top offenses in MLB

[DrWood]

I had a rancorous experience on the ESPN MLB board. someone posted a query on what are the top 10 offenses in MLB. I suggested that the brewers should be considered in the top 5 since: last year they were 6th in OPS, 4th in SLG, 1st in HR, most of the important players were young and thus likely to improve, and were in the NL (which depresses all those stats, relative to AL). I had one guy who refused to consider them that high because their batting average was below .270. Of course, he was a tigers fan (and the tigers have a lot of guys with good BA, but don't draw many walks). oh well. I fought the good fight for our boys.

[dlk9s]

Keep in mind that most people who post messages on the "mainstream" sports sites such as ESPN, CBSSportsline, etc., are slack-jawed morons.

[logan82]

Keep in mind that most people who post messages on the "mainstream" sports sites such as ESPN, CBSSportsline, etc., are slack-jawed morons.

I think you are wrong. I would have said slack-jawed idiots.

[Patrick425]

dlk9s wrote:

---

Keep in mind that most people who post messages on the "mainstream" sports sites such as ESPN, CBSSportsline, etc., are slack-jawed morons.

I think you are wrong. I would have said slack-jawed idiots.

Yeah, because the word morons would be politically incorrect, since it would be offensive to the people living in the city of Moron in Spain. In fact, I'm offended by the slack-jawed reference, since I do not have a very pronounced jaw bone.

[JohnBriggs12]

Offense is measured by runs scored. Brewers were 5th in the NL in runs scored in 2007. Their offseason moves didn't address the offensive shortcomings (high strikeouts, low BA, low OBP), so the improvement has to come from better seasons out of guys like Weeks and Hall. I'd have a hard time arguing the Brewer offense as currently constructed is a top 5 one. Top 10, yes.

[Ennder]

Offense is measure by runs scored. Brewers were 5th in the NL in runs scored in 2007.

 

Their offseason moves didn't address the offensive shortcomings (high strikeouts, low BA, low OBP), so the improvement has to come from better seasons out of guys like Weeks and Hall.

 

I'd have a hard time arguing the Brewer offense as currently constructed is a top 5 one. Top 10, yes.

 

I disagree.

 

Jenkins - 464 PA, .255/.319/.471/.790

Mench - 308 PA, .267/.305/.441/.746

 

Replaced with

 

Cameron - last 3 years posted between .242-.273 AVG, .328-.342 OBP, .431-.477 SLG and .759-.819 OPS. Those numbers are all in massive pitcher parks. There is no reason to not believe that Cameron is an OBP/OPS upgrade over those two.

 

Graffanino - 260 PA, .238/.315/.390/.705. These stats will almost certainly be replaced by better AVG/OBP.

 

Estrada - 464 PA, .278/.296/.403/..699

 

replaced by

 

Kendall - .242-.271 AVG, .301-.367 OBP, .309-.342 SLG, .610-..709 OPS. This could obviously go either way overall but it most certainly will be an OBP increase.

 

Hall - .315 OBP last year,significantly lower than 2005/2006 so should expect improvement.

Weeks obviously theoretically will be healthier now that the wrist seems fully healthy.

 

I would be shocked if the teams OBP didn't go up barring some major injuries.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sorry ender, I just don't see Cameron as an offensive upgrade over Jenkins/Mench.

 

First Petco is much tougher on lefthanded hitters than it is on righthanded hitters so I think you are overestimating the park factor. It's 367 to straight away LF as opposed to 378 to straight away RF, and 402 to left-center as opposed to 411 to right center.

 

Cameron is also now 35 years old and is more likely to regress than progress.

 

I think he's very likely to match very closely to what Jenkins did last year: .255/.319/.471 with very similar strikeouts.

 

Kendall should be an upgrade by 30 points in OBP over Estrada, but at the expense of 50-100 point of slugging.

 

I said that the improvement has to come from Weeks and Hall, but that could be at the expense of some minor regression elsewhere.

 

Can they improve? Sure, but the thread is whether they are a top 5 offensive team in all of baseball. They might end up being that but it's far from a slam dunk.

[Ennder]

You are way underselling Cameron. He had an OBP of .352 in 2006. In 2007 he had OBP of .341 on the road and Petco hurts more than just left handed hitters overall. He had a very up and down year last year but he isn't showing signs of a complete breakdown yet where you should expect a .319 OBP out of him this year. A hamsring injury slowed him in April and a knee injury in September and yeah injuries are going to be a concern for a 35 year old CF. I still think your opinion is overly pessimistic.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sorry ender, I just don't see Cameron as an offensive upgrade over Jenkins/Mench.

