Rank the NL as of right now.

[RobertR]

1. Phillies

2. Diamondbacks

3. Mets

4. Brewers

5. Cubs

6. Rockies

 

I think all the playoff teams are going to come out of this group.

 

7. Dodgers

8. Padres

9. Braves

10. Reds

 

Possibly dark horse contenders, but I think they're all going to fall short. Barring some major moves.

 

11. Astros

12. Cardinals

13. Nationals

14. Pirates

 

I don't see these teams being very good. Probably all finish in the 70-80 win range. Not awful, but not serious contenders.

 

15. Marlins

16. Giants

 

These two are going to get destroyed by the rest of their division. At least the Marlins are cheap and young.

 

Robert

[GenoSeligPrieb]

1. Diamondbacks

2. Mets

3. Cubs

4. Brewers

5. Phillies

6. Rockies

7. Dodgers

8. Braves

9. Reds

10. Padres

11. Astros

12. Cardinals

13. Giants

14. Pirates

15. Nationals

16. Marlins

[Getpaddled]

EAST

Mets (1)

Phillies (2)

Braves (8)

Marlins (14)

Nationals (16)

 

CENTRAL

Brewers (4)

Cubs (5)

Reds (7)

Astros (9)

Pirates (12)

Cardinals (13)

 

WEST

Padres (3)

Dodgers (6)

Rockies (10)

Diamondbacks (11)

Giants (15)

[TheCrew07]

The Dbacks were 90-72 last year and tied for the division lead. You can think they were a sub .500 team because of pythogorean W/L but that's an opinion, 90-72 is fact.

 

Yes their record was a fact but that has nothing to do with their talent. I find it really funny that you posted that and then listed them as the 3rd best team in the division even though they most likely had the biggest offseason in the division.

 

I would argue that their record had everything to do with their "talent". I thought our football team had better talent than 2-7, we were in every game, we just couldn't get over the top. So while we could have 6-3 or 5-4, we really were a 2-7 team in the final analysis, because that was our record. I understand where you are coming from, but to disregard their actual record and call them a below .500 team is a disservice to the truth. You can say you expect them to be below .500 this year, but last year's team regardless of how you feel about it was a 90 win team. I don't want to continually beat a dead horse but it's so clear to me that there's so much more to sports than pure talent, I just don't have the vocabulary to verbalize how I feel. IMHO the good teams are better than the sum of their individual pieces... there's a mystical quality when it all comes together that's very difficult to define.

 

I know certain people are going to blast this post like they always do because they feel you can remove the mental and emotion side of baseball through a large enough sample. However, I've said it before and I'll go to my grave believing that you cannot analyze wins and losses on a large sample, when games are won and lost in the small sample. The small sample of a single AB is what makes the game compelling....

[Ennder]

I think the talent of their team was a below .500 team, I figured it was really obvious what I thought by the statement as obviously they weren't actually under .500. The Diamondbacks were not a good team last year, they were a team that lucked into the playoffs. They will be better this year with the young players gaining another year of experience and the Haren trade but I still think they will have problems competing with the better teams in that division.

 

As for the mstical quality when it all comes together, the vast majority of teams that have said magical season regress to expectations the next year. I just think the Diamondbacks are another one of them. They have a well below average offense and two good SP since I have no faith in RJ. Their bullpen overproduced their peripherals last year and I just don't think the team can repeat.

[logan82]

I think the talent of their team was a below .500 team, I figured it was really obvious what I thought by the statement as obviously they weren't actually under .500. The Diamondbacks were not a good team last year, they were a team that lucked into the playoffs. They will be better this year with the young players gaining another year of experience and the Haren trade but I still think they will have problems competing with the better teams in that division.

So basically they will have a better team this year, but could have a worse record? I think that could be the case.

[Ennder]

So basically they will have a better team this year, but could have a worse record? I think that could be the case.

 

Yep, they will definitely be a better team, I don't see a way to argue that. The lineup almost has to be better just because it was so bad last year and Haren most certainly improves the rotation. I just don't think the pythagorean record was a fluke for them. Kind of like the White sox after their world series win. I'm not a slave to PR or anything, some teams most certainly deserve to outperform it. I just don't think the Diamondbacks are one of them to an extreme extent.

 

They probably deserved to out perform it by a small amount because of how strong the bullpen was but I still see them as a .500ish team going into the year and Haren alone doesn't turn that into a playoff team.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I just don't think the Diamondbacks are one of them to an extreme extent.

