What if Gwynn Rakes?

[MJLiverock]

Gross is just above hack level in the outfield. He has a great arm but takes horrid routes on the ball. How many balls have to be hit over is head and missplays does he have to have? It is like the Brady Clark syndrom. Just because he isn't overweight or looks like he should be a decent outfielder doesn't make him a good CF.

This is why it's not very viable to juse the old "from what I see" line of thinking doesn't work as well as using actual stats.

 

Now I agree that defensive metrics aren't that reliable, but they are more reliable than using a couple plays to evaluate a players ability.

 

 

Not really sure what you are trying to say here but all the Brewer goggles in the world aren't going to convince me that Gross is an above average or even average center fielder. If you are trying to say that stats show Gross is good then I guess he is a perfect example of how defensive stats are flawed because he doesn't get an error for running in on a ball hit over his head or taking a horrid route to a ball and missing it. Now I suppose we can the get into the old staple of Brewerfan.net message board arguements about how a player is better than his stats like how Cappy, Bush, Gross, Counsell, Turnbow, Wise, etc. all played better than their stats but we can never actually admit a player had a bad year or really isn't that great, just misunderstood because the third derivative of some stat shows he is an All Star. Yet this team barely finished above .500 last year and missed the playoffs for some reason.

 

Maybe I am just cranky after the Packer loss and I my cynisim is showing now as I read post after post of how all these players on the Brewers are better than the stats show or that any of the favorites can just be plunked down in any position.

 

Now for fun yesterday I tried to look up some old scouting reports on Gross but couldn't find much on his defense. A couple blurbs here and there from his days in the Blue Jays system mentioned that if he learned to take better routes he could be an average corner outfield defender. That was about it. Nobody mentioned him becoming some sort of above average CF or even playing CF at all.

 

Sorry if I have assaulted one of the dieties of Brewerfan.net in Gabe Gross but someone has to take the other side of the Gabe Gross is a budding superstar who can play anywhere argument.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[crewcuts]

As for the "small ball", I don't see that as being a very important part of the game in the manner in which you describe it. I think the only position that I really care about bunting ability is in the pitchers. I don't want to give up outs in front of Prince/Braun or Hart. I definitely don't want to, and I don't think it's wise to in front of Cameron or Hall since they K a lot and you're likely just lowering your chance at scoring a run. Overall I just think it's overrated.

I agree that our team speed has improved and would include Prince in that group...He's a fairly smart, quick baserunner for his size..No, he's not fast but he's not Estrada slow...

While the Brewers are constructed as a power team, I see the need to improve situational hitting...We lost many games and killed many an inning last year by the lack of ability to score runners with less than two outs with men on base. Pitchers bunting is one case. Making contact is the other..Shortening up the swing and hitting behind the runner or hitting the ball in the air to score runners on third is something most championship teams do. Estrada's gone, the main offender. But watching Hall flail away in those situations last year and go down swinging drove me to distraction. You have a point that you don't want to take away power hitters aggressiveness, but good hitters get the job done. Weeks successful second half was largely due to becoming that kind of hitter. Working counts, making contact. Fielder does it pretty well and it's something Braun and Hardy need to improve upon, although I think Hardy just ran out of gas mid summer...I think he will hit less homers this year, but be a better hitter..Braun was a rookie and I think will get better at that quickly.

I should have been more specific..I wasn't referring to bunting as much as situational hitting. In that regard, Kendall should be a good addition. Hall is probably the best candidate for improvement...With two on and 0 or 1 out (or a man on third with less than 2 outs), he needs to go opposite field. He hits the ball as hard as anyone, so he either strikes out or hits a double play ball when he swings away in those circumstances. His successes of the past were when he went to right field and showed more discipline..Without the distraction of learning a new position, perhaps he will revert back to smarter hitting..Hart would be another candidate for improvement in those situations, although plate coverage for a guy that big is a different animal.. Sorry for the long winded reply, I was referring to quality outs (that can result in hits or errors) that win games...the difference between hackers and hitters.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

TLB, with Gwynn you'll likely prove most correct. But part of the fun is being a fan and pulling for the guys you like to pull for, however realistic or not those hopes may be.

 

Granted. But I was responding to the assertion that Gwynn still has room to grow. He's 25 this season, and what you see is what you get. To me, the only reasonable cause for someone to think he still has room to improve, where Gross at age 28 is maxed out, is that Tony has famous pedigree. I apologize for an admittedly snarky tone, as you're absolutely right that we all could've done without that.

[Robideaux]

Hart, Weeks, Hardy, Braun and Hall all have above average to exceptional speed.

Sorry to highjack, but does it seem to anyone else that Hardy is one of the slowest "fast-looking" runners ever? Every time I watch Hardy run, it's like Johnny Estrada is on the base paths, only not indifferent or out of shape.

 

I have no idea if Hardy is actually slow. He looks like he is trying (the arm pumping and such) and he's not grossly out of shape or anything--perhaps my eyes deceive.

