What if Gwynn Rakes?

[DrWood]

Anthony started out hot last year. What if he's hitting .333 with a .400 OBP when Cameron becomes available? Just bench him anyway?

[Ennder]

If Yost is smart Gwynn won't get enough AB's for his numbers to mean anything in those first 25 games. No reason at all for Gwynn to start over Gross against righties, slide Hart to CF and Gross in RF.

[And That]

I'd like to see Kapler make the team out of spring over Gwynn, have him platoon with Gross in CF and then be jettisoned or whatever once Cameron is reinstated. I'd put Gwynn in AAA. So I hope he has a .400 OBP in AAA, though I doubt he will.

[pitchleague]

but that's not the question--whether Yost gives him the at-bats or not.

 

I think, hypothetically, that if Gwynn would get to play for 20 of those 25 games (not going to happen, I know, but bear with me) and he hit like .320 or better over those games (app. 80 PA likely) I'd be tempted to keep with the hot hand while you ease Cameron into games again.

 

This would be very tough. What if Braun is hitting extremely well, as is Hart, and the platoon of Gross/Gwynn. And Cameron comes in and stinks up the joint for his first week. Do you go back with what you had? Or let him grow into his season?

 

How about the other way around? What if Braun starts the year ice cold (we're talking a 4-for-93 April), as does Hart and the other outfielders? Then what would you do?

 

This is all hypothetical, I know, but it makes for interesting discussion.

 

I know that I would, in all cases stated above, go with Braun, Cameron, Hart (with Gross/Gwynn for those 25-games) for a good month and a half to 2 months (Memorial Day, at least) and see from there.

[And That]

but that's not the question--whether Yost gives him the at-bats or not.

Well, it speaks to the rationality of the question. TGJ is as likely to get a lot of meaningful at-bats during the Cameron suspension as Nix is, or as Gross is. Or maybe even as Kapler is. Or as Dillon is, if you switch out Hart to CF when we face lefties.

 

What if the third or fourth best CF we have during Cameron's suspension does well? I guess it doesn't matter a lot in the grand scheme of things.

[splitterpfj]

To answer Dr Wood's question, yes, just bench him anyway. There is no way Gwynn should start over Braun, Cameron or Hart, even if he does have a hot start. I would love to see Gwynn grab the CF job and do well for those early games, but I think our projected starting outfield has a chance to be outstanding once Cameron is back.

[TooLiveBrew]

What if he's hitting .333 with a .400 OBP when Cameron becomes available? Just bench him anyway?

 

Then he's an awesome player to have on your bench. That'd be well above league-average, and since it's safer to assume that Gwynn would hit more like he has in his 2000 professional AB. If he came out hot, it'd be in about 100 A, and probably he'd be due to come back to earth. I wouldn't consider not starting Tony as an insult or a negative.

[Invader3K]

Let's face it, Gwynn isn't going to "rake" anyway.

[DrWood]

just fyi, the .333 Ave, .400 OBP was about what he had the first two months of last season (iirc, in about 80 PA). To say he couldn't do that again defies history.

[TerraceReserved]

just fyi, the .333 Ave, .400 OBP was about what he had the first two months of last season (iirc, in about 80 PA). To say he couldn't do that again defies history.

 

Ya, it's possible for him to do that again. But would you want him to continue playing if he did that? My geuss is he would dramatically drop off in his performance. Let's see if he did. From June till the end of the year, Gwynn hit .167/.237/.222. Both are small samples, but my answer is a big no to letting him play if he started out "hot."

[JohnBriggs12]

The other alternatives in the first 25 games, namely either playing Gross in RF and Hart in CF, or Kapler in CF don't do much for me. We pretty much know what we have with Gross. He's a nice bat off the bench and can fill in nicely for a few days, but he's not a great defensive outfielder and can't hit lefties enough to ever consider him an everyday player.

 

As for Kapler. He was last seen washing out in Japan two year ago. To expect him to go in there and produce much is unrealistic.

 

Dillon at third and Hall in CF might be the best combo, but I think they'll want Hall to reaclimate himself to the infield.

 

I think this is a great opportunity to see what they have in Gwynn. Is he a guy who could be a solid 4th outfielder? We know he can handle the job defensively. We know he'll make some contact and we know he can run. I think it's quite possible that over 25 games he'll hit .300 and get on at a reasonable .340-.350 pace. If he does that, he'll either have value as a bench player or useful in a deal down the road. I don't see major league ready talent with speed at the upper levels of the organization.

