2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission

[TerraceReserved]

So here's the deal: we make projections on how we feel our Brewers players will do in the 08 season. When all projections are in, I'll average them and that average will be the official bf.net projection. At the end of the season (yes I know, a looong way away) I'll run a correlation study between our projections, official projections (Pecota, Zips, etc) and the actual regular season stats to see which system performed best.

These are the guidelines:

To make the predictions you can use any information you want - any stats, other projection systems, and most importantly, your own subjective and unique opinions on how you think players will perform.

The players that should be predicted: (the starters/important bullpen/ position players)
Fielder
Weeks
Hardy
Hall
Braun
Cameron
Hart
Kendall

Sheets
Gallardo
Villanueva
Suppan
Bush
Capuano
Gagne
Riske
Turnbow

For sake of simplicity I narrowed the stats down, which will hopefully be more inviting
Hitting - AVG/OBP/SLG

Pitching - WHIP, ERA


Hopefully there's a good response, as 10 predictions won't really say much, but 50+ will show a truer (is that a word?) average of bf.net and actually mean something.

 

 

 

 

Added false promise for persuasion purposes - b19

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Fielder - .290/.420/.610

Weeks - .260/.380/.510

Hardy -.265/.320/.440

Hall -.275/.335/.475

Braun - .300/.340/.570

Cameron -.265/.330/.450

Hart -.300/.360/.550

Kendall - .260/.325/.350

 

Sheets -1.10, 3.50

Gallardo - 1.25, 3.65

Villanueva - 1.35, 3.90

Suppan - 1.55, 4.80

Bush -1.30, 4.25

Capuano -1.35, 3.95

Gagne - 1.40, 4.50

Riske - 1.30, 4.10

Turnbow - 1.60, 5.20

[sbrylski]

I'm wondering if we'll end up needed a "homer factor" to scale down projections in the end. Let's hope we are informed fans...

 

 AVG OBP SLG
Fielder .289 / .406 / .574
Weeks .262 / .371 / .453
Hardy .269 / .329 / .446
Hall .261 / .344 / .500
Braun .290 / .347 / .523
Cameron .271 / .330 / .449
Hart .271 / .355 / .524
Kendall .269 / .369 / .335

ERA WHIP
Sheets 3.88 / 1.09
Gallardo 3.56 / 1.10
Villanueva 4.22 / 1.37
Suppan 4.68 / 1.49
Bush 3.98 / 1.21
Capuano 4.25 / 1.39
Gagne 3.10 / 1.07
Riske 3.90 / 1.45
Turnbow 4.90 / 1.55 

[TooLiveBrew]

Fielder - .300/.415/.610/1.025

Weeks - .265/.415/.525/.940

Hardy - .285/.345/.455/.800

Hall - .275/.345/.500/.845

Braun - .290/.355/.580/.935

Cameron - . 260/.345/.460/.805

Hart - .310/.365/.560/.925

Kendall - .270/.345/.335/.680

____________________________

 

Sheets - 1.30 WHIP / 3.50 ERA

Gallardo - 1.25/ 3.35

Villanueva (as SP) - 1.40 / 3.80

Suppan - 1.38 / 4.65

Bush - 1.30 / 4.50

Capuano - 1.35 / 4.40

Gagne - 1.30 / 3.50

Riske - 1.25 / 3.10

Turnbow - 1.48 / 4.50

[TerraceReserved]

Player AVG/OBP/SLG
Fielder - .295/.410/.605
Braun - .290/.350/.600
Hart - .297/.360/.538
Hardy - .270/.320/.440
Weeks - .280/.420/.530
Hall - .272/.336/.494
Kendall - .274/.359/.340
Cameron - .253/.351/.446

WHIP ERA
Suppan - 1.40 4.35
Sheets - 1.05 3.12
Cappy - 1.32 4.24
Gallardo - 1.19 3.15
Bush - 1.25 4.20
Villanueva - 1.29 4.45
Gagne - 1.23 3.44
Turnbow - 1.42 3.93
Riske - 1.29 3.56

 

 

 

 

 

[TerraceReserved]

I'm wondering if we'll end up needed a "homer factor" to scale down projections in the end. Let's hope we are informed fans...

I'm hoping there will be a numebr pessimistic projections to offset some of the homerism. But I think it's inevitable there will be some level of homerism in the results.

