Does Brian Roberts really put the Cubs over the top?

[TooLiveBrew]

I meant that with Roberts, the Cubs as a team have one of the best leadoff through cleanup battings orders in all of baseball......Roberts/Soriano/Ramirez/Lee, and dont forget Fokudome....he might wind up being a pretty decent #5 hitter. I expect him to hit 20+ HR and hit around .270

 

Oops - sorry! That point very well could be true... though I don't personally think Soriano would/should hit in the top 4 of an order. #5 imo is the ideal spot for his swing.

 

the affordable Aaron Rowand

 

At first I thought you were being sarcastic - 5 years, $60 mil. is most certainly not affordable. We signed Cameron to a 1-yr./$7 mil. deal, with a team option for a $10 mil. second year (and only a $750k buyout!).

 

I think Gagne will be a slight downgrade from Cordero, but not enough to count for much more than maybe one game... and the overall bullpen improvement should well offset that.

[logan82]

Didn't Gagne actually have better secondary stats like K rate and BB rate in Boston, but get worse results?

[jjfanec]

The first half of the season Gagne had an ERA of 1.32, an opposing BA of .158 and a WHIP under 1. His strikeout and BB stats did get better in Boston but the opponent BA sky-rocketed.

[TooLiveBrew]

He gave up some big innings that skewed his overall performance in Boston, since it was just 18 2/3 IP.

[DrWood]

I don't see how theriot at SS is an offensive inadequacy, particularly when compared to pie at CF. And Soto is no sure thing.

 

To be honest, I don't really think the additions made or likely to be made will determine the outcome in the divisional race. What will be most important is if the young brewers improve and the older cubs decline.

That, and injuries.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's not just offense with Theriot, he's not good defensively, either - but the offense alone is bad enough for concern.

 

Avg. NL SS (2007): .279/.337/.420/.757

 

Theriot (2007): .266/.326/.346/.672

 

 

Also, not sure why you're so down on Pie. 2007 NL CF avg. line: .273/.336/.426/.762. That's just about what every projection system has Felix doing in '08, and imho PECOTA's the only one (.284/.339/.470/.809) that's got him anything more than pessimistic.

[ILuvDaBush]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I actually thought the Gagne acquisition was a lateral move instead of a downgrade. As for the Cubs 1-4, give me the Red Sox 1-4 everyday. And as pointed out earlier, our revamped bullpen should greatly improve upon last year's putrid numbers from the backend of the bullpen, while also allowing Turnbow to not be taxed as much. As mentioned earlier, if they had secured A-Rod as a SS, then I'd say they were just put over the top. IF!!! they trade for Brian Roberts, they will have nominally upgraded the position, while alienating their highest paid player (Soriano, who has stated he prefers batting leadoff countless times). Let's see Brian Roberts perform on a contender sans HGH.

[DrWood]

pie hasn't done anything yet, and it's not like he's ever been a top 5 prospect. he might end up fine, and even do well in 2008, but I can't see why anyone would be confident in that.

[TooLiveBrew]

Every projection system has him at lg-avg. for CF or better, so I just don't see why you're so skeptical. He's been young for every stop he's made in the minors, and done just fine. In fact, he really outproduced what Soriano did in the minors, yet here Soriano is as a top hitter. Not sure what being/not being a top-5 has to do with anything here. Was Corey Hart ever a top-5?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Let's not forget about the changes that've been made by the Brewers - actually of bigger impact than anything the Cubs have done. If the Cubs get Roberts, perhaps then they've improved as much as the Brewers have this offseason."

 

Anything?

 

They replaced 2 poorly-aging, declining outfielders in Jacque Floyd, with Kosuke Fukudome, who seems to be a .300 hitter with 15-20 HR pop, who can steal and play Gold Glove-caliber defense in right. That's a major upgrade. I'd also wager that Geovanny Soto all year will prove to be an upgrade over Jason Kendall in Chicago, last year.

 

Otherwise, yeah, they didn't undergo a major facelift, I agree. But they didn't require one, as the Brewers didn't.