 

Also, to answer the original question, if gwynn rakes, we trade him if we can get value for him. His future is as a 4th or 5th outfielder (or AAA)--if some other team (Texas perchance) views him differently because of his pedigree or his particular skill-set, pull the trigger ASAP. I for one would love a Gwynn for Laird swap.

[bullox]

Hardy and Sheets both look pretty awkward when they run imo.

[TauPentaRei]

Change the title to...

"What if Gwynn successfully slaps the ball into open holes in the infield?"

...and you've got a discussion. This talk of raking is bollocks.

[monty57]

I think Gwynn's biggest value to the team this year after the first 25 games will be as a defensive replacement / pinch runner. He may only be "good" defensively, but that's well above Braun and Dillon, and at least a step above Gross, so he would have some value to the team. Under no circumstance do I see him taking much playing time away from Cameron.

 

That said, count me in on the bandwagon that would like to see him traded if he starts out hot. His value would be at an all-time high, and we have a very left-handed bench even without Gwynn. If he's on the team, Dillon would probably be the only righty bat on the bench.

[TerraceReserved]

He may only be "good" defensively, but that's well above Braun and Dillon, and at least a step above Gross, so he would have some value to the team.

Going off RZR and OOZ, in right field last year, Gross was +2.1 runs with 288 innings, Dillon was -.9 runs in 6 innings, Gwynn was +1.3 in 62 innings. In center Gross was +1.4 in 26 innings and Gwynn was -2.2 in 153 innings. In left Dillon was -1.2 in 43 innings.

All that adds up to +3.5 runs in 314 innings for Gross, -2.1 runs for Dillon in 49 innings, and -.9 runs for Gwynn in 215 innings.

There's a small sample size warning for these, eccspecially Dillion, but I see nothing here that suggests Gwynn was good and Gross is poor on defense, theres actually quite the opposite. I think Gwynn is only seen as a good defender becuase he can't hit and is fast.

[monty57]

TR, you may well be right on that, and that would definitely put all of the cards in Gross' hands. I'm going from memory here, but everything I remember hearing from the minor league reports on Gwynn were how good a defender he was. I don't follow the minors all that much, but am I wrong, or did the "experts" say he was a good defender?

[TerraceReserved]

I did remember hearing that Gwynn was a good defender too. I'm not willing to rest everything on a pretty small sample of innings from Gwynn last year on defensive, but I don't know how much weight I would put on scouts saying he's good. I mean, he does look good in the field, he's smooth and seems quick, but the metrics are saying otherwise. I'll trust metrics more often than not over subjective opinions, and that holds true for this case. I geuss it's something that we'll have to see resolve itself once he gets more innings at the major league level.

[monty57]

Really, even if the scouts and coaches in question were known to be good at their job and the defensive metrics have been known to have faults?

 

I'd probably have to put my faith in Jack Z's boys in this case. They've done a pretty good job defining talent. That said, I don't think Gwynn's defense is going to earn him too much playing time this season. I just hope we don't get to a situation like we did last season with Counsell taking over for Braun late in the game. I could see Ned subbing Gwynn in for Braun late in close games if Braun proves to be a butcher in LF.

[endaround]

Ummm theses are the exact same scouts that said Braun was fine at 3B and Weeks shouldn't be moved off 2B. Not sure I'd really trust their opinions.

[monty57]

Good point. Maybe they just know offense.

[rluzinski]

Even a season's worth of defensive stats is a terribly small sample, so let's not get carried away. That said, I'm not sure how much I trust the Brewer's scouts in effectively evaluating defense, either.

[logan82]

Even a season's worth of defensive stats is a terribly small sample, so let's not get carried away. That said, I'm not sure how much I trust the Brewer's scouts in effectively evaluating defense, either.

or pitching.

[Ennder]

Ummm theses are the exact same scouts that said Braun was fine at 3B and Weeks shouldn't be moved off 2B. Not sure I'd really trust their opinions.

They didn't say he was fine at 3B, they thought he could grow into an adequate 3B with time. Pretty big difference and we didnt' give him a chance to see if it is true (something I'm glad about).

[Fatter than Joey]

That said, I'm not sure how much I trust the Brewer's scouts in effectively evaluating defense, either.

 

Amen!

 

or pitching.

 

I am intrigued by your group's ideas and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

[Gopher74]

There's a small sample size warning for these, eccspecially Dillion, but I see nothing here that suggests Gwynn was good and Gross is poor on defense, theres actually quite the opposite. I think Gwynn is only seen as a good defender becuase he can't hit and is fast.

Well, you're not only using a tiny sample size to come to that conclusion, but you're using incredibly unreliable defensive metric's to come to it.

 

I understand that judging a players ability by simply watching it can be mis-leading, but the game's also not played on paper using a quarter of a seasons worth of defensive metric's.

I think that it's fairly easy to use that good old fashion visual "scouting" that's so frowned upon on here to come to the conclusion that Gwynn's a superior defender to Gabe Gross. I don't think that Gabe Gross is a poor defender by any means, but I do think that Gwynn's a very good one.

