The Return of 3TO (Ridiculously Raking in Nashville) [merged with Hall platoon thread]

[endaround]

The last time Branyan was with the Brewers he hit .256/.378/.490 If you do think that's valuable you have a really weird metric. He's unlikely to match that again, but he still has his power. The point is the Brewers have poor bench options and Counsell shouldn't be at 3B ahead of either Hall or Dillon no matter which hand the pitcher throws with. Thats on Yost.

 

And Irribarren is currently "hitting" .274/.344/.329 . He's not ready. He struggled almost all of last year in AA until he got red hot in August.

[TooLiveBrew]

Jim Powell talked about Branyan for awhile during the game last night and concluded that the most you can expect out of Branyan is what Bill Hall already gives us.

 

I think 1868 career MLB plate appearances is enough to convince me that I won't see anything different this time.

 

He's a guy that fits perfectly into a corner IF platoon. I swear people cherry-pick on stats with Branyan seemingly more than any other player. He is what he is -- a righty-mashing platoon guy. There's nothing wrong with that, and there happens to be a perfect fit for him on the MLB team. Yes he has his warts, so you don't let him face LHP. I think a line near .250/.350/.475/.825 is what you should reasonably expect from Branyan against righties... which is far better than letting Hall keep struggling against them, or trotting out Counsell's woeful stick.

 

If you want to talk about his MLB career, why not point out his OPS north of .800?

[whizkid]

While the thread was moved while I was trying to post this and others have since covered it while I was trying to find where it went, I'll post it anyway.

 

He's struck out 48 times in 150 plate appearances in Nashville this year. That suggests to me that he's still the same Russell Branyan that didn't do much last time he was here.

 

So what, despite the 48 Ks he has a 1.151 OPS. Bill Ks a lot also with a low OPS against RHs and while Counsell puts the ball in play more, it doesn't result in much. Branyan had an OPS+ of 115 and 125 the two years he was here. I'll take that over the other two choices against RHs.

 

Don't know why people are mentioning Hernan. A .672 OPS at Nashville isn't eye catching.

[rluzinski]

If you do think that's valuable you have a really weird metric.

 

I prefer the linear weights approach:

 

Offensive value = (2 x Pitches + 3 x Bunt Singles + groundouts - 1.5 x walks - 10 x strikeouts) / PA

 

I think some fans confuse an entertaining AB with offensive value. I wish the most entertaining ABs were also the most valuable but that's not how baseball is set up. Blame the longball and the fact that a bater sometimes doesn't even have to swing to get on base.

[Thurston Fluff]

that a bater sometimes doesn't even have to swing to get on base.

 

If only some of our regulars would know that we wouldn't need to debate Branyan or Gwynn.

[owbc]

He's a guy that fits perfectly into a corner IF platoon. I swear people cherry-pick on stats with Branyan seemingly more than any other player. He is what he is -- a righty-mashing platoon guy. There's nothing wrong with that, and there happens to be a perfect fit for him on the MLB team. Yes he has his warts, so you don't let him face LHP. I think a line near .250/.350/.475/.825 is what you should reasonably expect from Branyan against righties... which is far better than letting Hall keep struggling against them, or trotting out Counsell's woeful stick.

 

If you want to talk about his MLB career, why not point out his OPS north of .800?

I do agree that he should be a platoon guy and he should be on the MLB roster right now. But he strikes out 1/3 of the time--in the minors--when he's on a hot streak. So, I'm just trying to say that although he would be an improvement over what we have, I don't think he could win us more than 1 extra game. For every time that he comes up and belts a homer in the late innings, there's going to be plenty of other times where he strikes out with runners on, while Counsell (usually) gets it done with the bases loaded.

 

Maybe I, like Ned Yost, am reluctant to give up the idea of small ball.

 

[twobrewers]

Counsell (usually) gets it done with the bases loaded.

To be fair, Counsell has a .580 OPS with runners in scoring position this year. (.826 with no one on base)

 

Career wise, your assessment seems fairly accurate.

[jjfanec]

Jim Powell talked about Branyan for awhile during the game last night and concluded that the most you can expect out of Branyan is what Bill Hall already gives us.

 

I think 1868 career MLB plate appearances is enough to convince me that I won't see anything different this time.

