Six year/30 million for Tulo?

[DuWayne Steurer]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3205453

 

Hope that's not precedent setting.

[crewcrazy]

Hard for it not to be a precedent-setting deal if it's going to be the biggest extension ever for a guy who's played less than two years. And really, I don't think it'd be a very good investment for the Rockies in terms of production vs. pay. He's a fan favorite, though, so I suppose it's important for them to lock him up and avoid going year-to-year.

[Brian the Automator]

That's a lot of dough to pay for someone who's got a .720 away OPS and someone who was successful in steal 7 of 13 bags.

[Fatter than Joey]

$5M per year doesn't seem like an outrageous amount to pay, for a guy who you know is going to save runs on D.

[Ennder]

I'm dubious about him repeating last year offensively or defensively but I'd expect he'll be at least an average bat for a SS and he's a good fielder no matter what, so the deal doesn't seem too unreasonable.

[Fatter than Joey]

Hope that's not precedent setting.

 

Could you expound on this? -- I am curious what you meant if it relates to the Brewers.

[Brian the Automator]

$5M per year doesn't seem like an outrageous amount to pay, for a guy who you know is going to save runs on D.

On the open market, it's a great deal. But when you spread out the dollars on a normal pre-arby and arby payscale, it's a much less attractive deal.

 

[twobrewers]

But when you spread out the dollars on a normal pre-arby and arby payscale, it's a much less attractive deal.

True, but I assume you are looking at the current arbitraion payscale. The Rockies might be looking at 3 years down the road. Perhaps they expect salaries to increase dramatically - and this will have him locked in at a bit lower rate.

 

Still, a 6 year deal is significantly more risky that going year by year.

 

Hope that's not precedent setting.

I assume he means that he hopes Braun doesn't ask for the same contract.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I mean, when a guy is 2 years away from arby, locking them up like that just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Brian nailed it on the head, in an open market, 5 mil per for Tulo is a steal, but he's 5 years away from being an *open market* player. Also, and this is more of just my opinion, giving that kind of coin to a guy who's played one year is a huge risk, and one that doesn't need to be taken. He could tank, he might not. The point is, you have 3 years before arby to figure it out, and 3 years of arby after that where the guy still can't go anywhere. You could argue that it's a "good faith" payment, and one that might convince Tulo to take a hometown discount 7 years from now, but the fact of the matter is, if you go through your pre-arby, and arby years, and produce, you're going to get paid.

 

Just seems like a really unnecessary risk on the Rockies' part.

[rluzinski]

So, they are buying out one, post arbitration year? They must really think he's going to be a stud, since that's the only way this makes sense at all. What's a normal, good SS projection? My rough guess:

 

08: $.5 mil (pre arby)

09: $.5 mil (pre arby)

10: $2.5 mil (1st year arby)

11: $4 mil (2nd year arby)

12: $6 mil (3rd year arby)

 

$13.5 mil total. That means they'd effectively be paying him $16.5 mil for 2013. Inflation makes that sound larger than it is but it's still a heck of a lot to pay for one extra year of a player, even if he proves to be a solid SS.

[dadofandrew]

Bush is first year arby, and he asked for $3M, so all the arby numbers in the guess above are well low. Not a bad deal for either side, but considering what happened to the Rockies other SS prospect falling off a cliff, I hate giving out $30M when I could go year-to-year with no risk at all, especially to only get a single year of FA.

[Fatter than Joey]

The Rockies might be looking at 3 years down the road. Perhaps they expect salaries to increase dram

atically - and this will have him locked in at a bit lower rate.

 

That's what I initially thought -- Like Al points out Bush just got $3M, and Tulo could be worth way more.

 

Prince is one year ahead of Tulo. I am not saying Tulo is better or worse than Prince, but signing Prince to a 6yr $30M deal last year, would have made a lot of fans happy.

[Oldcity]

This extension would make more sense if it came two years later. Like others have said, I don't see the point of this when he's still two years away from the start of arbitration.

[sbrylski]

08: $.5 mil (pre arby)

09: $.5 mil (pre arby)

10: $2.5 mil (1st year arby)

11: $4 mil (2nd year arby)

12: $6 mil (3rd year arby)

 

Russ, by 2012, I'll bet $6M for a 3rd year arby player is practically a minimum. I'd say more like:

 

$0.5M, $0.5M, $4M, $8M, $12M

 

That's assuming he's an above average regular. If he develops into the superstar he probably has the talent to be, you could add up to $8M or $10M more to the total.

