Feature Story: Big Draft on Tap

[colbyjack]

I wrote a feature story that is currently up on the hompage discussing the extra draft picks Jack Z. and his scouting staff get to look forward to this June, while also talking about the end of the DFE process:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=273

[igor67]

I'm kind of torn on what sort of "strategy" I would like this June. What seems clear is that with that many picks a good job by Jack in this draft could be enough to turn a 4-5 year window into a decade of sustained excellence. Jack's batting average on early round hitters is off the charts good. Seemingly his notable early round weakness has been drafting pitchers. The paradox really seems to be that outside of adding a another name to the catcher position and third base and CF, pitching is the best area to build more depth. Further it seems unlikely that the team would necessarily find good matches at all three position of "need". I guess in my stream of consciousness a good first day for me would look something like this. 1st round pick best player of 3rd, catcher, or CF. Supplemental 1st one of the two picks on another position guy and then the next best pitchers they can find. In terms of the long term and cranking out more high quality talent going early to Jacks strength in hitters (without going for just one position) and then stocking up on a number of similarly ranked pitchers seems like the best bet to me to generate another core type group of prospects to carry the team into the post 2012 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

a good first day for me would look something like this. 1st round pick best player of 3rd, catcher, or CF. Supplemental 1st one of the two picks on another position guy and then the next best pitchers they can find.

 

I would not like to see the first pick limited by positional constraints. If there's any pick for the BPA strategy, imo it's your #1 - especially with so many picks in the first 2-3 rounds. I do like your focus on which players to draft, though... and focusing on big Z's strength offensively with our early pick(s). However, if there's an arm too good to pass up at #16, I see no reason why to avoid it. Just from a quick look at the BF draft rankings... if Cole St. Clair (LHP, Rice), Christian Friedrich (LHP, Ea. Kentucky), Tyson Ross (RHP, Cal), Jacob Thompson (RHP, UVA), or Brett Hunter (RHP, Pepp.) are available, it'd be hard to pass.

 

Then again, in the 12-20 (BF) range, there's a C, 2 CF, & 2 3B candidates. This looks to have worked out very foruitously for the Brewers.

[Katuluu]

You'd like to think they might finally draft few colege pitchers in the upper rounds since they can be had for less money.

[ILuvDaBush]

Just draft the best bats and let Reid Nichols sort it out. If an undeniably talented arm falls in your laps (Will Inman comes to mind... Maybe Jeffress), then you adapt your strategy to the landscape.

[colbyjack]

This past week I've seen two references mentioning the Brewers organizational weakness at catcher and 3B. McCalvy reported it earlier this week, and Haudricourt had it in his weekly notes column today in the paper. We also have rumblings of Doug Melvin hyping up Alcides Escobar, possibly to prep everyone for a future move of Hardy to the hot corner. And there's no rush there either since Bill Hall is signed for three more years (assuming the organization can find a way to make him happy this year).

 

In today's MJS Haudricourt also talked about how Mat Gamel is going to get extra special attention at third base from Don Money, the AA manager, and roving instructor Garth Iorg. Both were tabbed by Ash as two of the game's best defensively during the eras they played in. Basically they were stating that if Gamel doesn't get it this year he's never going to.

 

Anyway, I bring this up because I think it's a lock that we see a catcher drafted among one of the team's extra picks. This is the time of year they're setting up their spring-long plan of attack scouting-wise, so I'm sure that is why third base and catcher keep getting brought up.

 

Buster Posey of FSU may just be the Brewers next first-round pick in their quest for an entirely homegrown lineup...

[TooLiveBrew]

Given the surplus, colby, could you see the Crew spending a pick on Posey & then another on Petey Paramore? It appears Paramore may not be able to stick behind the plate, but can really hit. Between Lucroy & those two, you'd have great depth at C.

[colbyjack]

That's an interesting idea TLB, but I'm not sure the Brewers would do this unless they feel Posey is advanced enough to start a level higher than Paramore. You don't want those two guys taking time away from one another behind the plate, because they both will continue to need professional seasoning defensively (Posey has only been catching for about a year and a half now).

 

But Paramore has improved his defensive skillset while creating some questions about his bat while struggling last summer with Team USA. While Posey doesn't have Paramore's power potential, he's about as steady as they come with the bat, hitting for a high average in two springs with FSU and two summers on the Cape.

