60 Hr's for Braun???

[trwi7]

What about the 15 HR v. LHP in 111 AB, though? That's a skew-worthy rate, isn't it?

 

Maybe he just sees the ball extremely well out of a lefties hand. I remember an article saying that when he was a kid his dad would always pitch to him and he was left handed so maybe he just sees the ball exceptionally well out of a lefties hand.

[homer]

As I recall his minorleague splits against lefties were Nintendo like as well. Maybe he's just a freak.

[sbrylski]

Braun's BABIP of 1.000 on balls hit over the fence is highly sustainable though, the subset we are looking at.

 

What about the 15 HR v. LHP in 111 AB, though? That's a skew-worthy rate, isn't it?

Likely. My point was that BABIP shouldn't effect HR totals, at least I can't imagine why it would.

[brewtank34]

If Fielder is protected by Braun in the line-up, then I could see Fielder hitting 60 someday. With Braun protected by Fielder, then I could see Braun hitting 55 tops...I don't see #8 hitting 60 ever in his career. Fielder though definetly has a GOOD chance.

[sbrylski]

To expand on that, if you use his larger sample verse RHP and adjust it based on the league average splits for RHB to get Braun's expected production verse LHP, it reduces his HR total by about 8. (I'm using fairly rough numbers) I think looking at his killer minor league splits we can assume he'll have a bit larger split, so we could be talking just a 4 or 5 HR adjustment of his last year HR totals. That would set him up for 40 HR in a full season (150 games) even if he doesn't get any better.

 

So I guess even with a rough regression of his LHP splits to the mean, I'd still project 40-45 HR for Ryan.

[rluzinski]

"I wouldn't think there is anyone that's necessarily considered a "threat" to hit 60 Hr's. Hitters can be legitimate 40-50 Hr guys, but I don't think you'll ever hear that someone is a "60 HR guy". I tend to think if a guy is considered a threat to hit 40-50, he has the power to possibly hit 60. I would think a guy who normally hits 45 would have a better chance of hitting 60 than a guy that normally hits 5 has of hitting 20...if that makes sense."

 

Sure, since you are really talking about a percentage increase. Even a great power hitter probably only has an expected HR total of around 45 HRs per 600 ABs That would mean that, for every AB, they have about a 7.5% chance of hitting a HR. By random chance, they could hit much less or more than that. For instance, over 600 AB:

 

Chance of hitting:

50+ HRs: 24%

55+ HRs: 7%

60+ HRs: 1.5%

 

Fielder seems like a very special player in the power department, however. I would be comfortable assuming that he could really be a true 50 HR hitter for at least a few years, which gives him the following odds:

 

55+: 24%

60+: 8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RickieDROPSbombs]

I'm not really sure either one will hit 60 but common 40 is a lot and if each hits 45 or around there for the next 5 years I'll be happy.

[Kurt]

I really don't think anyone is giving Braun enough credit on this thread. Braun just keeps getting better. We really don't know the ceiling for this guy. In his 767 minor league at bats he had a .313 AVG with a .572 SLG. Now, he gets to the major league. The most competitive league in the world and in 451 at bats he hits .324 with a SLG of .634?!?! 62 SLG points higher in his rookie year in the bigs?! We even still do not know the limit of this guy yet! 60 HRs seems very possible.

[brewtank34]

Kurt, I like your enthusiasm!!!!!!!

 

This is OUR year!!!! GO BREWERS!!!!

[istanbultaye]

I don't quite get why BABIP was mentioned myself. Aren't all plate appearance that result in HR, K, and BB taken out of that equation?

[TooLiveBrew]

BABIP = (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

 

I mentioned it bc sometimes it's just good luck to have a high BABIP, sometimes it's due to hitting the ball pretty hard, and probably in most cases it's a bit of both. I'm looking into BABIP & HR a bit more... if I find anything that looks to correllate, I'll share it (I'm expecting that I probably won't, though).

 

In his 767 minor league at bats he had a .313 AVG with a .572 SLG. Now, he gets to the major league. The most competitive league in the world and in 451 at bats he hits .324 with a SLG of .634?!?! 62 SLG points higher in his rookie year in the bigs?! We even still do not know the limit of this guy yet! 60 HRs seems very possible.