 

If they add Roberts, that's a problem for us. He's a quality leadoff man, something they lacked. It also means DeRosa now slides into the Bill Hall role, circa 2005, getting 400-500 ABs in 3, 4 or 5 different positions, providing quality relief when injuries strike, or when rest is needed. Their pitching acquisitions didn't do much for me, as Lieber's an older, banged-up version of Suppan for less money, and Trachsel's just OK.

 

For us, Cameroon should be better than the combined contributions of Menchkins, but not by much. CoCoCo to Gagne is a downgrade, and I'm not thrilled with our 2, 3 or 5 catchers. I love the Riske signing, but Turnbow's still going to pitch too often, and Torres and Mota in 2008 don't inspire confidence. A few years ago, yeah, but....

 

Without Roberts, we still have a very good chance of catching the Cubs. But with him, it's really tough. And with Ned? Much tougher....

[TooLiveBrew]

They replaced 2 poorly-aging, declining outfielders in Jacque Floyd, with Kosuke Fukudome, who seems to be a .300 hitter with 15-20 HR pop, who can steal and play Gold Glove-caliber defense in right. That's a major upgrade. I'd also wager that Geovanny Soto all year will prove to be an upgrade over Jason Kendall in Chicago, last year.

 

Fukudome isn't going to be that much of an upgrade over Jones/Floyd. Cameron's impact alone (Braun to LF, Hall to 3B, improved d in CF, better O than Menchkins) will far outweigh that move. Floyd went .284/.373/.422/.795 in 2007. Poorly aging? Hardly. Jones (.285/.335/.400/.735) really wasn't far off from career norms - not really aging poorly, either. He actually outperformed his career OBP in '07. Fukudome should be a modest improvement, but he has health concerns which may end up limiting his PT.

 

Not sure why you pick Kendall as the C comparison, since he only played a couple months for the Cubs - but Soto will likely be an upgrade for them. By how much is anyone's guess, since his BABIP will not be in the stratosphere like it was for all of 2007 (minors included). Without that sky-high BABIP, Soto isn't anything all too special last year. It's just too hard to predict as of now, but like I said - I agree he'll be most likely an improvement. I'm not sold that it'll be anything that's going to make a huge difference.

 

Roberts would help them, to be sure. But he doesn't solve the black hole at SS that's the Cubs' achilles heel in terms of position players. Maybe DeRosa can log some innings at SS, but given how long he's been in MLB, if he could handle the position full-time, he'd have probably gotten that shot by now, given his offense. Could Roberts handle SS? Perhaps, but I honestly just don't know.

[DrWood]

describing Theriot as a black hole is a tremendous exagerration.

[erbacaine04]

Roberts does not help the Cubs out that much.... he has had 2 years where he has been over .350OBP....

Plus if Soriano is moved from the Leadoff spot you make him very upset and whiny...

Also if Soriano is moved to batting 2nd then that kills the Speed of Roberts...since Soriano is a first pitch fastball swinger... He wont be looking at pitches to allow Roberts to steal a base.

 

Fukudome is ONLY an upgrade on Defense and maybe OBP in Right..... The Cubs RFers combined for a .295BA/ .375OBP/ 12HRs/ 80RBI.....to me thats about what Fukudome will give... his line will probably be .275Ba/ .380OBP/ 15Hrs/ 80RBI

 

Roberts is not much of an upgrade Defensively either...Derosa and Roberts actually are pretty similar with the glove

 

Soto is an upgrade for them Defensively....and should be in the .265BA/ .325OBP/ 16HR range but he could be much worse.... it took him 3 years at triple to finally have a good year in Triple A...

 

Theriot is below average SS... and Below average at the plate...

 

They have a ton of question marks... and Pie and Theriot are big offensive holes....

 

Soto and Fukudome are big questions in terms of potential production..

 

 

I think the Cubs offense will be better this year...but I also think their pitching regresses...looking at BABIP and FIP numbers that looks like a resonable expectation

[Ennder]

They replaced 2 poorly-aging, declining outfielders in Jacque Floyd, with Kosuke Fukudome, who seems to be a .300 hitter with 15-20 HR pop, who can steal and play Gold Glove-caliber defense in right

Cubs RF's hit .293/.375/.419/.794 last year. I don't think it is a given that a 30 year old player coming off of elbow problems who has never had an AB in the majors is much of an upgrade.

