Bush can only go 5 innings

[logan82]

I saw it again, in one of the letter in the Brewers mailbag, and had to just throw it out there for everybody's opinion. Why is it commonly held that Bush was one of our worst starters as far as short starts? I will look into it a little later and get better numbers on it, unless somebody beats me to it, but I seem to remember last time I checked that he was one of our better guys at getting a decent amount of innings each start. This time he was brought up right along with Vargas as one of the guys who only went 5 innings per start.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why is it commonly held that Bush was one of our worst starters as far as short starts?

Because people take a few extreme instances and treat them as reality/fact?

[Diskono]

I'm not sure. It was really only last year that he had any trouble at all, too. It's not entirely the same as innings, but in 2006 and before he seemed to do better as his pitchcount went up. Pitches 1-15, otoh, were his worst.

[rluzinski]

People are generally just too quick to declare a weak/short trend as something to always expect. If something happens three times in a row, it might as well have been 100.

[Ennder]

They remember a few collapses at the start of the year and just assume it was always so. The funny thing is most of those collapses were directly related to Yost leaving him out there too long or bad defensive plays but when I pointed it out it apparently was because I had him on a fantasy baseball team or something (he wasn't on my main team last year and had him in all of 1 league that was a throwaway league).

[brewtank34]

I seem to recall that Bush was quite stellar, or even kept us in the game until at least the 7th. Yost would keep him in thinking that he'd get us to the 8th, but before that happened, Bush would give up a 1 to 3 run HR in the 7th....either taking us out of a game or letting the other team make it a game in which we'd have to rely on TBow/Coco not freakin out on us. It was like he had a curse with the 7th inning.....very creepy.

[GAME05]

i thought Bush has the biggest room for improvement going into this season. to me it seemed like in some of his starts he'd have a major hickup but had pitched pretty well up until then, but a lot of games he'd be brilliant throughout and really keep us in the game. say he cuts those major gaffs by 1/3 this season and you've got a 15-game winner no problem.

[Gopher74]

They remember a few collapses at the start of the year and just assume it was always so. The funny thing is most of those collapses were directly related to Yost leaving him out there too long or bad defensive plays but when I pointed it out it apparently was because I had him on a fantasy baseball team or something (he wasn't on my main team last year and had him in all of 1 league that was a throwaway league).

You know Ender, just because you pick a guy on a fantasy team doesn't mean you have to defend him to death. Just admit you've got a special spot for Bush....c'mon, we all do. Just admit it!

 

Yea, I recall that conversation. I'll say this, I don't share the conviction that you do when it comes to defensive metrics, nor am I as staunch a sabr guy as you, and I think that some on here put too much stock in it(they'd say I don't put enough, but rest assured, I do think they're very important, I just think that there are times where they can liel to you), but I can say without any doubt that whatever you say, you say it with absolute objectivity....which is why that argument was a bit humerous.

 

Anyway, as for Bush, I was a HUGE Bush fan last year. I truly thought he was going to step up and be a viable number 2 last year. I thought that his peripheral's would preceede a big breakout season for Bush. Something to the tune of 3.35-3.55 with 15-17 wins and a 1.10 Whip. I saw he and Sheets being a very formidable 1-2 punch with Cappy, Suppan and Vargas rounding out the rotation until Gallardo came up. Of course, none of this occured, but it seems that so often a guy shows signs of having that breakout season, then the following season he regresses, and people lose faith in him to a degree, and then finally they break out, so hopefully this season, we'll see that good middle of the rotation type starter that we've all hoped he'd be.

 

The only problem is, does he even get that chance? Do the Brewers go with Cappy and Bush over Villy?

 

I guess a best case scenario would be to go with Sheets/Gallardo/Suppan/Bush/Cappy and then keep Villy in the pen, and either go with a 13 man staff to start the season out, or deal Vargas for whatever you can get. Hope that Villy can have the same success the first half of this season that he had the first half last season, and hope that Bush or Cappy start out and have a great first half. If Cappy could have the type of 1st half he had in 06, 10-4 with an ERA of ~3.20 you could really get a GREAT haul in return for him to a team that thinks they may be in a race. Maybe a team like the Dodgers if they lose a starter again, a guy like Penny who took a beating last year, Schmidt who's a huge question mark, or if anyone really goes down and you can somehow put together a package and pry Broxton away from them. Or just whoever. There are so many ways this could play out, and all of them good if Cappy has a good 1st half.