 

.450/.516/.964/1.480 -- there's your answer for why Braun's SLG was so high. His line v. LHP, that no one under the sun posts in anything but a small sample like Ryan's 111 AB v. LHP last year.

[owbc]

Prince will not hit 60 because he has no desire to hit 60. McGwire and Sosa were trying for a HR every at-bat. Prince has said he wants to be a doubles hitter also.

[TerraceReserved]

I really don't think anyone is giving Braun enough credit on this thread. Braun just keeps getting better. We really don't know the ceiling for this guy. In his 767 minor league at bats he had a .313 AVG with a .572 SLG. Now, he gets to the major league. The most competitive league in the world and in 451 at bats he hits .324 with a SLG of .634?!?! 62 SLG points higher in his rookie year in the bigs?! We even still do not know the limit of this guy yet! 60 HRs seems very possible.

 

I think if anything, Braun slugging 62 points higher in the majors than minors indicates he is due for a regression, largely due to his unsustainable numbers against lefties..

[Bikeage77]

It's really hard to say for either of them. I don't think the odds that either hits 60 this year are very good. Pitchers will continue to adapt to both guys, likewise, both Fielder and Braun will continue to adapt to pitchers. Will pitchers make more or less mistakes to either guy than last year, do they both just have freak power that they can go yard on pretty much any pitch?

 

I would imagine that there has to be at least some consideration about Braun switching to left, if that will affect him mentally at the plate. That seemed to be what happened to Hall last season, or pitchers just adjusted to him more than 2 seasons ago. I guess none of us will really know until both are in their early 30's if they will do it or not. This season and the following two will probably determine if they have a legit shot at 60. Though as someone said, both aren't looking to hit em out every time, they'd like to be situational hitters.

 

And to quick touch on why we only had 83 wins, I think it was more pitching than the overall homerun total. Our bullpen was shot because Vargas and Bush could only get through 5 innings most of the time, and Capuano didn't fare all that great either most of the season. Hopefully we won't be trotting 3 or 4 relivers out there 5 nights a week and our starters can eat more innings.

[NastyTwig]

Just a blind prediction, but I think both Weeks and Hart put up more homers than Braun this year.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm with the Twig, as Braun won't have Prince protecting him and we all saw what happened to Hardy last year when he had to fend for himself sans Prince Protection. As for Prince and the illustrious 60HR plateau he will assuredly surpass (if only so he will have more HR's in a season than his father), when he does pass it, how many will be of the "Inside the Park" variety? I'll put the over/under on...THREE!

[NastyTwig]

Oh, I wasn't slighting Braun. I still think he puts up around 30 this year.

 

I just have a very good feeling that Weeks turns a corner after becoming healthy this year. Watching him and Prince in Beloit and again in AAA, Rickie impressed me more with his power. He never really put it all together in the bigs before getting hurt a few times. He could/should become a beast.

 

This is Corey's Richie Sexson year. He's going to go nuts.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just a blind prediction, but I think both Weeks and Hart put up more homers than Braun this year.

Interesting... I like it! Way to put yourself on the line, NT. I'm not sure about this one in either way (as in - happens or not), but imo that's simply a great sign of all the uber-talented young hitters we have!

Basically, we're debating whether or not we can have 3, sub-27-y-o hitters go 30+ in dongs for this season. Yeeeha!

[RickieDROPSbombs]

NastyTwig Corey Hart will not put up a Richie Sexon type season due to the fact they are not the same player at all and the only comparison was their height. Corey doesnt have the power sexon had but i believe will but up good numbers maybe 30 homeruns but never 45 like richie. As for Rickie Weeks ( my man crush) i think he is just gonna break through this year and show the big leagues why he was the 2nd overall pick.

[hauser42]

The way the ball explodes off Braun's bat I could see him getting close to 60 as his body matures. Guy and rake with the best of them already.

 

Prince awesome power and he also could get 60 his issue would be if he would go into a cold streak like most power hitters tend to do.

 

I could care less about 60 if they are hitting 40 each a year this team will have a tough middle of the order duo.

[brosto1]

The question shouldn't be will Prince hit 60, but which uniform will he be wearing when he accomplishes it.

 

I do not think Braun will ever sniff 60.