Cole Gillespie - future Brewer leadoff hitter?

[molitor fan]

Gillespie was inserted into the Helena leadoff spot towards the end of the year - due to his .472 on base % and the fact that with his 18 steals, he apparently has a good deal of speed and instincts on the bases.

 

I think he is going to be pushed next year - maybe not like Braun, but the opportunity for multiple level movement will be there. I will be interested to see whether Gillespie's skill set makes the Brewers keep him in a middle of the lineup situation, which he can certainly hand - as his 2nd in the league OPS will attest, or if the leadoff spot is an area Gillespie will find himself in next year and beyond.

[homer]

It might be an apples to oranges comparison, but I alway wait until at least A ball to gauge where a prospect might end up. Call it "Captain Lou's Rule". Especially for a college player in the Pioneer League.

[endaround]

College players should dominate A ball. Its like high school senoirs playing high school freshman. Keep in mind Moeller dominated A ball.

[homer]

Quote:

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Keep in mind Moeller dominated A ball.

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A .790 OPS is hardly dominating.....but you're right that college guys should at least get to AA before you can judge their worth.

[molitor fan]

Top of the league in on-base %, OPS, with 18 stolen bases, a positive w/k ratio.....

 

What more do you want from a guy.

 

Seriously.

 

The Pioneer league is roughly 75% college-level players from what I have seen, so the blank statement that college players SHOULD be dominating is confusing...Should there be a 135 way tie for the OPS lead?

[pogokat]

Lou Palmisano has changed quite a bit since his rookie ball days....so don't use him as the permanent judge of stats in helena...

 

the fact that the brewers drafted cole in the 3rd round, along with his play in the CWS, and his stats in Helena...I think Cole will see AA next year...if he doesnt start there...

[colbyjack]

molitor fan makes a good point, the Pioneer League has been known as one that fields quite a few college players, so you can't just simply expect a college hitter to dominate assuming that the talent is sub-standard.

 

I do agree that you can't get too excited about one's success until they continue to prove themselves as they move up, but you can say that about just about anyone in any league at any level.

 

As for Gillespie hitting in the leadoff spot, he's back in the 3-hole tonight, where he has hit for most of the season. While he does have decent wheels, his speed probably isn't ideal for the leadoff spot, and if he keeps hitting as he has as he moves up, I think we're going to want to see him stay in that 3-hole as he's likely going to be the most complete hitter on any team he plays for unless he somehow finds himself in the same lineup as Ryan Braun next year.

 

I agree that his patience makes him an interesting option in that role.

[brewmann04]

Homer didn"t you hear that Capt Lou got demoted

to sargent Lou.

[homer]

My point is that guys put up gaudy numbers in the Pioneer League every year and then flame out in A ball (see Grant Richardson). I'm excited about Gillespie, but I can't see myself forecasting him on a Brewers roster until he can succeed at upper levels.

[DHonks]

My point is that guys put up gaudy numbers in the Pioneer League every year and then flame out in A ball (see Grant Richardson

 

actually, of Rasheed, Sollman, Richardson, Brady, Festa, etc etc, Richardson has faired fairly well. I liked to refer to those guys as the OBP boys, thinking they'd thrive, and it's been anything but success for the Helena '04 boys

[plowjockey]

Pogokat, you've mentioned that you think Gillespie will skip low A. Please expand further on why you think this will happen. Here's a couple of factors to be considered against that happening. 1st, it's just not that common. Rushing prospects is rarely the way to go in development. If "can't miss" guys like Weeks, Fielder and Braun played low A, why would we expect Gillespie to skip? 2nd, he did not get promoted mid season this year, a promotion that is often a sign that a guy is ready to handle the fast track. I agree with you that he was capable of being promoted this year and quite frankly earned a bump, but many have specualted that the current OF in WV probably blocked his move. So if he was to go straight to Brevard next year, those same guys will be there. Who's he going to bump off of that roster? I agree with you that he'll play at Brevard next year at some point, so I am looking forward to your argument that he should skip low A all together.

[pogokat]

Quote:

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If "can't miss" guys like Weeks, Fielder and Braun played low A, why would we expect Gillespie to skip?

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Prince was 18, and braun and weeks only played there at the end of their draft years...which leads me to:

 

Quote:

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2nd, he did not get promoted mid season this year, a promotion that is often a sign that a guy is ready to handle the fast track. I agree with you that he was capable of being promoted this year and quite frankly earned a bump, but many have specualted that the current OF in WV probably blocked his move. So if he was to go straight to Brevard next year, those same guys will be there. Who's he going to bump off of that roster?