[logan82]

I think it would be interesting to see where everybody would rank our starters going from who is the most likley to go 6+ innings to who is least likley. I would rank our starters Sheets, Gallardo Bush, Villanueva, Suppan, Cappy, Vargas in that order for last year. That's before looking at their starts. I did look about halfway through the year though, so I have a little idea. Of course things could have changed quite a bit.

 

It would be interesting to have a perception vs reality poll/questionare every month on stuff like this. Similar to Russ' relative value of HR,3B, ect. thread. How did that turn out by the way?

[TooLiveBrew]

Anyway, as for Bush, I was a HUGE Bush fan last year. I truly thought he was going to step up and be a viable number 2 last year. I thought that his peripheral's would preceede a big breakout season for Bush. Something to the tune of 3.35-3.55 with 15-17 wins and a 1.10 Whip. I saw he and Sheets being a very formidable 1-2 punch with Cappy, Suppan and Vargas rounding out the rotation until Gallardo came up.

 

That's so funny... I can say I felt the same way, down to the last detail there. I think Bush should get a shot at SP, but not before Sheets, YoGa, or Villy. Between Soup, Bush, & Cappy, that's three #3-4 SP imho. I'm really hoping Cap is the one to go to the 'pen, & Vargas is the one sent outta town.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm a bit big on Bush too. I remember reading the "Bush League" article about his affinity for owning the inside. I still think he's going to be the best back-end starter next year. As for who is most likely to go 6+, I would peg Cappy and Bush right with Yo/Sheets. Cappy tied Oswalt two years ago for the league lead in quality starts and one requisite is six innings, while Bush led our team two years ago in shutouts.

[Ennder]

Bush should be better than he is but he has shown a career long problem with runners on base at this point which would seem to indicate he has problems pitching from the stretch. If he can ever get himself to league average in LOB% he'll have a good year and even with a bad LOB% he has had decent results.

 

I however think Capuano should be the #5. The first half of 2006 and before he got hurt in 2007 showed some upside to Capuano that he could turn into a good pitcher instead of a just decent one if he can just keep the BB's down.

[crewcuts]

Anyway, as for Bush, I was a HUGE Bush fan last year. I truly thought he was going to step up and be a viable number 2 last year. I thought that his peripheral's would preceede a big breakout season for Bush. Something to the tune of 3.35-3.55 with 15-17 wins and a 1.10 Whip. I saw he and Sheets being a very formidable 1-2 punch with Cappy, Suppan and Vargas rounding out the rotation until Gallardo came up.

 

That's so funny... I can say I felt the same way, down to the last detail there. I think Bush should get a shot at SP, but not before Sheets, YoGa, or Villy. Between Soup, Bush, & Cappy, that's three #3-4 SP imho. I'm really hoping Cap is the one to go to the 'pen, & Vargas is the one sent outta town.

Another "ditto" concerning the take on Bush..He's had good metrics and looks great at times. Granted, last season he wasn't as effective and was misused a little by Yost, but I think he's got the talent to be #3 or #4 on this staff if he can keep the HR's down. At this point, it looks like Sheets, Gallardo and Suppan (if only because of Soups contract) at the top 3. Bush and Cappy or Villy would be formidable if Cappy returns to form..Villy may be of more use in the bullpen although he's got the stuff to start. I've been a little surprised how many jumped off the Bush train last season..I think he will be good in 08. Then again, Cameron and Kendall along with Braun in LF instead of 3b should help the whole staff..

Vargas should be part of any trade package. He could be #4 or #5 for the Nationals or a rebuilding team, but I don't think he belongs on a contender.

 

[lukevan]

I think Bush could be valuable in a bullpen role if he a) starts innings in his appearances, and b) isn't left in the game if he lets 2 guys on [insert Yost crack here]. At least Yost will have some more arms to relieve Bush in that situation in 2008. Bush is a great option to spot start also. If Cappy struggles out of the gate, Bush is a great plan B.

 

Bush has always had good peripherals but I agree about him struggling pitching from the stretch. Bush smacks of a guy who has good electric stuff but hasn't been a pitcher as long as other pitchers his age.

[joepepsi]

I can't believe other teams aren't offering real value in a trade for Bush.