 

Not to mention, there's a reason that pretty much every scouting report on Tony Gwynn Jr has cited exceptional defensive skills as his main strength, written by people far more informed then most of us on here.

 

[Gopher74]

That said, I'm not sure how much I trust the Brewer's scouts in effectively evaluating defense, either.

or pitching.

Wow. Reading the opinion's of many on here, you'd think that we have a pretty terrible group of scouts, and player development people.

 

Then throw in John Briggs opinion on the current state of our farm system, and it'll be a miracle if we ever develop another player, or that we've ever developed one in the first place.

 

 

 

I guess I don't know about everyone else, but I happen to be pretty happy with the direction of this current Brewers team, and thrilled with the state of our farm system, and even happier with the players we've already developed. I don't know how many teams in the big leagues have the potential of having 4 home grown starting pitchers on a team that has a very real chance to be in the playoffs this year(Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, Villanueva if they all start and they all almost definitely will at least at some point).

 

[logan82]

Gopher74 wrote:

Wow. Reading the opinion's of many on here, you'd think that we have a pretty terrible group of scouts, and player development people.

Not the case at all. I think most people are pretty happy with our drafting/scouting department. There is a difference between thinking our scouting department is bad and thinking they do some things better than others. Outside of Hart and Hardy, and people question his defense, none of the players we have brought up are good defenders. I think it is fair to say that our scouting/drafting has been really heavy towards offense with little regard to defense.

 

Maybe they have just been unlucky with pitchers, but to this point we have been much better at acquiring offense than defense or pitching. Villanueva was not drafted by the Brewers. He was acquired through trade. Our scouting has been pretty good with pitchers in the minors, but not so good with scouting amatuers.

[Gopher74]

Not the case at all. I think most people are pretty happy with our drafting/scouting department. is a difference between think our scouting department is bad and thinking they do some things better than others. Outside of Hart and Hardy, and people question his defense, none of the players we have brought up are good defenders. I think it is fair to say that our scouting/drafting has been really heavy towards offense with little regard to defense. There

 

Maybe they have just been unlucky with pitchers, but to this point we have been much better at acquiring offense than wither defense or pitching. Villanueva was not drafted by the Brewers. He was acquired through trade. Our scouting has been pretty good with pitchers in the minors, but not so good with scouting amatuers.

Well the point on Villanueva stands as for him not being totally "home grown", however, credit has to be given for the simple fact that they got him for next to nothing, and they stuck with him while few considered him a prospect.

 

Either way, when you say that the Brewers can't scout pitchers, and they can't scout defensive players, then you're left with a farm system that can only do one thing. Now I understand them looking more at power than defense because frankly, it's something that can't be taught and it's something that can't be developed as readily.

 

And I don't agree that it hasn't been good with scouting amateurs. At least not in the recent past. Gallardo, Rogers, Jeffress, Inman, Bradock, Parra, Villanueva, and several others all turned out to be legit talents. The fact that some of them have had set backs does not mean that the Brewers are not good at scouting amateur's, it simply means that they haven't all been lucky.

 

Not to mention, we also have a few defensive players who are very good in the minors. Several OF'ers, Escobar, Gwynn Jr, whoever, but that's not a fair rap. It's really been Prince which is just fine because A-he's a 1st basemen, and B-because he's so great offensively.

Weeks who is a great athlete and is developing into a nice fielder.

And Braun who is also a great athlete and who may very well turn into a very good defensive LF'er.

[TooLiveBrew]

Either way, when you say that the Brewers can't scout pitchers, and they can't scout defensive players...

 

As far as I can tell, you're the only one that's claiming these absolutes. No one has said we can/can't, just that they question it as a strength (and have some valid claims/concerns).

[Gopher74]

As far as I can tell, you're the only one that's claiming these absolutes. No one has said we can/can't, just that they question it as a strength (and have some valid claims/concerns).

And now we're back to arguing semantics.

 

I'm sorry, I don't know how you can say that you don't think the Brewers are good at scouting pitchers. Is that better?

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, because then that's a questionable statement. But since you're in no mood to discuss, I won't either.

[TerraceReserved]

Well, you're not only using a tiny sample size to come to that conclusion, but you're using incredibly unreliable defensive metric's to come to it.

I understand that judging a players ability by simply watching it can be mis-leading, but the game's also not played on paper using a quarter of a seasons worth of defensive metric's.

I think that it's fairly easy to use that good old fashion visual "scouting" that's so frowned upon on here to come to the conclusion that Gwynn's a superior defender to Gabe Gross. I don't think that Gabe Gross is a poor defender by any means, but I do think that Gwynn's a very good one.

 

Not to mention, there's a reason that pretty much every scouting report on Tony Gwynn Jr has cited exceptional defensive skills as his main strength, written by people far more informed then most of us on here.

 

 

And scouts still think Derek Jeter is a good defender. Defense is so subjective, you may see a couple really good plays and think a guys good, but in reality that may have been a ball that a good defender could have made standing up. It could be that becuase of the small sample it's just a fluke, and maybe Gwynn really is better. But imo perception of defense is a whole lot more unreliable than any defensive metric.