 

They probably deserved to out perform it by a small amount because of how strong the bullpen was but I still see them as a .500ish team going into the year and Haren alone doesn't turn that into a playoff team."

 

Ennder:

 

Your point is well-taken on Arizona, but they DID augment that talent this winter, and Randy Johnson just may be good for a few more wins. The Diamondbacks seem legit.

 

But don't you think the Rockies were a fluke, like the White Sox in '05? A perfect storm seemed to converge so neatly for Colorado last year. Pitchers like Herges, Affeldt, Corpas, even Redman somehow managed to shave a run to a run and a half off their career ERAs last season, much like Chicago did 3 years ago when hacks like Garland, Hermanson, Politte, Cotts and Buehrle started pitching lights out all at the same time, and then reverted right back to usual in the next 2 seasons.

 

I see stars like Holliday, Atkins, Helton and Hawpe staying as solid as ever, but it's entirely possible that the league may catch up to guys like Tulo, Tavares, Spilborghs, Ubaldo, Franklin Morales... That winning streak, a bad call at home plate by that ump against San Diego, guys like Ubaldo? I'd bet against that all happening again so quickly.

[Ennder]

I do to a degree, I'm not incredibly high on the Rockies. I think the team to beat in the west this year is going to be the Dodgers. That is a nice deep pitching staff and a very deep roster that can withstand injuries.

[Irish Brewer]

1. Mets

2. Diamondbacks

3. Phillies

4. Brewers

5. Rockies

6. Cubs

7. Braves

8. Padres

9. Dodgers

10. Reds

11. Astros

12. Cardinals

13. Giants

14. Pirates

15. Marlins

16. Nationals

[Gopher74]

gregmag1 wrote:

 

Pythagorean W/L is a fact too. Whether it's a more relevant fact than actual record is a matter of opinion. That said, yes, when I hear "sub-.500 team," I assume we're talking about the team's actual wins and losses. But that's semantics, not a difference between fact and opinion.

 

Greg.

No, it's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. It is more relevant. A pythagorean W/L doesn't get you into the payoffs.

 

Further more, the D-back did have a poor run differential, however, that offense is ripe with talented young players with VERY high ceilings. Upton, Drew, and Young are three guys that are going to break out and won't hit in the mid .200's next year, Jackson is a true power 1st basemen, Hudson's a all star, Reynolds/Traci at 3rd is very solid, Byrnes is like a cartoon character that I really can't stand, but he's solid, and should hit about 6th/7th on next years team. And they've got fantastic rotation with Webb, Harren, the Big Unit coming back, and Davis/Owings rounding out the back end, and then the back end of that pen is very good as well.

 

The fact that they learned how to win last year in close games should not be counte against them.

 

That said, my ranking. It's going to be much different and people will no doubt call me crazy, but so be it.

 

1-D-backs. As I said, I believe that offense will be very good and very imporved this year. High Ceiling talent at most positions.

2-Mets Seems obvious to some, but I don't think that Maine or Perez are going to be very good this year, and while Satana's a great pitcher, they lost Glavine who was very good last year, so it's not like he's replacing a nobody. Honestly, I expect a 20 win season and a 2.50-3.00 ERA out of him, but I just don't think the rest of that staff is very good.

3-Brewers Weeks is the key. And since I think he's going to be a .280/.400/.500 30/30 guy this year, it's no surprise I think they're a top 3 team.

4-Braves This team has all kinds off offense. In fact, they're the best offensive team in the NL IMO. Pitching is solid in the front, which is what counts come playoff time, but will leave them south of 95 wins.

5-Phillies Having Lidge allows Meyers to move back to the rotation, Hamels is going to be the second best lefty in the league this year IMO, and that offense will mash.

6-Rockies Last year was a bit of a fluke, but they're still very good. Not sure about their staff.

7-Cubs They're solid everywhere, but great nowhere, and if Marmol does post a 4.00-esque ERA that's going to hurt them very badly.

8-Dodgers They'd be 4-5 if they played their young guns. Alas, they do not, and thank you on behalf of the NL for that.

9-Padres-Meh. That's about it for them. Meh. Peavy's nice, as is Young. No offense.

10-Astro's-They've got that middle of the order that's as good as anyone. Pence-Berkman-Lee-Tejada. That is scary.