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I don't think those guys are blocking him as mcuh as others do...cain and ford are going to High A for sure, and brantley might...if brantley doesnt then gillespie will start in brevard...if the brewers think brantley needs to be starting in brevard, then cole could go to huntsville...

 

The thing with college guys is that they need to move relatively fast to stay with the high school guys at the same level...cole is already a couple of years older than brantley, so if you make him play a full year at each level, then he hits the majors at 26...the brewers tend to promote college guys when they have success...and ideally, a college draft pick is gonna be in huntsville by the end of his first full season, which would be 2007 for Cole---like braun or Katin this year---so it wouldn't be unheard of for him to just start in Huntsville...especially since he dominated college and rookie ball...

 

I think cole most likely starts in High A, and i would be very surprised to see him start in WV...that's just not much of a challenge for a well developed college guy...

 

how'd i do?

[SoCalBrewfan]

Age is of course very important in these discussions...many of the past Helena phenoms have been old for the league, college seniors or older juniors like Sollman, Brady, Festa. A college hitter who is a top prospect will generally (but not always) be assigned to high A ball in his first full season, and finish the year in AA. So Jenkins started his first full season in A+, with a promotion to AA midseason. Weeks started in AA. Braun started this year in A+. Lyle Overbay started in low A, but was promoted to AA, and he was a much-lower-profile guy. Gwynn started in AA, though he probably should have been in A+.

 

Usually, but not always, the college guys that go to low A (and particularly those that spend the whole year there) are the middle-round players, who have to prove themselves every step of the way...recent Brewers in that category would be Heether or Anderson. Or guys with skills that needs development, like a good shortstop who can't hit or a slugging catcher who needs innings behind the plate. Cirillo was actually in that category many years ago, and spent virtually his first full season in Beloit...he was not viewed as a top prospect but proved himself with the bat and glove all the way up the ladder.

 

Gillespie was only a 3rd rounder, but has a big college pedigree...some comparable players would be: Eddy Martinez-Esteve, late 2nd rounder in 2004 out of Florida State, started in A+; Jeremy Reed, late 2nd in 02, started in A+ and ended in AA; Larry Broadway, high 3rd in 02, started in A and ended in AA; Curtis Granderson, high 3rd in 02, started in A+; Jason Cooper, high 3rd in 02, A then A+. Or Andre Ethier, late 2nd in 03, A+ in 04.

 

Thus I'd be surprised to see Gillespie in low A next year, though the minor league OF is crammed throughout the system. If the Brewers thought Gwynn was ready to hit in Huntsville, I'd say Gillespie is at least as prepared for A+ if not AA. I think the reasons Gillespie didn't move up earlier are twofold: he signed a bit late after a long college season including his exploits in the CWS, and the OF at WV was raking.

[plowjockey]

Cool. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

[SenatorShriv]

To be fair, Gwynn had a good half of a season of A ball before being bumped to AA. He then struggled pretty heavily during that first season in Huntsville (623 OPS in 2004.) Maybe they'll take it slower with Gillespie?

 

I personally think that A+ is the place to start Gillespie next year.

[PrimeTime955]

High A with the mid-season call up, same as they did with braun this season. Only reason he wasnt called up to WV like people said was the log jam but one of them will repeat and then go to High A when Gillespie gets moved to AA.

[Katuluu]

I still think it's more likely Cain gets bumped to AA rather then one of them repeating A ball again. None of them have struggled or shown a need for more seasoning at A ball, so it would be a rather curious move to make, as well as potentially giving off a poor message to the other prospects in the organization.

[colbyjack]

Rookie ball to AA is a crazy jump, and it's unprecedented in the Brewers' system, at least under Jack Z's watch. We've talked about this so many times now, I really don't know where Gillespie will be at, but I'm starting to think that he'll start next year in West Virginia with a strong chance to end up in AA by season's end. Skipping two levels is crazy, and as noted, there's no reason to hold back one of Brantley/Ford/Cain to move Gillespie up to BC, even if he's worthy. I still think the more likely scenario is Cain to AA & Gillespie joins Brantley & Ford in the BC OF.

 

And while we've thrown out a lot of names pointing to why (not) Gillespie will struggle as he moves up, how about Brendan Katin? He was drafted in '05, yet found his way to AA by the end of his first pro season and put up some pretty good numbers at hitter unfriendly BC.

[FVBrewerFan]

Fair to say Cain ended up being a better hitter.