 

I think, while a risk, this could end up being a great deal for the Rockies.

[xisxisxis]

I don't think we should let the Rockies success on the field detract from the fact that Dan O'Dowd is still the GM. He's given out some pretty horrible, franchise crippling contracts over the years and this may not be crippling, but it's pretty close to being horrible.

[kramnoj]

If Troy turns into a star, the Rockies will make out very well. If he becomes very good, the Rockies are ahead a little. They are expecting him to be good, and are paying him for that. If he just turns out average, they would have lost a little value, but they have cost certainty. This deal only stinks if Troy is a below average player, and there isn't any reason to expect that.

[rluzinski]

$0.5M, $0.5M, $4M, $8M, $12M

 

I had a feeling I was underestimating it but I guess I was way off http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[UndraftedFA]

I also don't see it as bad if he continues to be above average. That said, one bad injury, and that is a lot of money that would be handed out before it needed to be. At least with free agent contracts, it is a matter of if you want to have the player come to you. There is no choice for Tulo if he wants to play for the next 5 seasons. If he stays healthy for the contract, do you really think it will buy good will? Or is he just going to think he gave them a discount? I imagine it buys a lot of good will currently, but to hope he remembers in 6 years? I guess if he does stay healthy and above average, they will at least likely save some money, and at least have hope of another discount.

[kramnoj]

I don't think the idea is to hope the player gives you a discount later. The idea is that the team identifies a player and projects them to be a very good player. By paying them as such, you've made your player happy, and if the player turns out to be even better than your projections, you could save yourself a pile of money in their first free agent year.

[TooLiveBrew]

As far as a hometown discount, I remember Peavy stating (after he signed his extension with SD this offseason at $18.5 mil. AAV) that he felt the Pads had been good to him, and their offer was the most money he'd ever need - or something close to that. After his two pre-arby years, the Pads structured a 4-yr deal through 2008, with a club option for '09 ($500k buyout):

 

2005: $750k

2006: $2.5 mil.

2007: $4.75 mil.

2008: $6 mil.

2009: $8 mil.

 

Obviously at this point it's a foregone conclusion that the Pads will pick up that option. They've gotten CY work for Ryan Dempster money. I guess the Rox are being optimistic in that sense, but I'd argue they're being optimistic in terms of Tulo's ceiling. What if his home splits aren't as pretty and his road #s only improve marginally?

[mothershipconnection]

I'm personally of the opinion that he's grossly over-rated, like many others on this site. When viewed through that lens, this deal doesn't look that great. However, if you are of the "Tulo is awesome and will be our SS of the future" mind that the Colorado front office is in, it ain't bad. Provided they intend on sticking with him that long, the deal is decent financially as long as he doesn't tank. His good defense and Coors-inflated offensive numbers will be enough for him to score nice arbitration figures.

[TheBrewer]

Its not horrible. It depends on how Tulo turns out in the future. The only negative I see on this is players around the league maybe like Braun are going to say pre-arby, lock me up to a 30+ million dollar contract... I don't think that will happen, but who knows.. he's setting the market in a sense. If that happens Major League Baseball in general is going to have major issues with teams like the Rays, Pirates (once they get young talent), possibly the Brewers and others. The whole point that teams like the A's and now Brewers are successful is because these young players are cheap. I hope this doesn't become the bar around the league but who knows.

 

Like I said it all depends on how he turns out. I think this deal is a bit early, this should've happened maybe 1-2 years down the line ...

[logan82]

I don't think either side should have done this deal. The market isn't going to go down for players, especially in light of how popular baseball is. At least see what you are going to get the first time you go to arbitration. Have some confidence in yourself that you will continue to play well and get a better contract latter. As for the team, I wouldn't commit to a player longer than 4 years. Why give a player a contract when you already have him under control for longer than that? At least see if he can duplicate his performance.

[kramnoj]

I really don't understand why people think signing Braun to a deal like this would be a bad deal. It would be a GREAT deal for the Brewers to do this. Buying out a year of free agency is huge. Player salaries don't go down. They may not continue to explode like they have recently, but its only reasonable to think that salaries will continue to increase. A good position player could be worth $15m in 6 years.

[TheBrewer]

I'm not saying that it would be bad for like Braun and us in 1-2 years to do that, by all means, but I'm saying overall in general if say BJ Upton or Delmon Young ask for a big contract such as this, teams may have payroll issues, they can obviously say no to a player, like the Pirates did with Snell, but does a player get bent then if a team turns him down, does he then snub the organization and requests a trade.. it's a domino affect..