The Jason Kendall thread

[pogokat]

considering that kendall doesn't even have doubles power, wouldn't it make sense that his babip is lower...i mean, i wouldn't expect a guy who only hits weak grounders and popups to have a high babip

[Ennder]

It would but his power didn't really change last year, in fact his ISO was the highest it's been since 2004. His HR/FB was just a tiny bit lower than previous years. He did popout more than normal but not nearly enough to make up that huge drop in BABIP. Guys whose only skill is making contact tend to just fluctuate wildly in BABIP.

 

I think having him bat 8th should keep his OBP up near .330-.340 as he takes BB's in front of the pitcher. That doesn't really make him valuable but it probably does make him match or surpass what we got out of Estrada last year. But then again there is always the chance that he is just done too, C's do not age gracefully especially ones who logged a lot of innings.

[endaround]

Kendall can hit 8th. Estrada can't because you can't bunt Estrada over. That say a lot

[valpocrewsader]

No, Kendall isn't the worst catcher in baseball, just 3rd-worst in the NL according to Sporting News. Has this article been posted yet?: http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=349091. I'm actually sortof optimistic about Kendall being able to help us this year, but it's probably not wise to get too excited until he's proven he's better than the bottom-of-the-barrel status he's earned for himself recently. If this move works out well for Doug this season, he got lucky.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"But do his numbers at 33 count 100% toward forecasting 2008, while age 32 is totally forgotten and ignored?"

 

Again, TLB, here's what we typed, up the thread:

 

"See, they don't necessarily, though. To you, they do 100% (give or take). "

 

More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect."

 

________________

 

You can't blame me for extrapolating 2007 stats for an aging, overused catcher - the most physically demanding position in the game, and allowing them to influence what I expect from JK this year. And even then, I'd say I'd only weigh his 2007 numbers at around a 50-60% ratio...

[TooLiveBrew]

More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect."
...
You can't blame me for extrapolating 2007 stats for an aging, overused catcher - the most physically demanding position in the game, and allowing them to influence what I expect from JK this year. And even then, I'd say I'd only weigh his 2007 numbers at around a 50-60% ratio...

 

 

Alright, so if it's 50% 2007, shouldn't it be also 50% 2006? Or do you just choose to ignore 2006 entirely? If you don't choose to ignore it, I have no explanation/understanding for how you can be so doom & gloom.

[jjfanec]

Wow that Sporting News list shows how bad catching is in baseball right now. I don't think this board would have been happy with over half the people on that list

[DrWood]

just to clear something up... a catcher never has to throw more than 140, so why should he practice throwing farther?

[logan82]

Why do pitchers long throw? Same as catchers I would think, to strengthen the arm.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'll just be happy when Kendall and the pitcher are on the same page. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I directly blame Sheets' declining K-rate on the big E. Kendall, conversely, has a great reputation as a pitcher's catcher. And I don't think there is a pitcher in the NL who would rather have a DH behind the plate than a catcher.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Alright, so if it's 50% 2007, shouldn't it be also 50% 2006? Or do you just choose to ignore 2006 entirely? If you don't choose to ignore it, I have no explanation/understanding for how you can be so doom & gloom. "

 

I don't know exactly how much weight I give each subsequent year when evaluating a player, but if I'm assigning 55% to last year, then it's probably 25%? 20%? to the year before that, and then another 10%, and so on...

 

Again, because he's an overused catcher over 30, it's not like his chances for rebounding from such a bad season are going to increase as he reached AARP age. I just see an aging catcher who can't throw anyone out, who rarely hits for even doubles-power, and hasn't been given much rest, and I'd rather have sacrificed that #8 slot in the batting order to a younger, cannon-armed, defense-first guy behind the plate. I just can't share your optimism about the old fella. That's all.

[logan82]

GenoSeligPrieb wrote:

I'd rather have sacrificed that #8 slot in the batting order to a younger, cannon-armed, defense-first guy behind the plate.

I think most people would like that young cannon arm catcher and that is part of the problem. Where is a guy like that available and what do you have to give up to get him?

[TooLiveBrew]

I just see an aging catcher who can't throw anyone out, who rarely hits for even doubles-power, and hasn't been given much rest, and I'd rather have sacrificed that #8 slot in the batting order to a younger, cannon-armed, defense-first guy behind the plate. I just can't share your optimism about the old fella. That's all.

 

I hardly call "optimism" guesstimating a .335-.340 OBP from a guy who's routinely done far better than that. Frankly, a .335 OBP for Jason would be a large drop-off in production... it's just that coming from Estrada, it happens to be a big upgrade for the Crew.

[erbacaine04]

Guys I dont know if this has been said or not..... but Kendall had Lasik eye surgery in November and has told people that it makes a Huge difference...... maybe thats why his batting average dropped from .290 to .240 from 2006 to 2007...... or the fact that his 30% throwing out rate dropped to 15% from 2006 to 2007....its tough to throw people out when your aim is off.....

[Ennder]

He had to have worn glasses or contacts last year though right? It isn't like he was playing with bad vision and no correction and suddenly had lasik. At least I'd hope that isn't the case.

