Who will be the biggest dissapointment in 2008?

[lukevan]

With an improved defense and pitching, i doubt the brewers will come close to hitting as many homers as they did last year. they won't need as many homers to win games.

 

Zuh? How is that going to make a difference? I don't think you'll see Braun swing any less hard just because we're up by a couple runs.

 

I guess we'll lose about 10 HR from Estrada to Kendall and about 6-10 from Menchkins to Cameron, though Cameron could put up better numbers playing in Miller Park instead of San Diego. I think we may have a few less HR this season (still near league lead) but I don't think they'll be far behind the 07 squad. I think we can expect conservatively an OBP improvement of about .030 from each position however, which should offset any lack of homers.

[Big Reed]

luke van, have yo u ever noticed a tea m - other tha n the brewers that has it's ace pitcher on the mound and they are cruising, 4-1, how quickly his team plays to get the game over? if beckett is on the mound, you don't see big poppy or manny trying to hit 3 more homers and make it a 10-1 game. They just bat quietly, and they win 4-1.

 

The big problem with the brewers last year was that a 4-1 lead was never safe, so the brewers would hit homers to catch up.

 

That's why i say with an improved defense and pitching, you will see more wins, and less of players swinging for the fences. they won't need to. How many home games did the brewers have 9th inning at bats last year that also included a homer? I'm going to predict the brewers bat a lot less in the 9th inning at home this year. i jus t don't believe guys like prince, hart, hardy and braun are going to go up to the plate this year with the mentality that they have to hit the ball out of the park to win. i just believe we are going to see a lot less runs scored and a lot fewer 8-7 victories.

[trwi7]

luke van, have yo u ever noticed a tea m - other tha n the brewers that has it's ace pitcher on the mound and they are cruising, 4-1, how quickly his team plays to get the game over? if beckett is on the mound, you don't see big poppy or manny trying to hit 3 more homers and make it a 10-1 game. They just bat quietly, and they win 4-1.

 

The big problem with the brewers last year was that a 4-1 lead was never safe, so the brewers would hit homers to catch up.

So basically you're saying once the Red Sox got out to a lead with Beckett on the mound they would just stop trying? I don't buy that for a second.

 

Edit: In games Josh Beckett won last year the opponent scored an average of 2.48 runs, the Red Sox scored an average of 7.62 runs in those games.

[Gopher74]

How many home games did the brewers have 9th inning at bats last year that also included a homer? I'm going to predict the brewers bat a lot less in the 9th inning at home this year.

I don't know. How many. If you're going to throw that out there as if it has some significant statistical importance, then back it up with something other than what appears to be a rhetorical question.

But besides that, we were one of the best teams in the big leagues at home last year, so the number of 9th innings that we won't have, even if we improve on that home record this year, is going to be so tiny that it's hardly worth mentioning. And then talk about how many HR's we hit in those situations? You're talking about what? 3-4 HR's?

luke van, have yo u ever noticed a tea m - other tha n the brewers that has it's ace pitcher on the mound and they are cruising, 4-1, how quickly his team plays to get the game over? if beckett is on the mound, you don't see big poppy or manny trying to hit 3 more homers and make it a 10-1 game. They just bat quietly, and they win 4-1.

Second, the entire premise that teams stop playing hard and "try to get the game over with" when their ace is on the mound is absolutely preposterous. It truly is. You really think that Professional Baseball players are going up to at bats trying to make outs? Trying to not get hits? I don't think I've ever disagreed with something so strongly.

The big problem with the brewers last year was that a 4-1 lead was never safe, so the brewers would hit homers to catch up.
Ok, you're losing me here. So they're either up in this scenario, and the lead's not safe, or they need to hit HR's in order to catch up, but I've never heard of a team having to catch up with a 3 run lead.

Are you suggesting that the team is going to be so much better that they won't fall behind as much this year so they won't try to hit as many HR's? An argument that I would say is flawed because it's only reasonable to assume they would get a lead by hitting HR's, at least some of the time, and also is contradicted by your argument that they're not going to be any more competitive this year than last, and that the Cubs will be.

