Hardy/Bush arbitration numbers (Latest... Bush signs: $2.55 million; see reply #90)

[Ennder]

Hardy requested a salary of $3.05 million and Bush asked for $3 million even today when arbitration-eligible players exchanged figures with their clubs. The Brewers offered Hardy $2.4 million and Bush $2.25 million

 

http://blogs.jsonline.com/brewers/archive/2008/01/18/hardy-bush-each-seek-3-million.aspx

 

Seems pretty reasonable.

 

 

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Edit: thread title & transaction posticon --1992

 

Jump to Bush signing: reply #90

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[TooLiveBrew]

Cue Hardy signing at 1 yr./$2.73 mil., & Bush at 1 yr./$2.63 mil.

[monty57]

Sounds fairly reasonable to me. Not to hijack the thread, but it's scary to see Cabrera and Texiara signing for $11-12MM in their final arby year. I don't want to think what Prince and Braun will get in a few years if inflation keeps pushing contracts up like it has recently.

[Big Reed]

Ryan howard asked for $10 million. You can bet Prince will be asking for at least that much. That's why I've said the Brewers' window of opportunity is smaller than people believe. the bush and hardy figures were a lot less than i expected them to ask for. hardy was an all star last year. Bush has had a couple of solid seasons. I guess we can be glad they are not free agents.

[logan82]

Ryan howard asked for $10 million. You can bet Prince will be asking for at least that much. That's why I've said the Brewers' window of opportunity is smaller than people believe. the bush and hardy figures were a lot less than i expected them to ask for. hardy was an all star last year. Bush has had a couple of solid seasons. I guess we can be glad they are not free agents.

That's why when people said we had money this year I always said we have to look at the future when our players are gonna cost us. Probably a big reason we have a one year pen.

 

TLB looks to have it right. They will probably settle around the middle before the hearing. I was expecting Hardy to ask for rmore.

[crewcrazy]

Wow, with an All-Star game appearance I was expecting J.J. to ask for something closer to $4 or $5 million. I'd jump at the chance to sign Hardy for around $2.75M and Bush for around $2.5M.

[thebruce44]

Wow, with an All-Star game appearance I was expecting J.J. to ask for something closer to $4 or $5 million. I'd jump at the chance to sign Hardy for around $2.75M and Bush for around $2.5M.

 

$4-5 mill for your first year of arbitration is still pretty unheard of outside of Willis, isn't it?

[Gopher74]

Ryan howard asked for $10 million. You can bet Prince will be asking for at least that much. That's why I've said the Brewers' window of opportunity is smaller than people believe. the bush and hardy figures were a lot less than i expected them to ask for. hardy was an all star last year. Bush has had a couple of solid seasons. I guess we can be glad they are not free agents.

You've also said that Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Gallardo would be getting 10 million a year in arbitration and that Prince and Braun would be getting 20 million.

 

I think you're a bit of an alarmist. Our window's going to be open plenty long. As long as we can scout and draft well our window's going to be open. Do that, and you'll always be a playoff contender. Get lucky a time or two, especially with pitchers like the Twins did with Liriano(in trading him, not his health) and we did with Villanueva, and you can go from playoff contender, to WS contender.

 

Our window is far larger than the 2-3 years you believe it to be.

[Gopher74]

That's why when people said we had money this year I always said we have to look at the future when our players are gonna cost us. Probably a big reason we have a one year pen.

 

TLB looks to have it right. They will probably settle around the middle before the hearing. I was expecting Hardy to ask for rmore.

Yes, but it's not that easy to do this in baseball as opposed to other sports. In football the top contract is almost always going to increase year to year. Same in basketball. In baseball that's not the case. In fact, contracts have held relatively consistent the past 8 years. If you'll recall in the late 90's, early 2000's, there were huge deals being signed. Manny, Jeter, Brown, Dreifort, Park, Arod, Johnson, Helton, Bagwell, Pedro, Vlad guys like that getting 20 million per year in many cases.

 

Then there was a long period of time when some of the top players were getting 12-13 million a year. Lee, Konerko, Beltran, Ortiz, guys were signing for far less money. Then again last year when teams were flush with money from the sale of the Nationals, the MLBTV.com deal, the collective sharing deal, teams started signing players to bigger deals again. Zito, Carlos Lee, Soriano, ect...ect..ect...

Now the reason behind this according to many was the owners got together and decided to keep the price of contracts down which if was proven would land them in some very hot water, so it may just have been an "understanding", but the point is, contracts aren't going to just continue to increase every year. The average contract may, but the top deals will not. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if deals held relatively the same as they are now in the next 5-6 seasons.

