The Jason Kendall thread

[bill hAll Star]

His arm is downright bad at this point, but there really isn't much of a difference between his and Estrada's.

 

I liked Hardy's success in the 8 hole last year but if you think about it, I'd rather have Kendall back there working the count and clearing the order. Hardy would also fare much better seeing the great pitches a hitter sees with the fear of Braun/Fielder behind them. Kendall is going to claw his way on base no matter what which would be nice to have at the 2 in front of Braun/Fielder, but also is nice to have at the 8 spot. Hopefully with Hardy at the 2 he will see good pitches and keep a higher OBP and also hit with some more unexpected power.

[trwi7]

The silver lining to that is it will accelerate Yost's trip to the exit door, twirly :-D

So which RealGM member are you?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[bill hAll Star]

The silver lining to that is it will accelerate Yost's trip to the exit door, twirly :-D

So which RealGM member are you?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

I'll give you 5 guesses. I obviously post on the Brewers realgm board so that narrows it down quite a bit.

 

[Tbadder]

I think all the proof we need about Johnny Estrada is: A) look who he was traded for, B) look how many teams he's been on, and C) look how much he signed for.

 

A good catcher is just about the hardest thing to come by nowadays. Heck, a mediocre catcher is all but rare. Why can't he stay put? Well, I have one answer I can only ask you to believe, it's an old line, but I assure you it's true. Here it goes: I have a relative in the Brewer organization, he's got 30 years in, and he's high up. He's says Johnny is a total downer. He's great with certain individuals, but can't keep his mouth shut when it comes to the team. Evidently, on a couple of occasions down the stretch Estrada made the comment that he didn't think the Brewers could win a series. This doomed him in management's eyes and he was gone ever since.

 

Take it for what it's worth.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Kendall upgrades OBP at a position that desperately needed an OBP upgrade and can't possibly be worse than Estrada both behind the plate and behind the bases. By nature of his OBP and speed, Kendall is worth quite a number of extra bases this year."

 

Not to single you out, Toby, but for a guy who's supposed to provide such a lift from an on-base-percentage standpoint, Kendall's OBP last year was .301. And as for speed, he stopped being speedy years ago. Reaching back over the last 5 years (I can't go back much further than that to compare to the 33...soon 34-year-old we have now), Kendall was successful at stealing only 41 of 68 times, for a poor 60.3% success rate.

 

He has no power, he's another right-handed hitter, he can't throw out basestealers, and he's not cheap. Jason may be a better clubhouse presence for all we know, but as for his on-the-field production? Bad.

 

As I mentioned before, if we're going to have a big slugging lineup, THIS is the seaosn we can afford a defense-first, bazooka-armed catcher in there, who'll bat 8th anyway. Even if Kendall scales the heights of a .333 OBP, he still can't hit, so we may as well have acquired a better arm and glove back there.

[trwi7]

Not to single you out, Toby, but for a guy who's supposed to provide such a lift from an on-base-percentage standpoint, Kendall's OBP last year was .301. And as for speed, he stopped being speedy years ago. Reaching back over the last 5 years (I can't go back much further than that to compare to the 33...soon 34-year-old we have now), Kendall was successful at stealing only 41 of 68 times, for a poor 60.3% success rate.

Yeah it was .301 but Estrada's was .296. The difference is Kendall hit .242 while Estrada hit .278 so Kendall works the count much more than Estrada. As for the speed debate you have to look at who he's replacing and Estrada makes Kendall look like Rickey Henderson.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

.296? .301? Meh. Not the major upgrade that so many here think.

 

And I'll grant you, trwi, that the gap between Kendall's BA and OBP suggests that he apparently does work the count better. However, given their huge 94-point gap in slugging, it can be said that Estrada got more hits, and the odds were better that they could be of the extra-base variety. But since Estrada couldn't run, he must have pounded the bejeezus out of those 25 doubles he got, since he was able to coast into 2nd base all those times. Hell, he probably hit what would have been bases-clearing triples for other guys, driving in more runs, than Kendall, who in 43 more plate appearances, only hit 20 doubles and 1 triple. And I'm not even touching upon the home run disparity.

