CIN signs Jeremy Affeldt (1yr/3M)

[Tisko]

Kind of suprised that he didn't get a deal for more than one year given the stat of effective relievers this offseason.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7695584

[TooLiveBrew]

Dang those Reds, sneakin' around... I get the feeling they could be a thorn in our sides.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

I agree. Cincinnati's got some young studs like Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Encarnacion, Keppinger...and now they have a legit closer, and a few terrific veterans like Griffey, Phillips, and Dunn. I see them in 3rd place, behind us and the Cubs, and it may be closer than we expected.

 

In fact, until Doug started acquiring all these old righty relievers, I STILL wanted JA as a lefty reliever. I have my doubts about Shousie, who turns 40 this year, still being effective again. If he's not, we have exactly ZERO lefty relievers we can confidently bring in, in '08.

 

Still, I suspect Affeldt's not getting bigger money, because perhaps GMs perceive (as I do) all those suddenly magnificent Rockies performances as flukes. Up until 2007, Affeldt was mosty awful. Things sometimes just seem to come together for undeserving teams, like the '05 White Sox and the '06 Cardinals. They seemed too lucky, and inevitably plummeted in the standings after some ridiculously above-career-average numbers by a lot of their average players.

[JohnBriggs12]

Geno,

 

I totally agree with you about Shouse, but they actually do have some lefty alternatives already on the roster. Stetter was lights out in AFL. Yeah it was the AFL, but he looked pretty good in his few Sept. appearences. Choate has major league experience too.

 

Then there's one Chris Capuano. I'm alone on here but I think his future is as a lefty reliever and I think he'd be a pretty good one. He has that bulldog mentality and his somewhat quirky delivery that I think fits relievers better than starters.

[Ennder]

I don't think you can mention Affeldt and confidently bring in together though. This is a guy who has BB'd over 5 per 9 in each of the last 3 years without overpowering stuff to make up for it. He had an ok ERA last year but it was only because of an abnormally low HR/FB which isn't something a GB pitcher generally has.

 

Not to say he wouldn't have been an ok risk but I have about as much confidence in Stetter as I would have in Affeldt.

[TooLiveBrew]

Then there's one Chris Capuano. I'm alone on here but I think his future is as a lefty reliever and I think he'd be a pretty good one

 

I think his struggles from pitches 75-100 point to him being better used in the bullpen. I don't know about his bulldog factor, but I think if we want to keep another lefty in the interest of balance, he makes more sense in the bullpen. He can spot-start, be the first arm to add after an injury in the rotation, and provide valuable insurance as a RP that's more than just a LOOGY.

[dadofandrew]

Capuano would have got $20M or more as a free agent SP this offseason. His desire to pitch in relief is zero.

[sbrylski]

I have some level of confidence in Mitch Stetter as our backup lefty for next season, if Shouse were to bottom out. Otherwise there's always Parra, who could go all season without a starting opportunity in the bigs if we stay healthier than average.

[TooLiveBrew]

Capuano would have got $20M or more as a free agent SP this offseason. His desire to pitch in relief is zero.

 

Good thing Chris Capuano isn't the GM, then. I'm sure Gabe Gross & Joe Dillon would start themselves, too, given the power. This year is as good a shot as any the Brewers will ever have to win the NL. To be honest, I don't care if Capuano would be unhappy to be there - that's where he's best utilized. Kinda like Braun to LF.

[Fatter than Joey]

Affeldt was mosty awful.

 

Awful is probably an upgrade over the Reds BP last year -- The Reds BP LHP vs. LH

 

(BAbip)

Stanton .373 (Most PA)

Coutlangus .319

Gosling .400

 

2007 -- League Average -- .300

Afflet career -- .284

Shouse .281 (for comparison)

 

So clearly the Reds could improve their LHP out of their BP from 2007, if Affeldt is used as a LOOGY, I don't see how he isn't some sort of improvement -- and if he sucks, he probably is worth the one year risk.

[dadofandrew]

Affeldt apparently marketed himself as a SP, and took a year to prove himself. With LH relief guys getting 3y/$12M deals, I find that to be needless risk, but if he can go 175 innings and win 10 games, he'll make $30M.

[Gopher74]

I agree. Cincinnati's got some young studs like Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Encarnacion, Keppinger...and now they have a legit closer, and a few terrific veterans like Griffey, Phillips, and Dunn. I see them in 3rd place, behind us and the Cubs, and it may be closer than we expected.

 

In fact, until Doug started acquiring all these old righty relievers, I STILL wanted JA as a lefty reliever. I have my doubts about Shousie, who turns 40 this year, still being effective again. If he's not, we have exactly ZERO lefty relievers we can confidently bring in, in '08.

I absolutely agree with you on Shouse. I just have very little faith in him. I do however like Stetter and I think he can be a legit lefty reliever for us next year. I was impressed with him in his time up here last year, and he did an exceptional job in the AFL as was already noted.

 

I think that I may be unfairly judging Shouse because it appears his stuff is so bad and so hittable, because he was very good last year and solid the year before, but I still just don't have confidence in him. And I hope Yost doesn't think he can be used against right handers because he had a couple decent outings vs them last year.

 

Still, between Cappy, Stetter, and our SP'ers, I think we can find a viable loogy if Shouse turns out to be a bust.

[Gopher74]

Capuano would have got $20M or more as a free agent SP this offseason. His desire to pitch in relief is zero.

His desire to pitch in a particular role is of little interest to me, nor is it of much interest to the Brewers I'm guessing.

 

He's also the type of guy who's going to do what the Brewers ask of him, so I don't think it's a real issue. If we have guys having success starting, Cappy can be used to face left handers.

 

[danzig6767]

The last three years lefties have hit off Shouse

 

2007--.214

2006--.238

2005--.209

 

Any complaints about Shouse should be directed at Ned. His job is to get lefties out and he does a very good job at it. Maybe Yost needs to have Shouse's career splits vs righties and lefties stapled to his cap, there isn't any room for interpretation.

 

Right--.311 BAA/1.79 WHIP

Left---.217 BAA/1.02 WHIP

[Fatter than Joey]

I think that I may be unfairly judging Shouse because it appears his stuff is so bad and so hittable, because he was very good last year and solid the year before, but I still just don't have confidence in him. And I hope Yost doesn't think he can be used against right handers because he had a couple decent outings vs them last year.

 

Geno -- Shouse doesn't have "stuff", he has a quirky delivery and a bizarre release point, which is tough on LHers, but pretty easy to hit for RHers.

 

As you allude to, when Shouse gets in trouble is when Ned anoints him "7th inning guy". I am AOK with Shouse being our LOOGY, but nothing gets me headed over to the Yost Nay thread faster than letting Shouse pitch to RHers.

[Brian the Automator]

Interesting... It sounds like Affeldt might join the Cinci rotation.

[Fatter than Joey]

Interesting... It sounds like Affeldt might join the Cinci rotation.

 

Yeah -- that is interesting, I would still submit, that "awful" would be an upgrade to their rotation depth.

 

I think he makes more sense in their BP though, -- perhaps he could be moved if one of Cincy's young studs (Maloney Cueto, etc.) start tearing it up in AAA.

[Brian the Automator]

The thing Affeldt has going for him is that his G/F ratio is pretty extreme, in favor of groundballs. Either way, I think it's an upgrade for their pitching staff.