BPro projected records (Latest: THT predicts Brewers finish 1st)

[Ennder]

Thought people might be interested in this.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

EDIT: Removed subscriber-only material - b19

 

Keep in mind PECOTA is very high on Fukudome, Pie and Soto. If even one of those guys flames out I think we are the 'favorites' by their system.

 

 

EDIT: Updated title - 1992

[Ennder]

Thought people might be interested in this.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

EDIT: Removed subscriber-only material - b19

 

Keep in mind PECOTA is very high on Fukudome, Pie and Soto. If even one of those guys flames out I think we are the 'favorites' by their system.

 

 

EDIT: Updated title - 1992

[logan82]

Yeah 2 wins is almost nothing as we know from last year(walk off by A-Ram being the difference last year), specially given we play head to head so much

[logan82]

Yeah 2 wins is almost nothing as we know from last year(walk off by A-Ram being the difference last year), specially given we play head to head so much

[sheetswannabe]

Ill take the WC.

[sheetswannabe]

Ill take the WC.

[pebadger]

Well, if this means the Crew gets the wildcard, I guess I'd take it, as much as it would suck to finish behind 'them'.

[pebadger]

Well, if this means the Crew gets the wildcard, I guess I'd take it, as much as it would suck to finish behind 'them'.

[RickieDROPSbombs]

Only 86 wins for the Diamondbacks with all of their pitching?

[RickieDROPSbombs]

Only 86 wins for the Diamondbacks with all of their pitching?

[pebadger]

Looking closer, I note that there are only three projected 90+ win teams.

 

Could be right, but I don't remember the last time there were fewer than 5 or 6 90-win teams. I can remember a few years when there were 8 or more. Maybe everyone will just be more competitive and records will be pulled to the middle, but I'm guessing things will just happen that are unanticipated and we'll see at least 5 again.

[pebadger]

Looking closer, I note that there are only three projected 90+ win teams.

 

Could be right, but I don't remember the last time there were fewer than 5 or 6 90-win teams. I can remember a few years when there were 8 or more. Maybe everyone will just be more competitive and records will be pulled to the middle, but I'm guessing things will just happen that are unanticipated and we'll see at least 5 again.

[Ennder]

Nah, these are all regressed towards the mean and don't include injuries, breakouts etc. A few of those 86 projections will be 90+ and a few will end up around 81.

 

I actually don't expect the Diamondbacks to make that 86 win projection so not surprised by it. I think that team last year wasn't as good as the Cardinals world series team personally. They are better this year but in that division I don't think they stand out.

[Ennder]

Nah, these are all regressed towards the mean and don't include injuries, breakouts etc. A few of those 86 projections will be 90+ and a few will end up around 81.

 

I actually don't expect the Diamondbacks to make that 86 win projection so not surprised by it. I think that team last year wasn't as good as the Cardinals world series team personally. They are better this year but in that division I don't think they stand out.

[logan82]

I wouldn't mind the WC as it usually means you are the 2nd best team in the league, next to the team that wins your division. A WC team has made the WS every year except once since the WC has been introduced.

[logan82]

I wouldn't mind the WC as it usually means you are the 2nd best team in the league, next to the team that wins your division. A WC team has made the WS every year except once since the WC has been introduced.

[pitchleague]

I'm actually surprised that they have the Rays as a winning team, despite the 2nd lowest team BA in the AL.

 

Heck, take away that stat and I'm STILL surprised that they have them as a winning team.

[pitchleague]

I'm actually surprised that they have the Rays as a winning team, despite the 2nd lowest team BA in the AL.

 

Heck, take away that stat and I'm STILL surprised that they have them as a winning team.

[RickieDROPSbombs]

But still I'd be happy with a wild card projection if we were behind anyone but the Cubs.

[RickieDROPSbombs]

But still I'd be happy with a wild card projection if we were behind anyone but the Cubs.

[crewcrazy]

I'm actually surprised that they have the Rays as a winning team, despite the 2nd lowest team BA in the AL.

 

Heck, take away that stat and I'm STILL surprised that they have them as a winning team.

I'm not all that surprised -- that rotation might actually be one of the best in the division with Kazmir-Shields-Garza at the top, and they have a lot of good young hitters (even if they did trade away Delmon Young). Their success will probably come down to their bullpen, as it has the past couple years. The story of the Rays franchise has been something like "Kazmir strikes out 13 in 6 innings with 120 pitches, leaves the game with a 1-run lead, bullpen gives up 6 runs, Rays lose." They've gone to great lengths to attempt to improve that bullpen...I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up the first winning season in franchise history. Outside of Boston/New York, it looks like it'll be a down year for the AL East with Baltimore playing for draft position and Toronto just hanging around the .500 mark with some injury questions.

What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown. That's not something I really bought, though, since they had some pretty big offensive issues last year and didn't do their offense any favors this year by trading away Adam Jones. I thought it was really interesting that the Mariners and the Giants are the only two teams with projected SLG's under .400.

As for the Brewers, I'd take a 4-game improvement over last year if it meant a wildcard berth. Finishing 2 games behind the division leader again would be a tough pill to swallow, but like everyone else has said, a 2-game swing isn't all that much and could be decided by any number of things. Things could be worse -- the Brewers could be projected 10 games behind the division leader like the Braves are behind the Mets (I realize that Santana in the NL projects to some crazy numbers, but the rest of their rotation is kind of iffy and they're coming off the biggest chokejob in the history of the league).

[crewcrazy]

I'm actually surprised that they have the Rays as a winning team, despite the 2nd lowest team BA in the AL.

 

Heck, take away that stat and I'm STILL surprised that they have them as a winning team.

I'm not all that surprised -- that rotation might actually be one of the best in the division with Kazmir-Shields-Garza at the top, and they have a lot of good young hitters (even if they did trade away Delmon Young). Their success will probably come down to their bullpen, as it has the past couple years. The story of the Rays franchise has been something like "Kazmir strikes out 13 in 6 innings with 120 pitches, leaves the game with a 1-run lead, bullpen gives up 6 runs, Rays lose." They've gone to great lengths to attempt to improve that bullpen...I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up the first winning season in franchise history. Outside of Boston/New York, it looks like it'll be a down year for the AL East with Baltimore playing for draft position and Toronto just hanging around the .500 mark with some injury questions.

What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown. That's not something I really bought, though, since they had some pretty big offensive issues last year and didn't do their offense any favors this year by trading away Adam Jones. I thought it was really interesting that the Mariners and the Giants are the only two teams with projected SLG's under .400.

As for the Brewers, I'd take a 4-game improvement over last year if it meant a wildcard berth. Finishing 2 games behind the division leader again would be a tough pill to swallow, but like everyone else has said, a 2-game swing isn't all that much and could be decided by any number of things. Things could be worse -- the Brewers could be projected 10 games behind the division leader like the Braves are behind the Mets (I realize that Santana in the NL projects to some crazy numbers, but the rest of their rotation is kind of iffy and they're coming off the biggest chokejob in the history of the league).

[rluzinski]

What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown.

 

It's hard to ignore that, despite their 88 win finish, they were actually outscored over the length of the season, 794 to 813. I don't think Vegas is very high on Seattle either.

[rluzinski]

What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown.

 

It's hard to ignore that, despite their 88 win finish, they were actually outscored over the length of the season, 794 to 813. I don't think Vegas is very high on Seattle either.

[Ennder]

They are also a pretty old team and they lost their 2nd best RP and one of their best hitters and didn't replace them with anything. Their depth chart doesn't include Bedard and there is no #1 starter listed so I think their standings might be messed up as well.