 

Estrada's offense and defense were unacceptable in '07, and Kendall looks to do the same in '08....only for double the salary, and from the right batter's box.

 

"As for the speed debate you have to look at who he's replacing and Estrada makes Kendall look like Rickey Henderson.'

 

I love hyperbole, too, but RICKEY Henederson? Kendall stole successfully 3 of 7 times last year. DAVE or KEN Henderson, maybe!

[danzig6767]

So again, Estrada wasn't even good, but I have to say a LOT of the vitriol targeted at Estrada...and the lovefest for Kendall...is based on so many perceptions fans have of them.

Is there really a lovefest for Kendall? Or are people just glad that Estrada won't be here? I wasn't too happy when they signed Kendall, but I am ok with it just because it meant Estrada is gone.

 

That sums it up for me, just watching Estrada play got on my nerves more than any regular player for the Brewers in awhile. Those first pitch hacking with men on base and then Estrada being half way down the first base line on yet another DP made me at times want to strangle the guy.

The fact Kendall makes an extra few million more than Estrada would doesn't bug me given i don't see where that cost us another player we may have wanted. Neither guy is much of a player, but that's the catching situation in baseball for most teams who didn't draft and develop a decent catcher.

So long as Nedly doesn't do one of his brainfarts and bat Kendall second, i can live with his signing.

 

[snyttri]

Is it really that hard to find a defensive catcher when you disregard offense? Kendall has a reasonable chance of being a disappointment both ways (the ravages of age resulting in his Oakland 2007 OBP combined with his usual arm). I don't think defensive performance fluctuates as much as offense. Catching defense will probably be more important than the number of pitches the catcher takes. It will be nice to see Kendall try to wear out pitchers but that entertainment value will probably be outweighed by seeing the opposition steal at will.

[MJLiverock]

If Estrada averaged 3 pitches/plate appearance and Kendall is at 4 does it really make much of a difference? That is only 3-4 pitches per game and may be spread over 2 or more pitchers. I get the idea of wearing a guy out but is this one extra pitch really going to matter, especially if Kendall has absolutely no power and is in front of the pitcher. Nobody ever seems to mention what a benefit having the pitcher bat and just stand there taking pitches is for the lineup. Yet having a catcher who hits marginally better than pitcher do it is supposed boon to the offense?

 

I also found an old ESPN article from 2005 talking about Kendall's patience and how he takes more strikes than just about anyone since watches about 65% of the pitches thrown. Pitchers don't really have to worry about gettiing hurt by his bat so why not groove him? He will probably just watch it anyway. Not surprisingly, when his behind 0-2 or 1-2 his career OPS is sub .600 and last year was sub .500. It seems Kendall's best attribute is the ability to stand in the box with his bat on his shoulder and pray for the walk. He may force an extra 2-3 pitches on average from a pitcher during the game vs. Estrada but I don't see that as a big contribution. As has been mentioned, if the Brewers just wanted a bat stand for the eight hole a defensive guy may have been a much better option. Maybe they couldn't get it done however or there is always the hope of trading a pitcher for a guy during spring training.

 

FWIW; Kendall allowed 12 passed balls in 1146 innings and Estrada allowed 5 in 961. Could be a reflection of pitchers willing to throw in dirt with Kendall versus nobody trusting Estrada to block it, but still it is a reflection of a guy who may not move as well as he used to.

[TooLiveBrew]

You'd find that most guys stink with the count 0-2 (or even 0-1). If Kendall can hit around .260 or so, his OBP will be a huge upgrade over Estrada.

[MJLiverock]

I wasn't surprised he hit poor when behind 0-2 or 1-2 as you stated almost everyone hits worse in that situation. So is it really a good idea for Kendall to dig himself a hole like that when he isn't much of a threat to begin with? Of course that is his style so I wouldn't expect him to change it but it really doesn't produce much more than Estrada's style of swinging at strikes. The added pitches only abount to 1-3 per game for a pitcher.

 

If Kendall rebounds to a .260 BA and a .320 OPB that is only 10 more walks/hits versus a .300 OBP over a 500 AB season. I guess I agree with Geno that Kendall isn't really much of an upgrade if at all over Estrada despite the near lovefest Kendall receives here.

