MLB Salaries in the year 2028???

[RyDogg66]

I was just wondering, what do you think the salaries for players will be in the year 2028??

 

For example:

 

A Geoff Jenkins type 32 y/o platoon OF?

The minimum salary

1st year arby guy like Hardy

2nd year arby guy

3rd year arby guy?

Pitchers like Suppan and Silva on the FA market

A player like Andruw Jones (i.e. big name, poor production, or big risk)?

A pitcher like Cordero, Sheets, etc?

[Prince James]

No idea, but if you just assume 3% inflation per year (which definitely has not been the case, in reality or in baseball) a $10 million salary in 2008 would be equivalent to a $17.5 million salary in 2028. Just assume a %75 increase in 20 years.

 

Just for fun, in 100 years, the same $10 million contract would be equivalent to $186.6 million.

 

All of this said, I think we will continue to see a pretty flat trend in salaries for a while. Sure, there will be some crazy contracts signed, but even that has slowed somewhat in the past couple of years.

 

Out of curiosity, why do you ask? Do you think we should sign Prince to a 20 year contract?

 

edit: or are you playing OOTP

[sgtcluels]

At the rate of the plumeting American dollar.

 

Bat boy: 1 million a game.

Braun: 3.4 Trillion dollars a week. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[sbrylski]

Salaries will be half of what they are now, after the implimentation of a stricter luxury tax as well as a continued downfall of the US dollar.

 

I think we'll see an increasingly globalized game in the next few decades. I agree with Bud that the game will change a lot in the future, but not under his watch (at least not for the better) nor really in the next five years.

[jordanmuehl]

This thread is interesting. It's interesting to think how much athletes stand to make as their sports keep growing and inflation keeps rising.

[RyDogg66]

What prompted me to contemplate this is the growing arbitration numbers some guys are seeing as well as guys like Silva and Suppan in FA. Maybe even in 10 years a guy like Jeff Suppan, a career .500 pitcher, 4.50ish ERA could command 15-20 million a year.

[Gopher74]

All of this said, I think we will continue to see a pretty flat trend in salaries for a while. Sure, there will be some crazy contracts signed, but even that has slowed somewhat in the past couple of years.

Exactly. I've argued this point myself to no avail. I believe that baseball is unique in that the top contracts will not always increase.

 

[jazzytrav]

Out of curiosity, why do you ask? Do you think we should sign Prince to a 20 year contract?

I should point out that last year during the in-game chats I was a strong advocate for signing Braun to a 25 year/$500 million deal right now.

 

I always think the funniest thing about looking at salary increases like this is that we won't notice these changes any more than we do now. In 100 years, we will have people arguing that a player like Eric Gagne is worth $186.6 million/year. I can't wait http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[monty57]

As far as inflation goes, I always use the easy math that prices double every 20 years and triple every 30. The 70's hyperinflation throws that off, but it works pretty well for most other periods over the past 200 years or so. I'm not sure what inflation history looks like for Major League salaries. It seems like it's probably gone up faster than average, but that's just a guess. To answer your question, that would mean a Jenkins-type would be worth around $12MM / year, league minimum would be around a million, top end arby would be something like $10MM/$18MM/$25MM, Suppan $20-25MM, top-end FA $35-40MM, ARod would be $55-60MM. Taking the kids to the game will probably run $200 or so if you get inexpensive tickets. But then again, a trip to the grocery store will cost $200-300, and a $100,000 annual salary won't seem like all that much, so everything's relative.

 

To expand a little on the topic, for the short term, the last time we saw a huge jump in top end salaries (A-Rod, Manny) was the late 90's, when the economy was in a boom. Then, when we hit recession, salaries came back down some. Since 2003, as the economy has been booming, we've seen salaries jump once again. Now, it looks like a good chance for recession or at least a big slowdown. We'll see what ticket sales are if we start seeing unemployment numbers jump. That could put a downturn on salaries for a couple of years, but long-term it should continue upwards. Most markets have peaks and valleys, and the next peak is generally higher than the previous. Then there's another valley before the next peak and so on.

 

There are a couple of interesting trends that could have an effect:

 

First is internet revenue. To the best of my knowledge, that is shared evenly throughout baseball, and if Mr. Gates and Mr. Jobs are correct, I believe most television programming will stem through the internet in the not-too-distant future. This would have a huge impact on baseball revenue, as most "big market" teams are "big market" due to TV deals. I doubt the Cubs sell many more tickets than the Brewers, but their TV and radio deals bring in a lot more revenue. This would probably increase most contracts, as there would be more bidders, but may lower the top end salaries as teams like the Yankees & Red Sox may not have as much revenue.

 

Secondly is how much of an effect the Nationals sale had. If the recent upturn in salaries is due to a one-time cash infusion from the Nationals (who were jointly owned by all of the other owners), then we may see a steep & sudden drop off as one-time cash infusions do not create long-term demand. My timing may be off, but wasn't the last infusion of this sort when the Diamondbacks and D Rays joined? Shortly thereafter, the Brewers increased their payroll by re-signing players like Burnitz and bringing in big named additions like Jeffery Hammonds. Subsequently, after the cash was gone, they couldn't afford those players and got into big financial trouble. This time around, I'm looking at a team like the Royals that suddenly became players in the FA market over the past couple of offseasons.

 

I wouldn't be too surprised if salaries flatten off or even go down next offseason if ticket sales are down due to a faltering economy. However, long term I think Bud slipped one by the big-market owners with shared internet revenue, which should even the playing field out a little down the road.

[BREWCREW5]

My guess is higher than they are now.

[RightFieldCoder]

But then again, a trip to the grocery store will cost $200-300, and a $100,000 annual salary won't seem like all that much, so everything's relative.

 

That wouldn't be bad, I already spend close to $200 at the grocery store.

[Patrick425]

But then again, a trip to the grocery store will cost $200-300, and a $100,000 annual salary won't seem like all that much, so everything's relative.

 

That wouldn't be bad, I already spend close to $200 at the grocery store.

Us too, and we only have 3 people in the family. Of course, I'm very brand specific in what I buy and I'm not much of a coupon clipper or bargain shopper.

[sbrylski]

Redundant, as I posted this just a few days ago in a different thread, but it it highly relevant here:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/salaryinflation.gif