BPro projected records (Latest: THT predicts Brewers finish 1st)

[Ennder]

They are also a pretty old team and they lost their 2nd best RP and one of their best hitters and didn't replace them with anything. Their depth chart doesn't include Bedard and there is no #1 starter listed so I think their standings might be messed up as well.

[Leinie Lodge]

Central	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chicago Cubs	89	73	845	759	.274	.343	.452

So.....the BP model predicts Cubs go from .422 SLG in '07 to scorch a .452 SLG, which will top NYY, CLE, DET, MKE, PHL, CIN and everyone else. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif How does this work???

 

 

[Leinie Lodge]

Central	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chicago Cubs	89	73	845	759	.274	.343	.452

So.....the BP model predicts Cubs go from .422 SLG in '07 to scorch a .452 SLG, which will top NYY, CLE, DET, MKE, PHL, CIN and everyone else. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif How does this work???

 

 

[Ennder]

They are really high on Soto, Fukudome and Pie.

 

Soriano - .544

Theriot - .347

Lee - .527

Aramis - .536

Fukudome - .504

DeRosa - .439

Soto - .470

Pie - .479

Murton - .462

Ward - 459

 

Now I agree with you, I think BPro is just too optimistic on the Cubs hitting but I do expect their hitting to be better than last year still.

[Ennder]

They are really high on Soto, Fukudome and Pie.

 

Soriano - .544

Theriot - .347

Lee - .527

Aramis - .536

Fukudome - .504

DeRosa - .439

Soto - .470

Pie - .479

Murton - .462

Ward - 459

 

Now I agree with you, I think BPro is just too optimistic on the Cubs hitting but I do expect their hitting to be better than last year still.

[Leinie Lodge]

Thanks for the BP numbers Ennder, great stuff.

 

After seeing aggregate team numbers, I'm wondering if the BP staff goes back to question PECOTA assumptions.

Cubs team SLG really seems skewed high compared to fully-loaded AL lineups.

But hey, if the model requires the Cubs top the majors in Slugging in order to win NL Central, I love OUR chances more!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Leinie Lodge]

Thanks for the BP numbers Ennder, great stuff.

 

After seeing aggregate team numbers, I'm wondering if the BP staff goes back to question PECOTA assumptions.

Cubs team SLG really seems skewed high compared to fully-loaded AL lineups.

But hey, if the model requires the Cubs top the majors in Slugging in order to win NL Central, I love OUR chances more!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[razzzorsharp]

Things that stand out to me: 1) Rays, like already mentioned, having a winning record in the toughest division (in my mind) in baseball. 2) Phillies behind Braves (albeit 2 games). Howard, Rollins, and Utley are three MVP canidates, that should account for more in my mind. 3) I think this is the big rebuilding year for the A's. I think less than 70 wins is a real possibility. 4) Besides the NL race, being the Brewer fan I am, the other race I am excited to see is the Indians/Tigers. I really want to see how this Tiger lineup gells together. 5) I think the Cardinals will be in the race again. I don't know how, I don't know why, but I fear them. When is Carpenter expected back?

[razzzorsharp]

Things that stand out to me: 1) Rays, like already mentioned, having a winning record in the toughest division (in my mind) in baseball. 2) Phillies behind Braves (albeit 2 games). Howard, Rollins, and Utley are three MVP canidates, that should account for more in my mind. 3) I think this is the big rebuilding year for the A's. I think less than 70 wins is a real possibility. 4) Besides the NL race, being the Brewer fan I am, the other race I am excited to see is the Indians/Tigers. I really want to see how this Tiger lineup gells together. 5) I think the Cardinals will be in the race again. I don't know how, I don't know why, but I fear them. When is Carpenter expected back?

[SoCalBrewfan]

Thanks for posting those numbers...

 

They project the Cubs to score 845 runs? Wow. That's up from 751 last year, and would make them basically the best offense in the league...not sure I see that offense as a hundred runs better.