His defense isn't really any better, his great plate discipline only means 1-3 extra pitches per game, he is just as likely as not to hit for a worse average and have more walks but end up with the same OBP as Estrada.

 

Maybe his extra salary is worth a better attitude and or better game calling, the team probably thinks so and that has to count for something positive. I just don't expect him to provide much more than Estrada in the hitting or defense departments.

[DSFastball55]

Sorry guys, I haven't been a fan of Kendall for at least 6 or 7 years I doubt I'll start now. What little you gain in OBP, you lose in SLG. Defensively, Kendall is at least as bad as Estrada. I agree with whoever said we should have just got a defensive stud since Kendall won't be much better offensively than a Henry Blanco-type catcher, at least per dollar.

[TooLiveBrew]

His time in Oak. in 2007 saw BB/SO numbers so out of whack with his career norms, that you almost have to throw them away out of principle. I fully expect Kendall to be around a .335 OBP with defense as bad as Estrada's at worst. Basically, any hitting of his upside by Kendall will mean our improvement at C is monstrous rather than the 'marginal' where it stands from a pessimistic outlook on 2008. And by the way, there's no reason to not be pessimistic regarding Kendall. I just think many here are over-stating it, and basing said over-statement largely on wonky Oak. 2007 numbers.

[logan82]

MJLiverock wrote:

I guess I agree with Geno that Kendall isn't really much of an upgrade if at all over Estrada despite the near lovefest Kendall receives here.

Where is this supposed lovefest that everybody keeps refering to? All I have seen is people saying that Kendall should gives us a little better OBP at worst with about the same defense while stating he has a reputation as a better handler of pitchers. Now if you are talking about an Estrada hatefest I would agree. I think almost everybody is glad to see Estrada gone. I haven't seen to many people very excited about Kendall being brought in though. I personally see it as mostly a lateral move with maybe a bettter attitude.

[And That]

"Kendall upgrades OBP at a position that desperately needed an OBP upgrade and can't possibly be worse than Estrada both behind the plate and behind the bases. By nature of his OBP and speed, Kendall is worth quite a number of extra bases this year."

 

Not to single you out, Toby, but for a guy who's supposed to provide such a lift from an on-base-percentage standpoint, Kendall's OBP last year was .301. And as for speed, he stopped being speedy years ago. Reaching back over the last 5 years (I can't go back much further than that to compare to the 33...soon 34-year-old we have now), Kendall was successful at stealing only 41 of 68 times, for a poor 60.3% success rate.

Estrada's OBP over the previous 3-year period: .309

Kendall's OBP over the previous 3-year period: .340

 

Granted, Kendall sucked last year (tho, still not as badly as Carne). And the fact remains he may be in rapid decline. But given his body type, age and previous success at the plate, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that last year was merely an off year. He's no world beater at the plate. Given that, it wouldn't shock me to see him put up an OBP 30-40 points higher than Estrada this year. At least you know he's capable of it.

 

And do you really want to argue anyone's speed vs. Estrada? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[GenoSeligPrieb]

OK, TLB, my kids are upstairs watching the "Transformers" movie, leaving me with little better to do than butt in! So, I'll bite:

 

"His time in Oak. in 2007 saw BB/SO numbers so out of whack with his career norms, that you almost have to throw them away out of principle. I fully expect Kendall to be around a .335 OBP with defense as bad as Estrada's at worst. Basically, any hitting of his upside by Kendall will mean our improvement at C is monstrous"

 

You CAN'T just dismiss and throw away Kendall's 2007 performance in Oakland. If it was 1997, then yeah. But less than a year ago, for the A's, he played the same position, he was healthy, and he was still used the same way. The 2007 numbers for JK tell us what we could plausibly expect from him in '08.

 

And if you want to dismiss some 2007 stats for a Brewer catcher, make it Estrada.

 

JE's running speed was atrocious. And he couldn't throw any basestealers out.

 

But after the season, Estrada had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and had a bone spur removed from his right (throwing) elbow. Don't you think those 2 surgical areas were causing him to a) run much slower, and b) not be able to throw as well as he he used to?

