Boston Globe likes the Brewers

[splitterpfj]

The funny part is, they like the Brewers' pitching depth, and in listing off all of the options, they forgot Capuano.

 

Here's to the improved defense, the improved bullpen depth, and the lllllooooonnnnnnggggg overdue run of health and good luck!

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/02/03/sticking_to_his_young_guns/?page=5

[TooLiveBrew]

"Here's another reason the Brewers are likely to win the NL Central: They have a surplus of starting pitching."

 

I love to hear that!

[logan82]

splitterpfj wrote:Here's to the improved defense, the improved bullpen depth, and the lllllooooonnnnnnggggg overdue run of health and good luck!

You really shouldn't talk about good health until it happens. Now we are jinxed.

[PeaveyFury]

You mean the Chicago media ISN'T the only source we should be using to judge our chances in the division next year?

Seriously, nice to see some love from some of the bigger media outlets.

[JohnBriggs12]

"The funny part is...they forgot Capauano"

 

What makes you think they forgot him?

 

Frankly, the only place Capuano gets so much love is here.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

"The funny part is...they forgot Capauano"

 

What makes you think they forgot him?

 

Frankly, the only place Capuano gets so much love is here.

An 29 year old, 18-game winner and a former all-star at least deserves mention before Claudio Vargas.

 

[JoeHova]

I think a lot of what happens this season will depend on what Doug gets for whatever pitcher(s) he trades away. He ended up doing badly (partly bad luck, partly hubris in ignoring all the stories about how Estrada was a %!%+%%%#+) in his last trade of a serviceable starter.

 

If he could somehow parlay a couple pitchers into a better catcher or 1 better pitcher, the team would be looking pretty excellent right now. As it is, there is a hole at catcher (though hopefully not as big a hole as Kendall was for the A's last year) and a few serious question marks on the staff. Gallardo and Villanueva look good but they are still young. Sheets will always be a question mark (until he isn't anymore), Suppan is average and the 5th spot probably won't be anything special (although it will hopefully be better than the average teams 5th starter). I fear another year where no one on the staff has a good year. If everybody is basically average again, I don't see the Brewers winning the division. They need a couple break-outs from the pitching staff, imo. Last year we all thought that they had a lot of pitching. It turned out that they did, just no good pitching (until the end when Gallardo and Villanueva dominated September).

[DrWood]

Capuano is 28, and the ironic thing is that he grew up in Massachusetts.

That's why it's odd a Boston paper ignored him.

[Ennder]

"The funny part is...they forgot Capauano"

 

What makes you think they forgot him?

 

Frankly, the only place Capuano gets so much love is here.

That is simply not true. Almost every single stats oriented or fantasy oriented baseball site expects a complete bounceback from him. It is only the knee jerks who judge a pitcher by last years ERA that don't think anything of him and those people are generally clueless anyway.

[TCSM]

splitterpfj wrote:Here's to the improved defense, the improved bullpen depth, and the lllllooooonnnnnnggggg overdue run of health and good luck!

You really shouldn't talk about good health until it happens. Now we are jinxed.

As long as they didn't mention salad thongs, sneezing, or slipping ( a la Wes Helms) we should be good to go http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[logan82]

I don't make any injury posts since I made a sarcastic one about Sheets last year hours before he got injured.

[don1481]

It is only the knee jerks who judge a pitcher by last years ERA that don't think anything of him and those people are generally clueless anyway.

 

I don't think this is a one year thing anymore.

 

Chris Capuano has now been pretty much bad since, well, pre-All Star 2006.

 

2006 Post-All Star: 1-8 5.17 ERA .278 BAA

2007: 5-12 5.20 ERA .286 BAA

 

I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt for awhile last year but... really, should the Brewers gamble on Capuano's return to his 1.5 good seasons (2005 and the first half of 2006)? He's been bad as much as he's been good. I'd say no at this point to entrusting Capuano in the rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

In an effort to cut down on the frequent-flier miles Ennder piles up on the Cappy threads...

 

Chris pitched basically the same for 2005, 2006, & 2007. Honestly, just not that much different. He had a terrible defense behind him in 2007, bad run support iirc, and the bullpen was worst following him than any other Brewers SP.

[pete]

Pity the defense that has to play with him pitching. Its like a guy doing the soundtrack to a Marvel comic movie... BAM... CRACK... POW...

[homer]

Pity the defense that has to play with him pitching. Its like a guy doing the soundtrack to a Marvel comic movie... BAM... CRACK... POW...

 

Do you say that because you think Cappy was always hit hard or that he was hit hard last year? Because gave up fewer line drives and fewer HRs/game in 2007 than in 2005 or 2006. His big problem was giving up more ground balls to a porous infield. The nerve!

