2008 Silver Lining Thread

[crewcrazy]

I have no idea if they did or not, but I would guess no -- PECOTA still has the Brewers averaging about 88 wins this season, which is pretty much where it was with Yo still pitching if I remember correctly.

 

The non-PECOTA adjusted report is a lot more grim -- they lost 15% over the past week, while the Cards gained 14% and the Cubs gained 1%.

 

This early the postseason odds are pretty much useless, but they're still fun to look at and at least the PECOTA-adjusted projections provide a little optimism on a gloomy off day. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

You can basically take 3 wins away from the Brewers expected win total (about 86 wins instead of 89). Some players are going to have to exceed their projections and/or the Brewers are going to need a little (not a lot) of luck. Of course, most teams need a little luck to make the playoffs, so I'm not going to sweat that fact in May. Maybe the Brewers have a 25% of making the playoffs now. I'll take that over 0%, which is basically what they had for most of the last decade.

[Mass Haas]

The Brewers have officially played the fewest home games in MLB with 13. All the other clubs that are even near that low total are home this week through Thursday, so it's not even close.

 

Take two of three in Florida, and you'll be over .500 when the next home stand finally begins (which is immediately followed by another road trip longer than the next home stand).

[Postseason2006]

The bat boys have done a heck of a job this year.

[endaround]

You aren't fans of the Reds

[trwi7]

We gained ground on the Cubs yesterday without even playing!

[samwise]

Despite our offensive struggles, at least we are not the San Diego Padres. They might score six runs the rest of the year.

 

Padre's Woes

[jazzytrav]

The bat boys have done a heck of a job this year.

Maybe the bat boys have done well, but the ball boy that was in left field have biffed at least two of them that the camera showed. One of them was crazy funny because he was moving forward, then had to stop, then took a digger on his bum. Hilarity ensued.

 

That's just great television http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[giffted1]

Finals are coming up and the Brewers are doing nothing to distract me from studying.

[brewers19]

The bullpen looked pretty darn good tonight.

[dlk9s]

I posted this in the IGT:

 

At this rate, we'll be the 2007 Cubs.

[crewcrazy]

I posted this in the IGT:

 

At this rate, we'll be the 2007 Cubs.

As long as the Cards are the 2007 Brewers, I'm totally fine with that.

 

[NYChez]

The bullpen may be as rested as its been in 2 weeks. All threw 12 pitches or less in an inning (which begs the question, why did it take 108 pitches for Suppan to make it through 5 innings?).

[TooLiveBrew]

One of my favorite things to do regarding baseball is to talk to a Cubs fan (one that you know, trust, &/or love... yes this is possible) about Prince Fielder. They fear him. It oozes out of their pores. All of our concerns about him (save defense) as Brewers fans are negated by the sheer crapiness this young man makes Cubs fans feel each time he steps into the batter's box. If you haven't tried it, be sure to ask a Cub fan you know &/or love how they genuinely feel when he comes up to bat. It'll make you feel better, if only for a while.

[lukevan]

It's only a matter of time before Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder start hitting home runs. It's coming.

[drezdn]

It seems like almost everyone at Huntsville is hitting over .300.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've loved posting on this board since the day I was tipped off to it -- most here have probably been here longer than me. The frustration with the slow start to this season has begun to manifest itself in some ugly ways, and that has certainly led to me getting frustrated. I apologize for the argumentative stance in the Vent thread (& in general; if you've read around, I'm sure you've encountered that elsewhere). All the stress at BF.net's forums has been getting to me lately, so this is my new approach.

 

I know you love them, and I hope you know I love them. They're the Brewers. I understand people being frustrated & pessimistic right now; I just sometimes wish optimism were better-received. I know (at least I think I do) that this team has enough talent to make the postseason. Even when your entire team is 100% consistent & you don't lose any player, let alone Yovani Gallardo, to injury, you can miss the playoffs. That's the biggest thing I've learned here. I'm a total amathematical being, but I've learned that the best a team can do is play their odds.

 

Even with Gallardo & Sheets for 35+ starts, this team could wind up finishing 2nd in the Central & out of the playoffs. What's the maximum possibility any given 'top' team can win the WS in a given season, 20%? Just looking at recent winners shows you that fluky WS champs are not only plausible -- they're downright common. All DM & Co. can do is gather as much talent as they think they can afford, try to find them the right spots to play, and then roll the dice. This team is not 'done', this team is not a bunch of underachievers...

