Prince Fielder vs. Ryan Howard

[burnzy24]

Found this interesting debate on whose the better slugger, by Jayson Stark on espn.com. Link

 

Most of the people, including Jayson, seem to believe that Prince's weight is the biggest issue. Jayson in the end chooses Howard over Prince. I know I'm a homer, but I have to believe that Prince's drive to be better than his father will motivate him enough to keep his weight from hurting his career. The fact that he is four years younger than Howard, gets more extra-base hits, and strikes out far less I believe gives Prince the advantage.

[TooLiveBrew]

The fact that he is four years younger than Howard, gets more extra-base hits, and strikes out far less I believe gives Prince the advantage.

I think you're onto it right there. What I'd add is Howard had a BABIP in 2006 (58 HR season) of .363. His line that year was .313/.425/.659/1.084. He came back to earth in 2007, with a .336 BABIP... .268/.392/.584/.976. His K rate grew significantly, his BA/OBP/SLG/OPS dropped, all of which should have been expected to some degree with such a high BABIP.

 

(That example is a good comparative tool for what to expect from Braun in 2008, fwiw)

 

Prince hits for a much better BA, and I think that's reflected in his higher total of XBHs & his K rate. Fielder should BB more than 100 times in 2008, and his Ks probably won't grow much - if any. I really think we'll see a 100 BB/120 SO season from Prince this coming year.

 

EDIT: Also of note is that, out of Howard's BBs, a significant portion have been IBBs -

 

2006 - 108 BB/37 IBB

2007 - 107 BB/35 IBB

 

To compare, last season saw Prince with 90 BB/14 IBB. Basically, Prince drew BBs at almost the same rate Howard did, with less than half the IBBs.

 

One last thing on Howard is that his eye at the plate/ability to draw so many BBs came almost out of nowhere. His BB/SO rate at MLB has been much better than it was in the minors. Prince had at least provided some evidence in the minors for expecting that he would reach the kind of BB/SO level he's at now.

[bullox]

Interesting fact from the chat log - Prince won the 'Golden Sledge' award last year for the longest Home Run average, which was 408 ft.

[Ennder]

Howard = Thome, Fielder = Ortiz. That is how I think of them. Howard is going to be a .260 AVG type guy, he just doesn't make enough contact to be higher longterm. Fielder will be at or near .300. Both will have great power but Fielder will probably end up with a shorter career.

[Thurston Fluff]

Just because Prince is big doesn't mean he's fat. I know his first year in baseball they tested his body fat and he tested out to have the lowest body fat % on the team. I know that was a few years ago as a 19 year old but he was considered fat then as well. I'd like to see what his body fat count is vs. Howard just for kicks.

[TooLiveBrew]

If noses can count toward increasing that %, I think Howard 'wins' going away...

[Tbadder]

Fielder is fat. Eventually he will be super-fat. He is also a better player than Howard, but only because of his age. So, for now, fatter is better.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fielder is fat.

 

What analysis have you done beyond watching some games to arrive at that concrete conclusion?

[Tbadder]

He's short and he weighs a lot. Come one--some things are just common sense. Sometimes your eyes can see the truth. I know stats are valuable, but this guy is big and not just big-boned.

[1992casey]

I remember a quote from Jim Powell that went something like this:

Believe me. Prince isn't fat.

He didn't expound.

[PrinceFielder28]

Tbadder I'm getting a feeling you don't like Prince. You have called him fat in both topics on him. Do you have anything of value to add?

[PrinceFielder28]

The last think i would call him is fat. He is built like a house. He is in much better shape than any renound fat guy in MLB could have ever dreamed of being.

[Tbadder]

Fielder is gonna be a five to seven year god in my estimation, and that gives him a ton of value. He's the most valuable player on the team right now, and I love his attitude. He has a relish for the game that most players don't have nowadays and I respect him. But the guy is plain 'ol fat. And I love his fat right now--just not five or six years from now.

[deeswan]

Reading into Stark's column, I don't think the issue with his weight is only about being fat. Obviously there is some worry that he'll become his dad (who got HUGE late in his career), but also that he could end up with leg/knee problems because of the weight he carries on a smaller frame than Howard.

[Ennder]

It is always hard for me to tell with Fielder. He certainly isn't a beer belly type of guy like say a David Wells. He is probably carrying some extra weight but I doubt he'd qualify as obese or fat from a technical standpoint.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's short and he weighs a lot. Come one--some things are just common sense.

I knew it would be this well-researched.

 

[Fielder] certainly isn't a beer belly type of guy like say a David Wells. He is probably carrying some extra weight but I doubt he'd qualify as obese or fat from a technical standpoint.