11-Cards They'll get Carp and Mulder back and they always find a way to at least be respectable.

12-Marins Getting Johnson back will help, but the young guys aren't quite there.

13-Giants They actually would have been my surprise team this year if they could have landed anything on offense with that rotation of Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, Zito and Sanchez. That's a exceptional rotation.

14-Reds Not a real big fan. Yea, they've added people, but Dunn will be gone by July, Griffey about a week after 600 if he doesn't blow out a hammy, and they'll go with the total youth movement.

15-Pirates Two years ago they were one of my picks to surprise and they haven't done anything to even pretend like they're trying to get better.

16-Nats Sorry Mr Zimmerman, you guy ssssuck.

[Ennder]

No, it's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. It is more relevant. A pythagorean W/L doesn't get you into the payoffs.

 

We aren't talking about what happened last year though, we are talking about predicting the talent level of this year and for that I'd want to use both of them.

 

Anyway it will be fun to see what happens. I like Upton, I don't think Drew is ever going to be a great SS and I think Young is going to take some time to really bust out as he learns plate patience. Jackson has reached the point that I don't expect him to be above average in his career, his upside is Lyle Overbay. I'm not a believer in Reynolds at all and it sounds like Tracy is going to have problems getting healthy for the season.

 

Webb/Haren are a nice top of the rotation but I think Davis will tank, Owings will take some time to grow and RJ is done. The bullpen should be solid but it won't be as good as last year. Others aren't going to share those opinions and that is fine. I still have them over .500 but I don't think they match last years W total even though the team itself is better than it was last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree with you in general on the D-Backs, Gopher, but I just don't feel as strongly about them as you do.

 

Jackson is a true power 1st basemen

 

I don't think this is true. He's a high BB, low K guy with better gap power than HR power. A guy whose power ceiling is around 30 HR isn't a 'true power 1B' imo.

 

Hudson's a sound player, but won't improve any more offensively - if anything, it's probably a safe bet that he regresses a bit imo. Reynolds should have a fine year in 2008, Tracy won't be the same player in 2008 (or maybe ever) after microfracture knee surgery, Upton probably can't be counted on for certain just yet to hit for a high average, Byrnes brings OBP & slick D, Young will probably improve, their pitching is very good, and team D is a strength. I just don't see their W-L being any better than in 2007, which was clearly above their talent level.

 

Byrnes is like a cartoon character that I really can't stand

That's the funniest & most accurate description I've encountered for Byrnes. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[jlau20]

I noticed everyone is ranking Philly pretty high, as they probably should be, but reading through this the thought just came to my mind of a possible Brewers/Phillies playoff series, it'd be great to see Jenkins make it to the playoffs the same year as the Brewers. Of course, I think we'd all rather see the Brewers come out on top, but it would be a cool story if the Brewers make it and Jenkins gets in there too even with a different team.

[Gopher74]

We aren't talking about what happened last year though, we are talking about predicting the talent level of this year and for that I'd want to use both of them.

I still don't see how there could be any debate that run differential is more important than how many wins a team gets. So I take issue with the statement that "it's up for debate" which is more important. Wins always trump a mathmatical equation that tries to predict how many wins a team SHOULD have.

I like Upton, I don't think Drew is ever going to be a great SS and I think Young is going to take some time to really bust out as he learns plate patience.

Well, Young was a pretty good rookie last year mis-cast as a leadoff hitter, but he's always done a good job of drawing walks, so he may not "bust out" for a couple years, but he should be a good player this year.

I'm not sure what you don't like about Drew, or I guess even if you don't like him(saying you don't think he'll be great is pretty vague), but I think an absolute worst case scenario is he'll be like Greene. A guy who hits 20-25 HR's a year, but doesn't carry a great BA, and who can pick it with the best of them at Short.
That's worst case. I think he's going to end up as a better SS than Tulo. We'll have to see though.

And it looks like we agree on Upton. He'll be a 5 tool star IMO. A Bo Jackson with a better BA in the near future.

Jackson has reached the point that I don't expect him to be above average in his career, his upside is Lyle Overbay.

Why on Earth would his "upside" be that of Lyle Overbay? He's 25 years old. Overbay I believe wasn't even a regular until he was about 27. But either way, at 25 years old, he's coming off two straight very good seasons. Not to mention the guy was a top prospect. I guess I just don't understand what makes you think that at age 25 he's topped out. I mean, career numbers so far of .282/.368 and 17/77 over 162 games.

