Six year/30 million for Tulo?

[DuWayne Steurer]

on the one hand, baseball has an archaic and outdated salary structure It artificially surpresses a players earning potential for 6 years. On the other hand, without this structure, teams like the A's, Twins, Brewers, Pirates, etc etc, have absolutely no chance of competing.

 

In baseball, top prospects are far more likely to flame out (even moreso yet with pitchers) than those in football or basketball. The future success of a top baseball prospect is so much harder to predict, partly because, as someone much older and wiser than myself has said (and been repeated many times), hitting a baseball is quite simply the hardest thing to do in sports. I think the flameout rate (15% of first round draft picks play more than 3 years in the majors) is partly the reason that the salary structure is the way it is.

 

What I'm getting at is that I think it's a relevant worry that this is a precedent setting deal. IF these guys start asking for high dollar deals in their pre-arby years (Ryan Howard, I'm looking at you), is there even a slight chance that baseball changes the way it pays young players? If so, I really do fear for the future of franchises like the Brewers. The only way they can compete in the current financial climate is to have young, pre arby guys who are producing.

 

All that being said, I doubt highly that this changes things. Which is all the more reason it's a head scratcher. Many have said it in this thread, but there was simply NO reason Colorado should have felt compelled to do this deal so soon.

[Ennder]

I don't think the system is archaic at all. It is why baseball can survive without a salary cap. The entire system is built around keeping young talent cheap and making teams who want to buy titles overpay per win. The system isn't perfect but if it saves us from 80% of the league is mediocre and there are 3 good teams every year like in football I'm happy with it.

[endaround]

The system makes up for the fact that draft choices actually get paid decent size bonuses when signed. Of all the home grown Brewers contributing to the team right now, only Hart wouldn't have gotten a large signing bonus (depending on how you classify Villaneuva).

[rluzinski]

I don't think the system is archaic at all. It is why baseball can survive without a salary cap.

 

The point is, it's archaic to NOT have a salary cap in a professional sports league these days. The arbitration system is just a sorry bandaid for a serious problem, IMO.

[Ennder]

I don't think the system is archaic at all. It is why baseball can survive without a salary cap.

 

The point is, it's archaic to NOT have a salary cap in a professional sports league these days. The arbitration system is just a sorry bandaid for a serious problem, IMO.

 

No it is smart to not have a cap, but we aren't going to start this big long thread again are we, the two sides will never agree on it.

[rluzinski]

I didn't realize that anyone (outside the professional players themselves) thought a cap was a bad idea. I must have missed a megathread somewhere along the way.

[Mass Haas]

As far as a hometown discount, I remember Peavy stating (after he signed his extension with SD this offseason at $18.5 mil. AAV) that he felt the Pads had been good to him, and their offer was the most money he'd ever need - or something close to that. After his two pre-arby years, the Pads structured a 4-yr deal through 2008, with a club option for '09 ($500k buyout):

 

2005: $750k

2006: $2.5 mil.

2007: $4.75 mil.

2008: $6 mil.

2009: $8 mil.

 

Obviously at this point it's a foregone conclusion that the Pads will pick up that option. They've gotten CY work for Ryan Dempster money. I guess the Rox are being optimistic in that sense, but I'd argue they're being optimistic in terms of Tulo's ceiling. What if his home splits aren't as pretty and his road #s only improve marginally?

By winning the NL Cy Young Award, Jake Peavy increased the Padres' 2009 option on him from $8 million to $11 million. Just an FYI...

 

Peavy will earn get $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. A $22 million option for 2013 with a $4 million buyout is included.

[monty57]

Colorado probably jumped the gun a little on this, but I've been clamoring for the Brewers to lock up Prince all offseason. By "buying out" pre-arby years, the average per year on the contract goes down substantially. So, you're paying more for the first couple of years, but significantly less for the last few years. The team benefits by getting an extra year or two of service from the player. The player probably gets a little less than they would have if they stayed healthy and productive, but they get the insurance of a guaranteed contract, which is huge... all the risk now shifts to the team. The reason you're starting to see teams willing to do this is that arbitration numbers have jumped over the past few years. Superstar players are now getting $8-10MM in year two and $10-12MM in their final arby year.