Yea, suffice to say, this argument has me scratching my head.

[hauser42]

#1 will Ben Sheets, he will once again get injured and loose a bunch of starts that this team could use from an ace type pitcher

 

How can you be disappointed in a player you cut on in every single post you make? I think the only way Sheets is a disappointment to you is if he stays healthy all year and pitches well.

He wont disapoint me, but most of the Brewer Nation will be unless he puts it back together. If he stayed healthy and earned his money I would be happy.

 

Ender when Sheets starts pulling his weight r and stops robbing the Brewers of moey I will be grateful. Tidbit for you Ender,Ron Shandler in his baseball forecaster has labeled Sheets injury prone in his book this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

How many home games did the brewers have 9th inning at bats last year that also included a homer?

 

The Brewers had 6 HRs in the 9th inning at Miller Park out of 123 ABs.

[RockCoCougars]

I'll go with Suppan.

[crewcrazy]

Yeah, I think this is the year Suppan really starts to slip. I could see Capuano improving from last year (or at least getting luckier), but Suppan slipping a bit more. I'm also afraid that the casual fan base will be expecting at least .310-35 HR-90 RBI from Braun every year, and that could set a lot of people up for disappointment this year. Of course, he could duplicate last year's numbers and just prove to be one of those guys with ridiculously high BABIP's every year. I think Cameron will do fine, but will probably get off to a slow start since he'll be missing a solid month of play...I would gladly take 20 HR's from him, especially considering he'll be missing 25 games.

 

As far as Gagne goes, I get the feeling that casual fans will treat him a lot like Turnbow -- they'll go nuts when he's on, but they'll turn on him the second he gets a 2-0 count. Aside from the $10 million deal (which a lot of people still think is a ton, even if it's a 1-year deal), the Mitchell Report thing probably doesn't sit well with the casual fan and they'll be looking for a reason to hate him.

 

If we want to extend this to minor league players, I have a bad feeling that guys like LaPorta and Gamel won't improve as much as expected, and guys on suspension to start the year like Salome and Jeffress will lose a full year in their development, but maybe that's just more irrational fear than anything. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Hall is going to be huge for us this year back to his 2005, 2006 form. Gagne could dissapoint, but I sure hope not we need him big time. I will go with Hardy or Sheets.

[Foofty]

how is it that noone has said Turnblow....

 

that man is a disaster in the waiting.... UNLESS they use him in a shouse type of role... specialist for 1 batter ( or until he walks someone, yank him IMMEDIATLY after )

 

he WILL be the biggest dissapointment, god I can't wait for his contract to expire.

[Ennder]

how is it that noone has said Turnblow....

 

that man is a disaster in the waiting.... UNLESS they use him in a shouse type of role... specialist for 1 batter ( or until he walks someone, yank him IMMEDIATLY after )

 

he WILL be the biggest dissapointment, god I can't wait for his contract to expire.

 

Does anyone expect him to be good? I'm just happy that he is the 4th or 5th best RP in the bullpen now instead of the 2nd or 3rd and I hope Yost treats him as such.

[Glennron]

I think J.J. Hardy's whole season will basically be like 2007's July-September for him, nothing to complain about but not the tear he was on the first 2+ months. For pitchers I'll say Villanueva. I don't think he'll ever really establish himself in the rotation.

[ELCABALLO45]

Rickie Weeks... everyone loves him (including me)

 

 

Back to Ryan Braun.

 

He hit 34 home runs last year. Even if he came "back down to earth" wouldnt he still hit close to 30? I mean he did miss 2 months last year and still hit 34. And something else to look at.. did Albert Pujols dissapoint in his 2nd year? Maybe he did but still.. we are talking about.. The Next...Albert...Pujols... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[Gopher74]

How many home games did the brewers have 9th inning at bats last year that also included a homer?

 

 

 

 

The Brewers had 6 HRs in the 9th inning at Miller Park out of 123 ABs.

Ok, so even if they don't hit a single one next year, which is very unlikely, it's certainly not going to make a huge difference overall in their HR production. Not to the point where nearly every player has a significant drop in their HR's.