Cubs-Brewers roster comparison

[treego]

As a Brewers fan, I hate to admit this: the Cubs simply have a better roster than the Brewers.

 

The Cubs top 6 batters tonight are nearly all .300 hitters. One guy at .290, another at .299. One guy at .278. These guys overall are just tougher outs than the Brewers lineup, especially with Yost benching his best all too regularly, it seems. Mark DeRosa is a very good ballplayer and cannot even crack the starting lineup tonight.

 

Along with that, the Cubs pitching staff is rock-solid. The only bad arm on their staff is Scott Eyre. Everybody else (and I mean "everybody else") has a good to very good WHIP and BAA. Again, there are virtually no weak links on their staff. They can use Eyre in out-of-control games and no other games so Eyre's ineffectiveness is not much of an issue at all.

 

Somebody, please try to convince me that the Brewers truly have better talent overall in terms of hitting and pitching. I could use the cheering up considering the Brewers fade over the past few months.

 

 

(unambigufied thread title --1992)

[rluzinski]

Since before the season started, my contention was that the two teams were pretty close in talent. I haven't seen anything to really change my mind. As I've been saying for a long time, it's probably going to be an interesting race.

[Brewcrewin07]

The Brewers are a more talented team. One thing you have to consider is a good majority of the Cubs players are playing way over their heads right now. Mike Fontenot?? Who is he?? Once the league gets the book on him he will come back to reality. Even Armas Ramirez is hitting close to .400 since he came back from his injury. These numbers simply will not hold.

 

If you have had a chance to watch any Cubs games lately you will see that they have had a lot of bloop hits, a lot of non hard hit balls that are finding holes for RBI's right now. IOW, a lot of luck. Everything is just going their way right now.

 

As much as it bothers me to see the Cubs this close to the Crew, the simply cannot keep playing at almost a .700 clip. Remember what happened to the Crew after starting 24-10?? The same will happen here.

 

Here's a prediction for you....The Cubs lose tonight keeping the Crew lead at 2 games. They then get beat by Bronson Arroyo Friday Night while the Crew wins pushing the lead to 3 games.

Saturday, there is simply no way they beat Harang and the Brewers will sweep the DH. lead after Saturday....4.5 games.

 

Watch how the tone on these boards change after that.

[strawbossisevil]

Well let's look at it position by position and the stats to this point of the season (OPS):

 

Catcher: Estrada/Miller vs. Kendell/Hill (Advantage Brewers)

1st Base: Fielder vs. Lee (Advantage Brewers)

2nd Base: Weeks vs. Fontenot/DeRosa (Advantage Cubs)

SS: Hardy vs. Theriot (Advantage Brewers)

3B: Braun vs. Ramirez (Advantage Brewers)

LF: Jenkins/Mench vs. Soriano (Advantage Cubs)

CF: Hall vs. Jones (Advantage Brewers)

RF: Hart vs. Floyd/DeRosa (Advantage Brewers)

 

So basically, the Brewers are better offensively at all but two positions in the lineup.

 

Now pitching (using ERA):

 

Gallardo/Sheets vs Zambrano (Advantage Brewers)

Capuano vs Lilly (Advantage Cubs)

Bush vs Hill (Advantage Cubs)

Suppan vs Marshall (Advantage Cubs)

Vargas vs Marquis (Advantage Cubs)

 

Bullpen:

Cordero vs. Dempster (Advantage Brewers)

Turnbow vs Marmol (Advantage Cubs)

Libebrink vs Wuertz (Advantage Brewers)

Wise vs Ohman (Advantage Brewers)

Shouse vs Eyre (Advantage Brewers)

Villenueva vs Howry (Advantage Brewers)

 

Basically, what I think this shows is that it isn't the Cubs' offense that sets itself apart from us, as our offense is superior at 7 of the 9 positions. Our Bullpen is also much better than the Cubs. Where we fall short is in our starting rotation. Adding Sheets back in there, makes it a lot closer, but the Cubs 3-5 pitchers are all very good, while ours are merely adequate.

[treego]

I disagree with your 1st base assessment. I don't think Fielder is clearly better than Lee. Lee is a better average hitter and a better fielder, to boot. I call this even at best for the Brewers.

 

I disagree with your SS assessment. Theriot is playing better than Hardy over the past few months, certainly.

 

I even disagree with your 3B assessment. Ramirez is a better clutch hitter than anybody. Braun has been excellent, no doubt, but he's not the defender that Ramirez is, either. I call this one even.

 

RF is break-even also, I think.

 

Saying that Gallardo is superior to Zambrano is not a proper assessment, either. I like Gallardo, but he's not an all-star, yet.

 

You left Dempster (the Cubs closer) out of your comparison, also. You are comparing apples and oranges a little, it seems, as a result.

 

You didn't convince me much. It seemed you were a tad biased. It was an interesting view, though.