 

He's struck out 48 times in 150 plate appearances in Nashville this year. That suggests to me that he's still the same Russell Branyan that didn't do much last time he was here. I think he's a textbook example of a 4-A player.

Branyan may just be a 4A player but against righties he is a little above that and Bill Hall against righties isn't that great either. I think we can expect Branyan to give us more against righties that what Hall is giving us. It would actually be hard to give us less.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

For every time that he comes up and belts a homer in the late innings, there's going to be plenty of other times where he strikes out with runners on, while Counsell (usually) gets it done with the bases loaded.

 

Which is it, though -- runners on or bases loaded?

 

 

1686 PA for Counsell with runners on: .268/.361/.343.704

 

988 PA for Branyan with runners on: .237/.351/.475/.826

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

98 PA for Counsell with bases loaded: .407/.423/.580/1.003

 

64 PA for Branyan with bases loaded: .196/.297/.413/.710

 

 

I won't even bother posting their career lines -- clearly the 'men on' example is more indicative of their talent (in fact, both guys have lines that match up quite well with their overall lines). And that makes sense, since it's by far a larger sample of ABs. Counsell's bases loaded 'magic' has had a lot more to do with luck imo than anything else... 98 PA? If someone brought that up in another discussion, it'd get the small sample stamp instantly. Yet with Counsell people say again & again how great he is with the bases loaded. I know his line there is sexy, but it just looks fluky to me.

 

I'll put it this way -- if Counsell had a crazy good start to the season with 98 PA & a line of .407/.423/.580, would you be saying that, because of that start, he's the best option at 3B going forward? Or would you expect him to return towards career norms with more PA?

[kramnoj]

He has been with 6 organizations in MLB and failed to become a regular each time. If his statistics during that period are considered above average production then I have a differing viewpoint of above average production.

What is your viewpoint of above average production, and what is it based on? Branyan's career OPS+ is 107, where 100 would be average. In 2004-2006, his OPS+ were 115, 125, and 113. Even last year, his OPS+ was 96. That is below average, but would place him above the performance so far this year of Hall, as well as our MI and Kendall. It was also better than Hall last year, and would have put him behind only Dillon among bench players last year.

 

BA has a lower correlation to runs than OBP or slugging and k's are overrated in terms of negative value. Also, what is your definition of a regular? Branyan played in over 100 games and had over 300 ABs each year in 2001 and 2002.

[LouisEly]

FREE RUSSELL BRANYAN!!!

 

It's 2004 all over again!!

[BrewCrewForever]

I have to disagree with Powell. Branyan gives us much more then Hall probably ever will vs. RHP. And I will not rest until Branyan is up getting a start or two a week and coming off our bench as a pinch hitter. Free 3TO!

[logan82]

See this is a topic where I am not sure what to think. I don't like Hall or his defense at any infield postion. Seeing him play less would make me happy. However, if we didn't think Hall was a platoon guy or close to a platoon guy at the start of the season, why should we think he is now? Unless I am taking it to far with sample size, we should expect Hall to return to his predicted production at some point. He has never struggled against RHP like he has this year. I can see giving Counsell one more start a week in place of Hall, but any more than that and I think it is just wrong. If the coaches are seeing something in his swing that makes them think Hall is a little off right now I can see playing him a little less until he gets back on track, but just looking at numbers I see no reason to platoon Hall. Of course I could be way off.

[adambr2]

Branyan's current stats against RHP (the only lineups he'd be facing, obviously).

 

.389, 10 HR in 108 AB, 1.266 OPS

 

I can't figure out what the heck he's still doing down there. Is this not exactly what we signed him for? In case Hall struggled and we needed to consider a platoon? Even if you call this year a fluke, Branyan is still a far better option against RHP than Counsell. For the life of me, I can't figure out what Melvin and Yost are thinking. I'm so tired of the "What if we need to get rid of him and he doesn't clear waivers??" argument from them. If we're worried about that, what the heck do we need him for anyway?? We'll never bring him up, since we're worried about having to send him back down.

 

Can management please start considering the current state of the team when making decisions, rather than always stroking their chins and thinking, "But what if THIS happens?"

[trwi7]

Slappy is now batting .200 so nobody can use the he has a low batting average! At least he can draw some walks and hit for power. Slappy is worthless to this team, Melvin, get it through your head.

