NL Focus on OF from Sportingnews

[TheBrewer]

 

 

From Sportingnews via Yahoo Sports -- http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=ApcVHYkZrnqtYsWghBDZ4V2FCLcF?slug=focusonoutfieldsnational&prov=tsn&type=lgns

 

 

2. CUBS

LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Felix Pie, RF Kosuke Fukudome.

Thats funny, Soriano is the only sure thing. Pie struggled big time last year, and aside from the hype Kosuke has received, he could be Kaz Matsui for all we know, he hasn't had one major league AB. Theirs alot of potential here if Pie breaks out and Fukudome breaks out, but again that's just potential.. very high IMO to rank them the #2 OF in all of the NL.

 

 

3. DIAMONDBACKS

LF Eric Byrnes, CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton.

Byrnes is a sure bet, and Young did well at almost a 30HR/30SB mark, he does need to improve his OBP and AVG though.. and Upton is a big ??? for at least 08, again all the potential in the world for Young and Upton, but I think it's still a little high in my book. And I expect Byrnes to regress a little.

 

 

4. METS

LF Moises Alou, CF Carlos Beltran, RF Ryan Church.

Alou 41 has trouble staying on the field. If he stays on the field he could be a good one if his age doesn't get to him, Beltran is really the only sure bet here, Church is mediocre..Church has had an OPS of .800+ the past 3 seasons, but he hasn't really broken out completely. This placement for the Mets isn't too bad.

 

 

5. ASTROS

LF Carlos Lee, CF Michael Bourn, RF Hunter Pence.

 

 

Pence is a stud yes, and Lee is a stud yes, but Bourn IMO is a huge wildcard. At best he might hit .285/30SB maybe, but I'm very skeptical of him. Again potential, but I really think this pick at #5 is too high with Bourn being the reason.

 

 

6. BREWERS

LF Ryan Braun, CF Mike Cameron, RF Corey Hart.

 

 

Cameron has lost some range. Though he strikes out too much, he works counts and takes walks. Hart is an emerging talent. Braun moves from third and has to learn a new position, but there is no questioning his bat.

If were going on potential like this writer was with the past 5 teams, Braun is a legit .300/40HR/20SB guy, Cameron is a legit .270/20HR/20SB guy, and Hart has the potential to do .310/30+HR/30+SB. I think the Brewers should be ranked higher than #6 IMO with or without the potential mark on Hart. The Brewers are the only the only team aside from MAYBE the Mets that have 3 regulars that are proven and very very solid if not exceptional, while all the other teams have ??? or are riding on potential way too much IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

7. REDS

LF Adam Dunn, CF Jay Bruce, RF Ken Griffey. Reserves: Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper.

I also wana note that Bruce hasn't had 1 major league AB yet and this OF is 1 behind the Brew Crew?

 

 

 

 

 

9. DODGERS

LF Juan Pierre, CF Andruw Jones, RF Andre Ethier/Matt Kemp. Reserve: Delwyn Young.

 

 

Adding Jones should help a power-starved outfield. Pierre stole 64 bases in 2007 but had the worst on-base plus slugging percentage (.685) among N.L. outfielders.

I also wana say that I think the Dodgers should be ranked higher. While Pierre has a low OBP, Jones should rebound and is proven and can be a stud, and Kemp raked last year and Ethier is very solid.

 

 

My rankings:

 

1. ROCKIES

LF Matt Holliday, CF Willy Taveras, RF Brad Hawpe.

2. BREWERS

LF Ryan Braun, CF Mike Cameron, RF Corey Hart.

3. DODGERS

LF Juan Pierre, CF Andruw Jones, RF Andre Ethier/Matt Kemp.

4. METS

LF Moises Alou, CF Carlos Beltran, RF Ryan Church.

5. ASTROS

LF Carlos Lee, CF Michael Bourn, RF Hunter Pence.

6. DIAMONDBACKS

LF Eric Byrnes, CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton.

7. PHILLIES

LF Pat Burrell, CF Shane Victorino, RF Jayson Werth/Geoff Jenkins.

8. CUBS

LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Felix Pie, RF Kosuke Fukudome.

