25 man roster

[adambr2]

Seems even before spring training starts, we should have a pretty good idea of what we'll see.

 

Rotation: Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, and Capuano.

The first three are locks. Villanueva isn't a lock for the rotation, but I'd consider him pretty much a lock for the roster.

 

Bullpen: Gagne, Turnbow, Bush, Shouse, Mota, Riske, Torres

All are pretty much locks except Bush, Mota will get a spot with his contract. Bush could be replaced here with Vargas, at least one of them will be in the pen IMO, the other could be traded, unless Villy starts the season in the pen.

 

Lineup: Weeks, Hardy, Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hall, Cameron, Kendall

All 8 are locks, barring trades.

 

Bench: Munson, Gwynn, Dillon, Counsell, Gross

Munson is a lock unless we bring in something better. So are Counsell and Gross. Gwynn is a good bet and Dillon's versatility will probably get him a spot.

 

The way I see it, we've got at least 21 out of 25 roster spots already spoken for, and good bets for the other 5. Gwynn, Dillon, Capuano, and Bush are the other 4, and I think they're all likely to be on the roster opening day 2008. One of Capuano, Bush, and Vargas won't be, though.

 

Sorry Parra fans, but I don't think there's any way he doesn't start the season in AAA.

[Ennder]

Cameron won't be on the 25 man because of the suspension. I agree that Parra starts the year in AAA unless we find a trade. Bush/Capuano actually have options but I can't see them going to the minors at this point unless it is Capuano going for 'rehab' to buy time on a trade.

[PrinceFielder28]

Why is Munson a lock at catcher what about Rivera?

[lukevan]

I'd like to see Vargas flipped for a backup catcher better than Munson, if such a deal would be possible, I'm not sure. I just always envisioned Munson as AAA fodder.

[1992casey]

Bush/Capuano actually have options but I can't see them going to the minors at this point unless it is Capuano going for 'rehab' to buy time on a trade.

There's an obscure rule saying that players must clear revocable waivers if they're optioned at least three calendar years after their first appearance on a 25-man roster. I think Cappy and Booshie would probably fall in the group that would have trouble clearing waivers under this circumstance.

 

Reference: Death, Taxes, and Major League Waivers (listed in the Transaction Rumors / Proposals FAQ thread)

[DrWood]

Cameron won't be on the opening day roster, making Gwynn very likely.

One of the pitchers will probably be nicked up, opening another slot.

And someone is getting traded.

Rivera fits the bill as a AAAA player more than munson does.

[logan82]

1992casey wrote:

There's an obscure rule saying that players must clear revocable waivers if they're optioned at least three calendar years after their first appearance on a 25-man roster. I think Cappy and Booshie would probably fall in the group that would have trouble clearing waivers under this circumstance.

 

Reference: Death, Taxes, and Major League Waivers (listed in the Transaction Rumors / Proposals FAQ thread)

Is there still a 5 and 10 rule. If you have 5 years in the majors with one team and 10 years total you can decline an assignment to the minors.

[Fear The Chorizo]

there just has to be a trade or two in spring training involving the glut of #6 starters this team has - I for one don't like the idea of having to send Parra to the minors just because he has minor league options left, especially if he outperforms the likes of Capuano, Bush, and Vargas.

 

I think Melvin's praying for some arm troubles of opposing teams, so he can deal some Brewer arms for low to mid-level prospects - he's not going to get equal value for any of Bush, Cappy, or Vargas anyway, but getting at least something instead of losing a veteran arm through waivers would be ok.

[Ennder]

If Capuano looks good in spring training I think he is very easy to move to some team. He has the all star game and 18 wins in his past etc which some teams go for. Bush and Vargas seem like harder sells to me.

[DrWood]

Vargas seems like an easy sell to me (for a team that wants a one-year stopgap that could possibly be extended), though won't get much more than a bag of peanuts in return. Of course, Villanueva seemed like a bag of peanuts.

[logan82]

there just has to be a trade or two in spring training involving the glut of #6 starters this team has - I for one don't like the idea of having to send Parra to the minors just because he has minor league options left, especially if he outperforms the likes of Capuano, Bush, and Vargas.

Sending Parra to the minors is looking past 2008. It isn't a given, but the odds we lose Sheets are pretty big. We would basically have to trade 2 of Vargas/Bush/Capuano to keep Parra in the majors. Looking past this year that would leave us with Suppan, Villanueva, Gallardo, Parra and one of Bush/Cappy/Vargas. Our pitching surplus this year quickly becomes a lack of pitching in 2009 if we move more than one of those guys. Unless we think Zack Jackson is who we want competing for a starting rotation spot.

[twobrewers]

One of the pitchers will probably be nicked up, opening another slot.