[Big Reed]

last year I was about to make a similar post about the brewers starters never pitching past the 6th inning and how they got yanked before they even had a chance to throw 100 pitches in a game. but after doing some research in some box scores, I noticed that brewers starters including Bush, Suppan, Vargus, Gallardo and Cap did sometimes pitch into the 7th and 8th innings. Albeit it wasn't that often, but it did happen.

 

the question that should be asked is how did the brewers starters compare with starters from other teams. We all know how our own starting pitchers faired last year. We all thought Yost had a fast hook and yanked his starters out too early and they could have given us another inning or two. But I have a feeling that la Russa yanked his starters probably faster than Yost did last year. I have a feeling that Braves, Rockies, Phillies, mets, and Dbacks pitchers all probably didn't pitch much past the 6 inning either. And rather than looking at their ace or #2 pitcher, a more realistic view could be gained at looking at their #3-5 starters. Without doing any lengthy research on the subject, I would imagine that the brewers' #4 and # 5 starters were probably two of the best in the NL last year.

 

The brewers' starting pitching problems were not with guys like Bush or Vargus. What the brewers lacked last year was a truly dominating ace and #2 pitcher. I don't expect guys like Bush or Vargus or Suppan to pitch complete games or shut -outs. I do, however , expect Sheets and Gallardo to be able to go 7- 9 innings on a consistant basis with a few complete games and shut-outs thrown in the mix.

 

from a fantasy standpoint, I noticed throughout baseball last year, there were very few complete games or shut outs thrown and quality starts were also down. Even guys like Livan Hernandez had fewer innings and comeplete games. My fantasy advice is don't draft starting pitchers in the early rounds; and draft quality closers before quality starters.

[Tbadder]

I like Bush. I like him as 3rd best starter (tied with Villy) behind Gallardo and Sheets. His one inning hiccups have been well docuemented, and I fear we'll have to put up with that. As a #5 starter I'm perfectly willing to accept that.

 

But I don't think Bush is entrenched in the Brewers' thinking like Suppan or Capuano, and that's a real disservice I believe. Of the fence-sitters (Cappy, Vargas, Bush) I think he has the most talent and easily the best make-up. Each has a significant problem: Bush doesn't handle that inevitable one-inning (I like Ennder's explanation here), Vargas just plays brinkmanship constantly (although he seems to thrive more often than not in these situations), and Cappy is just plain Crappy now, psychologically busted, (what happened to the 88 to 91 fastball; it seems like 84 to 87 now?).

 

I'll say this, Capuano is the most important Brewer in spring training this year. If he can regain his form (which I obviously think is a pipe dream) the Brewers could be very much better than last year.

 

And maybe that's Bush's problem. A manager knows what he's gonna get, mister steady. A manager can move him around, the bullpen seems plausible, some might even project him as a better set-up man than starter. But the other two guys are so uncertain, that in Cappy case, you wanna give him a chance to regain his form, which I believe will ultimately cost the Brewers games they'll have to overcome as they duke it out with the Cubbies.

 

I think Bush is the Brewers Hugh Beaumont, and Cappy is the Brewer's Patsy Cline.

[bjkrautk]

Looking at his game log, he delivered a quality start less than half the time (15 out of 31, by my count). That's not exactly great for a starter.

 

I think that quality starts are somewhat telling for Bush; in his non-quality starts, the team went 3-13.

All ten of Bush's wins as a starting pitcher came in quality starts (against 2 losses, both of which were shutouts by the other starter; his other 2 wins came in relief).

 

Other notables: he went 5-3 when throwing more than 100+ pitches. I think that's also telling with Dave Bush. For him to get into triple-digit pitch counts, he needs to not burn himself out with high-pitch innings early-on. To some extent, it's a measure of his ability to avoid the "big inning" that really plagued him last year.

 

As a groundball pitcher, it will be interesting to see whether the improved defense will help lower his numbers as well (his BA against jumped to .290 last season, .021 higher than his worst season to-date, and a .038 jump over 2006). He seems a decent candidate for a bounceback year, provided he can keep his spot in the rotation (which isn't a given).

[rluzinski]

I think that's also telling with Dave Bush. For him to get into triple-digit pitch counts, he needs to not burn himself out with high-pitch innings early-on. To some extent, it's a measure of his ability to avoid the "big inning" that really plagued him last year.

