 ERA in a full year of starting. Yeah he can improve on those numbers but don't be fooled by last years ERA, he was not a great pitcher last year, he just had a decent ERA (and no those two things are not exclusive at all).

 

When the Brewers give him his shot and he posts a 4.50 ERA I just don't want people to be surprised, because so far he has pitched like a 4.50 ERA pitcher from a pure stats standpoint. Maybe he is that unique guy who gives better ERA's than you'd expect but it isn't all that likely.

[TooLiveBrew]

But Sheets can start 'early' on normal rest and they can flip over the rotation due to the off-day on April 1, right?

[LUKE232323]

Ender, was he better than Cappy/Bush/Vargas last year? Yes.

 

Maybe he wasn't as good as his ERA, but without seeing any stats I would have called him the top pitcher out of those four, and he's still improving, most likely, given his age/experience.

[Ennder]

He was better than Vargas, he was about the same as Bush/Capuano. I know you'll say I'm 'crazy' for that opinion but I refuse to change my opinion based on a tiny sample of ERA. Capuano you can put down for an incomplete because he was an ace before his injury and a dud afterwards. Bush was about the same as Villanueva, he just had a worse ERA.

[ozzybourne]

ender--what about his last 5 starts? 4 of them being QS? yes the k/bb ratio could have been better(21-15) in 30 innings, but at the end of the year, in a pennant race he performed like a veteran. by the way, his era as a starter was 2.06, and dont give me that stuff about era not being important. give him a break--we should have more young pitchers with his upside.

[twobrewers]

You do not put superior talent in AAA just because you have a lot of pitchers in a win-now mode year.

Here is the argument plain and simple...

 

Do you believe that there is a significant different between Capuano/Bush and Villanueva?

 

If someone has to go down, all things equal - you send the player with options & the least experience. I, personally, think that Capuano/Bush/Villanueva are all about the same talent level.

 

I am pretty confident that the Brewers agree with me - hence they would consider this option. The bottom line is we have one oft injured #1 (Ben), a potential future #1 (YoGa), and then 4 pitchers of very equal talent in Suppan/Capuano/Bush/Villanueva.

 

None of us have any idea which one of those four will perform the best this year. Play them in camp. See who looks good. Break a tie by sending the youngest with remaining options to the minor leagues if need by. I'm sorry - but how is that not the smart thing to do?

[twobrewers]

Ender, was he better than Cappy/Bush/Vargas last year? Yes.

I believe the point is that the stats don't point to Villanueva being better than Cappy/Bush/Vargas this year.

 

Here is what I don't get...

 

How can you be upset at the idea of Villanueva possibly starting the year in AAA - and not upset at the notion of Parra starting the year in AAA?

 

Parra is probably the most talented of the lot - and has the most upside.

[logan82]

ender--what about his last 5 starts? 4 of them being QS?

A month doesn't make a season. So Mike Maddux says. Listen to the interview.

 

http://www.wtlx.com/content/podcasts

[sbrylski]

what about his last 5 starts? 4 of them being QS? yes the k/bb ratio could have been better(21-15) in 30 innings, but at the end of the year, in a pennant race he performed like a veteran.

 

You contradicted yourself. He can't be lacking in K's and BB's (two of the three main things the pitcher is alone in influencing) and have pitched wonderfully at the same time.

[endaround]

Villanueva pre All Star:

 

60.1 inn 55K, 24 BB, 5 HR

 

Post All Star:

 

54.0 inn, 44 K, 29 BB, 11 HR

 

While he wasn't as good as his ERA suggested in the first half, the evidence points to him wearing down. And 60 innings in like 85 games is a pretty large amount in relief. Turnbow had 68 for the season and he was worked a lot.

[mark brouhard is number on]

Villanueva has done nothing but perform since he's been with us. I think its ridiculous to think he could start the year at AAA. He's easily one of our 5 best starters and definitely one of the better relievers if they choose to put him in that role. What a joke this is

[Tbadder]

I'd rather be giving up runs than walks any day. Okay by me if the Crew sends him down.

[JJHardy7]

Villanueva has done nothing but perform since he's been with us. I think its ridiculous to think he could start the year at AAA. He's easily one of our 5 best starters and definitely one of the better relievers if they choose to put him in that role. What a joke this is

 

I just don't look at it this way. I think Villanueva showed in Nashville that if he's given the ball every 5 days he can stretch out quite easily from a bullpen role to a starting role. I think part of the logic might be that they can give CV regular work in AAA whereas in the majors the month of April really doesn't need a 5th starter and they'd rather use their #5 as a long guy/starter for the month.

