Trade with the Mariners

[jackalope02ca]

In reality 5 years from now Jeffress is working at 7-11 because he needs a job as he smoked up all his money, Escobar is a no hit defensive whiz playing in San Francisco taking over for Vizquel, Gamel is an average player for the Brewers and Manny is finishing up his 2nd year of medical school as he decided to become a doctor as he already has so much intimate knowledge about anatomy from all his injuries and surgeries.

Sometimes we lose insight on this board, myself included, in that prospects are just prospects and nothing more. Think back a few years and how such a great player many of us though Brad Nelson was going to be. Don't you wished we had traded him now. There are thousands of examples out there.

If you can get an ace you trade your entire top 10 prospects if that's what it takes. That's what Bedard is.

[DrWood]

Bedard was an ace in exactly one season, 2007, and he missed a few starts at the end of that season. Yeah, he did great, but I'd give odds that 2007 is his career year. He'll strike out lots of guys again, but his ERA (for example) will probably go back up to the 3.6 to 4.0 range. Since I think Parra could do that, if given the chance, obviously I think it would be a bad trade.

 

I wasn't auditioning for GM, because I think the one we have has done better than I could, or for that matter, anyone else on this board. If you think your 11 month old can do better than him, you are only elaborating on your lack of perspective.

 

A decent trade for Bedard would be something like Capuano, Vargas, Gamel (or escobar or Jeffress), and a pitching prospect that would fall into the 11-20 range of prospects. Trading just prospects increases the overload in veteran starters, and harms the team's ability to sustain itself into the future.

[jackalope02ca]

No offense Dr. Wood but if you offered that to Baltimore for Berard you'd either be laughed at hysterically or the phone would be slammed down.

 

Look at what the Cubs were allegedly offering for him and Roberts and got rejected.

 

Parra by the way has about a 1% chance of making the team out of spring training if the roster doesn't change between now and then. It just isn't going to happen. He will likely be called up May/June depending on injuries and his performance. We aren't paying Vargas 3 million to have him sit over Parra. That's just the reality of the game. I'm as high as anyone on Parra. He's our best prospect with the most upside in my opinion so I'm not knocking the guy.

[twobrewers]

He'll strike out lots of guys again, but his ERA (for example) will probably go back up to the 3.6 to 4.0 range.

First off, with our horrible defense - we need a pitcher who strikes out a ton.

 

Second, I cannot fathom his ERA raising with a move from the AL East to the NL Central. The talent gap is huge - plus no DH.

[Gopher74]

Umm....The M's are in the AL West and while Bedard would be quite the complement to King Felix, his health is far from a guarantee. Furthermore, Clement has 40HR potential at the most difficult of positions and Morrow was in the majors within a year of being drafted.

Obviously, I mis spoke.

 

Other than that, I'm not sure what point you're making. I also think that you're overstating the case a touch on Clement. I don't think he's going to be a 40 HR a year guy, more likely 25-35. Still, very good, but again, I'm not sure what point you're making.

 

[Gopher74]

If you can get an ace you trade your entire top 10 prospects if that's what it takes. That's what Bedard is.

 

Maybe. If you want that window that someone claimed was only 1 or 2 years to become a reality, sure. Other than that, no, you do not. That's absolutely ridiculous.

 

Sometimes we lose insight on this board, myself included, in that prospects are just prospects and nothing more. Think back a few years and how such a great player many of us though Brad Nelson was going to be. Don't you wished we had traded him now. There are thousands of examples out there.

And Weeks, Hardy, Prince, Gallardo, Hart, Parra, Braun, Hall, ect..ect..ect.

 

Second, we "lose insight"as you call it, or "realize we're a small market team and the way we continue to win" as I call it, is because we need prospects, and we've done a better job than any team in the game in the recent history of developing our own players.

 

You're taking one example of a player who got hurt and saw his career decline rapidly(before having a bit of a resurgence I might add). That doesn't mean you take your entire farm system and throw it at one player because we're suppose to be good. Most would look at this current team and realize we're suppose to be good BECAUSE we didn't do that, and that now would be a poor time to decide to do so. Post a reply - Yuku

In reality 5 years from now Jeffress is working at 7-11 because he needs a job as he smoked up all his money, Escobar is a no hit defensive whiz playing in San Francisco taking over for Vizquel, Gamel is an average player for the Brewers and Manny is finishing up his 2nd year of medical school as he decided to become a doctor as he already has so much intimate knowledge about anatomy from all his injuries and surgeries.

 

Yes, this is certainly "reality". I'm sure that 4 of our top 5 prospects in one of the top 5-10 farm systems in baseball will all flame out after we'd put an entire team of prospects on the field. Second, a defensive whiz isn't a bad thing, not to mention Escobar certainly isn't a "no hit.....ect.." that you label him. The guy just hit .306 as a 21 year old playing in High A and AA ball.

 

Anyway, I guess it's a difference of opinion. I'd rather have a team that's good for the next 10 years rather than sell out and hope that Bedard is healthy this year and that he "might" help us make the WS this year, something we've got a chance to do without him.

