How good is Troy Tulowitzki

[Robideaux]

I got in to a debate with Tangotiger over at The Book about this subject. His claim was that relative to contract, over the next 5 years Tulo will be the "most valuable young player" in baseball. I realize that Tulowitzki's defense, according to most metrics, is beyond reproach, but I just can't get past his huge home/road splits.

 

Career at Coors:

.317/.382/.527 with a .370 BABIP

Career on the Road:

.250/325/.381 with a .294 BABIP

 

Even if we allow that his road BABIP might be somewhat unlucky, even if it was more like .310 on the road, he is not the offensive juggernaut that he appears to be. I guess my question for those more statistically inclined than myself is this: Is is fair to simply double his road split and theorize that that is his normative offensive baseline up to this point? Is that overcompensating? Thanks.

 

Not sure what happened with the formatting?

 

 

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(Formatting fixed, I think. --1992)

[Ennder]

We won't know for another year which is why the contract is so risky. First off I don't believe the defense will stay as good as it was last year. I also expect the offense to fall off quite a bit.

 

Coors does tend to mess up players road stats too. He won't be as bad as those road splits somewhere else but he would lose a ton of offensive value playing in another park anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

The funny thing with Tulo is that what looks to have skewed his home split the most (perhaps not, perhaps Coors Field still outweighs this...) is that BABIP. I hadn't seen that it was that extreme. If anything, his road production will probably improve with his home production tailing off.

[rluzinski]

They'll tell you not to throw away half the data (his home split) just because you think it's tainted. We have a rough idea how parks effect performance, so we should adjust that, if necessary, not just discard it.

 

If you took a random player that you knew nothing about and he put up the rookie season that he did, I think you'd see Tango and the gang be just as skeptical as you. But because we know he isn't just some random joe, they are more confident in believing that Tulo's performance in 2007 was representative of his true talent.

 

I think we what we all are guilty of is not appreciating how valuable even average offense at a premium defense position is really worth. That said, I'll have to see more from Tulo before anointing him a perennial gold golver with an above average stick.

[dlk9s]

We won't know for another year which is why the contract is so risky. First off I don't believe the defense will stay as good as it was last year. I also expect the offense to fall off quite a bit.

I'm not sure why you think his defense will fall off. Yeah, maybe it won't be bordering on perfection like it was this past season, but I would assume he'll still be a gold glove candidate for many years. I can't remember seeing someone not named Sax or Knoblauch have their defensive skills decline while still young. Age and injuries slow guys down, but I don't see why Tulo won't be a superior defender for many years to come.

 

[Ennder]

We won't know for another year which is why the contract is so risky. First off I don't believe the defense will stay as good as it was last year. I also expect the offense to fall off quite a bit.

I'm not sure why you think his defense will fall off. Yeah, maybe it won't be bordering on perfection like it was this past season, but I would assume he'll still be a gold glove candidate for many years. I can't remember seeing someone not named Sax or Knoblauch have their defensive skills decline while still young. Age and injuries slow guys down, but I don't see why Tulo won't be a superior defender for many years to come.

 

 

One year of defensive statistics just isn't a big enough sample. Quite a few guys come up and have great 1st years defensively and trail off, quite a few stink their first year and improve a ton. In his case the numbers are so extreme that I expect them to regress towards average, just like I'd expect Braun to regress the other way towards average.

[futurefan]

I watched at least 15 Rockies games and the best thing about their defense was the official scorekeeper. I saw at least 2 plays from Tulo that would have been errors at any other ballpark called hits. Balls running up the arm and causing a late throw to first is a hit? No doubt he is an outstanding defensive SS but not as good as the metrics show. And he can hit without scorekeepers help.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think his defense in 2007 was a fluke -- He may not have as high as a fielding pct. in 2008, but I think he will be in the very top echelon of SS's in MLB. As I mentioned in another post, with his next HR he will become the Rockies career leader in HRs by a SS. Shortstops that can hit 25 HRs and be one of the top fielding players in the game, do not grow on trees -- and probably end up in Cooperstown -- Like Russ says, it's way to early to give Tulo that sort of credit, but if he continually puts up numbers similar to 2007, he will accumulate a lot of MLB trophies.