[sheetswannabe]

Can Gwynn Catch?

 

Im just kidding obviously.

 

I think you keep him on the bench, and start him 30-40 games. I dont know why, but everyone here thinks Cameron is going to be a .300/.360 guy. I would love that, but I dont see it happening, why not Tony grab a few? GET HIM READY FOR NEXT YEAR!!

[And That]

Once Cameron is gone, Ryan or Corey are going into CF. Unless they pick up the '09 option for MC and then Ford, Gillespie, Cain, Moss, or any of the other guys we have who can play Cf prove they have a legit ML shot get there. TGJ simply can't hit. And his defense was called into question by a metric or two last year, though it was in few innings.

[Ennder]

just fyi, the .333 Ave, .400 OBP was about what he had the first two months of last season (iirc, in about 80 PA). To say he couldn't do that again defies history.

 

78 PA's into the season he had a .403 OBP and .794 OPS. Was all downhill from there posting an OBP of .224 and an OPS of .446 over his next 58 PA's.

 

Gross is capable of playing CF as is Hart. If the team honestly thinks Gwynn can be an everyday part of the team he needs to be down in the minors playing full time, if they think his upside is as a #4 OF then it makes sense to keep him on the roster.

[Brian the Automator]

If Gwynn rakes, and it ups his value, trade him. His value probably wouldn't be any higher.

[rluzinski]

If the Brewers had thought Gwynn was a realistic option to start in CF this year, they wouldn't have signed Cameron. It's inconceivable for me that Melvin would allow Cameron to be benched over 80 PA, no matter how good they were. I say, "allow" be because I could easily see Yost do it.

[billyhallfan]

i hope he does, than maybe some other team will inquire about him...

[TooLiveBrew]

The other alternatives in the first 25 games, namely either playing Gross in RF and Hart in CF, or Kapler in CF don't do much for me.

 

They should do more for you than TGJ, which is really all that matters in this case.

[Tbadder]

I for one want to see Gwynn excell. I want him to put up numbers that will make other teams take notice. For god's sakes he's a Brewer and I want every Brewer to kick some serious butt. Gywnn is still young enough to improve. On a team that is gargantuanly awful on defense, he's one of the few players that is above average. I think Gross and Hart in RF and CF would border on a travesty. With the bats we have, we can afford to use the better defender. If hitting is all that mattered then the Crew woulda been in the playoffs, and if the Brewers don't improve their defense then they will fail again.

[lukevan]

I think Gross and Hart in RF and CF would border on a travesty.

 

Yikes! I'd hate to see what Gwynn in CF could possibly be considered.

 

If Gwynn gets hot the first 25 games I say give him a few more PH opportunities than you would've previously. No way I consider starting him, though, over Gross against RHP. Against LHP, Hart slides to CF as he did several times last season and Dillon/Kapler plays RF. Gwynn plays solid defense but he's not as great as people think he is (the ol' can't-hit-must-be-great-defender chestnut) and Gross is not the butcher in the OF some make him out to be. He has a plus arm with passable speed, and plays fine in RF. Add to that his heavy advantage over Gwynn's offense and I just can't see Gwynn starting with Gross sitting very often.

[rluzinski]

I think Gross and Hart in RF and CF would border on a travesty. With the bats we have, we can afford to use the better defender. If hitting is all that mattered then the Crew woulda been in the playoffs, and if the Brewers don't improve their defense then they will fail again.

 

I've said this a million times, but there is no quota for any particular skill, whether it be pitching, defense, speed, offense, whatever. The team that scores more runs than the other team wins. Therefore, you want to use the players that maximizes runs scored and minimizes runs given up. So, the real question is, what's more valuable:

 

Offense: Gross vs. Gwynn

 

Here are their respective ZiPS projections (which considers minor league stats):

 

Gross: .264/.358/.426/.784

Gwynn: .260/.325/.328/.653

 

According to tangotiger, a rough way to convert OBP and SLG into runs above average is to use the following equation:

 

RAA = (1.7*OBP+SLE-1)*.25*PA

 

Over 20 starts and maybe 90 PA, I get the following:

 

Gross: +.8 RAA

Gwynn: -.2.7 RAA

 

Gwynn obviously adds some value on the base paths as well, although it's going to be pretty small over 20 games. the best base runners add around 1 run every 20 games... I'll give Gwynn half that. Gross might be worth somewhere around 3 runs over Gwynn in 20 games, offensively.

 

Defense: Gross in RF and Hart in CF vs. Hart in RF and Gwynn in CF

 

This is a lot harder to quantify. I'll take a wild stab at it. I'd consider Hart an average CF and an above average RF. Gross is average in RF (I know some would disagree with that). Gwynn is apparently well above average in CF. Accordinng to UZR, a great CF is maybe 25 runs above average over a season, or about 3 runs per 20 games. I'm not ready to hand Gwynn a gold glove award yet, so I would call him maybe 2 runs above average? Hart is maybe half a run better than Gross in RF over 20 games?

 

My wild guess put's it pretty close, with Gross edging Gwynn in the scenario outlined. More than likely, Gwynn and Gross will share some starts over that time, so there you go http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[MNBrew]

I for one want to see Gwynn excel. . . . On a team that is gargantuanly awful on defense, he's one of the few players that is above average. . . . If hitting is all that mattered then the Crew woulda been in the playoffs, and if the Brewers don't improve their defense then they will fail again.

Tbadder, I'm right with you on wanting to see Gwynn excel. He has improved his offense in the minors and had some very positive spurts in the bigs, but obviously he's not his father at the plate yet, either. Defensively, he was the Brewers' best outfielder until they signed Cameron.

My one point of disagreement with your post is one I keep bringing up in other threads: The Brewers' hitters collectively had a good year, but their offense overall was full of inconsistencies and inefficiencies. They hit for power big-time, but their situational hitting was NOT good. If they could've delivered even just a single here and there a few more times and still hit for the power they did, they would've made the playoffs.

Granted, their defense could've been a good deal better. But if the Brewers were even a remotely better RISP-hitting team, I don't think we would be looking nearly as much at their defense as the primary reason for their downfall in '07. My own opinion, which is sure to be torn apart and proven otherwise along the way, involves several areas in which little improvements could've easily made up the difference of the couple games we finished behind the Cubs:

1. While the Brewers' defense needs to be a good bit better this year, the BA thing and RISP -- general hitting and especially clutch hitting -- have been huge sore spots for this team for quite some time. If the hitting improves, the OBP improves, as do many other important numbers.

2. A little better selection at the plate -- taking a few more balls and not swinging-and-missing at a few more strikes (esp. the 2-strike pitches) -- would also do wonders.

 

3. Better defense is definitely a need. Team defense wasn't putrid beyond Braun, Fielder, & Hall's 1st two months in CF, but it also wasn't good enough.

 

4. If the SPs had pitched better and pitched more innings, the BP likely wouldn't have crapped out as badly.

5. If the BP had just flat-out better talent & overall production than it had last year, . . . . And so on.

 

You know, a better defense by itself is likely not going to be enough to put the Brewers over the top. Failure to improve on ALL the above items likely means we're still looking up at the first-place team in the NL Central.

 

And unless he's starting and playing everyday CF in Nashville, I hope Tony Gwynn's a part of this Brewers' team this year.

[Ennder]

They hit for power big-time, but their situational hitting was NOT good

 

107 OPS+ with RISP, 103 OPS+ with men on, 100 OPS+ with RISP, 2 outs. 103 OPS+ late and close. The weakest situation stat for the Brewers last year was their 98 OPS+ with nobody on.

 

While the Brewers' defense needs to be a good bit better this year, the BA thing and RISP -- general hitting and especially clutch hitting

 

Already touched on general clutch but AVG with RISP was .261, without RISP was .261 as expected. There was no difference.

 

2. A little better selection at the plate -- taking a few more balls and not swinging-and-missing at a few more strikes (esp. the 2-strike pitches) -- would also do wonders. /quote]

 

Wouldn't hurt I guess, it is hardly a big part of the offensive production though.

 

3. Better defense is definitely a need. Team defense wasn't putrid beyond Braun, Fielder, & Hall's 1st two months in CF, but it also wasn't good enough

 

Weeks was pretty terrible too, but I agree.

 

4. If the SPs had pitched better and pitched more innings, the BP likely wouldn't have crapped out as badly.

 

We had a top 5 rotation in the NL last year, the defense and bullpen sabotaged the rotation. It is very hard to put the innings into perspective when the defense continually made innings last longer than they should have.

 

5. If the BP had just flat-out better talent & overall production than it had last year, . . . . And so on.

 

I can agree with that and I think the BP is much deeper than last year, the closer just isn't as good.

[DrWood]

top 5 rotation? ERA was 8th in NL, IP was 10th, whip was 12th. Don't know how you can say they were top 5.

[TooLiveBrew]

ERA's a team stat. I'm sure Ennder means either xFIP, FIP, or both.