Are pitching wins an accurate measure of a pitcher's value?

[homer]

We've gone round and round on this is several threads and I want to see if we can collect both sides of the argument in one place.

 

Me personally, I think wins over a career can show a measure of success. I think if you look at most 300 game winners, they will most likely all have the anciliary stats proving they were good. Where I disagree with using wins a yardstick for worth is season to season. I can't say Vargas was better than Capuano in 2007 just because Vargas had more wins. It's not because he "knows how to win" its because he had more run support. Also, to compare pitcher A on team A with pitcher B on team B solely on wins discounts the effect a poor defense may have had on pitcher B

[homer]

We've gone round and round on this is several threads and I want to see if we can collect both sides of the argument in one place.

 

Me personally, I think wins over a career can show a measure of success. I think if you look at most 300 game winners, they will most likely all have the anciliary stats proving they were good. Where I disagree with using wins a yardstick for worth is season to season. I can't say Vargas was better than Capuano in 2007 just because Vargas had more wins. It's not because he "knows how to win" its because he had more run support. Also, to compare pitcher A on team A with pitcher B on team B solely on wins discounts the effect a poor defense may have had on pitcher B

[homer]

We've gone round and round on this is several threads and I want to see if we can collect both sides of the argument in one place.

 

Me personally, I think wins over a career can show a measure of success. I think if you look at most 300 game winners, they will most likely all have the anciliary stats proving they were good. Where I disagree with using wins a yardstick for worth is season to season. I can't say Vargas was better than Capuano in 2007 just because Vargas had more wins. It's not because he "knows how to win" its because he had more run support. Also, to compare pitcher A on team A with pitcher B on team B solely on wins discounts the effect a poor defense may have had on pitcher B

[Ennder]

Wins are a team stat. The pitcher has an influence on them by how well he pitches and how deep he goes into the games but his run support controls how much he wins more than anything the pitcher does himself.

 

Nolan Ryan only had a career winning percentage of .526. That doesnt' make him any less of a HOF pitcher, just means he had a lot of bad run support. A lot of HOF pitchers sit in the .500-.550 range for winning percentage because they weren't on dominant teams. Rollie Fingers had a .491 winning % and is in the hall.

 

Since this is fueled by the Ben Sheets comment in the other thread I'd add that since Sheets broke out in 2004 he is 40-35 for a .533 and since the Brewers stopped being one of the worst teams in baseball he is 28-21 for a .571. It isn't a fluke that as his team got better so did his record.

 

 

(added link to 'other thread' above --1992)

[Ennder]

Wins are a team stat. The pitcher has an influence on them by how well he pitches and how deep he goes into the games but his run support controls how much he wins more than anything the pitcher does himself.

 

Nolan Ryan only had a career winning percentage of .526. That doesnt' make him any less of a HOF pitcher, just means he had a lot of bad run support. A lot of HOF pitchers sit in the .500-.550 range for winning percentage because they weren't on dominant teams. Rollie Fingers had a .491 winning % and is in the hall.

 

Since this is fueled by the Ben Sheets comment in the other thread I'd add that since Sheets broke out in 2004 he is 40-35 for a .533 and since the Brewers stopped being one of the worst teams in baseball he is 28-21 for a .571. It isn't a fluke that as his team got better so did his record.

 

 

(added link to 'other thread' above --1992)

[Ennder]

Wins are a team stat. The pitcher has an influence on them by how well he pitches and how deep he goes into the games but his run support controls how much he wins more than anything the pitcher does himself.

 

Nolan Ryan only had a career winning percentage of .526. That doesnt' make him any less of a HOF pitcher, just means he had a lot of bad run support. A lot of HOF pitchers sit in the .500-.550 range for winning percentage because they weren't on dominant teams. Rollie Fingers had a .491 winning % and is in the hall.

 

Since this is fueled by the Ben Sheets comment in the other thread I'd add that since Sheets broke out in 2004 he is 40-35 for a .533 and since the Brewers stopped being one of the worst teams in baseball he is 28-21 for a .571. It isn't a fluke that as his team got better so did his record.

 

 

(added link to 'other thread' above --1992)

[sbrylski]

Also, to compare pitcher A on team A with pitcher B on team B solely on wins discounts the effect a poor defense may have had on pitcher B

 

ERA is the same way. But at least ERA takes out the offense component of pitching wins, which should have just about zero value in determining a pitchers worth. I don't buy that a pitcher pitches differently depending on the score. The goal in any situation is to get the batter out.

[sbrylski]

Also, to compare pitcher A on team A with pitcher B on team B solely on wins discounts the effect a poor defense may have had on pitcher B

 

ERA is the same way. But at least ERA takes out the offense component of pitching wins, which should have just about zero value in determining a pitchers worth. I don't buy that a pitcher pitches differently depending on the score. The goal in any situation is to get the batter out.

[sbrylski]

Also, to compare pitcher A on team A with pitcher B on team B solely on wins discounts the effect a poor defense may have had on pitcher B

 

ERA is the same way. But at least ERA takes out the offense component of pitching wins, which should have just about zero value in determining a pitchers worth. I don't buy that a pitcher pitches differently depending on the score. The goal in any situation is to get the batter out.

[sbrylski]

Nolan Ryan only had a career winning percentage of .526. That doesnt' make him any less of a HOF pitcher, just means he had a lot of bad run support.