It's just hard to tell, but I believe the theory that they're just going to continue to increase at the same rate as the last two years is very wrong IMO.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

I won't rehash my distaste for David Bush in this thread.

 

But on a team where your top players WILL command 8 figures per season in a few years, it seems foolish to pay your 7th starting pitcher over $3,000,000. With a (fingers-crossed) Sheets healthy, SoupCan, YoGa, Capuano, Villanueva, (and in case of injury/bad performance, Parra or Goosio Vargas) already in the rotation, Boosh may very well be forced to the overcrowded pen. So why pay him $3 million to be a mop-up guy?

 

It seems that when Doug brings someone in, like a Riske, a Torres, a Gagne...that they'll make the 25-man roster. Add those 3 to Shousie (that ultra-rare commodity - a lefty reliever) Vargas and Turnbow, and there's no room for guys with ERA's over 5, like Choate, McClung and Bush...especially pitchers with ERAs over 5 who demand $3,000,000!

 

I still wish Doug would have used this surplus of SP candidates and thinned the ranks a bit with a trade.

[rluzinski]

That's why I've said the Brewers' window of opportunity is smaller than people believe.

 

If the Brewers are doing well (playoffs), I can't imagine them not keeping most of the young guys through their arbitration years.

[danzig6767]

That's why I've said the Brewers' window of opportunity is smaller than people believe.

 

If the Brewers are doing well (playoffs), I can't imagine them not keeping most of the young guys through their arbitration years.

The farm system will play a big role in how long we stay a legit playoff contender. Obviously the team will hit a point where choices need to be made on which guys stay longer and which are traded off or just let go. If the farm system can plug holes as a Hardy, Prince, and/or Weeks leave, the team should be able to still win because i doubt we'll be spending much in free agency once our big league youth gets expensive. Jack Z has to continue working his magic so that a supply of quality cheap talent can replace departing expensive talent.

 

[trwi7]

It seems that when Doug brings someone in, like a Riske, a Torres, a Gagne...that they'll make the 25-man roster. Add those 3 to Shousie (that ultra-rare commodity - a lefty reliever) Vargas and Turnbow, and there's no room for guys with ERA's over 5, like Choate, McClung and Bush...especially pitchers with ERAs over 5 who demand $3,000,000!

You mean like Vargas? I know you hate Bush for some reason but if only one starting pitcher goes it should be Vargas, he's the worst of them.

[Gopher74]

Add those 3 to Shousie (that ultra-rare commodity - a lefty reliever) Vargas and Turnbow, and there's no room for guys with ERA's over 5, like Choate, McClung and Bush...especially pitchers with ERAs over 5 who demand $3,000,000!

You mean like Vargas? I know you hate Bush for some reason but if only one starting pitcher goes it should be Vargas, he's the worst of them.

Especially because he's complaining about Bush getting 3 million dollars because he had an ERA over 5.00 last year. And here comes Claudio Vargas...who...had an ERA over 5.00 and is making 3+ million dollars this year. I simply donot understand his logic.

 

Plus Dave Bush really has the ability to be a very good pitcher, a 3, and possibly a number 2 if he can put it all together. The guys I see who have that potential on the current 40 man are Sheets, Yo, and Parra, so he sure as heck shouldn't be just gotten rid of for the sake of getting rid of him. That's ridiculous.

 

[Big Reed]

Gopher, i don't see myself as an alarmist. Do you believe i'm trying to scare people by saying that prince and braun will be asking for $20 million a year several years from now? and that the majority of our core will be asking for $10 million? if the brewers are divison champions, it will be because of these players all having all star caliber seasons. And if all these players put up the numbers most brewer fans are expecting of them for the next 3-4 seasons, then yes, they will all be asking for at least $10 million a year. the only way these players will not be asking for $10 million is if they come back down to Earth and they don't duplicate their recent success.

 

Gopher, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the future of players' salaries. I think they will continue to climb at their current pace rather than leveling off.

 

Gopher- you are the optimist. I am the pessimist. Why am I so pessimistic? primarily because I've read thousands of posts from people such as yourself that were very optimistic about the brewers' future chances in the off season and the Spring, only to be let down every July/August. You could say I've lost hope/faith in the brewers. there will always be a key injury or a slump or bad coaching or something that comes between the brewers and success. I'd like to be as optimistic as you are Gopher, but I've seen too many bad breaks that I've come to expect they will happen every year.

