What if Gwynn Rakes?

[Ennder]

top 5 rotation? ERA was 8th in NL, IP was 10th, whip was 12th. Don't know how you can say they were top 5.

FIP was 3rd, DER was 13th, plus/minus was 13th. The pitching was great, the defense was terrible. You cannot begin to understand pitching metrics until you split defense out of the equation.

 

Now if you want to qualify statements with pitching+defense we were not top 5 at all, but you have to keep in mind teams like the Cubs had their defense let in roughly 80 fewer runs compared to us before making that judgement. If we had just swapped our pitching with the Cubs on the year they would have had a lower ERA with our pitching and their defense than they had with their pitching and their defense.

[bullox]

While we're on the topic of "What if Gwynn Rakes?" (That is what this thread is, right?) I was kinda wondering, "What if I Win Powerball?"

[logan82]

TGJ has been outhit through the minors by Gallardo. Small sample on Gallardo's part though

Which of the following players would you prefer on your MLB team? The top numbers are TGJ, the bottom Gross.

 

.272/.348/.344/.692

.286/.380/.449/.829

 

Edit: I should point out those are minor league stats for both as neither has enough plate appearances in the majors to draw much from.

[Tbadder]

In all honesty I'd rather have the numbers on the top given that I believe one player has the ability to still develop and the one on the bottom I believe to have topped out. Now, if all things were equal, obviously I'd take the bottom guy. But, and this is an exception to the rule, when you're dealing with a historically bad defensive team, and the guy on the top is clearly better, which I believe he is, then that gives more reason to use the top player. And in addition, if the top player gets really hot early two years in a row, I might be able to deal him to another club when the starter returns. So in the end I'd take a bit of a chance with the top guy.

[endaround]

Gwynn just isn't that good defensively. Gwynn's RZR was .829, Hall's was .854, Cameron .894 in 2007. Gwynn's career he's at .842. Yes its a small sample but there's nothign there to suggest he's a great defender. Gross has played CF better than Gwynn while in Milwaukee

[TCSM]

Its not going to matter if he rakes or not. Once Cameron is available he will be playing over him.

[Fatter than Joey]

If Gwynn rakes, and it ups his value, trade him. His value probably wouldn't be any higher.

 

This was my thought exactly.

 

Gwynn just isn't that good defensively.

 

Yes -- and he doesn't make contact well, he isn't a great basestealer, and he doesn't get on base, and many other things that people assume that he does, because he can't hit a ball into the OF.

 

I think TGJ is a great 4th or 5th OFer. If TGJ plays well during Cameron's suspension, he either makes a great trade bait, or a decent bench-player.

 

Will he steal time from Cameron? -- No. Even I don't think Ned is that silly.

[crewcuts]

Just want to chip in on the Gwynn Jr. take...The salient points have all been covered. Gwynn is a nice 4th or 5th outfielder, period. His glove ISN'T any better than Gross and Gross hits righties very well. Gwynn does add a small ball element that this team desperately needs to improve upon. He bunted well last year and made things happen even though it wasn't necessarily through hits. I hope he starts well to up his trade value and provide us with speed we lack..

 

To touch on the other discussion.. The situational hitting last year was poor. But moving Estrada out was a step in the right direction. I'm not sold on Kendall other than the fact that he calls a better game and will hustle more. But Kendall, Hardy, an improved Weeks and Cameron is going to make this team look much better. The amount of four and five out innings we allowed last year was agonizing.

[twobrewers]

Yes -- and he doesn't make contact well

Agreed. I don't see much use for a slap hitter than has a hard time slapping the ball.

 

Gwynn strikes out way to much for someone with no power.

Gwynn struck out around 1/3AB.

[MJLiverock]

Gross is just above hack level in the outfield. He has a great arm but takes horrid routes on the ball. How many balls have to be hit over is head and missplays does he have to have? It is like the Brady Clark syndrom. Just because he isn't overweight or looks like he should be a decent outfielder doesn't make him a good CF.

[rluzinski]

How many balls have to be hit over is head and missplays does he have to have?

 

Apparently 3. Seriously though, I remember Gross making a few terrible plays and the rest of the time he was fine. He was actually pretty good in 06'.

 

I call that the "use three plays to judge defensive ability" syndrome.

[Mr QL]

Damn, you guys are some haters. :-!

[TooLiveBrew]

In all honesty I'd rather have the numbers on the top given that I believe one player has the ability to still develop and the one on the bottom I believe to have topped out.

 

Tony Gwynn Jr. is not, nor will he magically become, anywhere near the hitter his father was. I think it's time everyone let that sink in.

 

If TGJ were an incredible defender, it'd help cancel out how bad he is with the lumber. Trouble is, he's just 'above-avg.' to 'good', which isn't nearly enough to make up for the huge lead Gross's offense gives him. In summary, TGJ is poor with the bat, and above-avg. to good in the OF... Gross is above-avg. to good offensively, and average to below-avg. in the field. No matter how you slice that, the better player is Gross.