[endaround]

That defense has to sit back waiting due to all the Ks!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1701_P_season_full_1_20071001.png

[Ennder]

Chris Capuano has now been pretty much bad since, well, pre-All Star 2006. 2006 Post-All Star: 1-8 5.17 ERA .278 BAA 2007: 5-12 5.20 ERA .286 BAA

 

Playing the sample size game is really tricky. So I'm not sure I buy into this. In July of 06 he pretty much just had a big spike in HR's for one month. In August of 2006 he was pretty darn dominant, 28 K, 3 BB, 23 H in 31 IP, 2.32 ERA.

 

In April of 2007 he had a line of 28 IP, 22 H, 21 K, 13 BB, 3.21 ERA which is not that bad at all. In May he again had a decent line just with a few extra singles. June was two ugly starts and time on the DL. July was just normal capuano but with a slightly elevated ERA but the same peripherals. August his stats did stink including a whipping 10 HR's allowed in just 30 IP. Then again in September he looked pretty darn good in his final 16 IP.

 

Can you really look at this month to month and make a blanket statement that he has stunk since mid 2006? I don't think that is really a fair thing to say at all. In fact it was mostly August that killed his season last year. In fact before the game he got hurt in and went on the DL he was sitting at a 3.80 ERA last year with better peripherals than his career rates and that was 1/3 of the way into the season.

[pete]

A porous infield or a lot of hard hit balls.

 

Is your declaration of line drive numbers based on stringers looking at videotape and assigning a general value to hit balls?

[homer]

My declaration of line drive numbers is not perfect by any means, but its more accurate than personal anecdotes.

[Ennder]

A porous infield or a lot of hard hit balls.

 

Is your declaration of line drive numbers based on stringers looking at videotape and assigning a general value to hit balls?

 

It is mostly based on the fact thatt the only thing that has changed in his skillset between 2005 and 2007 was the number of singles he gave up. K rate, BB rate, GB%, ISO, HR/9 etc all stayed the same, the number of singles he gave up went up and nothing else. Couple that with the fact the Brewers had the 3rd worst defense in the NL statistically last year and it seems like a pretty safe assumption to make.

 

2006 looked like the year he really stepped up because his BB rate went way down but now it just sort of looks like an outlier. 2005 and 2007 are almost statistical mirror images other than BABIP, in fact 2007 is probably slightly better than 2005.

[pete]

My declaration of line drive numbers is not perfect by any means, but

its more accurate than personal anecdotes.

 

Is that a yes or a no? Is it derived from a stringer looking at videotapes and assigning a general value?

 

And you have no idea whether observation is more accurate or not.

[RyDogg66]

My declaration of line drive numbers is not perfect by any means, but

its more accurate than personal anecdotes.

Is that a yes or a no? Is it derived from a stringer looking at videotapes and assigning a general value?

 

And you have no idea whether observation is more accurate or not.

Is the observer always taking note on the frequency of hard hit balls compared to Ks, balls that should have been gotten to, errors called hits, extra bases given up by bad OFs, etc? Or is the observer only observing when balls are hit hard??

I know I couldnt casually observe 30 starts in 2006 and then 30 starts in 2007 and tell you which season a guy gave up more hard hit balls unless I was tracking every pitch. The only balls that would leave an impression in my mind would be the bad ones. Nobody remembers the jam-job pop out with two out and a guy on 2nd, everyone remembers the bases clearing double down the line that may have been an out if a better fielder were there.

[don1481]

Can you really look at this month to month and make a blanket statement that he has stunk since mid 2006? I don't think that is really a fair thing to say at all. In fact it was mostly August that killed his season last year. In fact before the game he got hurt in and went on the DL he was sitting at a 3.80 ERA last year with better peripherals than his career rates and that was 1/3 of the way into the season.

 

It was mostly August... and July... and June.

 

And holy small sample size - month-by-month? I'm saying that if you look at his 1.5 season trends here, he had one 1.5 season stretch (2005-1st half of 2006) where he was pretty darn good and now one 1.5 season stretch (2nd half of 2006 - present) which was Obermueller-esque.

[homer]

LD%

Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.

 

 

And if you could somehow quantify your observations I'd take those into account too.

[pete]

LD%

 

 

Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the

percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.

 

 

 

You didn't really answer, but I confess, I already knew the answer. Its a stringer of unknown ability or accuracy, watching videotapes and categorizing them generally. BIS won't tell you how many stringers there are or if they are tested or rated against one another. Heck, the number and placement of cameras could have a major affect on the results. It could be what statisticians refer to as GIGO.

 

But hey, you were claiming that scrappy Cappy wasn't hit hard and that raw data openly admits to not giving that information, so what good is that? Heck, if you said you like him as a player and your impression was this and that, it would work for me. Its not like you or I are going to affect the decisions of the team or his performance.