9. BRAVES

LF Matt Diaz, CF Mark Kotsay, RF Jeff Francoeur.

10. GIANTS

LF Dave Roberts, CF Aaron Rowand, RF Randy Winn.

11. REDS

LF Adam Dunn, CF Jay Bruce, RF Ken Griffey.

12. CARDINALS

LF Chris Duncan, CF Colby Rasmus, RF Rick Ankiel.

13. NATIONALS

LF Wily Mo Pena, CF Lastings Milledge, RF Austin Kearns.

14. MARLINS

LF Josh Willingham, CF Cameron Maybin, RF Jeremy Hermida.

15. PIRATES

LF Jason Bay, CF Nyjer Morgan, RF Xavier Nady.

16. PADRES

LF Scott Hairston, CF Jim Edmonds, RF Brian Giles.

[sbrylski]

I disagree with you about the Dodgers. Pierre will be the worst LFer in the game next season, Jones had a horrible contract season, and Either/Kemp are still young and fairly unpredictable.

 

I can't harp on this guy too much, though the Cubs at #2 is definitely too high. Brewers and Reds could probably both move ahead of the Astros, and I'd say both are at least equal with the Cubs. Really, 1-7 could be jumbled just about any way you want though, and I do think he got those 7 correct. I like the Nats OF potential this season too. They could have three beasts out there if they fufil their potentials.

[Glennron]

I'd personally take the Brewers OF over all but maybe 3 of the other ones. I know Pie is an uber-prospect but he doesn't even have 200 Major League at-bats, and Fukudome has none. For the D'Backs, Byrnes is good but I wouldn't call him anything that great, Young obviously has a lot of talent but needs to vastly improve AVG/OBP(especially), plus Upton is still 20. I actually kind of feel like the Reds got slighted at #7. If Griffey can stay healthy it's basically a guaranteed 60+ home runs out of their corner outfielders.

[TheBrewer]

How is Pierre defensively. I didn't take into account D much because it didnt' seem that the writer did. I said his OBP is low, I think it's .330/.340? so it's not bad, I think because he got the contract everyone now is on Pierre more, but he's a good player, he'll hit .290-.300 and make your team a threat on the bases. Jones did have a bad last season, but even if he just comes back half way he could do a .255/.260/30-35HR potential which is good, maybe not the best for him but nonetheless.. and Ethier and Kemp are still young, but considering the other clubs their more solid bets instead of a guy like Jay Bruce or Upton who have loads of potential but have done squat in the majors.

[nate82]

Didn't the writer contradict himself? If Cameron strikes out to much how is it he works the count deep and takes walks?

[ELCABALLO45]

Soriano = Braun

Cameron > Pie

Hart > Fukudome

[Glennron]

Didn't the writer contradict himself? If Cameron strikes out to much how is it he works the count deep and takes walks?

 

It's possible to both walk a lot and strike out a lot. Just cause you stike out a lot doesn't mean you're jumping at bad pitches and early in the count. Look at guys like Dunn/Howard. (I'm not comparing him to them, just pointing out.) Also, Cameron's P/PA has been at 4 or 4.1 the past 4 seasons, which is pretty good.

[Oldcity]

Man. I'd definitely have the Brewers in the top three.

[Gopher74]

I know Pie is an uber-prospect but he doesn't even have 200 Major Leagueat-bats, and Fukudome has none.

He's really not though. He was a good prospect, I believe toping out at around 50 in the BA top 100. That's very good, don't get me wrong, but certainly not a "uber prospect".

 

Overall, I really think this list is very poor.

 

I think that the Dodgers are about where they should be. They're so stupid, they're going to play Pierre over Kemp and Eithier, or at least one of them because he signed a big deal. Asinine.

The Reds could have a great OF with Bruce, Jr and Dunn. That could be a OF that hits over 110 HR's and drives in 300+ runs.

I also think it's silly that the Astro's are ahead of us. Carlos Lee is really overrated IMO. He's good, but not enough to make them above the Brewers with a CF'er who's really a nobody, a RF'er who had a very good rookie season, but I think exceeded expectations.