 

Plus, Gwynn's 25 this season (Gross - 28), so it's not like you can frame the argument about how much room Tony has left to grow.

[xisxisxis]

I'm not a big fan of TGJ, but I would be very happy if he puts up great numbers in some limited action during the first 25 games. As pointed out, that would definitely increase his trade value. Unlike Nedly, I won't be swayed by a few spring training AB or a 10-15 game stretch of competence into believing that Gwynn's role is anything more than a reserve OF. I hope that Melvin will have a short leash with Yost and make the decisions for Nedly if we are about to be Yosted again with too much playing time to the "hot" hand.

[mothershipconnection]

In all honesty I'd rather have the numbers on the top given that I believe one player has the ability to still develop and the one on the bottom I believe to have topped out.

 

Ceiling really shouldn't be a factor here. We aren't talking about grooming a player to be the CF of the future, we're talking about a guy being a sub for 25 games and then sitting back on the bench. We can't reasonably expect Gwynn to "grow" or "realize his potential" in 25 games.

[BrewCityUnit]

I think we all can agree that TGJ will play some role with the team this season. From what I have heard the plans are to keep him on the 25 man roster all season.

[MNBrew]

Tony Gwynn Jr. is not, nor will he magically become, anywhere near the hitter his father was. I think it's time everyone let that sink in.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious with a word choice that suggests a rather questionable tone. I don't think most folks in this thread have been suggesting that he'll become the hitter his father was.

 

 

TLB, with Gwynn you'll likely prove most correct. But part of the fun is being a fan and pulling for the guys you like to pull for, however realistic or not those hopes may be. Heck, as we all know, just being a die-hard Brewers fan has taken an above-average dose of optimism for the past 15 years. There's nothing wrong with wanting to believe Gwynn's that good a player yet unless you're Ned Yost filling out the daily lineup card.

 

If Tony Gwynn, jr., were half the hitter his father was, he'd already have been an everyday major-league starter. However, his track record gives ample testimony why he's not been.

 

[Zycho32]

Just how many Sons have managed to live up to the reputation their fathers made in MLB anyway?

[RightFieldCoder]

My question is that if for some reason TGJ starts a game that Gallardo is pitching, should we put YoGa in the 8th hole in front of Tony?

[trwi7]

Just how many Sons have managed to live up to the reputation their fathers made in MLB anyway?

 

Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Bonds are the two names that jump out to me.

[Scooter1027]

Just how many Sons have managed to live up to the reputation their fathers made in MLB anyway?

Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Bonds are the two names that jump out to me.

And I'll go ahead and say that Prince is well on his way http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[mothershipconnection]

Just how many Sons have managed to live up to the reputation their fathers made in MLB anyway?

 

There are actually a few.

 

LINK

[Gopher74]

Just want to chip in on the Gwynn Jr. take...The salient points have all been covered. Gwynn is a nice 4th or 5th outfielder, period. His glove ISN'T any better than Gross and Gross hits righties very well. Gwynn does add a small ball element that this team desperately needs to improve upon. He bunted well last year and made things happen even though it wasn't necessarily through hits. I hope he starts well to up his trade value and provide us with speed we lack..

I think given how much power we have on this team, our team speed is exceptional. Not necessarily in terms of SB's(though we should have a fair number of those), but just in terms of 1st to 3rd type speed. Hart, Weeks, Hardy, Braun and Hall all have above average to exceptional speed. Throw Cameron into that mix when he's healthy, Gross has good speed, and Kendall can run very well for a catcher. In fact, the only place we don't have good speed is 1st base, and I think Prince makes up for his lack of speed with his 50 Bomb's.

 

As for the "small ball", I don't see that as being a very important part of the game in the manner in which you describe it. I think the only position that I really care about bunting ability is in the pitchers. I don't want to give up outs in front of Prince/Braun or Hart. I definitely don't want to, and I don't think it's wise to in front of Cameron or Hall since they K a lot and you're likely just lowering your chance at scoring a run. Overall I just think it's overrated.

[Gopher74]

Gross is just above hack level in the outfield. He has a great arm but takes horrid routes on the ball. How many balls have to be hit over is head and missplays does he have to have? It is like the Brady Clark syndrom. Just because he isn't overweight or looks like he should be a decent outfielder doesn't make him a good CF.

This is why it's not very viable to juse the old "from what I see" line of thinking doesn't work as well as using actual stats.

 

Now I agree that defensive metrics aren't that reliable, but they are more reliable than using a couple plays to evaluate a players ability.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

Just how many Sons have managed to live up to the reputation their fathers made in MLB anyway?

 

Buddy Bell

Ned Yost IV