I'm not a believer in Reynolds at all and it sounds like Tracy is going to have problems getting healthy for the season.

Again, I really don't understand where this comes from. He's 23 years old, and if you project last years numbers over 162, he'd of hit 25 HR's, 90 RBI's and .279/.349 for an .844 OPS.

As for Traci, we're talking about a guy who's been very productive for the last 4 years. 20 and 27 HR's in 05 and 06 and about .290/.350 with an OPS well over .800. So even if he's not healthy enough to play fulltime,which he won't be able to either way because he doesn't have a spot, but he will be a very valuable PH'er.

Webb/Haren are a nice top of the rotation but I think Davis will tank

They're more than a "nice" top of the rotation, they're at least one of the 3 best in the NL, and very possibly THEE best. As for Davis, again, this "feeling" just doesn't jive with his past performance. He's been a steady, reliable pitcher for the last 5 years posting ERA's of; 4.03, 3.39,3.84, 4.91, 4.25 throwing about 200 innings he last 4 years(in fact, he averaged well over).

Because a guy walks players doesn't mean for a fact that he's going to bomb the next season. Davis is a guy who walks a guy rather than give in to them, and he has a lot of success doing it. At what point do you say that his peripherals mean less than his actual performance? And we're talking about the number 4/5 starter.

Owings will take some time to grow and RJ is done.

How much "time" does he need to grow? He had a 4.30 ERA last year. He's also their number 5 starter, so even if he does fall off a touch, they'll still be fine.

As for Randy Johnson, c'mon Ender. I just said in another thread how objective you are, and here you are pretty much pulling this statement without any factual background. I mean, that's it? Just..."he's done"? The fact that every report says that he's feeling better and should be ready for ST doesn't matter? Or that he was very good last year when he WAS healthy? 72 K's against 13 BB's.
In the last 3 healthy seasons he's played, he's thrown about 675 Innings and won 17,17,16 games with ERA's of 2.60, 3.79 and 5.00, the last 2 in the AL East. I don't understand for the life of me why you think it impossible that he'd come back and at least be good number 3 for that team? Hell, he doesn't need to carry the load, just be solid. The fact is, I could see him having a great comeback year as he's at least rested his arm for a year now.

The bullpen should be solid but it won't be as good as last year.

Again, it's almost like you've made your opinion on the D-backs overall record and now you're trying to fit things around it and you're not really using any facts. Their pen could well be just as good this year. They've got a very good group at the back of it with Cruz, Lyon, Pena and Slaten, and then a slew of talented young arms who likely won't make the rotation(Gonzlez, Petit, ect..ect..).

Sayin that they won't be as good as last year essentially "just because" doesn't make a very compelling argument.


Again, I respect your opinions, I just don't see where you're coming from here.


(By the way, sorry for the long post)

[Gopher74]

 

I don't think this is true. He's a high BB, low K guy with better gap power than HR power. A guy whose power ceiling is around 30 HR isn't a 'true power 1B' imo.

 

Fair enough. I really meant to articulate that I thought he was a very good young player and young hitter. I also think he's got the powerto hit 30-35 HR's while playing very good defense and carrying a very good OBP.

 

As for Hudson, yea, he may regess(though he is just 30 years old), but he's at about the age where he should maintain at the very least for a couple years, and he's a GG'er at 2nd. I'd expect about .285/.365 with 10-13 HR's and very few SO's.

 

I just don't see their W-L being any better than in 2007, which was clearly above their talent level.

 

Well, I think saying "clearly" is overstating it. Great Defense, and a good bullpen can help a team win more games with a poor run differential. They also had a great manager. Bottom line, they won 90 games last year, and you can debate that they weren't that good, but they added a pitcher who in the NL may well be an ace, they're getting back a HOF left hander who is a number 2 if he can come back to the form that he showed the year before his injury, an a guy in Johnson who clearly still has the pure stuff.

 

And on top of all that, this is a team that had the best farm system two years ago in all of baseball and now those players are not only up, but they're up and they've got playoff experiance.

 

Oh, and I think one of the biggest benefits of the young players developing is that they can use Byrnes as a leadoff hitter and use Young down in the order some.

 

1-Byrnes-LF

2-Hudson-2B

3-Drew-SS

4-Jackson-1B

5-Upton-RF

6-Young-CF

7-Reynolds-3B

8-Montero/Snyder-C

And they've got a very good and very deep bench.