 

He may have been a grouch, and Kendall's our resident Horse Whisperer. But according to an article in the Nationals' team website, Estrada's is upbeat, his knee is back to normal, and his elbow is healing:

 

"He said Tuesday that the knee is 100 percent and that he is throwing 140 feet in a throwing program.

 

"I'm getting stronger every day I throw. I feel great. I put something on it," Estrada said. "There's no doubt that I'll be ready for Spring Training."

 

He may not recover fully. And Estrada may or may not be a jerk, for all we know.

 

But Kendall was healthy, and played just as poorly. What was his excuse?

[TooLiveBrew]

What else is a homer article going to do? Point out the shortcomings he hasn't overcome? Of course they're going to point to the things he's doing positively. Throwing 140 feet for an MLB catcher? Not something to get excited about imo.

You CAN'T just dismiss and throw away Kendall's 2007 performance in Oakland.

 

Ok, that's true. However, when attempting to postulate his future success, you certainly can treat it as an extreme case to be taken with a large grain of salt. Now, if he'd stunk to high hell, and his BB/SO numbers lined up with career norms, then I'd be trumpeting just as loudly about Kendall. However, since they weren't, I tend to view them as affected by something aside from 'suckage.' Maybe he was dinged up, maybe he had to re-adjust some swing mechanics... who knows?

 

I just don't think it's anything but reasonable to expect (at worst) a .330 OBP from Kendall next year. Given the crap we had in 2007, that's a very significant upgrade.

 

EDIT: The 2007 numbers for JK tell us what we could plausibly expect from him in '08.

 

See, they don't necessarily, though. To you, they do 100% (give or take). To me, I see them as so out of whack, they make me want to look deeper. I'm not sitting here trying to tell you Kendall's going to play like his 28-y-o self again, just that his improvement in OBP is going to be very impactful for this offense.

[danzig6767]

He may not recover fully. And Estrada may or may not be a jerk, for all we know.

 

But Kendall was healthy, and played just as poorly. What was his excuse?

Geno, i don't fully get what your really trying to get at. Are you saying that you'd prefer the Brewers had brought back Estrada instead of signing Kendall?

I certainly don't think most here are thrilled to no end that we have Jason Kendall as our catcher this season. I think for myself and most here, we wish the Brewers had a better option than both of these guys, but of the two, just would rather have Kendall a bit more. I know that Kendall was crap last season and i'm not expecting much from him this year, i just didn't want to see Estrada back .

I also understand that often the scrubby catchers get that he calls a good game label to justify having such a no talent on the team, but it's not only the Brewers who didn't think highly of how Estrada worked with the pitchers/pitching coach. The same stuff came out of Arizona that they weren't fond of it either, so that leads me to believe there very well could be something to it.

When comparing these two catchers, i view them as basically rusted cars that don't run very well and i'd prefer not to have either one, but i'd simply rather drive the Kendall hunk of junk a little more than the Estrada one. I'm under no illusion that that if maybe the Kendall heap is given a tune up, he'll suddenly start making me think i'm driving a Lexus.

Both would be a stop gap until hopefully the Brewers can develop a decent catcher on their own because there is pretty much no other way to get one.

 

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I just don't think it's anything but reasonable to expect (at worst) a .330 OBP from Kendall next year. Given the crap we had in 2007, that's a very significant upgrade.

 

EDIT: The 2007 numbers for JK tell us what we could plausibly expect from him in '08.

 

See, they don't necessarily, though. To you, they do 100% (give or take). "

 

More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect." And again, numbers from 2007...recent stats for such an old codger, are more likely to be reflective of where his career is these days, than back when he used to hit when he was younger.

 

You expect JK to rebound, even though there was no tangible injury excuse, or sudden league switch, or divorce, or other personal issues. And that's fine. But I'm saying it's Estrada, who's younger, and sustained 2 procedures to clean up problems in the EXACT areas (running and throwing) that we were all griping so much about. Out of the 2, they'll both probably underperform in 2008, but the bounce-back factor looks like it could favor Estarda better than Kendall, since JE at least WAS injured.