[Gopher74]

Gopher, i don't see myself as an alarmist. Do you believe i'm trying to scare people by saying that prince and braun will be asking for $20 million a year several years from now? and that the majority of our core will be asking for $10 million? if the brewers are divison champions, it will be because of these players all having all star caliber seasons. And if all these players put up the numbers most brewer fans are expecting of them for the next 3-4 seasons, then yes, they will all be asking for at least $10 million a year. the only way these players will not be asking for $10 million is if they come back down to Earth and they don't duplicate their recent success.

Yea, they're likely to get those deals in Free Agency, but they're not going to get them their first years of arbitration as you suggested with the 10 million dollar numbers from Hart, Weeks, Hardy and company, and Prince and Braun will definitely NOT get 20 million in arbitration which is what I'm talking about.

Also, if those players have those kinds of seasons, then the Brewers are going to be winning. Winning equals more payroll.

Either way, you're entirely too hung up on this group of players and finances. You can continue to win while turning over portions of your roster as long as you continue to draft well and replace those players, and spend your money on the right players. Signing Weeks for example, using LaPorta to replace Prince, and then developing another OF'er can make up for the loss of Prince. That's just a for instance. Also I think our payroll is going to be much higher than you seem to think. No, we're not going to be able to keep all of our players, but given our current revenues, we're going to be able to maintain a nice payroll.

Also, the Brewers are going to get a huge bump in their next TV deal. Their games were the third highest rated games of all MLB teams last year. I'd hope that Mark A could put together his own TV channel for the Brewers, maybe with the help of Little Bro who's a TV producer.


Gopher, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the future of players' salaries. I think they will continue to climb at their current pace rather than leveling off.

And the fact is that they're not "continuing" to. They already did level off, and owners will ensure that they once again do. I made a case citing several examples of players who would be the highest paid in the game right now from the late 90's. I'm not sure what your argument is other than just, "no".

Gopher- you are the optimist. I am the pessimist. Why am I so pessimistic? primarily because I've read thousands of posts from people such as yourself that were very optimistic about the brewers' future chances in the off season and the Spring, only to be let down every July/August.

That is SUCH a cop out. First of all, we're not talking about the Brewers team. We're talking about the financial state of the game. Second, I don't know what Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, or any of those players have to do with the past failures of the Milwaukee Brewers. I also think it's ridiculous to say that "I'm negative because people said the Brewers would be good in the past and they weren't". It's kinda hard to argue when that's your logic.

You could say I've lost hope/faith in the brewers. there will always be a key injury or a slump or bad coaching or something that comes between the brewers and success.

Again, the players who failed, have nothing to do with the current Brewers.
Second, saying that you've always gotten your hopes up only to be disappointed is a little odd because I don't see what there has been to get your hopes up over the last 15 years save for last season when our team did fold. It was also a very young team and a team that's been upgraded in nearly every place possible.

. I'd like to be as optimistic as you are Gopher, but I've seen too many bad breaks that I've come to expect they will happen every year.

That's fine, but it just seems that you're kinda determined to make sure that everyone else is just as negative and pessimistic as you are.

In any event, this was suppose to be about the financial aspect of the game. I'm not sure what "injuries, coaching mistakes, or slumps" have to do with that.

[Fatter than Joey]

Probably a big reason we have a one year pen.

 

Except signing FAs year to year is an expensive proposition, the Brewers need to do a better job getting the farm arms to the bigs for their BP.

 

Especially because he's complaining about Bush getting 3 million dollars because he had an ERA over 5.00 last year. And here comes Claudio Vargas...who...had an ERA over 5.00 and is making 3+ million dollars this year. I simply donot understand his logic.

 

I think you whiffed on what GSP was trying to say. I don't recall anywhere GSP lauded the signing of Vargas, only that the Vargas signing happened before Bush, which is an initial indication that Vargas will be on the roster.

 

Plus Dave Bush really has the ability to be a very good pitcher, a 3, and possibly a number 2 if he can put it all together. The guys I see who have that potential on the current 40 man are Sheets, Yo, and Parra, so he sure as heck shouldn't be just gotten rid of for the sake of getting rid of him. That's ridiculous.

 

Again, you are reading too much into what was said.

 

Here is what GSP said:

 

I still wish Doug would have used this surplus of SP candidates and thinned the ranks a bit with a trade.

 

I am quite sure GSP was intentionally vague to indicate that he would have liked to see "some of our SP" traded not specifically Bush, but perhaps whatever SP would leave the Brewers in the best position after the deal.

 

And the fact is that they're not "continuing" to. They already did level off, and owners will ensure that they once again do.

 

I think the high-end contracts vary from year to year depending on the crop of FA talent, but your back-end of the roster guys are continuely getting paid more and more.

[Ennder]

Geno's point is completely moot since the Brewers already offered him arbitration. There is no choice in the matter right here, either we agree on a deal or someone else decides how much he makes. I just dont' get why you would fuss over it now. This decision was made weeks ago so why complain about it now?