 

Bingo.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm sure Todd Greene has a pretty technical idea of how fat and squishy Prince is or isn't

[Patrick425]

It's interesting that this is being brought up considering that Howard is asking $10mil in arbitration compared to the $7mil number the Phillies put on the table. Not sure where and how to look this up, but my guess is that it may be the largest figure ever asked for in arbitration (by a lot), and it makes me wonder what Prince will ask for when his time comes.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sure Todd Greene has a pretty technical idea of how fat and squishy Prince is or isn't.

 

http://graphics.jsonline.com/graphics/sports/brew/img/may06/xbruise504.jpg

 

He would know, but he doesn't remember

[JJ Hardy Har Har]

Just because Prince is big doesn't mean he's fat. I know his first year in baseball they tested his body fat and he tested out to have the lowest body fat % on the team. I know that was a few years ago as a 19 year old but he was considered fat then as well. I'd like to see what his body fat count is vs. Howard just for kicks.

 

We need to see a source for this, because it's just pure BS. My extremely educated guess (extensive background in physiology) is that he has 20% or higher body fat. Guys like Rickie Weeks are certain to be under 10%, probably closer to 8%. A guy like Gabe Kapler is a freak at 6-7% (5% in his prime).

 

Prince is fat, but it doesn't mean he can't be fit. Though the "fittest" people on Earth are extremely low in body fat (elite marathoners and triathletes for example), it is entirely possible to be fat and fit. I use myself as an example. I am a marathoner and triathlete who is realistically in the top 5% of the population in fitness levels, but guess what... I'm about 10% fat. The fat you could pinch on me, is a fraction of the fat you can pinch on Prince. The guy is stressing his joints and bones, and if he doesn't trim down, will have a short career.

[TooLiveBrew]

With Todd Greene in mind, this is the best pic I've seen of that play, esp. since it captures Koskie trying to score behind Prince -

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/x-png/d83258699d85a315292e98e32e534bdad85fa73.x-png

 

And this is the 'should've know it'd happen eventually' clue we had back from Huntsville...

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/pjpeg/32615d95883528e6c30add286d45366bce347f9.pjpg

 

[Big Reed]

I believe Prince is a better hitter than Howard. but I also believe because prince is a more disciplined hitter, howard will swing for the fences more and end up with more home runs. I know prince is using his father as motivation. he wants to be better than his dad. but what happens if they reconcile? or what happens once Prince proves he's better than his dad? what will be his motivation then? Like many, I fear that Prince's weight may turn into a problem and shorten his career just like it did his dad. I'm not going to call prince fat. but i fear after a couple of MVP's and 7 more great seasons, prince might put on a few extra pounds by age 32 , and his motivation to stay on a strick diet and exercise program at that age might not be what it is today. With that said, I think howard will have the longer career, but not better one.

 

I've often compared Prince to Frank Thomas. Their hitting ability is about the same, and their fielding ability is about the same. Comparing prince to Big Poppy is a good comparison as well.

[kramnoj]

I swear I saw Prince practically do the splits at least once last year to get to a ball thrown off-course. I'm sure people have different definitions of fat, but I wouldn't call anyone who did what he did fat.

 

Certainly he has gained weight, and not all of it muscle. He will eventually need to change his lifestyle to stay a productive major leaguer. I'm sure Boras will start to persuade Prince of that when he feels it will be necessary.

[Gopher74]

It is always hard for me to tell with Fielder. He certainly isn't a beer belly type of guy like say a David Wells. He is probably carrying some extra weight but I doubt he'd qualify as obese or fat from a technical standpoint.

Actually, from a technical standpoint, I'm sure you're right. If you go by the Doctor's charts, I'm sure he would be fat. I remember when I was wrestling in college, I was wrestling at 174, and in the off-season I'd weight about 200 pounds. I went to the Doctor for a physical, and they weighed me and did the whole chart thing. They told me that for my size, which is little over 5'11, that I was suppose to weight 160 to be at a "healthy weight". The problem was, I had to get a medical clearance to get down to 174 because that was considered an unhealthy body fat through the NCAA testing guidelines in which they take a hydrostatic body fat test and you're only allowed to go down to 4.5 pct fat with informed consent, and 6 pct without it. I could also get into how ridiculous it is when you hear that Donald Driver, or whoever is 2 pct body fat, but I won't. Let me just say that those numbers are ridiculous.

 

My point here? You can't just look at someone and say this guy is fat because of what he weighs and how tall he is. I honestly don't know how "fat" Prince is, but he's a wide guy so most people just automatically go to the "he's fat" comment. It's kinda silly.

[SmartBall]

I am definitely concerned about Prince's weight going forward, and I am in the camp that believes he could lose 15 or 20 pounds and it would only help him, but Prince is built like a monster. Going back to the Stark argument, I understand his concern about Prince but I couldn't believe a similar argument wasn't made against Howard, he isn't small either, and I don't buy Stark's Ortiz=Howard argument. Over the next 8 years I take Prince, but he is going to have to address his body if he wants to be successful longer than that.