[erbacaine04]

He had to have worn glasses or contacts last year though right? It isn't like he was playing with bad vision and no correction and suddenly had lasik. At least I'd hope that isn't the case.

 

I dont think he wore glasses at least i dont remember seeing him wear glasses when I watched Cubs games.... and maybe it was more of a distance thing like he could see the 2nd basemen but it was blurry so his throw was off target a little......

 

But the fact is People dont drop their production in basically Half from one year to the other..... and he as a .202 hitter in Oakland.....So I am looking for a .270/ .345-.350 type year from him..... I will be pleased with that OBP...especially after Johnny "Never Walk" Estrada

[logan82]

I think he said he wore contacts before the surgery.

[DSFastball55]

I'm sure he must have worn contacts previously. I play fastpitch softball and got contacts for only that. I don't need them for anything else and I played for years without them, but the difference for me after getting them is huge when hitting even though I barely notice a difference while doing other things. If it's true that his vision is improved, he could very well be in for a good hitting year.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I think most people would like that young cannon arm catcher and that is part of the problem. Where is a guy like that available and what do you have to give up to get him?"

 

I never said he had to hit! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Brian Schneider was apparently available. Gerald Laird's name was bandied about, although he did't get moved. And I still harbor a man-crush on Arizona's Chris Snyder.

 

Are these guys awesome players who'd cost us a Yo Gallardo? Nah. Stetter and maybe a Gamel for a catcher under 30 who's a defense-first type?

 

Others like Jose Molina, Chris Coste, you can get for a Zach Jackson...

[TooLiveBrew]

And I still harbor a man-crush on Arizona's Chris Snyder.

 

Snyder posted a .252/.342/.433/.775 line in 2007 - I think you're underestimating how much it'd cost to snag him. He had a spectacular season at C (obviously due in large part to his strong D, too).

 

My guess is that the DBacks very much would have asked for someone we wouldn't want to let go (Villanueva, Parra, etc.) as a starting point in exchange for arguably the best C in the NL in 2007.

[erbacaine04]

To me if you wanted just defense then Miguel Olivo or that dude from Colorado....I forget his name at the moment..... both did very well defensively behind the plate.... but I think Kendall got brought in because of his 2nd half in the NL.....270Ba/ .350OBP.....and because he is great at working WITH the pitchers.......

[TerraceReserved]

Actually, with the Cubs last year he had a .362 OBP, and from August on a .372 OBP. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect a .350ish OBP next year.

[homer]

Guys I dont know if this has been said or not..... but Kendall had Lasik eye surgery in November and has told people that it makes a Huge difference...... maybe thats why his batting average dropped from .290 to .240 from 2006 to 2007...... or the fact that his 30% throwing out rate dropped to 15% from 2006 to 2007....its tough to throw people out when your aim is off.....

 

I don't think it would have much to do with his throwing. It's not like he was seeing double or anything. My eyesight is far from perfect and I never had a problem throwing guys out as a catcher - now hitting a curve ball......that's another story.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"My guess is that the DBacks very much would have asked for someone we wouldn't want to let go (Villanueva, Parra, etc.) as a starting point in exchange for arguably the best C in the NL in 2007."

 

I wanted him to be our catcher instead of Moeller back in the Sexson deal. I didn't expect to GET him!

 

But if he were offered, which he wasn't of course, for such a great offensive catcher as Jason Kendall, plus Parra AND Villanueva, I'd have to get a Micah Owings back, but I'd do it. Without Owings, substitute Zach Jack and Stetter?

 

Still, my point was that I still want a D-first catcher. And by the way, Miguel Olivo would have been OK. The Royals will use him to back up Buck, but just for his arm, and a decent slugging %, this is the kind of guy I wish Doug would have kicked the tires on this winter, instead of hurrying up and signing The Horse Whisperer. Olivo's no star, but he's 29, cheap and that glove alone makes him worth it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Olivo was horrendous behind the plate last year, with 16 PB! That was tied with Jose Molina (SF) for the worst in MLB, and a worse total than Piazza, Estrada, Javy Lopez, or Barrett (just for a few ex.) ever posted. Only Pierzynski & Posada came close in '07, with 14 & 13, respectively. Add in Olivo's career line of .239/.275/.405/.680 (2007: .237/.262/.405/.667), and I'm extremely glad Melvin did not make an effort to sign Miguel. That's right... a line with an even more extreme split between horrid OBP/decent SLG than Johnny Estrada's!

 

 

In other discussion, I came across some interesting info that may support the 'Kendall calls a good game' theory. For all of Oakland's SP from 2007 (but using career splits) with 15 or more starts, only one (the late Joe Kennedy) had an OPS over .705 with Kendall as their C. Blanton was the only one over .700 (.705). Fwiw, the Oakland SP from 2007: Blanton, Gaudin, Haren, DiNardo, Kennedy, Braden.

 

 

(I didn't include Dallas Braden in this 'study', as he'd faced only 72 total batters with Kendall behind the dish, so imo too small a sample.)