 

My meaningless predictions for the 2, this season?:

 

JK - .257-2-45 in 550 PAs starting a LOT with no dependable backup, stealing 2 of 4, with an OBP of .320-.325, and an OPS like the mark of the beast, .666. Double-digit passed balls, again, and the Caught Stealing rate? In Oakland, he threw out 20.2% which was bad, but for the Cubs, he threw out only 5 of 57 (8.8%), so I'll charitably spot him maybe 15%.

 

JE - .266-7-35 in 325 PAs backing up LoDuca, stealing 0 of 0 (he won't even try, repaired knees or no!). OBP: .310, and an OPS of .720. Because he won't play as often, 3 PBs, and the CS rate will improve with the elbow healing, from his Brewers 13.2%, to a still-crappy 18%.

 

I still wish DM could have acquired an ex-Ranger (what a novel concept!) like a Gerald Laird, or he could have gone back to the Diamondbacks again, and picked up a Chris Snyder, who at least can throw out baserunners, while playing decent D, batting 8th. Oh well...

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Geno, i don't fully get what your really trying to get at. Are you saying that you'd prefer the Brewers had brought back Estrada instead of signing Kendall?"

 

I'm not sure, Danzig.

 

When I hear that he was injured in the exact areas where he was killing us last season, it made me think he was fixable, and he could bounce back a bit. With him, I'm uncertain about making a definitive asssessment, because of the injuries.

 

But Kendall? He just got...bad...most likely from overuse...and he's probably wearing down.

 

But apparently, Johnny was bad for the team to have around (but if you're the manager, you get a contract extension! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ), so if that's true, then fine, he can go, if he was causing that much dissension. So be it.

 

I just feel Doug jumped REAL quickly at securing Kendall, when he could have looked around a bit. And getting Mota and his full contract in exchange? Also bad.

[TooLiveBrew]

More like 50-60%. I did type "plausibly expect." And again, numbers from 2007...recent stats for such an old codger, are more likely to be reflective of where his career is these days, than back when he used to hit when he was younger.

You expect JK to rebound, even though there was no tangible injury excuse, or sudden league switch, or divorce, or other personal issues. And that's fine. But I'm saying it's Estrada, who's younger, and sustained 2 procedures to clean up problems in the EXACT areas (running and throwing) that we were all griping so much about. Out of the 2, they'll both probably underperform in 2008, but the bounce-back factor looks like it could favor Estarda better than Kendall, since JE at least WAS injured.

 

Is there an excuse? No. But do his numbers at 33 count 100% toward forecasting 2008, while age 32 is totally forgotten and ignored?

 

2007: .242/.301/.309, 31 BB/42 SO

2006: .295/.367/.342, 53 BB/54 SO

Car.: .297/.375/.394, 1.09 BB/K

 

2006 was a darn good line from a C. And my guess is nowhere near that.

 

To go one step further, which do you think is more likely next year from Jason - .226/.261/.281 or .270/.362/.356

 

(the first was his time from Oak., the second his time in Chicago)

[Ennder]

The first thing I'd want to do is 'luck' neutralize his stats. Kendall had a .261 BABIP last year which was the lowest of his career and well below his career total of .321. He has a career long history of heavy fluctuations in the stat so there is a decent reason to believe that last year was just a down BABIP year for him. If he plays just like last year but that normalizes to say .300 (still below his career rates) he is suddenly hitting .280ish with a .340ish OBP and a pathetic SLG.

 

There certainly is a reason to expect him to be closer to 2006 than 2007 this season. Now don't get me wrong, there are 33 (his age) reasons he won't turn it around so I could see him totally falling off the map and if he does his contract is setup such that he should be splitting time at best so 2009 doesn't vest.

[Fatter than Joey]

Are you saying that you'd prefer the Brewers had brought back Estrada instead of signing Kendall?

 

Keep in mind that we would have had to offer Estrada Arby's -- so we would have likely paid Estrada what Kendall is getting (or close). I'd probably rather have Estrada for one year for what WAS is paying him than what we have into Kendall -- but it wasn't an option.

 

And getting Mota and his full contract in exchange? Also bad.

 

Agreed

[lukevan]

Keep in mind that we would have had to offer Estrada Arby's

 

Also keep in mind how much more weight Estrada would've gained had we given him 3 beef & cheddars a day! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif