Brewers (bad) Defense

[Robideaux]

This is nothing new to anyone who followed the crew last season, but surprise, surprise the Brewers defense was pretty horrible. I ran across an article on Baseball Think Factory that attempted to determine the worst fielding players at each infield position. They used a stat called DRS (defensive runs saved). I have no idea how accurate it is or the methodology used to determine it, but it was remarkable how bad the Brewers infield was/is.

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/the_2007_calphalon_awards_infielders/

 

Fielder was 3rd worst in the NL (behind Howard and D. Young)

Weeks was worst in the majors at second base (so much for the argument that "if we had just let Braun have more time at third he would improve like Weeks did")

Braun was 2nd worst in the NL (he would have been worse than Cabrera if he played the entire season though)

Now here was the shocker for me:

Hardy was second worst in the NL at SS (behind only Hanley Ramirez)

 

Also, in the "doesn't exactly bode well for this year category"

Kendall was a part of the Cubs/Padres Catcher collection (Rob Bowen, Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall and Bard) who put up the worst DRS in baseball

 

Overall, the Brewers infield finished at -52 DRS-- Marlins were the worst at -53

[And That]

It certainly is a legitimate gripe that the Melvin/Jack Z. era has produced a ton of talent from the farm, but that barely any of it can field. I'm not entirely sure if this is a result of a focus on offense without regard to defense or just, those were the guys that fell to us. It's also possible that, for some reason, the guys Zdurenciek has assembled aren't able or as willing to gauge amateur defense as well as other clubs. I don't think that's it... it is just interesting (and problematic) that the team has bolstered it's major league club with such strong bats and such week gloves.

 

Weeks, Braun and Fielder don't surprise me. Hardy does. I saw him play defense in the minors and it just may have been that his lack of range wasn't as apparent as it should have been given his smoothness. Given that I always thought Hardy would be really great on defense, it's going to sound rather myopic that I still think he had a good year at short. Clearly the stats don't bare that out. This isn't the only instance where stats have found Hardy out defensively. Moving Hardy to second sometime down the line now clearly seems like an imperative switch.

[Ennder]

Different systems seem to disagree quite a bit on Hardy. He was below average on in zone plays and above average on out of zone plays and not everyone agrees on the proper method of weighing those.

[1992casey]

Unlike Braun--who was panned by all of them, Hardy does seem to test the mettle of the 'designer' defensive stats.

[And That]

By my standards, an ideal defensive alignment in a few years would show Weeks at third, Hardy at second and Escobar or someone more offensively potent at SS. With all the talent this team has coming up, I have a difficult time seeing Hall on this team past '08 or '09 at the latest.

[TooLiveBrew]

it is just interesting (and problematic) that the team has bolstered it's major league club with such strong bats and such week gloves.

Freudian slip, or incredibly well-placed pun? Details at 10.

[endaround]

Why? Hardy is the one that's likely to cost more and isn't much better defensively.

[sbrylski]

I have a pretty stong feeling Hardy is only here through 2009. The way they praise Escobar, and how well his progression should fit in with Hardy's FA clock winding down, it would make a natural transistion.

 

I don't see Weeks ever moving from 2B. I can't picture him being very good at 3B either, and hopefully he makes some strides over the next two seasons in which we can be fairly certain he'll still be in the MIF.

[Tbadder]

I'm not surprised. I never really thought Hardy played the ball well no matter how smooth he looked. To me the ball gets under his glove an awful lot when he's cruising to his left. And I don't think he has arm enough to throw out runners when he gets to the ball moving right, which he's much more comfortable with. I'm also not a fan of our outfield defense. Hart to me is one of the stiffest players in the league, and I think he's really inconsistent going back on the ball. He hesitates, decides on a plan, and then makes his move.

[DrWood]

I thought Hardy has a plus arm. Not a renteria type arm, but distinctly better than average. Anyone want to back me up?

[sbrylski]

Hart to me is one of the stiffest players in the league, and I think he's really inconsistent going back on the ball. He hesitates, decides on a plan, and then makes his move.

 

A lot of metrics say Hart is actually pretty damn good out there, and about average in his time in CF.

[logan82]

I thought Hardy has a plus arm. Not a renteria type arm, but distinctly better than average. Anyone want to back me up?

Yeah I would agree on that. My impression of Hardy is, above average arm, gets to all the balls he should, but doesn't have good range. You won't see him make spectacular plays. Maybe a lot of those out of zone plays were from shifts. Depending on how they are figured, shifts could really mess with defensive metrics. I believe Weeks had quite a few out of zone plays as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe a lot of those out of zone plays were from shifts. Depending on how they are figured, shifts could really mess with defensive metrics. I believe Weeks had quite a few out of zone plays as well.

 

I like defensive metrics for providing a relative idea of performance. There are so many things to work into them still... OOZ numbers basically skew the numbers big-time, but I'm sure in two years, there'll be a much better grasp.

[Tbadder]

Hart to me is one of the stiffest players in the league, and I think he's really inconsistent going back on the ball. He hesitates, decides on a plan, and then makes his move.

 

A lot of metrics say Hart is actually pretty damn good out there, and about average in his time in CF.

And I have no reason to doubt those metrics, but I have no reason to doubt my empirical evidence either. So that maybe there are kinds of balls hit to him that he has problems on, while others he doesn't. And while JJ looks smooth out there, stats are starting to call his defense into question, so maybe both sets of empirical evidence are wrong. I can accept that for sure.

 

But I really hate Hart in CF, and while I might be defferential to the metrics in right, I'm not gonna give in when he plays CF. Gross on the other hand I just don't plain like in the outfield. He seems average at best. I want him as my late innings pinch hitter.

 

But...if this was the Cubs, and I didn't have to worry about defense overall, then I'd accept the Hart/Gross outfield over the Gwynn/Hart outfield.

 

I mean one day aren't the Brewer pitchers gonna wake up and call the everyday players to task. They are seriously putting a crimp on their numbers and possibly their careers in the case of average to marginal pitchers.

[Ennder]

The two systems I like to look at for defense show Hart at -3.5 runs and -1 runs in CF(in small samples). They have Hart at +2.4 and +5 in RF. They generally use a rule that CF is 5 runs harder to play defensively which seems to fit that data as well. Another study I read had Hart as the worst arm of all RF's in 2007 which doesn't surprise me since he isn't all that experienced in the OF. I don't think Gwynn is a great fielder though, he's pretty average out there in CF. His defensive reputation seems to be the kind that is based on the fact he cannot hit and he is fast so he must be good.

[Ennder]

They did the outfield version of this today.

 

Worst LF in the NL was no big surprise, Carlos Lee. Worst RF was Xavier Nady but he wasn't really that bad, nobody was terrible. Worst CF was of course Bill Hall which this system didn't like out there at all.

 

So we took worst or 2nd to worst at 5 of 8 defensive positions and I have to guess we were only significantly above average in one of them. There is why we lost the division right there. Cameron, Hall and Braun moving is going to pay huge dividends.

 

 

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/the_2007_calphalon_awards_outfielders/