 

 

My list

1-Rockies

2-Brewers

3-Reds

4-Mets

5-Cubs

Oh, and as for the D-backs, Upton's a ridiculous talent, but that cartoon character they have in LF is just not that good IMO, and Young has a lot to prove after a very poor BA and OBP as a leadoff hitter. Very talented however.

[Fatter than Joey]

Pierre will be the worst LFer in the game next season,

 

Yeah -- I tried to think of something funny to say, but the thought of Juan Pierre manning a corner OF position made my inner child cry.

 

The Reds could have a great OF with Bruce, Jr and Dunn. That could be a OF that hits over 110 HR's and drives in 300+ runs.

 

Jay Bruce is for real, and while he may not break out in 2008, if he does -- the Reds could easily get the most production out of their OF than any other NL team.

 

Didn't the writer contradict himself? If Cameron strikes out to much how is it he works the count deep and takes walks?

 

It takes 3 pitches to strike out a batter -- A vet like Cameron, isn't going to strike out often on three pitches.

For example -- count when MC strikes out 2007
1-2 55

2-2 51

3-2 35

0-2 19

 

Pitches in Strike out ABs

5 50

4 44

6 29

7+ 19

3 17

2 1

 

2006
Count when he K'd

2-2 50

1-2 41

3-2 33

0-2 18

 

Pitches per AB where he K'd

5 42

4 34

6 28

3 22

7+ 13

1 2

2 1

Career
Count

2-2 488

1-2 449

3-2 333

0-2 215

 

Pitches

5 426

4 403

6 294

3 192

7+ 157

? 15

1 7

2 6

 

I noticed the one and 2 pitch Ks --- This seems to be a glitch in the BR reporting, as I noticed that when another event happens during an AB (like a CS or SB) -- the AB tends to get "split", so I would discard the "1" and "2" pitch K's

 

But you can see, that there is some value when a guy like Cameron K's, because he probably had a 2-2 count and made the pitcher throw 4-6 pitches, just like a walk.

 

Here are his career "pitches when he walks"

5 198

6 193

7+ 162

4 108

 

From a pure pitch count status -- he pretty much sees the same amount of pitches whether he Ks or BBs. He works the count.

[Fatter than Joey]

Just for fun --- here is Johnny Estrada's pitch count when he makes outs.

 

2 338

3 307

1 278

4 241

5 157

7+ 76

6 73

 

So you can see -- that there is some value when Cameron K's -- from a pitch count perspective.

[slack00]

It takes 3 pitches to strike out a batter -- A vet like Cameron, isn't going to strike out often on three pitches.

 

 

Pitches in Strike out ABs

 

5 50

4 44

6 29

7+ 19

3 17

2 1

 

2006

 

Pitches per AB where he K'd

 

5 42

4 34

6 28

3 22

7+ 13

1 2

2 1

I love seeing that Cameron works the count. But I'll take the bait here...who was the umpire when he struck out on 1 and 2 pitches? Enrico Pallazzo?

[JJHardy7]

I think Braun moving to a new position is one of the reasons they're not ranked as high. If he adapts well, I'm sure they'll move up that list. Maybe Cameron not being there for the first 25 games is somehow factored into where they are ranked.

[Fatter than Joey]

I love seeing that Cameron works the count. But I'll take the bait here...who was the umpire when he struck out on 1 and 2 pitches? Enrico Pallazzo?

 

I noticed the one and 2 pitch Ks --- This seems to be a glitch in the BR reporting, as I noticed that when another event happens during an AB (like a CS or SB) -- the AB tends to get "split", so I would discard the "1" and "2" pitch K's

[slack00]

I noticed the one and 2 pitch Ks --- This seems to be a glitch in the BR reporting, as I noticed that when another event happens during an AB (like a CS or SB)

-- the AB tends to get "split", so I would discard the "1" and "2" pitch K's

That makes sense. A lot more than my other theory that Bugs Bunny was the pitcher.

 

Seriously though, great find and great analysis. I agree with what you're saying. Over the course of last season Estrada's one-pitch at bat's were frustrating.