 

I'd say it is less of an upgrade than Cameron replacing Menchkins since our LF's hit .261/.318/.453/.771 last year. Keeping in mind that OBP is roughly 1.7-1.8 times more important than SLG.

[TooLiveBrew]

describing Theriot as a black hole is a tremendous exagerration.

 

Perhaps it is, that I can admit (did I call him that?). What phrase do you prefer? He's bad offensively, and below-average (at best) with the glove.

 

Abyss? Deep trench?

[DrWood]

Keeping in mind that OBP is roughly 1.7-1.8 times more important than SLG.

that would mean a guy that had a .400/.400/.800 OBP/SLG/OPS would be as valuable (.400x1.75 + .400=1.100) as a guy that had a .320/.540/.860 (.320*1.75 + .540 = 1.100). hmm. I'd kinda like to have both kinds of guys in my lineup.

this is just an observation.

[Tbadder]

I think when the difference between two clubs is as close as the Crew and the Cubbies, then the acquisition of Roberts could indeed put them over the top. But that doesn't mean the Brewers won't reply in kind. If the Melvin does anything to solidify our rotation with a package of youngsters and major leaguers to obtain a really good starter then it's the Cubs who may be sunk even if they do get Roberts. But to say Roberts scares me, well, it's the truth.

 

P.S. The day is coming very soon when a five year 60 million dollar contract is very cheap indeed!

[hauser42]

IF Roberts becomes a Cub he upgrades the hitting at 2B and most likekly the #2 spot in the batting order. The over value he gives the Cubs will be minimal. They are going to have to give up something to get Roberts and most likely it will be young arms.

 

Marquis and Lilly will be hard to repeat last season so I dont see the Cubs as good in pitching like some, they could use those young arms to eat up some innings this year and beyond.

[mletto157]

I don't see why so many people are seeing Gagne as this huge downgrade to Cordero.... If anything I see it as more of a lateral movement. Let's not forget that Gagne was a Cy Young winner a few years ago. And this being his 2nd year from surgery he should be somewhat back to his former self. Last year was year 1 back from surgery - the year in which all pitchers see down stats - and to be honest, he wasn't even bad last year. He had a decent year. Yeah, he had a couple of blowup innings in Boston, but come on... it's Boston, I'm willing to bet he was nervous as heck; but still his K/BB's were great.

[erbacaine04]

I don't see why so many people are seeing Gagne as this huge downgrade to Cordero.... If anything I see it as more of a lateral movement. Let's not forget that Gagne was a Cy Young winner a few years ago. And this being his 2nd year from surgery he should be somewhat back to his former self. Last year was year 1 back from surgery - the year in which all pitchers see down stats - and to be honest, he wasn't even bad last year. He had a decent year. Yeah, he had a couple of blowup innings in Boston, but come on... it's Boston, I'm willing to bet he was nervous as heck; but still his K/BB's were great.

I dont see it as a HUGE downgrade but I do see it as a down grade because you have to be careful with injury concerns...... I think our Bull Pen is Better as a whole however...with Mota/ Riske/ Torress/ Gagne replacing Wise/ Linebrink/ Aquino/ Cordero

[Fear The Chorizo]

Judging by what the Mariners had to give up in order to land Bedard, if the Cubs trade for Roberts, they're really going to thin out pitching depth that could help out their roster in 08 (Gallagher and/or Kevin Hart). Also, trading for Roberts doesn't solve their SS problem, and it would basically force DeRosa back into a part-time, super sub role.

 

I don't see the Orioles budging with their asking price for Roberts, because they could always wait until the trading deadline to move him and probably have more teams interested in acquiring him. Roberts is a good player, but whether he improves the Cubs' roster depends on what players the Cubs have to give up in order to acquire him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really agree with your summary, FTC. Especially...

 

Also, trading for Roberts doesn't solve their SS problem, and it would basically force DeRosa back into a part-time, super sub role.

 

Right - and DeRosa has already publicly expressed that this would frustrate him. Not saying I'd care if I were a Cubs fan, but there's that to consider. Maybe the Cubs feel comfortable enough with DeRosa getting time in RF (in addition to 3B/2B/SS) that they aren't worried about his ABs.