Expectations 2007 vs 2008

[Ennder]

I've been a bit surprised lately that quite a few people seem to think this team will take a step back this season. Now I personally like what we have done this offseason overall but I can understand not everyone agrees with that. What I find most surprising is that going into last season most people projected us at 82-87 wins, very few people seemed to think we'd be under .500 last year. I predicted 83 wins myself (I RULE!) and this year as it stands I'm predicting 88 wins for the Brewers this year. I just wanted to take a position by position look at the team going into last year vs into this year to compare the expectations of 2007 vs those of 2008.

 

C - Estrada/Miller vs Kendall/Munson - Advantage 2007.

 

I expected a lot more out of Estrada than we got, he can be a pretty productive hitter when healthy but it is pretty obvious at this point from 2005 and 2007 that he just does not do well when he has your normal aches and pains of being a C. My expectations for Kendall are pretty low though I bet he matches what Estrada actually did in 2007.

 

1B - Fielder vs Fielder - Advantage 2008.

 

I really did expect a big year out of Fielder last year but obviously I'm much more comfortable with him coming off the absolutely huge year he had last year.

 

2B - Weeks vs Weeks - Advantage 2008.

 

Going into 2007 I was really worried about Weeks. Wrist injuries tend to linger a year and I'm not a big Graffanino fan so didn't want to see him playing any more than he had to. Going into 2008 I'm much happier with Weeks, the wrist seems healthy and he had the huge last couple months that has me expecting better things out of him.

 

SS - Hardy vs Hardy - Advantage 2008.

 

Going into 2007 I still liked Hardy but I was more than a little worried about the injury situation. He had only really shown 2-3 months of decent hitting in the majors. While I don't think he'll match his HR totals from last year I'm much more optimistic about Hardy going into 2008 than I was going into 2007.

 

3B - Counsell/Graffanino (maybe Braun?) vs Hall - Advantage 2008.

 

I thought 3B had the potential to be a disaster last year, we either had no bat playing there or a rookie who i thought would hit decently and field poorly. Going into 2008 I personally expect a bounceback from Hall. Not to 2006 levels but to 2005 levels which is still about what I would have expected at 3B offensively going into last season. I have higher hopes for his defense at 3B than I had in Braun going into last year.

 

RF - Hart vs Hart - Advantage 2008

 

I liked Hart going into last year but a mostly full season with very strong production just makes me like him more this year.

 

CF - Hall vs Cameron - Push.

 

I thought Hall would be adequate in CF, he wasn't as good as I expected. I also expected him to hit pretty decently last year. Cameron is a defensive upgrade over what I expected in Hall in 2008 but I'm not sure how productive that spot will be in the 25 games he missed so it becomes a push for me.

 

LF - Menchkins vs Braun - Advantage 2008.

 

I expect Braun to be adequate defensively in LF and he is a big upgrade over Menchkins offensively going into the season.

 

Bullpen - Cordero, Wise, Turnbow, Shouse, Aquino, Dessens, Villanueva vs Gagne, Riske, Torres, Shouse, Turnbow, Mota, Bush/Capuano/Villaneuva/Vargs - Advantage 2008

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm worried about Gagne as the closer but going into last year it felt like Cordero and then question marks to me. Shouse was coming off his first just ok season, Turnbow was coming off a terrible season. Wise faded again in the second half. Dessens and Aquino are well, fodder. This year I just think the bullpen is a lot deeper. It is also deeper in the minors with McClung, Stetter and even Bray or Pena all ready for the majors.

 

Rotation - Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Suppan, Vargas vs Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Cappuano, Villanueva - Advantage 2008.

 

Sheets has gone another year without an arm related injury so I like him more in 2008. Even with the loss streak my opinion on Capuano hasn't really changed much. Suppan is the same guy as going into last year. Gallardo is a big upgrade over anything we had going into last year. Villanueva is an upgrade over Vargas. Im' much happier with this rotation than last years and I think the depth looks even better than it did last year.

 

Other than C I like this team as much or more at every single position than I did the team going into last year. I just think this is a much stronger team and I'm going be shocked if we don't win at least 3 or 4 more games than we did last year barring some massive injury problems.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ennder, You're right that this team should win 3 or 4 more games. The problem is that leaves them with 86-87 wins which won't be enough. The Cubs played .580 ball over the last 100 games. Translate over a full season, that's 94 wins. Last year at this time, they were coming off of a last place finish. Now they have everyone back, a manager that knows his team, and they've added a little here and there (and are still looking for more). The opportunity to "steal" a division with 85-87 wins doesn't come along every year.