I am pretty confident one of our pitchers will pitch all of spring training before developing some sort of ailment that lands them on the DL.

 

You can always stash players away for a few weeks with fake injuries.

 

Capuano - "Sore Back"

Bush - "Headache"

Vargas - "Menstrual Cramps"

 

Lets face it, there are plenty of ways to keep more than 25 players on the opening day roster.

[Roscoe Chill]

Why do I keep thinking that if the Brewers just non tendered Vargas, and non tendered Estrada (and therefore didn't take on Mota) the pieces of the puzzle would fit better and there would be $7 million left over to spend at another time? Getting "a bag of peanuts" for Vargas seems to be just taking the long way to getting rid of him for nothing. Not saying I disagree, just saying if that would indeed happen, wouldn't there have been less of a risk by just letting him walk?

 

Think about this staff, along with $7 million to play with somewhere down the line:

 

starters: Sheets-Gallardo-Suppan-Villanueva-Parra

pen in no particular order: Capuano, Bush, Riske, Torres, Turnbow, Shouse, Gagne

 

You could still have trade bait with either Bush and/or Capuano, and actually have your best pitchers pitching from the beginning of the season in what one would hope would be a season that ends with a post season.

 

Just my opinion.

[xisxisxis]

You could still have trade bait with either Bush and/or Capuano, and actually have your best pitchers pitching from the beginning of the season in what one would hope would be a season that ends with a post season.

 

Most seasons have a postseason. Just not with the Brewers in it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I like that we are 3 deep in the rotation. Come spring training somebody will come up with soreness, or get banged up and hopefully not anything worse. I doubt we break camp without one of the 8 possible starters on the DL. If we are lucky to have all 8 healthy, Parra goes to AAA, and Dougy get's the best deal for either Bush, Capuano, and Vargas. If we get a stud prospect giving up Bush or Capuano to a contender that loses a SP or 2 or Kansas City or Seattle because they like to overpay, I would rather take the better deal and keep Vargas for long relief than to simply dump Vargas to clear space. We are definitely positioned to be a seller in a marker where the demand heats up as injuries begin to pile up.

[1992casey]

Is there still a 5 and 10 rule. If you have 5 years in the majors with one team and 10 years total you can decline an assignment to the minors.

5/10 refers to the point where a player has complete no-trade protection. There's a point well before that where a player needs to agree to being optioned. 5 years comes to mind, but that's a guess. I believe Glendon Rusch had to agree to be sent to Indy in 2003.

[Bnowell4evr]

Why do I keep thinking that if the Brewers just non tendered Vargas, and non tendered Estrada (and therefore didn't take on Mota) the pieces of the puzzle would fit better and there would be $7 million left over to spend at another time? Getting "a bag of peanuts" for Vargas seems to be just taking the long way to getting rid of him for nothing. Not saying I disagree, just saying if that would indeed happen, wouldn't there have been less of a risk by just letting him walk?

If you take a look around the league theres alot of teams that could use Vargas in there rotation. I did a quick skim around and these teams (Phillies, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Whitesox and the Orioles) would look at Vargas as an upgrade over who they currently have in there 5 spot and in some cases the 4th spot in the rotation. Teams like the Mets, Tigers, Indians and the Redsox could look at him as a LR to start the season and a fill in starter if someone gets injured. Playoff teams need depth at SP and DM knows that. Theres no doubt in my mind that Melvin is gonna get something for Vargas or Bush whether it be a low level prospect of a backup catcher. With the settling of Johan and the Bedard trade nearing an end the phonecalls are gonna start coming in.

 

In reguards to Mota I personally think he is worth a shot when you compare him to the guys on the FA market and who we had in our pen at the time. Mike Maddux must think he can work his magic with him because he does have good stuff. The Brewers have a fascination with power arms like Turnbow McClung etc and Mota fits into that bill. Atleast the money we are giving to Mota is only for a year and looking at the deals we made this offseason his 3+ million salary didnt really have an affect on anything we did. Best case scenario he has a good year becomes a setup guy solidifies our bullpen and becomes a type B free agent. Worst case scenario he plays like last year in NY and we waive him.

[logan82]

I remember Giambi refusing to go to the minors a few years back, but forget exactly why he was able to decline.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Sending Parra to the minors is looking past 2008.

 

While that's true, I don't know how important keeping Parra's major league service time down will be 3-4 seasons from now, when the current roster will be loaded with contract/arbitration angst, and several of our "core" players will be playing elsewhere. While it's important for small market teams to keep their youngsters around as much as possible to build a team from within, they also have to do as much as possible to contend during their 'window'. IMO, keeping Parra in the minors this season because Sheets probably won't be resigned next year doesn't make sense if he's a better pitcher than several of their other starters - not if they view 2008 as their best chance to win.