 

I think the whole point might be to keep CV in the same role the whole year and not mess with it. What's wrong with that? The month of April doesn't make the season and I think some might be getting a little too worked up over this. Now if CV is in the minors the entire year -- yea that's a problem, but there is no indication that is the plan.

[Brewguru2]

Capuano you can put down for an incomplete because he was an ace before his injury and a dud afterwards.

Capuano was NEVER an ace.

 

It is illogical that Villanueva would start the season at Nashville. The kid got screwed last year by pitching out of the bullpen (he outpitched Vargas in Spring Training in what was called a "fair competition" for the #5 spot, but that was just a lie).

 

He has done nothing with the Brewers to suggest he can't be a dependable pitcher. Just the comment that "we may not go with our 5 best pitchers to start the year...." WHAT??? Why wouldn't you go with your 5 best? You lose a game in April and lose the division by one game and it's the same as losing on Sept. 28.

 

I hope this is just posturing by Yost. Villy should start the year at #3, with Capuano and Bush at 4 and 5, then after Capuano drops his first 2-3 decisions, you can demote him to the minors to work on things.

[bork]

We will need a 5th starter on the 6th, 12th, 19th and 24th.

 

Just using Sheets, Suppan, Bush, and Capuano for kicks.

3/31 - Sheets

4/1 - off

4/2 - Suppan

4/3 - Bush

4/4 - Capuano

4/5 - Sheets

4/6 -

4/7 - off

4/8 - Suppan

4/9 - Bush

4/10 - Sheets

4/11 - Capuano

4/12 -

4/13 - Suppan

4/14 - Off

4/15 - Sheets

4/16 - Bush

4/17 - Capuano

4/18 - Suppan

4/19 -

4/20 - Sheets

4/21 - Bush

4/22 - Capuano

4/23 - Suppan

4/24 -

4/25 - Sheets

4/25 - Bush

4/26 - Capuano

4/27 - Suppan

4/28 - off

4/29 - Sheets

4/30 - Bush

[1992casey]

When a manager talks about 'spring training competitions', I almost always hope he's lying.

[LUKE232323]

Capuano was NEVER an ace.

 

It is illogical that Villanueva would start the season at Nashville.

Couldn't agree more with all of this. And while Capuano may not been as bad as his ERA and his 22 straight appearances without a win, he certainly was never an ace last year. When Cappy is on and it his best, he's a solid #2 guy, if he can get back to his 2006/2005 production, I would be ecstatic to have him in the rotation given he'd be our #4 or #5. But he was never an ace, no matter how you try and bend the stats.

 

Villanueva has produced the entire time he has been in the majors. He also has a higher probability of improving than anyone else on the staff outside of Yo. It will be absolutely mind boggling if he's not in the rotation, especially with Gallardo sidelined to start the year.

 

(pared back long quote --1992)

[Ennder]

Before the start that Capuano got hurt in here was his stat line.

 

12 GS, 5 W, 66.1 IP, 63 H, 28 ER, 24 BB, 55 K, 6 HR, 3.80 ERA, .696 OPS against

 

Those are very good numbers. After the injury he was.

 

83.2 IP, 107 H, 57 ER, 30 BB, 77 K, 14 HR, 6.13 ERA, .883 OPS against

 

That is why I say he gets an incomplete for last year. Before his injury his stats looked a lot like they did in 2006 when he had a 4.03 ERA and 3.94 xERA. So yeah maybe ace is too strong of a word but a legit #2 starter.

 

As for Villanueva, I just disagree. I think in a full season he'd have over a 4 ERA unless he really improves. I just don't think he can sustain the miniscule BABIP that has driven his ERA so far. Maybe he is that rare freak that can sustain a .258 BABIP but most likely that will regress to .280 or so and eventually being a flyball pitcher in miller park is going to get him in trouble. But like I said, I don't have a problem with him being in the rotation and he his young enough to fix his problems, I just think people think he has pitched better than he really has so far because of his flukey ERA. I just don't think he is a sure thing top 5 starter on this team assuming Suppan has to stay in the rotation.

 

Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Capuano are my top 4 assuming Capuano has his velocity back. After that Parra is probably the best option but I doubt he starts in the majors so Villanueva is probably the #5 but it isn't a big gap between him and Bush.

[LUKE232323]

We will need a 5th starter on the 6th, 12th, 19th and 24th.

Edit: my bad, you are correct.

 

 

(pared back

long quote --1992)