 

The hope (as it always is) rests with the health of one Ben Sheets. If he ever made 33 or 34 starts, this could be a 92-95 win team. But we're more skeptical than ever about that happening based on what we saw in 07.

 

We've also now seen Yost in a pennant race, and that doesn't make us too confident either.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Cubs played .580 ball over the last 100 games. Translate over a full season, that's 94 wins.

 

The Brewers were 24-10 in the first month. Translate that... You just can't say that the Cubs are for sure going to play .580 ball based on games from last season. Too much changes from year to year to make that assumption.

 

Now they have everyone back, a manager that knows his team, and they've added a little here and there

Fukudome, Lieber... ? Their SP is not as good as ours, their defense is better than ours (but not by nearly as much as '07), and their offense can hardly carry our offense's jock. Both teams will be around 90 wins, and it'll come down to the head-to-head matchups yet again imo.

[fondybrewfan]

I dont think the Cubs will get anywhere near 94 wins, but that is just my opinion. Not a whole lot of their guys are young anymore and there were some overachievers. The Cubs are a good team but I dont think they are 94 win good. I would guess around 86-88 just like the Brewers. I also think the Reds are around 82-84 wins, The Astros around 75, the Cards around 70-72 and the Pirates around 76-78.

[Ennder]

I don't think the Cubs are anywhere close to a 94 win team and right now I will be putting them in 2nd place in the division unless they make another move. Fukudome isn't really an upgrade over what they had last year most likely, Lieber isn't an upgrade to anything but depth. Pie is more likely a downgrade at CF than an upgrade so that pretty much leaves Soto as their only upgrade on the year. They also stayed extremely healthy on the year last year. I havent' sat down and really worked on my predictions yet since it is too early just yet but I find it hard to believe I'd give the Cubs 88 wins right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

Until we see him I don't think we can assume Fukudome isn't an upgrade. The Cubs certainly think he is. He's replacing Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd, so it's not a stretch to think he's better than them. We do know he's better defensively.

 

Soto should be better than what they got out of Barrett and Kendall. He could be a lot better.

 

It could be argued both Soriano and Lee underachieved last year. Sure they're both over 30, but still capable of monster years.

 

Other than perhaps Lilly, by a small margin, I don't think any of their starters overachieved last year. Zambrano's certainly capable of better numbers.

 

Their pen remains solid and deep with few question marks. Marmol's stuff is electric.

 

Uncle Lou isn't what he was, but Yost isn't in his class.

 

Look, they're not unbeatable but I think nationally they are seen as clear favorites. Can a case be made for the Brewers? No question. But as much as I want to say the Brewers are the best, it all comes down to the health of Ben Sheets in my mind, and even with no arm problems he misses games and that bothers me more than anything.

[nate82]

You have to remember that during the end of the season the Cubs started to fall apart again. It was evident in the playoffs that the Cubs were falling apart. If we wouldn't have lost those games in Atlanta that we should have won it would have been the Brewers winning the division and not the Cubs. Unfortunately the ball didn't bounce correctly and we couldn't pull off the wins when we needed to.

 

But this year I don't see why the Brewers couldn't win 90-95 games. Even if Sheets goes down we still have help in the form of Bush and Vargas. Which is a lot better than what we had last year to fill in for Sheets. With Gallardo having a lot of experience in the bigs I can see him winning 15 or more games this year. The only real question mark is at the closer spot. Which to me is not that important, a closer doesn't really affect a game as much as defense and hitting does. The downfall of the Brewers last year was their defense. This year the team has improved defensively and the bullpen is extremely better than what is was last year.

 

Now I can't see how you give the edge over last years catching core. This years catchers are a lot better than what we had last year. Miller really was the only good catcher we had on the team. I truly believe that Estrada was a cancer to the team. Kendall will be better offensively than Estrada he won't hit as many home runs but we really don't need home runs from the catchers position. Kendall brings a real #8 hitter to the Brewers. We didn't have a #8 hitter last year we had a couple of guys who could be hitting anywhere but in the 8th spot. Kendall will be the quiet addition to the Brewers that will put us over the hump that we couldn't get over last year.

[Ennder]

Cubs RF's hit .293, .375, .419, .794 last year.