 

Did he really have more "big innings" than a 5.10 ERA pitcher would be expected to? It would be interesting to see his distribution of runs scored/inning, compared to league average.

 

I was very excited when Melvin aquired Bush but his last two years have tempered some of my optimism for him. Of course, if he's even a true 4.5 ERA pitcher, he still has a ton of value.

[bjkrautk]

Did he really have more "big innings" than a 5.10 ERA pitcher would be expected to? It would be interesting to see his distribution of runs scored/inning, compared to league average.

 

I was very excited when Melvin aquired Bush but his last two years have tempered some of my optimism for him. Of course, if he's even a true 4.5 ERA pitcher, he still has a ton of value.

I think you mean variance or deviation on runs / inning. Wouldn't the distribution (average) of runs / inning run parallel to ERA?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=7371&type=pitching3&three=1

 

Dave Bush is at his worst in the first inning of a game. Here's the OPS against breakdown by # of pitches thrown:

 

1-15: .952

16-30: .805

31-45: .690

46-60: .711

61-75: .682

76-90: .724

91-105: .811

106-120: 1.077

 

It's almost parabolic: he struggles early, then settles in, and starts to fall off around 90 pitches. That he gets less effective later on in games isn't all that surprising, but I don't think that his first inning / first 15 pitches numbers are typical around the majors. (His ERA in 2007 over pitches 1-15 was nearly twice the team average, FWIW.) I don't know if he gets hit around more than most 5+ ERA pitchers, but I have to believe that he was worse in those early innings than most of them have been.

 

(Ironically, the only player on the 2007 Brewers worse in the first 15 pitches and innings 1-3 than Dave Bush was Claudio Vargas.)

[DrWood]

I think bush did have more big innings than you would expect by random. I seem to recall that fairly late in the season he was leading the team in zero-run innings.

[logan82]

Player Starts 6+ innings 7+ innings

Suppan 34 64.7% 20.6%

Bush 31 71% 22.6%

Capuano 25 40% 20%

Sheets 24 75% 25%

Vargas 23 47.8% 8.7%

Gallardo 17 70.6% 29.4%

Villanueva 6 66.7% 16.7%

Parra 2 50% 0%

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKN8HdBGjC9KoeBvx_jbJEQ

 

 

EDIT: I don't know how to make it look pretty so I included a link. If somebody knows how to make it look right let me know so in the future I don't have this problem.

[Ennder]

keep in mind that the defense is part of what controls how deep into a game a pitcher gets as well. When you are having a lot of 4 out innings it is reducing the number of innings you actually do pitch. I'm going to guess that most of the problems came the 3rd time through the order and having to face 1 or 2 extra batters most games because of the defense makes that 3rd time happen earlier than it should have on average.

[logan82]

keep in mind that the defense is part of what controls how deep into a game a pitcher gets as well. When you are having a lot of 4 out innings it is reducing the number of innings you actually do pitch.

I completley agree. I will go back and do 2006 for all of our pitchers who had MLB starts in 2006. Right now it looks like some of our pitchers are better at pitching in front of a shoddy defense than others.

[rluzinski]

I think you mean variance or deviation on runs / inning. Wouldn't the distribution (average) of runs / inning run parallel to ERA?

 

What I meant was, how often he gives up x amount of runs per inning. A pitcher who gives up "big innings" more often than his ERA would suggest would give up a higher percentage of 3+ run innings than expected. Here's how NL teams distributed their run scoring per inning in 2007:

 

0 runs: 71.3%

1 run: 15.5%

2 runs: 7.1%

3 runs: 3.5%

4+ runs: 2.6%

 

The distribution is going to be slightly different for starting pitchers, I would presume.

 

It's almost parabolic: he struggles early, then settles in, and starts to fall off around 90 pitches. That he gets less effective later on in games isn't all that surprising, but I don't think that his first inning / first 15 pitches numbers are typical around the majors.

 

On average, teams score the most runs in the1st inning and the 6th inning (in that order). While Bush might struggle more than the average pitcher in the 1st inning (don't know for a fact but that OPS in the first is ugly), it's a tough inning for all starting pitchers.

 

Baseball reference lists a pitcher's stats for each inning:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=bushda01

 

It would be interesting to see what the NL average was for starting pitchers.