 

I don't see multiple trades happening in order to open up a spot for him on the 25-man before opening day, but I'd really hope that the Brewers are thinking of calling him up around the July 31 trade deadline, similar to what they had planned for Gallardo last season (until Sheets got hurt, Capuano was on the DL, and the rest of the rotation decided to stink, warranting Yo to get called up a few weeks earlier than anticipated).

[logan82]

Fear The Chorizo wrote:

While that's true, I don't know how important keeping Parra's major league service time down will be 3-4 seasons from now, when the current roster will be loaded with contract/arbitration angst, and several of our "core" players will be playing elsewhere. While it's important for small market teams to keep their youngsters around as much as possible to build a team from within, they also have to do as much as possible to contend during their 'window'. IMO, keeping Parra in the minors this season because Sheets probably won't be resigned next year doesn't make sense if he's a better pitcher than several of their other starters - not if they view 2008 as their best chance to win.

I wasn't looking at the service time aspect of it, but that is a good idea as well. Like I stated, we more than likley would have to trade at least 2 players to make room for Parra and if we do that leaves us with only 5 decent starters in 2009. If we want Parra up this year I think it drastically impacts our rotation in 2009. In my opinion we are not a franchise that can ignore the future at the cost of the present.

[Roscoe Chill]

I did a quick skim around and these teams (Phillies, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Whitesox and the Orioles) would look at Vargas as an upgrade over who they currently have in there 5 spot and in some cases the 4th spot in the rotation. Teams like the Mets, Tigers, Indians and the Redsox could look at him as a LR to start the season and a fill in starter if someone gets injured.

 

I understand that Vargas may be better than some of these teams' other starters. But that doesn't mean that they will trade for Vargas. A team that is rebuilding wouldn't be wise to take on Vargas and his $3.6 million to chase 75 wins would they?

 

I could be wrong and he will get traded for something of value. But I'm not going to hold my breath. And if he's traded for a low level, low ceiling prospect or two, I stand by my statement that it would have just been easier and less risky to non tender him.

[1992casey]

Fear The Chorizo wrote:

While that's true, I don't know how important keeping Parra's major league service time down will be 3-4 seasons from now...

I wasn't looking at the service time aspect of it...

Besides being able to have room for another veteran arm, just in case, I'd be thinking of the pitch count aspect. It's a lot easier to control in the minors.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's not just a glut of starters, there is a glut of pitchers period. There are 13 pitchers for 12 spots not counting Parra, McClung, Stetter or Choate for which a case could easily be made for inclusion on the 25 man roster. There are 5 right handed short relievers. That's one more than needed. Most 12 man rosters contain one long reliever/spot starter, one middle reliever who can go 2-3 innings, and 5 short relievers including one or two lefties. Assuming Vargas, Capuano, or Bush becomes the long man/spot starter, that leaves the middle reliever spot open. It's a lot easier in my book converting a starter to middle reliever than it is converting a one inning guy into a 2-3 inning guy. In fact, they did just that with Capuano for a period late last season. So I say they should trade a short reliever.

 

Now since 4 of the 6 short relievers were just acquired, I doubt they will turn around and trade any of those guys. That leaves Turnbow and Shouse. Now Shouse is the lone lefty and would have to be replaced by either Stetter or Choate, so even if he was traded, it wouldn't solve th glut.

 

Therefore the logical guy to trade is Turnbow.

[dadofandrew]

Any of the guys can be a 2-3 inning middle man. On the rare occasions in the NL a reliever goes more than 2 IP, a guy like Mota or Turnbow easily could. In fact, given how he performs poorly with 0 days of rest, I think Derrick would be a very good guy to use for multiple innings.

[JohnBriggs12]

Any of the guys can be a 2-3 inning middle man. On the rare occasions in the NL a reliever goes more than 2 IP, a guy like Mota or Turnbow easily could. In fact, given how he performs poorly with 0 days of rest, I think Derrick would be a very good guy to use for multiple innings.

 

Couldn't disagree with you more Al. Turnbow has never once in 210 appearences as a Brewer gone beyond 2 innings. In fact, he's reached 2 innings just twice.

Turnbow is way too inefficient with his pitches to pitch multiple innings. If you would have said Torres, maybe, but not Turnbow.

[dadofandrew]

He's always been a short reliever, and those guys are usually used for an inning, or for an inning plus a batter.

 

He does throw a lot of pitches, but that isn't a huge deal...a guy like Maddux throws 13, and a guy like Derrick will throw 17 per. There certainly is not enough history to know how he would perform, but when he's on, he could easily go for another inning.

 

I see Riske and Gagne being the 8th and 9th inning guys, so the rest will have to work itself out.