 

If done wisely, this is an effective tool for small-mid market teams to get seven or eight years out of a player instead of six (or less if Cabrera's case holds precedence and small-market teams can't afford the arby years). Consider this example. Let's assume Prince continues to get better, and hits 58 HR this season and 63 in his first arby year. If salaries continue to escalate as they have, he'd probably get $12-15MM in year two and over $15MM in his final arby year. In that scenario, the Brewers may not be able to afford him and would have to trade him off like the Marlins did with Cabrera, thereby only geting 4-5 years of Prince's service. The other side of the coin is that Fielder could regress, or even worse, sustain a career ending injury before he ever hits arby and never gets his big payday. In other words, there's risk for both sides in signing a contract like this so as a team I'd only do this if I were certain the player in question was going to be a superstar.

 

I feel that good players should be treated like the Brewers did with Hall. I'd like to see Melvin try to buy out some FA years on Hart, Hardy and Weeks in a year or two, after they're in their arbitration years. Superstar players should get treated like Pujols and now Tulo (although I may argue whether he's a superstar, Colorado sure thinks he is). The Brewers should look at doing this with Fielder now and Braun and Yo in a year or two. However, if Braun would accept a 6-year / $30MM deal, the Brewers would be foolish not to sign it today.

[TooLiveBrew]

By winning the NL Cy Young Award, Jake Peavy increased the Padres' 2009 option on him from $8 million to $11 million. Just an FYI...

 

Peavy will earn get $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. A $22 million option for 2013 with a $4 million buyout is included.

 

Thanks MH - missed that at Cot's. Darn it.

 

(I only included the 'old' contract info for him, since that's what I was primarily referencing, fwiw)

[endaround]

Braun is already under Brewer control for 6 years at less than $30 million. The cotnract for Tulo is jsut foolish. Colorado is takign on a huge maount of risk, including a huge amount of injury risk, for little or no savings. If Tulo went year to year most think he'd get 500k, 500k, $4 m, $8 m, $12 m at best. Which means the Rockies might be saving $6 million on his first FA year if he has absolutely no regress or injury. Just seems stupid.

[monty57]

Braun is already under Brewer control for 6 years at less than $30 million.

 

endaround, is that a guarantee?

 

Cabrera and Texiara just got $11-12MM each in their final arby years. Braun won't reach that stage for five years, so it wouldn't be unheard of for him to see $15-20MM in his final year alone if salaries keep going up. Plus, buying out one extra year where he would otherwise be a free agent (during the prime of his career) is huge in terms of dollar value and just having him on the team for another season. I do agree that Tulo shouldn't have been signed to that contract, but I believe Braun is a much, much better player than Tulo.

 

If Braun's call-up was late enough that this year won't count towards arbitration, than I wouldn't want to sign him to a 6-year deal. I'd only want to do it if it buys out a year of free agency. I'm not sure what the case is. Have they announced "Super 2" players?

[endaround]

Super 2 has nothign to do with free agency. Braun likely will be Super 2 but he still has 6 years until free agency. And giving any player a 6 year contract assumes a huge amount of risk especially if you go year to year you don't have huge injury concerns. Tulo could injure himself like Hardy did and miss 3/4 a season and that would substantially lower any arby award.

[monty57]

There is absolutely a tremendous amount of risk, which is why I would only consider doing it with a "sure thing" player, although injuries can even derail sure things. I would not have signed the deal with Tulo.

 

I don't think there's any chance Braun signs, as it is too early. However, there is risk in not signing the deal as well. Braun had a ridiculous year offensively. If he continues on that track, and contracts continue to rise, he could very well get $6MM, $10MM, $15MM in arby and then be gone to free agency. The Brewers would end up paying more money and having him one less year.

 

However, I'm much less interested in signing Braun, as he only has one year of service, than I am in signing Fielder. The one year of pre-arby he has left brings the contract down significantly. If the Brewers wait until after this season to try to lock him up, the asking price goes up significantly. Over the next six seasons, including two FA years, he'll probably make $55MM or so if he stays healthy and productive. We could potentially buy out two years of FA by offering a 6 year deal now. The team's risk is the guaranteed money. His risk is the chance at possibly more money. However, now that we're at $80MM in payroll, it's probably not likely to happen, so the point is probably moot.

[Fatter than Joey]

What if his home splits aren't as pretty and his road #s only improve marginally?

 

He has only had 300 road ABs. Even still, when Tulo hits his next road HR he will have the all-time Rockies mark for a SS.

 

He's an amazing defender and if he hits 25 HRs a year -- even if they are all at Coors, the $30M over 6 years will be a good value.

 

There certainly is risk for both the Rockies and Tulo