 

Your opinion supercedes fact? Cameron has drawn right around 70 or more BBs for 7 of the past 8 seasons. Jenks & Mench have never done it. Your prediction for a .320-ish OBP is way off base. You 'predict' a career-norm BA for Cameron, why not OBP?

[LUKE232323]

Easy, because John Briggs is a big time pessimist.

 

Realistically, I expect upward trends from Weeks and Hall, slight downward trends from Fielder, Hardy, Braun. Hart will be about the same. I expect Cameron to have similar power numbers to Jenkins but with a higher OBP. Kendall will have a lower BA and power numbers but higher OBP than Estrada.

 

So realistically, it appears our team OBP will rise at least slightly, with little to no drop in power numbers. I don't see how people could say we're not a top five offense in the NL.

[Ennder]

I pretty much agree with that LUKE232323 except I don't expect a downward trend from Hardy. His horrible June/July pretty much offset his hot April/May and he produced about what I expect out of him. Maybe a tad more OBP and a tad less SLG.

[And That]

Hardy will draw more walks over the long term. He* got all out of whack last season at the plate... it won't happen as often now, especially since he'll be batting very low in the order. He'll be closer to his 2005 walk ratios in 2008, IMO. I have trust that he's a smart ballplayer.

[TooLiveBrew]

I got all out of whack last season at the plate... it won't happen as often now

 

So it is revealed... AT is actually J.J. Hardy! First Russell Branyan posting here, now J.J.!

[Patrick425]

I tend to agree with JohnBriggs and especially this statement, which everyone seems to be dismissing:

 

Cameron is also now 35 years old and is more likely to regress than progress.

[And That]

I tend to agree with JohnBriggs and especially this statement, which everyone seems to be dismissing:

 

Cameron is also now 35 years old and is more likely to regress than progress.

Coming out of Petco, even some regression will still result in better output.

 

[Ennder]

Yep, there is no way you should expect Cameron to drop to Jenkins from last year in numbers while moving out of Petco. 35 year olds generally regress but that is falling off of a cliff.

[endaround]

There is absolutely no reason to think Fielder will regress. Keep in mind that even with his great year, his BABIP was only .286. so while he might not quite hit 50 again, no reason to expect that won't be picked up elsewhere with a higher BA and OBP.

[erbacaine04]

Yeah I saw that on the Main board as well and since I am blocked from posting on espn's message board when I am at work I could not interject that The brewers were top 5 or 6 in the League in most areas and that was with out Braun up the first 7 weeks, With Weeks being hurt, Estrada being inept, Menchkins platoon and Hall struggling.

 

Cammeron is a big upgrade.... its not just park size that hurts hitters in SD..its the Dense air that kills fly balls

 

 

I do think we will have a better Offense and score over 800 runs....espeically if people stay healthy.

[Patrick425]

Yep, there is no way you should expect Cameron to drop to Jenkins from last year in numbers

How exactly would he regress to Jenkins numbers last year? Jenkins had a better Avg and SLG% than Cameron and was only 9 points lower in OBP. Yes, Cameron had more Runs and RBI, but he also had 150 more ABs. While there may be a defensive improvement, Petco or no Petco, I don't see Cameron beating the Menchkins numbers offensively.

[TooLiveBrew]

Petco or no Petco, I don't see Cameron beating the Menchkins numbers offensively.

 

Prepare to be pleasantly surprised, then. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

I just think you are looking too much at last year for Cameron. From May 1st until the end of the year he had a .253 AVG, .341 OBP, .473 SLG, .814 OPS. This is not a guy crashing and burning with age, it is one who struggled in April with a hamstring injury and posted his career rate numbers the rest of the year. I expect a .340 OBP and .800 OPS out of him in miller park this year (just slightly below his career away splits since his home numbers have always dragged him down), if he falls under that it is age related regression but I'd be shocked if he falls to Jenkins last year numbers.

 

There just isn't a solid reason to believe that will happen.

 

PECOTA likes him for .269/.356/.493/.849 and that system is usually harsh on older players. I cannot overstate just how much Cameron's home ballpark has hurt him his entire career. If this guy had been in neutral or hitters parks his entire career he'd be going for more than guys like Hunter.

[And That]

I do think we will have a better Offense and score over 800 runs....espeically if people stay healthy.

I will upgrade that and say I think the Brewers have a legit shot at scoring 900+ runs this year. Hence, the pitching will be key. This offense will become unstoppable at times if everyone stays healthy.

 

[DrWood]

They did score over 800 runs last season.

[erbacaine04]

Crap sorry that was suppose to be 870+ runs.... yes 900 COULD happen but I think uping it 70 Runs with us dropping about 40-50 runs off our runs Against will make us a VERY danagerous team