 

That is a higher OBP than I expect out of Fukudome but a slightly lower SLG. He is probably a better fielder than that. He does have health questions though and those stats are probably the same or better than Murton (his backup) will bring. I just don't see this as a big upgrade for them. He does a great job of replacing what they lost in that position though.

 

I don't really care what people think nationally, nationally the Cardinals were still being projected in 1st place by a lot people last year and some places still had the Brewers in 4th place. It always takes longer for a non large market team to get recognition. I personally feel the Brewers have upgraded a lot more than the Cubs this offseason is all my point was. The Cameron signing alone outpaces all of the Cubs changes combined because of the defensive shifts it created. That is roughly 3-4 wins on defense just with that one move.

Now I can't see how you give the edge over last years catching core

 

I was talking about expectations going into 2007 and then expectations going into 2008. My expectations going into 2007 had Estrada and Miller both playing better than they actually did. My point was that if everyone thought we had an 82+ win team going into last yaer it baffles me that some people have LOWER expectations now than they did going into last season.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's replacing Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd, so it's not a stretch to think he's better than them. We do know he's better defensively.

We certainly don't "know" that he's better defensively - Jones was not bad at all. He's likely better than Floyd with the leather, though. I don't see how he's replacing both Jones & Floyd, either. It's not like they were platoon-partners.

 

It could be argued both Soriano and Lee underachieved last year. Sure they're both over 30, but still capable of monster years

Lee underachieved, perhaps. Soriano? I can't see how you could make that argument convincingly. All he did was miss time - the rest of his year is pretty much in line with career norms.

 

Zambrano's certainly capable of better numbers.

 

Agreed, but his numbers have been gradually moving in the wrong direction (& obv. continued to do so in '07)

 

Their pen remains solid and deep with few question marks. Marmol's stuff is electric.

 

The pen is most likely better than ours, to be sure. Marmol has crazy stuff, but he apparently doesn't have good control over it. As Ennder will remind us, his BB/9 rate in the second half was over 5 - Turnbow territory (and you could say the same about TBow's stuff - electric). We'll see if he can regain a nominal amount of control, but he's BB'd guys since the minors.

 

Look, they're not unbeatable but I think nationally they are seen as clear favorites.

That's fine - I find it hard to believe that national pundits know nearly as much as we do about both the Cubs & Brewers.

 

it all comes down to the health of Ben Sheets in my mind, and even with no arm problems he misses games and that bothers me more than anything.

 

I'd have to study this more - at first glance I think I agree with you, but I don't know how much not having him (hypothetically at this point) for 8-ish starts would/wouldn't affect the overal W-L... especially since the SP depth this year is even better than last year's.

[ILuvDaBush]

I just hope that Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart live up to my expectations for them this year. As for the pennant race last year, I think it was quite clear we succumbed to "Tortoise and the Hare" Syndrome. I even got caught up in it myself, believing there was no way the North Siders would be within a five game breath of my Beloved Brewz. This year, we will haven ace with no health question looming over his head, as well as an apprentice ace. We will have a truly healthy Weeks... And honestly, our bullpen is going to be BETTER than last year. If anything, this year is going to hinge on the BACK end of the rotation (Bush/Villy/Soup/Cappy) and the production from our outfield. If Braun continues his slumpless ways, Corey continues to wear his wrist guard, and Jr. Gwynny "rakes"...or they dress Mike Cameron up in Jr. Gwynny's duds, then I think we could approach the 95-100 plateau. I would think Prince and Sheets/Yo would be our foundation for success, and, thus, beyond reproach.

[rluzinski]

I don't think Sheet's health is nearly as impoirtant as ait has been in year's past. The Brewers actually have some reasonably depth in the starting pitching department. Comparing two scenarios (I'll try to be conservative):

 

Projected IP and ERA

 

Scenario 1:

Sheets: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA

 

Scenario 2:

Sheets: 150 IP, 3.75 ERA

Backup Starter: 50 IP, 4.75 ERA

 

In scenario 2, the Brewers give up about 6 extra runs, which is a around half a win. I know that they were be some other auxilliary effects (thin bullpen for one) but we are probably talking about around 1 or 2 less wins on the high end. Not saying that's insignificant but it wouldn't be a deal breaker, either. I think the Brewers will get at least 150 from Sheets but I'm hoping for 175+.

 

I also don't think the Cubs project anywhere near 94 wins, whether or not they finished off strong last year. I don't think you'll see any projections anywehre near that for them. And while I can see someone projecting the Cubs as better than the Brewers, it's not much of a difference. Flip a coin, as far as I am concerned.