 

To be picky, I think Ryan is a bad example. He really wasn't that great overall. My quick calculation has him ~220 runs above average over his career, and about 22 wins over .500. For his career, he was actually 32 wins over .500.

[sbrylski]

Nolan Ryan only had a career winning percentage of .526. That doesnt' make him any less of a HOF pitcher, just means he had a lot of bad run support.

 

To be picky, I think Ryan is a bad example. He really wasn't that great overall. My quick calculation has him ~220 runs above average over his career, and about 22 wins over .500. For his career, he was actually 32 wins over .500.

[sbrylski]

Nolan Ryan only had a career winning percentage of .526. That doesnt' make him any less of a HOF pitcher, just means he had a lot of bad run support.

 

To be picky, I think Ryan is a bad example. He really wasn't that great overall. My quick calculation has him ~220 runs above average over his career, and about 22 wins over .500. For his career, he was actually 32 wins over .500.

[PKBadger]

I think if you look at most 300 game winners, they will most likely all have the anciliary stats proving they were good.

 

I agree with that sentiment, but only because in order to hold down a rotation spot on a major league franchise for the 15-20 years necessary to reach 300 wins, you have to be pretty darn good. So for a career, I think it can be an effective benchmark. Season to season? No.

 

[PKBadger]

I think if you look at most 300 game winners, they will most likely all have the anciliary stats proving they were good.

 

I agree with that sentiment, but only because in order to hold down a rotation spot on a major league franchise for the 15-20 years necessary to reach 300 wins, you have to be pretty darn good. So for a career, I think it can be an effective benchmark. Season to season? No.

 

[PKBadger]

I think if you look at most 300 game winners, they will most likely all have the anciliary stats proving they were good.

 

I agree with that sentiment, but only because in order to hold down a rotation spot on a major league franchise for the 15-20 years necessary to reach 300 wins, you have to be pretty darn good. So for a career, I think it can be an effective benchmark. Season to season? No.

 

[Patrick425]

Wins are a team stat. The pitcher has an influence on them by how well he pitches and how deep he goes into the games but his run support controls how much he wins more than anything the pitcher does himself.

 

I agree with this completley. If I had the choice of two pitchers to add to the Brewers and pitcher A had a 3.00 ERA with 10 wins and pitcher B had a 4.00 ERA with 15 wins, all else being equal, I'd opt for pitcher A.

[Patrick425]

Wins are a team stat. The pitcher has an influence on them by how well he pitches and how deep he goes into the games but his run support controls how much he wins more than anything the pitcher does himself.

 

I agree with this completley. If I had the choice of two pitchers to add to the Brewers and pitcher A had a 3.00 ERA with 10 wins and pitcher B had a 4.00 ERA with 15 wins, all else being equal, I'd opt for pitcher A.

[Patrick425]

Wins are a team stat. The pitcher has an influence on them by how well he pitches and how deep he goes into the games but his run support controls how much he wins more than anything the pitcher does himself.

 

I agree with this completley. If I had the choice of two pitchers to add to the Brewers and pitcher A had a 3.00 ERA with 10 wins and pitcher B had a 4.00 ERA with 15 wins, all else being equal, I'd opt for pitcher A.

[jwill535]

This is a great example as to why you cannot only use stats to prove a point. There are so many variables that go into them that unless you really narrowing it down you are comparing apples and oranges. A catchers throwing percentage is another good example of this. Any catcher is going to have a great throwing percentage with Cappy on the mound. When Sheets is on the mound, Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't throw out alot of runner.

[jwill535]

This is a great example as to why you cannot only use stats to prove a point. There are so many variables that go into them that unless you really narrowing it down you are comparing apples and oranges. A catchers throwing percentage is another good example of this. Any catcher is going to have a great throwing percentage with Cappy on the mound. When Sheets is on the mound, Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't throw out alot of runner.

[jwill535]

This is a great example as to why you cannot only use stats to prove a point. There are so many variables that go into them that unless you really narrowing it down you are comparing apples and oranges. A catchers throwing percentage is another good example of this. Any catcher is going to have a great throwing percentage with Cappy on the mound. When Sheets is on the mound, Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't throw out alot of runner.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think wins certainly help make a pitcher look even better, but I think ERA, WHIP and innings may be a better way to look at how good a pitcher is.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think wins certainly help make a pitcher look even better, but I think ERA, WHIP and innings may be a better way to look at how good a pitcher is.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think wins certainly help make a pitcher look even better, but I think ERA, WHIP and innings may be a better way to look at how good a pitcher is.

[ozzybourne]

This is a great example as to why you cannot only use stats to prove a point. There are so many variables that go into them that unless you really narrowing it down you are comparing apples and oranges. A catchers throwing percentage is another good example of this. Any catcher is going to have a great throwing percentage with Cappy on the mound. When Sheets is on the mound, Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't throw out alot of runner.

what else besides stats would you use to prove a point in baseball terms? length of service/seniority? team leadership? stats in large measure determines a baseball players salary, especially after free agent eligible. read the box score--hello, it's stats. offensive stats, defensive stats...........

 

all the stats together get analyzed and then some. look at some of the stats available after the "money ball' era has started. especially with pitchers since they dont steal bases, drive in runs, etc. then there are splits-again stats. wins are an important stat, but not the only one.