[Scooter1027]

HITTERS

Fielder .292 / .400 / .585

Weeks .275 / .395 / .465

Hardy .268 / .330 / .442

Hall .258 / .320 / .468

Braun .285 / .341 / .550

Cameron .255 / .345 / .458

Hart .290 / .350 / .505

Kendall .262 / .345 / .365

PITCHERS

Sheets 3.95 / 1.15

Gallardo 3.68 / 1.21

Villanueva 4.05 / 1.35

Suppan 4.85 / 1.48

Bush 4.49 / 1.27

Capuano 4.45 / 1.35

Gagne 3.25 / 1.12

Riske 3.92 / 1.29

Turnbow 4.45 / 1.38

[trwi7]

HITTERS:

 

Fielder .287/.408/.586

 

Weeks .263/.387/.485

 

Hardy .269/.325/.438

 

Hall .263/.334/.489

 

Braun .304/.363/.549

 

Cameron .264/.339/.447

 

Hart .296/.354/.528

 

Kendall .264/.341/.338

 

PITCHERS:

 

Sheets 3.38/1.13

 

Gallardo 3.64/1.24

 

Villanueva 3.96/1.34

 

Suppan 4.49/1.42

 

Capuano 4.32/1.31

 

Bush 4.29/1.22

 

Gagne 3.52/1.16

 

Riske 3.37/1.28

 

Turnbow 4.46/1.39

[TooLiveBrew]

TR - are you planning on actually calculating the average ratings/projections for each of these guys once you hit that 50-ish reply mark? I know you mentioned comparing with the actual end-of-the-year numbers, but I'm not sure exactly what you meant.

[lukevan]

Weeks .277 / .381 / .485 / .866

Hardy .261 / .325 / .460 / .785

Fielder .298 / .410 / .614 / 1.024

Braun .305 / .374 / .593 / .967

Hart .310 / .370 / .520 / .910

Cameron .271 / .348 / .480 / .828

Hall .264 / .326 / .490 / .816

Kendall .253 / .331 / .309 / .640

 

 

Sheets 1.15 3.71

Gallardo 1.19 3.90

Villanueva 1.34 4.37

Suppan 1.48 4.70

Capuano 1.28 4.48

 

Bush 1.20 4.10

Torres 1.41 4.35

Riske 1.18 3.23

Turnbow 1.29 3.09

Gagne 1.25 2.85

[brewtank34]

i'm noticing a trend...

No one is projecting that our line-up is going to produce over two .300 AVG. Hmmmm... We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender. I can see Braun w/a .318 AVG, Hart w/a .300 AVG, and Fielder w/a .310 AVG. If we can get Weeks to slide in there as well....watch out boys and girls. This could be a fun summer.

[rluzinski]

We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender.

 

So, if a guy hits .275/.350/.500, he's probably not going to help a team get to the big game? Don't fall into the BA trap!

[Robideaux]

No one is projecting that our line-up is going to produce over two .300 AVG. Hmmmm... We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender.

Number of starters hitting .300 :

2007 Red Sox: 3

2006 Cardinals: 1

2005 White Sox: 0

2004 Red Sox: 3

2003 Marlins: 2

2002 Angels: 2

2001 D-backs: 1

 

I didn't go back any further, but I think it is pretty clear at even a prima facie level that there is no magic number of .300 hitters a team needs to win a World Series. There are many other stats that are far more correlated with runs scored than batting average.

[TooLiveBrew]

This thread should be sticky-icky-icky-ized.

[rluzinski]

This thread should be sticky-icky-icky-ized.

 

Not only that, I think someone should write a one paragraph article that links to this thread.

[TerraceReserved]

TR - are you planning on actually calculating the average ratings/projections for each of these guys once you hit that 50-ish reply mark? I know you mentioned comparing with the actual end-of-the-year numbers, but I'm not sure exactly what you meant.

 

Yes, once the replies stop coming in, I'll average the stats for every player, which will be the official brewerfan.net projection. At the end of the season, I'll so how well our predictions correlated with the actual stats of players, along with Zips, Pecota, marcels etc. Maybe we'll actually see a strong correlation right with the actual projection systems, maybe not.

[GAME05]

HITTERS:

 

Fielder .288/..392/.592

 

Weeks .273/.380/.475

 

Hardy .262/.335/.442

 

Hall .265/.338/.510

 

Braun .287/.348/.585

 

Cameron .242/.339/.439

 

Hart .285/.363/.497

 

Kendall .244/.338/.335

 

PITCHERS:

 

Sheets 3.30/1.08

 

Gallardo 3.85/1.34

 

Villanueva 4.10/1.41

 

Suppan 4.85/1.42

 

Capuano 4.28/1.52

 

Bush 4.31/1.32

 

Gagne 4.10/1.38

 

Riske 3.37/1.28

 

Turnbow 3.91/1.25

[brewtank34]

Very nice Billy Jo... I will now eat my crow

 

http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9gnMiHsnJFHd.QAKFqjzbkF/SIG=12ff856f5/EXP=1200811628/**http%3A//gizmodo.com/assets/resources/2006/08/eating_crow.jpg

 

 

I'll admit that I do get caught up in the BA stat. But it's still a good one to rely on. Having a good BA is the "Gateway Drug" of having other reliably good stats. I'm sticking with my request of having three Brewers w/above or equal BA's to .300

I think that'll be a good start.

[Gopher74]

i'm noticing a trend...

No one is projecting that our line-up is going to produce over two .300 AVG. Hmmmm... We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender. I can see Braun w/a .318 AVG, Hart w/a .300 AVG, and Fielder w/a .310 AVG. If we can get Weeks to slide in there as well....watch out boys and girls. This could be a fun summer.