[brewcrewkid14]

In the rotation I think Zambrano has the advantage over Gallardo just because he has the ability to go late, where as the Brewers are keeping Gallardo's innings limited. With that said, I feel it is better warranted to compare Suppan and Marquis and then Vargas and Marshall. Vargas and Marshall is advantage Brewers, where as lately, both Marquis and Suppan have been about the same situation: faltering mightily. I think that the Cubs have the slight advantage there though. I also feel that Hill and Bush are pretty equal and could go either way.

 

On the offensive spectrum, I think that Theriot right now may have the advantage over Hardy as he continues to hit better lately than Hardy. Ramirez and Braun could go either way also.

[strawbossisevil]

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I disagree with your 1st base assessment. I don't think Fielder is clearly better than Lee. Lee is a better average hitter and a better fielder, to boot. I call this even at best for the Brewers.

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While Lee is a good 1st baseman. Going on OPS alone, Fielder is still about 60 points higher. He has been the better hitter to this point in the season.

 

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I disagree with your SS assessment. Theriot is playing better than Hardy over the past few months, certainly.

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Like I pointed out above. Hardy has a far better OPS than Theriot (which is what I am using to base my evalutions). I don't think it's fair to only evaluate the players on a small sample. It's not "what have you done for me lately", but "what can I expect from you based on your season long stats"

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I even disagree with your 3B assessment. Ramirez is a better clutch hitter than anybody. Braun has been excellent, no doubt, but he's not the defender that Ramirez is, either. I call this one even.

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Braun already has as many HRs on the season as Ramirez and has an OPS about 100 points higher. Going on pure OPS along he has been better than Ramirez this season. As far as clutch hitting, I think that's been proven on this site to be something that is based on perception and not reality. He definitely isn't the defender that Ramirez is, but that isn't what I was using to compare them (OPS).

 

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RF is break-even also, I think.

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Hart is far superior to Floyd or DeRosa in every point of his game. Plus he is OPSing higher (which I'll repeat was what I was using to measure the players).

 

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Saying that Gallardo is superior to Zambrano is not a proper assessment, either. I like Gallardo, but he's not an all-star, yet.

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I forgot to put Gallardo/Sheets instead of just Gallardo. To this point of the season the Gallardo/Sheets combination has put up better numbers than Zambrano. And that is all that post was comparing, the facts as we have them up to this point in the season, and not perceived value.

 

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You left Dempster (the Cubs closer) out of your comparison, also. You are comparing apples and oranges a little, it seems, as a result.

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My bad, Yahoo didn't have him listed as on the team in their depth charts, obviously he is. I'll rearrange the players, but the Brewers will still come out ahead, as Villy is better than Howry. The Brewers bullpen is much better than the Cubs.

 

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You didn't convince me much. It seemed you were a tad biased. It was an interesting view, though.

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How was I biased, all I used was the stats (the facts as they have played out so far this season.)

[treego]

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He definitely isn't the defender that Ramirez is, but that isn't what I was using to compare them (OPS).

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Well, when I compare players. I compare using the whole picture ... not just isolated statistics. Fielding is important.

[strawbossisevil]

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Somebody, please try to convince me that the Brewers truly have better talent overall in terms of hitting and pitching. I could use the cheering up considering the Brewers fade over the past few months.

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I didn't factor in Defense, because you didn't ask for it. You asked for hitting and pitching. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[treego]

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I don't think it's fair to only evaluate the players on a small sample. It's not "what have you done for me lately", but "what can I expect from you based on your season long stats"

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Well, it seems you're contradicting yourself now because you won't accept Theriot being better than Hardy because of a smaller sample but then raise Braun over Ramirez based on a relatively small sample. You cannot have it both ways ... unless you're looking at things with "homer" glasses. Trust me, I know it's easy to do. I do it often myself. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[treego]

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I didn't factor in Defense, because you didn't ask for it. You asked for hitting and pitching.

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You got me there. I should not have limited the comparison to strictly those two aspects of the game, certainly.

[Ennder]

I disagree quite a bit with your original comparison. I think the two teams are pretty similar in talent with the Brewers having more long term upside.

 

The situational hitting thing is just a matter of when you watch them, earlier in the year the Brewers were getting tons of 2 out hits and winning a lot of games, the Cubs couldnt' buy one. Now the opposite is holding true. Braun has basically the same OPS with runners on and with RISP as he does with nobody on, you just remember the times he doesn't get that RBI.

 

As for Hart, he certainly has more upside than DeRosa who is an average player, I dunno who will end up better this year though.

[strawbossisevil]

Well in Braun's "small sample", he's already hit as many HR as Ramirez has the entire season. So, even if it is a bit of a small sample, I think it's fair to put it in there.