[Gopher74]

He'll strike out lots of guys again, but his ERA (for example) will probably go back up to the 3.6 to 4.0 range.

First off, with our horrible defense - we need a pitcher who strikes out a ton.

 

Second, I cannot fathom his ERA raising with a move from the AL East to the NL Central. The talent gap is huge - plus no DH.

First-Our defense is far from "horrible" right now. In fact, this year it should be about league average with Braun off of 3rd, and Cameron in CF as a GG'er.

 

Second-The difference from going to the AL to the NL is suppose to be .2, however the point that Drwood is trying to make is that he believe that Bedard's season was a career high last year, and that's very possibly the case. He is a guy who has been around 4.00 most of his career, and has missed starts in 3 of his last 4 seasons. I'm not saying he wouldn't be a great addition, but not for 4 of our top 5 prospects, and it's certainly not that hard to imagine that his ERA would go up next year.

 

I guess I don't see why it's so hard to fathom his ERA going back to near what it was any other season in the big leagues, or having him pitch like he has in any other season.

 

 

[danzig6767]

Bedard was an ace in exactly one season, 2007, and he missed a few starts at the end of that season. Yeah, he did great, but I'd give odds that 2007 is his career year. He'll strike out lots of guys again, but his ERA (for example) will probably go back up to the 3.6 to 4.0 range.

Based on what?

 

His numbers have progressively got better with each year in the majors and he's in his prime. Sure it's possible that his numbers will take a jump backwards, but he has great stuff and i see zero reason to think it's more likely that he'd regress production wise, especially given he'd be moving from the AL to the NL.

 

Just saying i'll give odds or probably his ERA would go back to 3.60-4.00 without any reasoning isn't very convincing.

[twobrewers]

First-Our defense is far from "horrible" right now. In fact, this year it should be about league average with Braun off of 3rd, and Cameron in CF as a GG'er.

Maybe not "horrible" anymore. But I am confident that it will still be below league average.

 

Prince is below average. Weeks is below average. JJ is right around average. And Hall's time at 3B was a little below average.

[DrWood]

so, no one else expects a guy that does far better at age 28 than he previously did to have a pretty good chance to regress to the mean? I think he'll still be fine, barring a significant injury, just not as good as 2007.

Most players have their "career year" somewhere between age 26 and 30.

[Gopher74]

Based on what?

 

His numbers have progressively got better with each year in the majors and he's in his prime. Sure it's possible that his numbers will take a jump backwards, but he has great stuff and i see zero reason to think it's more likely that he'd regress production wise, especially given he'd be moving from the AL to the NL.

 

Just saying i'll give odds or probably his ERA would go back to 3.60-4.00 without any reasoning isn't very convincing.

Based on the fact that a 3.60 ERA would still be his second best ERA of his career. I know it's going against the consensus on here, but I don't think it a outrageous idea that a guy who's been hurt 3 of the last 4 years, and has had one great year may just regress.

 

He might also have a great season, I don't know, but a little bit too much praise is being heaped on a guy who's had one great season, and then has been pretty much a number 3 the rest of his career.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

The move from Camden Yards to Safeco alone should provide a noticeable drop in ERA, not to mention getting out of the AL East. Not sure either way on how I feel about Bedard, since I don't know much about him... so I'll stay outta that part.

[Gopher74]

The move from Camden Yards to Safeco alone should provide a noticeable drop in ERA, not to mention getting out of the AL East. Not sure either way on how I feel about Bedard, since I don't know much about him... so I'll stay outta that part.

I think the point is more just what type of pitcher he is. He hasn't moved yet, and you could speculate about what each park may do for him, but the biggest issue is if he's going to throw as well next year.

 

I also think that a little too much can be made of the division change sometimes. Yes, it's absolutely a factor, no question. Going from the AL Central, which I think is a tougher division to the NLC is going to be a benefit, but I think that people often think it's suppose to be a bigger difference. From what I understand, the difference from the AL to the NL is suppose to be a .2 ERA drop. So a pitcher who has a 4.00 ERA in the AL would be a 3.80 in the NL. Obviously that doesn't always work out.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

It's just that with Bos & NYY both, you're going to see $200 mil.-ish payrolls for years to come (and the depth of talent that comes along with that). Safeco is a big pitcher's park, no matter how he's pitching it'd help him.

[Gopher74]

It's just that with Bos & NYY both, you're going to see $200 mil.-ish payrolls for years to come (and the depth of talent that comes along with that). Safeco is a big pitcher's park, no matter how he's pitching it'd help him.

Yes, I understand that. What I don't understand is what relevance it has. He's not in Seattle, and if anything, the make believe park we'd be talking about in this thread is and was Miller Park because in the latest scenario, he'd be coming to Milwaukee, hence the latest argument.

 

And Boston hasn't even cracked 150 yet. It's a bit early to call them a "200-ish" payroll when the highest they've hit is 143. 57 million dollars is the total team payroll of plenty of teams.