I don't think that's true at all. I don't think you "need'' any set amount of players hitting .300 to win a WS. I think you need players getting on base, and driving people in. I think we could win without a single player hitting .300 so long as Prince is a .290/.400/1.025, Braun's a .285/.350/.925 and Weeks is a .295/.425/1.000 player. Batting Averages doesn't mean an awful lot if you can compensate with a good OBP and SLG pct.

 

[Gopher74]

Rickie Weeks-.295/.420/.580

Mike Cameron-.265/.348/.440

Ryan Braun-.285/.345/.515

Prince Fielder-.312/.410/.610

Corey Hart-.300/.390/.515

Bill Hall-.270/.342/.475

JJ Hardy-.272/.321/.429

Jason Kendall-.239/.341/.399

---------------------------

Bench

Gabe Gross-.282/.365/.449

Craig Counsell-.239/.333/.368

Joe Dillon-.312/.375/.435

Mike Rivera-.209/.285/.355

Tony Gwynn Jr-.253/.300/.345

Vinny Rottino-.275/.345/.418

--------------------------------

Rotation

1-Ben Sheets-2.89 .95

2-Yovani Gallardo-3.18 1.17

3-Jeff Suppan-4.67 1.43

4-Carlos Villanueva-3.95 1.32

5-Chris Capuano-4.45 1.39

-------------------

Manny Parra-3.24 1.29

Dave Bush-4.53 1.15

Claudio Vargas-5.06 1.54

----------------------

Bullpen

CL-Eric Gange-2.88 1.01

SU-David Riske-2.78 1.30

7th-Derrick Turnbow-3.78 1.16

MR-Salomon Torres-2.59 1.19

MR-Guillermo Mota-4.98 1.52

Loogy-Brian Shouse-4.56 1.48

--------------------------------

Luis Pena-3.89 1.28

Mich Stetter-2.02 1.09

Steve Bray-6.15 1.89

 

96-66 1st Place In NLC

3-1 over the LAD in the Wild Card round.

4-2 Win over the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS.

4-3 win over the LAA in the World series

[sheetswannabe]

HITTERS:

 

Fielder .284/..403/.601

 

Weeks .271/.370/.485

 

Hardy .262/.335/.467

 

Hall .255/.328/.500

 

Braun .298/.363/.585

 

Cameron .266/.343/.439

 

Hart .310/.383/.503

 

Kendall .255/.341/.335

 

PITCHERS:

 

Sheets 3.21/1.11 **31 starts**

 

Gallardo 3.55/1.38

 

Villanueva 4.16/1.23

 

Suppan 4.91/1.38

 

Parra 4.33/1.33

 

 

 

Gagne 3.11/1.32

 

Riske 3.32/1.22

 

Turnbow 2.91/1.21 *Doesnt melt down 2nd half*

 

Torres 4.53/1.36

 

Mota 5.01/1.39

[Prince James]

I'm sticking with my request of having three Brewers w/above or equal BA's to .300

We actually had 3 last year:

 

Braun - .324

Dillon - .342

 

&

 

Wise - 1.000

 

 

On a more serious note, why are so many people kinda hot on Gross? I see him as a younger version of D. Miller.

[Ennder]

 AVG OBP SLG
Fielder .298 / .402 / .599
Weeks .261 / .374 / .462
Hardy .279 / .341 / .450
Hall .271 / .342 / .475
Braun .295 / .357 / .561
Cameron .272 / .340 / .481
Hart .281 / .344 / .527
Kendall .265 / .334 / .340

ERA WHIP
Sheets 3.48 / 1.17
Gallardo 3.46 / 1.18
Villanueva 4.36 / 1.37
Suppan 4.35 / 1.47
Bush 4.38 / 1.29
Capuano 4.15 / 1.36
Gagne 3.55 / 1.24
Riske 3.81 / 1.31
Turnbow 4.32 / 1.35 

[TerraceReserved]

Here's a spreadsheet with all of the projections thus far. It'll be updated when new projections come in.

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pyk99ZuXWKqcy9elt0DYyJQ&hl=en

[Fatter than Joey]

AVG OBP SLG

 

Fielder .273 / .378 / .480

 

Weeks .245 / .367 / .433

 

Hardy .266 / .312 / .422

 

Hall .271 / .322 / .466

 

Braun .275 / .321 / .512

 

Cameron .254 / .322 / .466

 

Hart .297 / .367 / .511

 

Kendall .212 / .319 / .322

 

 

 

ERA WHIP

 

Sheets 4.38 / 1.37

 

Gallardo 4.11 / 1.28

 

Villanueva 4.56 / 1.47

 

Suppan 4.79 / 1.57

 

Bush 5.11 / 1.59

 

Capuano 4.89 / 1.53

 

Gagne 4.25 / 1.42

 

Riske 3.11 / 1.21

 

Turnbow 4.87 / 1.67