Draft bonus money requirements

[Big Reed]

I noticed there has been a lot of talk about all of the top level draft picks the brewers will have this year. 7 picks in the top 100. I also noticed the brewers did very well in signing their top 20 draft picks from last year and in the previous 2 years.. it's a given first and second round picks command large signing bonuses. it's also a given the brewers don't have unlimited funds. I noticed this hasn't been discussed very much, but could money be a factor in whom the brewers draft? This begs three questions:

 

1. How much can the brewers expect to pay out in total signing bonuses if they sign all of their draft picks this year?

 

2. Will the fact that the brewers have so many top picks have an effect on whom they draft with those picks? Will the brewers shy away from certain prospects who would command a high signing bonus because they only have a certain amount of money alloted to spend? or will they go after 1 or 2 expensive players and 5 players who do not command as much? I see a high probability that the brewers might go after a couple of lesser quality prospects knowing their bonus demands would be lower. 7 picks in the top 100 is a lot of money to set aside for signing bonuses. Would the brewers go after the 7 best players with those 7 picks? or go after the greatest number they can afford to sign?

 

3. What's the probability that the brewers will not sign all of their top 7 picks? or will this have any affect on the brewers not signing their round 3-10 picks?

 

At first, i thought acquiring rental free agent players and then allowing them to leave and acquiring draft picks for them was a great idea. However, if the brewers are not able to sign all of the players they draft, or if they are not able to financially draft the best players available for all those picks, then this strategy needs to be revisited. I would believe the brewers could afford to spend $10 million to sign all of their draft picks. but they might not want to invest that much money. I would hate to use first round supplemental picks to draft 4th and 5th round caliber players just because we couldn't afford to pay the signing bonus requirements for all of our top level picks. While I' m sure Melvin will publically say we have plenty of money to sign all of our picks, I have to believe this concern is going through his mind.

[colbyjack]

Actually, we have talked a little about the money, as it outlined in the draft resource thread and I brought it up in the feature Big Draft On Tap story that was on the homepage.

 

1. How much can the brewers expect to pay out in total signing bonuses if they sign all of their draft picks this year?

 

There are still four unsigned free agents that could effect draft compensation, meaning all of the picks after the first and first round supplemental selections could drop four places, so here are the picks as they stand right now and their respective, approximate slot values from the 2007 draft:

 

#16 (own first): $1.5 M

#32 (supp. pick for Cordero): $950 K

#35 (supp. pick for Linebrink): $800 K

#51 (comp pick for Cordero): $610 K

#52 (comp pick for Linebrink): $600 K

#60 (own second): $540 K

#92 (own third): $375 K

 

That's $5.375 million for their seven picks in the top 100, a very big chunk of change. Add in the other picks they're bound to sign and you're looking at a total probably in the $8-10 million dollar range.

 

2. Will the fact that the brewers have so many top picks have an effect on whom they draft with those picks?

 

Absolutely. Signability always plays a part in who gets picked by all teams.

 

Will the brewers shy away from certain prospects who would command a high signing bonus because they only have a certain amount of money alloted to spend? or will they go after 1 or 2 expensive players and 5 players who do not command as much?

 

I'm sure one or two of the picks will be players they like but aren't players that are universally considered for an early selection. And I think it's safe to say they won't be taking any chances on a Boras player that falls (the only Boras players they have taken are ones like LaPorta who wasn't projected to be selected as high as he was and gladly accept the Brewers $2 million dollars). Every year someone suggests that the Brewers should take a chance on someone that falls, and they still haven't done that yet (and they typically adhere to the recommended slot values anyway).

 

Would the brewers go after the 7 best players with those 7 picks? or go after the greatest number they can afford to sign?

 

I'm sure the Brewers will identify players they like that they know they can sign for roughly slot value. Look at a few of the teams that had extra, early picks a year ago, most notably the Giants and Padres. Both of those teams managed to sign all of those picks but they didn't go out of their way to sign a player that had fallen and reached for a few while signing them for slot value.

 

3. What's the probability that the brewers will not sign all of their top 7 picks? or will this have any affect on the brewers not signing their round 3-10 picks?

 

Considering how good of a job the Brewers have done signing their picks since Jack Z. has taken over, I think the chances are pretty good that the Brewers are going to budget accordingly to be able to sign not only their top seven picks, but most to all of their day one (top 20 rounds) selections.

 

The only year they lost quite a few highly drafted players was in 2002 when they dropped $1.5M on Manny Parra, which wasn't expected. There was talk that year that the Brewers may take a player that would sign for less than slot value with the seventh overall selection instead of Prince Fielder (Khalil Greene was the rumored player they were going to reach for) to help balance the signing of Parra, but I'm happy the Brewers proceeded the way they did while allowing players such as Jarrad Page, Brian Hernandez and Steven White to go unsigned.

 

And if they don't end up signing any of their early picks (top two rounds), keep in mind they get a pick in the 2009 draft right after the corresponding selection (if they don't sign the player they take with the 32nd pick, they get pick 32A in '09). Unsigned third rounders garner a pick in a supplemental round after round three.

 

Plus, I noted in the Big Draft On Tap story that the elimination of the draft-and-follow process will also free up a sizable amount of money to help sign the extra picks. Last year the team spent $1.5M to $2M on Bryson, Tyson, Robinson and Haydel.

 

This will be a fun draft to follow. The scouts definitely are going to be challenged this year to gauge signability while identifying the right players to take.

[filthyfrog]

And if they don't end up signing any of their early picks (top two rounds), keep in mind they get a pick in the 2009 draft right after the corresponding selection (if they don't sign the player they take with the 32nd pick, they get pick 32A in '09). Unsigned third rounders garner a pick in a supplemental round after round three.

I've been thinking the Brewers could use this new rule to their advantage. By drafting someone who's not likely to sign at slot, the Brewers could essentially spread the wealth of draft picks into next year. Instead of four extra picks this year, they could have three this year and up to three (if Sheets is type A and signs elsewhere) next year. Spreading it out might make it easier to sign everyone they want to sign, and may alleviate the need to make any signability picks.

[CportBadger]

With Sheets, Gagne, and Turnbow all potential FA next season, and all ranking as B level players last season, the club has a very good chance at getting 3 extra picks for the next draft. A healthy year by Sheets, and a solid year from Gagne could make them type A guys, so you could be looking at 5 extra picks in '09 so I don't think they will draft anyone they don't expect to sign, just to get an extra pick next year.

 

Edit to add: Obviously losing Sheets will hurt, but the thought of having 7 of the first 90 picks this year and maybe 8 out of the first 100 in '09 means our system could be very deep when our young studs start to leave, and this club could remain very competitive heading into the middle to late portions of the next decade.

[And That]

With Sheets, Gagne, and Turnbow all potential FA next season

Turnbow isn't a free agent until after the '09 season. He signed a contract through '08 but he still has another year of arbitration.

 

There is a very outside chance Brian Shouse could become a Class B FA after the year. He'd obviously have to have a really good year for that to happen.