 

With Theriot we have a whole season's worth of statistics to look at. So looking at a hot streak, doesn't give us the big picture of what he is truely capable of doing. All we have from Braun is what he's done since coming up. And I simple used the numbers available. I'm not cherry picking the numbers that makes us look better or worse. Where as you seem to want to cherry pick by limiting the sample on Theriot so it fits your idea of whose better. Evaluating players, one whose on a hot streak vs another who is on a cold streak is rarely fair. If you want to know how they will do going forward, you have to look at the bigger sample.

[treego]

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Hart is far superior to Floyd or DeRosa in every point of his game.

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I just don't see that at all. "Far superior?" Wow! Floyd has been an all-star and is still very dangerous. DeRosa is a terrific athlete that can rip the ball, too. Hart is a very nice player but in no way is he vastly superior to either of these Cubs.

[strawbossisevil]

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I just don't see that at all. "Far superior?" Wow! Floyd has been an all-star and is still very dangerous. DeRosa is a terrific athlete that can rip the ball, too. Hart is a very nice player but in no way is he vastly superior to either of these Cubs.

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He is in OPS, defense, SB. Floyd was an All Star how many years ago? He has like 6 HR on the season to Hart's 15. Floyd in his prime years was a better hitter than Hart is currently, but those prime years have long sense passed. Are we looking at numbers here? Or merely name recognition?

[BrewCityUnit]

Pinella>Yost

[strawbossisevil]

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Pinella>Yost

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Ya got me there. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Pinella rates much lower on the games "Yosted" statistic.

[Ennder]

That starting rotation is due for a collapse too, Marquis is starting to stink and I honestly wouldn't put him in our rotation over any of our guys, Hill has been shaky lately. Lilly is still pitching a little over his head and Marshal well I don't know what to think of him.

[treego]

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How was I biased, all I used was the stats (the facts as they have played out so far this season.)

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Perhaps I was being too judgmental. My apologies. You are using OPS which is an objective statistic. I cannot argue that point. Perhaps, OPS is not always the best way to judge between players. But, I'd have to admit it's about as good a way as there is IF you're looking at only one offensive stat to compare players with.

 

It seems that the Brewers might have some inflated stats based on an early-season burst that seems more fluke than anything at this point. Hardy is one I'm especially thinking of.

 

Cardinals just hit a grand slam and lead the Cubs 6-0 after 5 innings. We can agree that is a good thing, though, I bet! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

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It seems that the Brewers might have some inflated stats based on an early-season burst that seems more fluke than anything at this point. Hardy is one I'm especially thinking of

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And many Cubs have played out of their minds in the past month during their hot streak too. You can't pick and choose stats when comparing things. I don't expect Fontenot to post an .872 OPS on the year, my money is thats down to .750 by the end of the season. Its as inflated as Hardy's for sure.

[1992casey]

If two OPSs are close, you'll want to consider OBP more heavily. If they're sufficiently far apart, there's no real need to go past OPS, at least when considering overall offensive value.

 

To do a good job with this, especially if you're trying to predict what will happen moving forward, it would probably be a good idea to go back to previous seasons, including minor league seasons if necessary. That'll help with sample issues. Age should factor in at some point, too.

[treego]

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And many Cubs have played out of their minds in the past month during their hot streak too. You can't pick and choose stats when comparing things. I don't expect Fontenot to post an .872 OPS on the year, my money is thats down to .750 by the end of the season. Its as inflated as Hardy's for sure.

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I understand your reasoning to be sure. However, we should know Hardy's capabilities better than Fontenot's because Hardy has been in the majors considerably longer than Fontenot. We know Hardy's ceiling a little better than Fontenot's, I believe. So, I'm not sure that any so-called Fontenot inflation is the same as Hardy's early season surge that may be inflating his overall number this season beyond what we can normally expect to see from him. I'm trying to be objective here, trust me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

We have seen Hardy struggle after missing an entire season, seen him post an .800 OPS for half a year, then seen him post a .750 OPS for a month, struggle for a week and miss a season.

 

We really don't know anything about Hardy even with this season included, his stats have just been all over the place with injuries in the middle.

[bsglorydays]

Pinella rates much lower on the games "Yosted" statistic.

 

I'll take Yost over Piniella any day.

 

If people scrutinized the Cubs the way they scrutinize the Brewers, the same people that don't like Yost wouldn't like Piniella either IMO. Same with any other team/manager you want to use. There just isn't that much difference in managers in terms of strategy. There is obviously differences in personalities.

 

People have a tendency to notice moves made by a manager that don't work out and ignore the ones that do. People also tend to hold a manager responsible when things go poorly and give credit to the players when things work.

 

I'm not saying Yost is a great manager, but he sure isn't as bad as some make him out to be. Most importantly, the players respect the heck out of him (at least from everything that has been reported).

[strawbossisevil]

I agree bsglorydays. That was meant to be a joke. I was trying to poke a little fun at those who constantly make fun of Yost. Perhaps I should have put it in blue font. Personally, I see the two coaches as about even.