 

Edit: I was just checking out the Reds/Padres highlight on gameday and before Adam Dunn hit his homer in the 9th Matt Vasgersian was talking about Russell Branyan and 3TO. Good stuff.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2008_05_23_cinmlb_sdnmlb_1

[1992casey]

Is this not exactly what we signed [branyan] for? In case Hall struggled and we needed to consider a platoon? Even if you call this year a fluke, Branyan is still a far better option against RHP than Counsell. For the life of me, I can't figure out what Melvin and Yost are thinking. I'm so tired of the "What if we need to get rid of him and he doesn't clear waivers??" argument from them.

Has management actually said those things? Or have they come from the taped glasses and pocket protector-wearing nerds on baseball message boards?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Is this not exactly what we signed [branyan] for? In case Hall struggled and we needed to consider a platoon? Even if you call this year a fluke, Branyan is still a far better option against RHP than Counsell. For the life of me, I can't figure out what Melvin and Yost are thinking. I'm so tired of the "What if we need to get rid of him and he doesn't clear waivers??" argument from them.

Has management actually said those things? Or have they come from the taped glasses and pocket protector-wearing nerds on baseball message boards?

Why else would you sign Branyan?

[kramnoj]

Why else would you sign Branyan?

 

Replacement in case of injury to Hall. If Hall were to go down for the season, Branyan would be the best option for a starter, maybe in a platoon with Dillon.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So just injury? I would think non production would be a factor too, but that's just my opinion.

[kramnoj]

So just injury? I would think non production would be a factor too, but that's just my opinion.

 

It's clear that Hall not producing isn't enough of a factor for the team to call up Branyan, as witnessed by Counsell getting games against right handers. Although the team isn't saying it, it basically appears that they want to have Gwynn on the roster rather than Branyan. Not sure why.

[BrewCrewForever]

After seeing what Gwynn has done since that opening series in Chicago, there is no excuse to have him on the big club over Branyan. It's not like we need him for the OF since the three starters will hardly get any days off and when they do Kapler can play all three spots and Dillon can play both corners. If Branyan is not up soon Im gonna be very upset.

[1992casey]

Tuesdays, adambr2 asked, "Is this not exactly what we signed [branyan] for? In case Hall struggled and we needed to consider a platoon?."

 

I asked him whether or not this came from the club because it struck me as unusual that it would make comments about a signing being insurance against another player struggling.

[thablingster]

In the JS blog about why Branyan wasn't called up, Ned was quoting as saying they liked their bench and flexibility right now and that is the main reason they didn't call Branyan (or anyone else) up for the interleague series. He also hinted that they had no thoughts of platooning Hall (going as far as to say "We have Billy at third base", which is mostly fluff talk, but I digress), but even in the past week that has been proven to be false.

 

We all know what we'd be getting with Branyan. He wouldn't magically make us start winning, but considering the current state of our bench where the best shot we have for a HR in late innings is Mike Rivera, who Ned will very rarely use as a pinch hitter (and has a whopping 11 career home runs), Branyan has some value. If needed, Branyan could also fill in at 1B and LF, which while that is mostly Joe Dillon's job, it would be helpful to have another guy who could do it (and it could create some nice platoon opportunities where Branyan could face a RHP if Ned decides to give Braun a day off against a RHP).

 

I personally believe the addition of Branyan to the bench would help our team offensively more than anyone else on our bench currently does with the bat. At this point what does it really hurt to try?

[BrewCrewForever]

Great post blingster. How Melvin and Yost can't see that a left handed power bat like Branyan would help out our bench is beyond me. Also when you factor in how much Hall has struggled against RHP Branyan would be a better option then Counsell as far as a "soft" platoon is concerned. Why don't they just pull the trigger on this move already.

 

 

(edit: removed long quote... There's no need to ever quote a three paragraph message, and there's no need to quote at all in this case. The comment is on the entire message located one post above --1992)

[tomter38]

Anyone else think the reason they are not bringing up Branyan for a full platoon is that they don't want to do that to Billy after he's been very flexible with the organization moving from infield to outfield back to infield and not complaining a whole lot about it? I feel like giving him this many opportunities to figure it out against righties could be a way of "paying him back."

Now don't get me wrong here fellas I want 3T0 up here as much as anyone, but seems like something stupid like this could be playing a role?