 

In 2005 the Brewers took a few 3B in Braun, Gamel, Carlos Hereaud (who really hasn't materialized as much as many thought) and even Mike Bell, who has spent more time at 2B. I could see the Brewers using a couple of high picks on catchers, but they likely would be a year or two apart similar to how Braun and Gamel were. Meaning, if Posey or Paramore were selected, I'm guessing another catcher would be added from the high school or even juco ranks that would be brought along more slowly, again more similar to where Gamel was at when the team drafted him.

 

Again, it's an interesting idea, and I agree that it would add excellent organizational depth at the position, particularly since the club so far has had some difficulty procuring good catchers, but really few teams do. Taking a couple of the best available with some of their extra, early picks may be a similar approach to loading up on pitching while hoping a few of them stick.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure the Brewers would do this unless they feel Posey is advanced enough to start a level higher than Paramore. You don't want those two guys taking time away from one another behind the plate, because they both will continue to need professional seasoning defensively (Posey has only been catching for about a year and a half now).

 

Good point - and I certainly did not intend to suggest that they should share time through the system.

 

Again, it's an interesting idea, and I agree that it would add excellent organizational depth at the position, particularly since the club so far has had some difficulty procuring good catchers, but really few teams do. Taking a couple of the best available with some of their extra, early picks may be a similar approach to loading up on pitching while hoping a few of them stick.

I know you (& others) have talked about how some teams have used their compensatory picks on high-ceiling/high-risk players. While the individual players themselves may not fit that criterion, the position of C certainly does in my eyes. When I checked the draft board at C, & saw Posey & Paramore, the first thought I had was of Pierzynski & Mauer in Min. a few years back. Granted, that's a situation with the necessary amount of developmetal-time gap between the two C, but it still made me go, 'hmmm...'

 

I'd love to see a comp. pick get used on a C that's a high-risk/high-reward situation. Obviously I'd like to see more than one taken, given the right circumstances (a la Braun & Gamel).

[Big Reed]

rather than addressing a specific need of position, is it possible the brewers may address a specific need for the batting order? or a specific need for defense?

 

In the past few drafts, the brewers have gone after some very talented hitters. But very few of those hitters knew much about playing defense. Is it possible the drafting philosophy might change to go after a position player known for his defense and arm instead of his bat? Then again do any teams draft players for their defense over their offensive skills?

 

I would love the for the brewers to draft a prototypical lead off hitter. I think we have enough hitters who can hit the long ball. I would love to see the brewers drafting a singles hitter who has speed. I would love to see a Icharo, Vince Coleman or Lofton or Lou Brock type of hitter at the top of the brewers' order. I think having somebody who could steal 50+ bases would add another weapon/dimension to the brewers' offense. Perhaps, one would say the brewers already have that player in Tony Gwynn Jr. but he is not really known as a stolen base artist.

[colbyjack]

Jemile Weeks could be that player. I'm not so sure he's as dynamic as a Ichiro, Lofton or Lou Brock type of player, but he's a pesky little bugger that plays good D' at 2B. He's not a huge SB threat, but he could manage 20-30 per year.

 

Xavier Avery, a prep OF that is an amazing athlete and has drawn some unfair comparisons to Carl Crawford given his prowess in both football and baseball, is probably the fastest player that is available in the draft. He's raw though and will need refinement and patience.

 

Otherwise, I'm not so sure the Brewers draft for that specific of a need. They've been burned twice trying to draft the team's leadoff hitter of the future with Chad Green and Dave Krynzel.

 

And I don't think the Brewers draft for defense, as they have been drafting accomplished bats in the early rounds ever since they took Fielder in '02. I think if they address any specific needs early they'll target a catcher and a college closer with one (or more) of their early picks.

[TooLiveBrew]

Perhaps, one would say the brewers already have that player in Tony Gwynn Jr. but he is not really known as a stolen base artist.

 

Or a 'singles hitter'... or even a 'hitter'

 

Jemile Weeks could be that player. I'm not so sure he's as dynamic as a Ichiro, Lofton or Lou Brock type of player, but he's a pesky little bugger that plays good D' at 2B. He's not a huge SB threat, but he could manage 20-30 per year.

 

Lil' Rickie? Even though I try to not get caught up in stuff like that, I have to admit it'd be kinda cool - but only if he turned out to be solid. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[ILuvDaBush]

It would have been cooler had we signed him...