 

It's also interesting to see the Brewers going from 779 runs allowed to 765. With the defensive changes I would be tempted to expect more of an improvement...

 

I'd take 87 wins and a playoff berth, though. Yeah, I'd take that.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Thanks for posting those numbers...

 

They project the Cubs to score 845 runs? Wow. That's up from 751 last year, and would make them basically the best offense in the league...not sure I see that offense as a hundred runs better.

 

It's also interesting to see the Brewers going from 779 runs allowed to 765. With the defensive changes I would be tempted to expect more of an improvement...

 

I'd take 87 wins and a playoff berth, though. Yeah, I'd take that.

[twobrewers]

Looking at these projections, and reading other Brewer related articles - Am I the only one getting sick of the NL Central always being called the weakest division?

I don't expect too much from the Astros or the Pirates. But I think the Reds, Cubs and Brewers all have a good shot at 85 wins.

Everyone seems to be overlooking the Reds - but they actually have a ton of talent over there. Harang and Arroyo give them a good 1/2 punch. (They might add Blanton) Homer Bailey was projected to be better than Yovanni. Cordero vastly improved their bullpen.

Votto is a pretty highly regarded prospect at 1B. Phillips is fantastic at 2B. Encarnacion is a pretty solid 3B. And an outfield of Dunn, Griffey and Jay Bruce might be the best in all of baseball.

(The Reds scare me)

For a frame of reference, Jim Callis the past two weeks has been asked questions about Jay Bruce. Callis loves Ryan Braun. He also loves Prince Fielder. Callis said he would take Bruce over either of them. That is some pretty high praise!

[twobrewers]

Looking at these projections, and reading other Brewer related articles - Am I the only one getting sick of the NL Central always being called the weakest division?

I don't expect too much from the Astros or the Pirates. But I think the Reds, Cubs and Brewers all have a good shot at 85 wins.

Everyone seems to be overlooking the Reds - but they actually have a ton of talent over there. Harang and Arroyo give them a good 1/2 punch. (They might add Blanton) Homer Bailey was projected to be better than Yovanni. Cordero vastly improved their bullpen.

Votto is a pretty highly regarded prospect at 1B. Phillips is fantastic at 2B. Encarnacion is a pretty solid 3B. And an outfield of Dunn, Griffey and Jay Bruce might be the best in all of baseball.

(The Reds scare me)

For a frame of reference, Jim Callis the past two weeks has been asked questions about Jay Bruce. Callis loves Ryan Braun. He also loves Prince Fielder. Callis said he would take Bruce over either of them. That is some pretty high praise!

[Leinie Lodge]

SoCal...Cubs projected to add nearly 100 more runs in '08, netting a higher run total than BOS, CLE or DET, and Slug better than every team period, all without benefit of a DH.

 

BP runs their projections at the Cubby Bear?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[Leinie Lodge]

SoCal...Cubs projected to add nearly 100 more runs in '08, netting a higher run total than BOS, CLE or DET, and Slug better than every team period, all without benefit of a DH.

 

BP runs their projections at the Cubby Bear?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[Ennder]

Well they project Fukudome to have a .400 OBP and .900 SLG and Soto to be one of the best C's in the NL. I don't think either of those will actually happen.

 

twobrewers, I agree with you but it is really a new thing. This division has been terrible for a while now but it has added some of the best young talent in the game in it over the last few years and has some of the best young talent still coming. These things go in cycles and I think the NL Central is on the upswing right now.

[Ennder]

Well they project Fukudome to have a .400 OBP and .900 SLG and Soto to be one of the best C's in the NL. I don't think either of those will actually happen.

 

twobrewers, I agree with you but it is really a new thing. This division has been terrible for a while now but it has added some of the best young talent in the game in it over the last few years and has some of the best young talent still coming. These things go in cycles and I think the NL Central is on the upswing right now.