[Tbadder]

I was pretty pessimistic about the Crew's chances until they moved Braun off of third. Now, I'm starting to think the other way. the reasons?

 

1. Improved defense. I assume we'll be better everywhere on the diamond except LF. Even subtle improvement by Hardy, Weeks, and Fielder should make us more solid and more confident.

2. My fav move of the off-season was the hiring of Simmons. He'll have Yost's ear, and in combination with what I assume is melvin's short leash (witness comments from Doug like, "yes, and each of the new bullpen acquistions can go two innings) might force Ned to improve.

3. We're so young that we'll naturally improve.

4. Depth. I've never see so much of it as a Brewer fan. It's gotta help over the rough spots.

5. Clubhouse leadership. I think Fielder wants to win really, really, badly. I think he's respected and he's gonna bring some guys along. Kendall will help here. Hart is another guy who impresses me that way. He doesn't always look smooth, but he puts his foot to the metal.

 

I think number one is worth 2 or 3 games, while 2 thru 5 another 1 or 2 games.

 

The only way that the Cubs are better now is if Fuku is a total stud. So right now I got the Brewers ekeing out the division title.

[Gopher74]

Until we see him I don't think we can assume Fukudome isn't an upgrade. The Cubs certainly think he is. He's replacing Jacque Jones and Cliff

Floyd, so it's not a stretch to think he's better than them. We do know he's better defensively.

 

Soto should be better than what they got out of Barrett and Kendall. He could be a lot better.

Wait, I just did a double take on that. We're suppose to assume a guy who's never played a game in the big leagues yet is going to have an OPS over .800? I'm just curious, but what do the Cubs do to deserve this optimistic outlook on all of their question marks, and the Brewers such a negative?

I mean, when we have a guy like Soto who's really been poor for two years in AAA before a obscene BABIP led to great numbers there last year, then it's "well, lets see what he does after a full season", but when the Cubs do, then he's an upgrade without a second thought, and possibly a huge one.

 

 

 

[trwi7]

For those wondering about Soto.

2005 in Iowa- .332 BABIP, .089 ISOP .253/.357/.342/.699

2006 in Iowa- .332 BABIP, .114 ISOP .272/.347/.386/.733

2007 in Iowa- .409 BABIP, .299 ISOP .349/.418/.648/1.066

[Gopher74]

For those wondering about Soto.

 

 

 

 

2005 in Iowa- .332 BABIP, .089 ISOP .253/.357/.342/.699

 

2006 in Iowa- .332 BABIP, .114 ISOP .272/.347/.386/.733

 

2007 in Iowa- .409 BABIP, .299 ISOP .349/.418/.648/1.066.

Let us not forget his "slightly" above average BABIP in the big leagues last year at .474.

 

[trwi7]

Let us not forget his "slightly" above average BABIP in the big leagues last year at .474.

It was actually .486 in the big leagues this year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[JohnBriggs12]

Wow, everyone now questioning Fukudome would be dancing in the streets had the Brewers signed him. I guess all of you now are smarter than most scouts.

 

Look, I'm far from the only one who thinks the Cubs are going to be good. Granted a lot of Cub fans visit Vegas every year, but Cubs are odds on favorites not just to win the division but the NL.

 

I'm not trying to rain on everyone's parade, but I think some of our enthusiasm has to be tempered with the reality that it's not going to be a walk in the park. The Cubs, even without an owner basically, have shown they will spend whatever it takes and they do have young players they can deal. Not only that, they have the confidence that comes from winning the division last year and deep down the Brewers are going to have doubts until they actually do it.

 

All that is not that easy to overcome.

[Ennder]

Wow, everyone now questioning Fukudome would be dancing in the streets had the Brewers signed him

 

I'd be saying we had a big question mark in RF if we signed him. He could be a monster, he could be a bust, who knows. He has to be at least a little better than league average or he is a downgrade to them.

I'm not trying to rain on everyone's parade, but I think some of our enthusiasm has to be tempered with the reality that it's not going to be a walk in the park

 

nobody thinks it is, we just don't assume that every risky player on the Cubs is going to have some huge year at the same time. Tempering expectations is expecting Fukudome to not be a monster his first year in the majors, tempering expectations is assuming Soto will take some time to adjust like 95% of all C's do in the majors.