[pitchleague]

a 2 pitch strikeout could, theoretically from the rule book, be when Cameron pinch-hit in the middle of an at-bat and inherited a 1-strike count (it does happen).

[nate82]

What I mean about contradiction is that when sports writers for the most part write about a guy striking out a lot they mean he is whiffing at everything which wouldn't mean he is taking walks. Different definitions I guess. But nice find on the stats though.

[Fatter than Joey]

when sports writers for the most part write about a guy striking out a lot they mean he is whiffing at everything which wouldn't mean he is taking walks.

 

Yeah, this sort of thinking needs a paradigm shift.

 

Generally when batters "work the count" -- they aren't getting walked on 4-5 pitches -- they probably end up getting 2 strikes a lot. Sometimes the pitcher makes a great pitch on a 2-2 or 3-2 count and the batter K's -- but it doesn't make his approach any less solid.

 

On the other hand -- guys like Estrada get praise, because they never strike out, however, they are the ones flailing at everything, and usually are out in 2 pitches.

 

I think DM's theory in getting Cameron is that he will work the count more, and give the Brewers more quality ABs than guys like Mench or Jenkins.

[TerraceReserved]

Huh. My main man Corey doesn't get the respect he deserves. Last year he outperferformed Lee and Soriano, but he's not in the top 5 outfielders.

[homer]

That guy(or is it girl?) has a lot of weight on RBI (right or wrong) so any discussion of Hart will leave him with the shortest straw.

[TheBrewer]

I probably after hearing everyone could've gone higher on the Reds in my prediction, but at the same time I still view Griffey as a liability because he gets injured so much. IMO Dunn is the only sure bet in that OF to last the entire season. and Bruce the minor league player of year in MLB is just that, a minor league player, while I have him on my keeper league fantasy team and won't trade him, it's very unlikely he comes up and does a Ryan Braun impersonation.

[nate82]

I think DM's theory in getting Cameron is that he will work the count more, and give the Brewers more quality ABs than guys like Mench or Jenkins.

This is why the Kendall signing is even bigger than what it looks like. Kendall adds more offense because he takes more pitches than what Estrada did. It makes a lot of sense what DM has done this off season he solidified the back end of the lineup with guys who will work the count. Hopefully this will give us the success that we are all looking for.

[Gopher74]

I think DM's theory in getting Cameron is that he will work the count more, and give the Brewers more quality ABs than guys like Mench or Jenkins.

This is why the Kendall signing is even bigger than what it looks like. Kendall adds more offense because he takes more pitches than what Estrada did. It makes a lot of sense what DM has done this off season he solidified the back end of the lineup with guys who will work the count. Hopefully this will give us the success that we are all looking for.

Great points. The back end of the lineup now has Kendall over Estrada, and hopefully with that, you'll see an OBP from .296 to .340 and if Bill James is right, nearly .370(not likely, however Kendall has a recent history of having a good year, bad year, good year). I'm of the opinion that JJ Hardy is going to see a dramatic rise in his OBP this year, hopefully up to the .350 or so mark. And if we can get OBP's of .350 out of the 7th and 8th spots, Weeks is going to have a lot more chances for RBI's, and with the inevitable breakout season that he's going to experience, he may well be able to push the 75-80 RBI mark.

 

Overall though, I think we should have a much improved OBP.

 

2007 OBP by spot in the lineup/2008 projection

1-.369 Weeks-.390-.400

2-.329 Cameron/Gross/Dillon-.350

3-.362 Prince-.425

4-.382 Braun-.375-.385

5-.312 Hart-.380

6-.323 Hall-.330-.340

7-.306 Hardy-.335-.350

8-.317 Kendall-.345

I think this is pretty telling of just how atrocious we were last year in terms of OBP. You can just see Estrada's fingerprints all over those 5-6-7 spots, can't you?

 

So you remove Mench(.306), Jenkins(.319) and Estrada(.296) and you replace them with Cameron who's been at .353 and .342 2 of the last 3 years and that's playing in Petco Park, the biggest pitchers park in the league now, Kendall who's always been a great OBP catcher, and Dillon and Gross who are both OBP type guys.

 

 

I could see this team being north of .350 for team OBP next year.