 

If he can play SS as well as he did in 2007, and get 25 jacks a year, I dont care if he gets 20 at home and 5 on the road -- that makes him incredibly valuable.

[Tbadder]

I like the look of his frame--he's got that sinewy strength, a judo body. He reminds me of Yount in his movements. That combination of flexibility and strength I think bodes well for a long term career. I don't think the contract was a risk, but I do think it was totally unnecessary.

[joepepsi]

2007:

Tulow: .291/.359/.479

Hardy: .277/.323/.463

 

 

Hardy on the road: .276/.316/.452

Tulow on the road: .256/.327/.393

 

Hardy is about 2 years older and has 300+ more plate appearances. Tulo put up better minor league numbers on offense, so it's reasonable to suggest he will be the better hitter. But given their major league careers so far it's not a foregone conclusion.

 

Furthermore, the differences is defense between a quality a ss like Hardy and maybe a great ss as Tulo is purported to be, is probably not that big of a deal. So at this point I think it's too early to make any statement like, over the next 5 years Tulo will be the "most valuable young player" in baseball. There are a tremendous amount of very good young players in the majors right now. I hesitate to pick one who's value is largely linked to the inflated numbers of his home ballpark.

 

Personally, I'd rather take my chances with Hardy and Weeks than Tulo and Jayson Nix.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is it reasonable to assert that his BABIP at home, as opposed to Coors Field itself, played the biggest role in his success there? Coors is great for hitters and all, but a .370 BABIP is really high.

[DrWood]

I don't know how anyone can assert that he'd be the most valuable player "relative to his contract" when there are always young $400,000 players that excel.

[rluzinski]

I don't know how anyone can assert that he'd be the most valuable player "relative to his contract" when there are always young $400,000 players that excel.

 

Defensively, he was arguable the best at the hardest position as a rookie. He also had good offense numbers. That's not very common at all.

[jazzytrav]

I don't know how anyone can assert that he'd be the most valuable player "relative to his contract" when there are always young $400,000 players that excel.

Because at this point in his career he is being "overpaid", but if you consider what he would have made in his last couple years of arby and in free agency (I believe a year or two were bought out, correct?) then he will be vastly underpaid during those years...assuming he performs at least equal to his performance last season.

[joepepsi]

He has a long way to go to beat out Grady Sizemore as most valuable young player.

[brettac1]

I watched at least 15 Rockies games and the best thing about their defense was the official scorekeeper. I saw at least 2 plays from Tulo that would have been errors at any other ballpark called hits. Balls running up the arm and causing a late throw to first is a hit? No doubt he is an outstanding defensive SS but not as good as the metrics show. And he can hit without scorekeepers help.

 

Looking at errors/FPCT isn't how he's being evaluated by Tango. There's a lot more to it than that, in fact, I don't think I ever look at the number of errors a guy made when looking at defense. It's the number of balls he gets to. He's an incredible SS, and he has been since he was at LBSU. I think the metrics will grade him around where he was last year all the way through his peak years. And I have no doubt that he'll hit on the road.

[pete]

is a tall order. More relevant questions would be whether he is highly valuable and whether he matched or outplayed his contract. I really enjoy watching him play and think he is a great talent. Having said that, his defense isn't flawless. He takes a poor line to the ball sometimes although he is usually able to use his arm to overcome it. He definitely had more errors than were scored. One in particular I remember was an easy ball he booted in game 163 that wasn't scored an error.

If you really want to be un-PC, you could bring up the fact that the Rockies grow their infield grass longer than most. That's a significant benefit to fielders and a detriment to hitters, some more than others. It would be interesting if his defensive stats had an unbalanced home/road split.