 

I said this earlier in the year in another thread but it seems like most of the pessimistic crowd assumes the Cubs young players will all be stars this year and the Brewer's young players will all regress. That doesn't really make much sense but that is the tone of the posts that I see. So sure if you assume every rookie/sophomore Cub has a great year and all the Brewer players slide back of course it looks like we are a 2nd place team, that just probably isn't the reality.

[Gopher74]

Let us not forget his "slightly" above average BABIP in the big leagues last year at .474.

It was actually .486 in the big leagues this year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=sotoge01&year=2007

 

Baseballreference has him at .474. Either way, it was incredibly inflated, and should be at least 150 points lower next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wait, I just did a double take on that. We're suppose to assume a guy who's never played a game in the big leagues yet is going to have an OPS over .800?

...

Let us not forget his "slightly" above average BABIP in the big leagues last year at .474.

 

Confused here... clarify?

[homer]

Two different guys, TLB - first sentence for Fukudome and second for Soto

[danzig6767]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

I'm not trying to rain on everyone's parade, but I think some of our enthusiasm has to be tempered with the reality that it's not going to be a walk in the park.

Has anyone here said the Brewers will win the division with ease, much less everyone saying this?

I think the vast majority of Brewers fans think the Brewers and Cubs are pretty even and clearly the best two teams in the division. That it should be a close race and likely the division should be decides by a few games either way. That's awfully far from everyone thinking the division will be a walk in the park for the Brewers and the Cubs are crap.

 

[logan82]

rluzinski wrote:

And while I can see someone projecting the Cubs as better than the Brewers, it's not much of a difference. Flip a coin, as far as I am concerned.

It was practically a coin flip last year. Cordero closing out one game instead of giving up a walk off homer.

[Gopher74]

Wait, I just did a double take on that. We're suppose to assume a guy who's never played a game in the big leagues yet is going to have an OPS over .800?

...

Let us not forget his "slightly" above average BABIP in the big leagues last year at .474.

 

Confused here... clarify?

Two different posts.

 

The post in which I was talking about BABIP was in response to a post by Trwi talking about Soto's BABIP the last three years in Iowa. He even says Soto.

 

For those wondering about Soto.

Respectfully, I'm not certain what you're confused about.

 

 

 

[pete]

One reason is that I think they underperformed last year, or perhaps it would be better stated that troubles along the way with SP and BP threw things off. I guess you say pretty much the same thing by describing the SP and BP as better. I'd be surprised if the starting rotation works out like you project though. Might make a good prediction thread.

 

C: I think Estrada was better than one would expect given the howling and hatred directed at the guy. I was struck by how much better he looked at the beginning of the year though, when I watched a Brewers classic game recently. Was he a cancer? I guess he could have been but what is the evidence of that? The weird scuffle in the dugout? I wonder if someone will write a book in a decade or so and tell the truth. I was surprised by Kendall's career numbers after he was signed. They aren't that bad and he seems like an intelligent player if nothing else. I wonder how the fans who were tormented by the low percentage of runners gunned down will accept more of the same. Things could be a little better or worse. It'll be interesting to see who gets number two catcher.

 

Weeks: I'm hopeful as well, especially after how great he was after returning from Nashville. I wonder why he was so very different after returning. Not only did he hit the ball better, but he laid off the exact pitches he would wave at earlier in the year. But why was he so much better? One, it could have been general improvement in wrist health, but that doesn't seem likely to me, as it was such a big change and he never really got a rest did he? Two, it could have shaken him up and been sort of a wake up call. Three, he got coaching in Nashville from Kremblas or the hitting coach down there that got to him somehow. Four, something else?

 

CF: I think Billy played far better by the end of the year than the beginning, but having a great glove in center is a big plus. All the more important when you have a new LF. I heard an interview with him on the radio, and he seemed like a pretty good guy. It'll be interesting to see how much the change from Petco to Miller helps him offensively.

 

LF: I think Braun could maintain his offense or even notch it up. It could go the other way though. When he had his mini-slump last year was right when there was constant yakking about the ROY and comparisons were being made to the greats of baseball history. Now he'll be playing a new position that isn't as easy as some make it out to be. His achilles heel at 3rd was overthrowing when he had a lot of time. That won't be solved by changing position. On top of that he's going to bounce around the batting order and Yost has already talked to him about improving his pitch selection. Good grief. I suppose he didn't achieve what he has so far without dealing with a lot, but there is potential for trouble. I suppose if he doesn't do as well, it will be declared to be a natural regression.

 

I agree with much else that you say, but those were the thoughts that jumped out at me.