[areacodes]

Again, you are reading too much into what was said.

 

Here is what GSP said:

 

I still wish Doug would have used this surplus of SP candidates and thinned the ranks a bit with a trade.

 

I am quite sure GSP was intentionally vague to indicate that he would have liked to see "some of our SP" traded not specifically Bush, but perhaps whatever SP would leave the Brewers in the best position after the deal.

I don't know if he was reading too much into what Geno said... As Geno also pointed out his "distaste" for Bush as well as listed Vargas as an option ahead of Bush.

 

 

I still wish Doug would have used this surplus of SP candidates and thinned the ranks a bit with a trade.

Geno, when did they impose a trade deadline in January? Because as far as I know the offseason isn't over and we could still thin out the SP ranks between now and the start of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bush has won the same number of games over the last 2 years as $40 million man Suppan and more than Sheets and Capuano. Plus he never missed a start due to injury. You can argue all you want about the relative ability of these guys, but the object is to win and he's won 24 times in 2 years.

 

He's still a bargain and likely to be just the 10th highest paid pitcher.

 

As for Hardy, if he hadn't missed most of 2006, he probably could get more than he's asking but that figures in.

[Ennder]

Winning is a team stat, not a pitcher stat so that argument is on thin ice. That is like judging a teams QB by how many wins the team had.

 

I'd say his ability is as good as Capuano and Vargas for sure though.

[JohnBriggs12]

You're point is noted (and fully expected) Ennder, but the object is still to win, and 300 wins is an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame. So you can't ignore it completely when judging a starting pitcher especially in terms of salary.

 

Your QB argument doesn't fly either. It's the most important position on the field and like pitcher almost always has some affect on the result. Winning QB's make more than losing QB's.

[Ennder]

You're point is noted (and fully expected) Ennder, but the object is still to win, and 300 wins is an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame. So you can't ignore it completely when judging a starting pitcher especially in terms of salary.

 

Your QB argument doesn't fly either. It's the most important position on the field and like pitcher almost always has some affect on the result. Winning QB's make more than losing QB's.

So Rex Grossman was a better QB than Brett Favre in 2006? Kerry Collins and Ty Detmer were two of the best QB's in football the year they faced off in the super bowl? W's are about the 10th most important stat you would want to look at when judging a pitcher and it is only that high because some of the stats overlap with each other.

 

I mean seriously, every year some ace has 12 wins and some scrub has 16 wins and it is largely out of either of their control. The pitcher goes out and there and throws the best he can but the TEAM wins or loses the game. Yeah if you let the other team score fewer runs and go deeper into games they are more likely to win so W's have some marginal value as a valuation method but it is pretty small value.

[brewizard]

As for Hardy, if he hadn't missed most of 2006, he probably could get more than he's asking but that figures in.

 

Yeah, but I've said it before and I'll say it again. I don't get it. The Brewers seem to be alienating Hardy.

 

Hardy injured himself on the field, trying to score from 2nd, when he really had no business attempting it on that play. You can blame Hardy, as the team management and financial officers seem to be doing, or you can blame the third base coach for sending him. It wasn't even close.

 

Yost, that, um, fine specimen of a manager, um... his first reaction to Hardy's injury was to say something of the effect: "That's what you get for being a slow white guy." From what I heard, Yost said that to him when Hardy was still on the ground. (A guy I know worked for the team that year.) What did Hardy do that was so wrong? Sacrifice for the team?

 

At least Hardy's injury happened on the field, and not on a motorbike, or under a deer carcass. That he came back and hit all those homers before June last year says something - I think - about Hardy's natural ability and desire. That he tired by July says something about the fact that he had missed most of 2006.

 

So what does the team do? They offer him just a one year contract worth 3/4 of what he's asking for, and basically threaten to take him to arbitration - where they will harp on his every flaw - namely - his injury history.

 

Okay, so the team is playing it tight with Hardy. However, over a few hundred thousand dollars now, they are alienating Hardy unnecessarily. Methinks Hardy, with more of a chip on his surgically repaired shoulder than ever, will have a terrific full season this year, and in the next offseason, he will ask for a correspondingly terrific raise. His contract next year will be much bigger and meaner to sign than this year. And, if the team doesn't try to keep him happy... he'll leave before Prince, Weeks, Braun or any of them. I believe that Hardy will be tougher to replace than we think.

 

But what do I know?

[DrWood]

Hardy isn't THAT good, and the brewer's offer is not an insult. the arbitration process basically has "seniority" built into it, and Hardy doesn't have that much seniority yet.