 

This team started 5-1 &, imo, we felt affirmed. 15-11 at the end of April seemed a bit frustrating, but 'ok.' Now, 2-6 in the last 8, it's like a cancellation of that 5-1 high. Here's what's important to me right now: we've had a hot streak. We've had a cold streak. In between, the Brewers have played 9-9. Really, the only regular hitters to get hot are Hart & Kendall... maybe Cameron. The rest are far enough below what we can be relatively certain are their true talent levels, that it's just playing the best odds to think that they'll heat up at the plate. With that reasonable assumption (not certainty), I think we're much more likely to start going 10-8 & 12-6 in those 'middle 18' games. This offense is for real, and we haven't even been lucky enough to see it clicking yet.

 

Silver lining: the best is yet to come this season.

[naivin]

Silver lining: the best is yet to come this season.

I agree...largley with the entire post. Were Gallardo to make his regularly scheduled start tonight, I would be extremely excited. Due to the severity of that blow to the rotation however, my long-term prognosis is not all that positive. I suspect at the end of the year (leaving Sheets out of the discussion for the moment), we will all be left wondering what might have been had Gallardo not injured himself. However, I think the relative results will still be better than we have seen thus far, and they will manage to keep it interesting into September.

[biedergb]

Why I'm hopeful (sliver lining bullet points)

 

1. We have generally jumped out of the gates in April (in the past few years) only to suffer miserably in August/September. Maybe this is our mojo to reverse the trend

2. The last team that added Jeff Weaver mid season to a depleted pitching staff went on to win 83 regular season games, and then 11 post-season games which will win you a World Series trophy. (And Suppan was on that team too).

3. We are .500 team, with both aces missing starts, 2 of our best 3 hitters in relative slumps, and no hitter (except for Kapler) having had a 'hot streak'. It's a matter of time before we can hit to our potential. Let's hope our pitchers stay healthy.

4. This year the remainder of the bullpen has been adequate and it's been the closer who's been awful. So it's easier to weather that storm, than if the closer is lights out and the bullpen struggles (see Cordero et al in 2007).

5. This is to most esoteric of all: My favorite hockey team is the Penguins, and after a nice year in 2007 when they exceeded expectations, but bowed out very early in the playoffs (akin to losing a playoff spot in MLB during the last week), they struggled to start the season, then made it through some very big injuries to win the division and now are half way to the trophy. (Large stretch, but hey, a guy can dream, huh?)

[Tbadder]

Okay, we were suppose to regress. Everyone here knew there was no way we could keep up last year's place. There's comfort in them thar numbers. Doesn't knowledge count for any thing nowadays? I cuddle up at night with the knowledge that Prince will only hit 40 homers, but man oh man, 36 homers in his last 36 at bats of the season--I'd pay to see that!

 

But seriously, I like the point above. Jeff weaver rears his ugly head in an attempt to save his career, and pulls the Crew outta the doldrums. Bushie shifts to the bullpen, and once a week goes four innings for the save rescueing our bullpen. LaPorta can't be denied and we put him behind Prince, shipping out Cameron for high ceiling prospects at the high A level--only two more years to wait there. Don't laugh it could happen, when a domino falls...well, you never know!

[rluzinski]

I know you love them, and I hope you know I love them. They're the Brewers. I understand people being frustrated & pessimistic right now; I just sometimes wish optimism were better-received.

 

I just want people to not throw objectivity out the door when the going gets rough.

[danzig6767]

One of my favorite things to do regarding baseball is to talk to a Cubs fan (one that you know, trust, &/or love... yes this is possible) about Prince Fielder. They fear him. It oozes out of their pores. All of our concerns about him (save defense) as Brewers fans are negated by the sheer crapiness this young man makes Cubs fans feel each time he steps into the batter's box. If you haven't tried it, be sure to ask a Cub fan you know &/or love how they genuinely feel when he comes up to bat. It'll make you feel better, if only for a while.

I've read Cubs boards once in awhile, Braun is the guy they seem to hate the most, along with fearing him. In fact, on NSBB , they had a lengthy why i hate Ryan Braun thread.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

That'd probably cheer most people up here. That, and how crappily the Cubs have been playing lately. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[naivin]

The more I think about our post-Gallardo rotation, the more I think I may need to rescind my comments above. I suppose I better finish the thought in the Vent thread.

[RyDogg66]

we scored a run tonight!