Traci- I've already mentioned his numbers, but even if he's not totally healthy, he's still a very good bat off the bench.

Snyder/Montero- Two good hitting catchers.

Carlos Gonzalez-A great prospect who has a cannon for an arm, and can play all 3 OF spots. Could push Byrnes and Young for PT.

Chris Burke-The guy everyone thought would take over for Biggio in Houston until the Astro's, who aren't ready to contend decided to dump him and pay Kaz Matsui about 10 times more money(more actually) to do about what Burke could likely do with a starting job. Anyway, the connsumate utility man. Can play just about anywhere on the diamond. Great pickup for the D-backs. And play all 3 OF spots, 2nd, 3rd and Short if needed.

 

My point is that while this team didn't have very good offense last year, they've got VERY talented players who were all very highly touted and who are very young and very ready to break out.

 

And again with

Webb-True ace, one of the best in the game.

Harren-3.07 ERA in the AL West last year. Should translate to about a 3.00-3.25 ERA in the NL West this year.

RJ-He's still a very good pitcher with very good stuff who is ultra competitive. I see a bounce back year this year.

Davis-He's been solid for a while now.

Owings-Again, he had a very good rookie year, a year in which he was their number 3. That it's his second year and he's now their 5 bodes very well.

Other SP'ers

Petit, Nippert, both guys who were high rated prospects, and Nippert who's a guy that has front of the rotation type stuff.

Max Scherzer's a guy who could very well be up this year as he's been fast tracked since he was drafted. Another potential frontline guy.

 

Then you have

CL-Cruz

SU-Lyons

SU-Pena

7th-Qualls

MR-Wickman

Loogy-Slaten

Medders, Nippert, Scherzer, Pettit, Gonzalez, Buckner, Gutierrez, Fruto and about 5 others could fill out the pen.

 

 

So fine, maybe last years team did over succeed, but you really have to forget about that and look at all the talent they've got either developing into their own, coming up from the minors, or guys they picked up.

 

This team looks loaded to me.

 

 

Though, if they do win just 80 games, I'm sure this will be bumpedhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[ILuvDaBush]

Carlos Gonzales was traded tot he Oakland A's for Dan Haren.

 

As for my prediction...

 

1. Mets-Offense and defense (and pitching)... This could be a special team.

2. Milwaukee-See Mets

3. Dodgy Fellows-Good pitching and high ceiling position players. They are the 'zona 'backs with better offense and slightly worse pitching.

4. 'Zona-That offense looks JV to me... A lot of high-ceiling frosh who have had their butts kissed because they could be great.

5. Phils-A ton of offense, some defense, and a pitcher or two sprinkled in for decoration.

 

I could see any of these five being the NL rep. in the Series.

 

6. Cubs-They have a good offense but the pitchers were performing so over their heads last year... I actually think this is more optimistic than it should be (like most would have said about the WS Champ Cards last year and their rotation of relievers). But they were the NL Central Champs and they are definitely better than the....

7. Rockies-Their offense AT Coors is huge. And they finally have a true phenom who can pitch there (Big fan of Francis). But in the AL Central of the NL, they're the third best team...maybe 4 behind the....

8. Padres-They are like the offspring of the Twins and A's. They are a cellar-dweller in terms of revenue within their division, but yet perennially compete because of a good scouting department (namely their relief pitching scouts). As we saw from the 'backs last year and these same Missionaries the year Prior (not to be confused with this year, the Year OF Prior), one pitcher can will a team to the playoffs.

9. Reds-They are the Rockies of the NL Central. They have one good pitcher at the top, another one who has shown the ability to pitch but isn't the epitome of consistent, and an offense filled with power bats.

10. Atlanta-At least they get to reunite Glavine and Smoltz. If McCann can smack a McHR, then all will be good, but I don't like Francouer, I don't like Johnson, and I don't like whoever they send out to center. The only piece I do like is the Chipper.

 

And then there was....

 

11. Cards-Carpenter and Pujols. I've seen teams win with less.

12. Astros-Oswalt and Berkman and Carlos...OH MY! Oh yeah...and Miggy Tejada. If only they could take THIS team back to 2005 with them. Where's Doc Brown??

13. Florida-Good times to be a spectator. Cruel times to be a fan.

14. Pirates-It could be worse, you could be a fan of...

15. The Nats

or

16. The 'Jints of San Fran.